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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    So many obstacles now to converting empty office buildings including old zoning laws, and the fear of lost equity in nearby homes to be but a few. Interesting read, but will probably be behind a NYTimes paywall. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
    “There is an aging office building on Water Street in Lower Manhattan where it would make all the sense in the world to create apartments. The 31-story building, once the headquarters of A.I.G., has windows all around and a shape suited to extra corner units. In a city with too little housing, it could hold 800 to 900 apartments. Right across the street, one office not so different from this one has already been turned into housing, and another is on the way.
    But 175 Water Street has a hitch: Offices in the financial district are spared some zoning rules that make conversion hard — so long as they were built before 1977. And this one was built six years too late, in 1983.”
  • CD Renewals
    On one hand, I'm an enthusiastic proponent of CDs at 5%+. It's fun (for weirdos like us) to get that guaranteed money. No risk, no losses, no stress.
    OTOH, being realistic, real returns even before, but especially after taxes are not going to be much over zero. I'm assuming inflation rates in the 3-4% range.
    Yes, one is keeping up with, even "beating" inflation -- no small feat -- and doing this effortlessly and for free, but there's not going to be any compound growth, one isn't going to be making any money.
    Accordingly, about 10% in CDs seems about right (no bonds).
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    @DavidF, RSP is still trailing SPY in your chart.
    Think over a longer term, 5 years and longer, RSP outperforms that of SPY.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    As a father I do think about the economy that my kids are facing. The younger two (32 and 25), who rent, are for the most part shut out of the home-buying market and it’s likely to be some time before they’d even consider buying. Among my three siblings and me, two occupy a distinctly lower economic rank than did our parents or in-laws. I grew up believing that I and my generation would do better than our parents. It has not worked out that way for my sibs, nor does it seem to be the case for my kids. Inflation figures and price increases are so much background noise compared to the main narrative which is trying to predict (optimistically because it’s July 4th) where our citizens are headed.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    Michael Santoli, Senior Markets Commentator at CNBC, has been pointing out the relative outperformance lately of the equal-weight S&P 500.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?spy,rsp
    The chart seems to show the opposite.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, you are getting great inputs from many posters here on your asset allocation. Target date fund’s glide path provides a good starting point for the major asset class allocations, and I use them as a reference point, just as @Observant1 is doing. I am several years older than you are and am approaching retirement too.
    Several years ago, I gradually reduced stock exposure gradually to a 50/25/25 (stock/bond/cash) allocation. This conservative allocation was helpful to navigate through the difficult year of 2022 when both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously. This year has been the quite the reversal as both stocks and bonds move up amidst of banking crisis. Now that the bulk of rate hike is behind us, I am more optimistic that bonds will have more meaningful gain this year with respect to yields (4-5%) and some capital appreciation on the bond prices. T bills, CDs and money market are yielding 5%. And that is good enough for me.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    At 63, my wife and I determined we had reached our “number,” and decided to reduce our equity allocation while both of us were still working. Since we were aware stocks could drop by 50%, we figured to reduce our possible equity loss by allocating 35% (potential 17.5% drop). Of course we missed out on some equity expansion these last 7 years (now 70 and retired 6 yrs) but we slept better.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Roy, the nice thing about investing is the fact that very seldom you can find exceptional funds which defy common concepts such as low expense + index do best over a longer time.
    PRWCX is one of them. In the past I used PIMIX(2010-2017), SGIIX,OAKBX,FAIRX(2000-1 to 2009).
    I started reducing my portfolio in 90+% in stocks, in 2013, 5 years prior to retirement. Most of the bond portion was in PIMIX. Since 2017 (retirement=2018) I have been using about 90% bond OEFs, but I'm a unique bond OEF trader.
    I think 50/50 is a good choice. I would select between the following funds:
    Moderate allocation=PRWCX
    More conservative=WBAIX/WBALX....CFTAX(Tactical-increase/decrease stock %)...FASMX
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    @Roy,
    I'm the same age as you. I started reducing my equity exposure gradually in 2020 or so.
    Last year the stock market "helped" to decrease my equity allocation a bit! :-(
    Portfolio on 12-31-2019
    73% Stocks
    22% Bonds
    5% Cash
    Portfolio on 06-30-2023
    66.0% Stocks
    19.4% Bonds (DOXIX & TIPS)
    14.4% Cash (MM funds)
    I periodically review Vanguard and T. Rowe Price target-date fund portfolios for reference.
    Mostly, I pay attention to the overall stock/bond split. I don't attempt to replicate these target-date funds.
    For example, I don't have dedicated exposure to global/foreign bonds, convertibles, or preferred stocks.
    Portfolio allocations for Vanguard Target Retirement and T. Rowe Price Retirement funds are listed below.
    Please note that T. Rowe Price offers three distinct target-date fund series.
    VTTVX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 32.8%
    Foreign Stock - 21.7%
    US Bond - 28.9%
    TIPS - 4.2%
    Foreign Bond - 12.4%
    TRRHX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 39.11%
    Foreign Stock - 18.44%
    US Bond - 25.88%
    Foreign Bond - 10.45%
    Cash - 5.31%
    Convertibles - 0.51%
    Preferred Stock - 0.25%
    Other 0.05%
    VTHRX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 38.2%
    Foreign Stock - 25.3%
    US Bond - 25.5%
    TIPS - 0.0%
    Foreign Bond - 11.0%
    TRRCX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 46.16%
    Foreign Stock - 21.83%
    US Bond - 18.32%
    Foreign Bond - 7.97%
    Cash - 4.80%
    Convertibles - 0.58%
    Preferred Stock - 0.30%
    Other 0.04%
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    I had been shifting to more bonds and less equities between 2020-21. Then the spam hit the fan.
    I know you love PRWCX. Me, too. In spite of myself, it has grown to 39 percent of my total right now. I try to follow the "rules of thumb," but not with much effort. Those "rules" don't apply to our house in many ways.
    I'm at 50 US stocks.
    8 foreign stocks
    35 bonds.
    ...The rest is "other" or cash held by the funds. Oops, I do own a few single stocks, now.
    I'm 69 later this month.
    Everyone's situation is different. I'm investing primarily for my primary heirs: my son and my wife---his stepmother. He is all of 30, come October. She just turned 50. And she will go back to the Philippines when I'm gone. Much cheaper to live there. We already have a new house already built on the property where she grew up. It was necessary. The old one just fell down into decay.
    One of my biggest priorities is to continue to grow the portion of the portfolio that is not tax-sheltered. Just to increase the amount that is easier for her to get at without all the blessed, lovely, amazing, beautiful, fart-brained tax rules. (I know that INHERITED IRAs are a horse of a different color.)
    In the meantime, I'm not adding any stocks from foreign lands. I have seen the brokerage report to me that a chunk of the dividends "were taxed and held at the source." NHYDY. I don't want to be paying foreign governments, when my portfolio can make money HERE, and because of our specific circumstances, we've owed zero tax for many years, anyhow. I'll hold onto Norsk Hydro. It's been good to me, though the share price has lately dropped. Aluminum. They even mine their own bauxite. And green energy. And they're trying trying trying to buy a Polish recycling outfit. One of the largest aluminum concerns in the world.
    Bond funds: yes. I bought junk at just the wrong time. With patience, I'm seeing it rise, now. The dividends are better than the safer stuff, so I'm riding it back up. My foray into ETFs has been less than satisfactory. I choose-----against my best interest, maybe---- to stay with TRP. Their trading platform and rules can suck spooge, I've found out. ("If you're not going to let me use the "Good Till Canceled" option, you maybe perhaps ought to LET ME KNOW!!!!!.... I.T. doink-brains.) .... With a $5k minimum to trade non-TRP funds, I'll stick with the best of TRP's mediocre bond lineup. So, when I sell my ETFs, that will go into PRSNX. What I already own bond-wise (in T-IRA) is TUHYX and PRCPX.
    Break a leg! My junk is performing very well. But maybe you don't want to own junk. LOTS of places have better bond funds than TRP. I hope you find them. :)
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    I should have explained that it was my1993 Nissan 300ZX. Neither our Accord nor our Odyssey would stoop so low as to not start. The dealer, who has a seasoned Z mechanic, could not replicate the problem. The service manager drove it around for a while, pronounced it trouble-free and returned it to me no charge. He got to drive a 5-speed convertible and said he thoroughly enjoyed his day. I got to pay $150 for a 3-mile tow. Every now and then the starter fails to catch, but it functions if I put a little cognac in the tank to relax its nerves.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    No matter what the retirees who are the majority of posters here think, economic well being in the U.S. is not just about the inflation rate. Jobs matter too: https://nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html
    Back in the 1970s, Arthur Okun, an economist who had been a policy adviser to Lyndon Johnson, suggested a quick-and-dirty way to assess the nation’s economic condition: the “misery index,” the sum of inflation and unemployment. It was and is a crude, easily criticized measure. The measurable economic harm from unemployment, for instance, is much higher than that from inflation. Yet the index has historically done a quite good job of predicting overall economic sentiment.
    So it seems worth noting that the misery index — which soared along with inflation during 2021 and the first half of 2022 — has plunged over the past year. It is now all the way back to its level when President Biden took office.
    This remarkable turnaround raises several questions. First, is it real? (Yes.) Second, will ordinary Americans notice? (They already have.) Third, will they give Biden credit? (That’s a lot less clear.)
    The plunge in the misery index reflects both what didn’t happen and what did. What didn’t happen, despite a drumbeat of dire warnings in the news media, was a recession. The U.S. economy added four million jobs over the past year, and the unemployment rate has remained near a 50-year low.
    What did happen was a rapid decline in inflation. But is this decline sustainable? You may have seen news reports pointing out that “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been “sticky,” suggesting that improvement on the inflation front will be only a temporary phenomenon.
    But just about every economist paying attention to the data knows that the traditional measure of core inflation has gone rotten, because it’s being driven largely by the delayed effects of a surge in rents that ended in mid-2022. This surge, by the way, was probably caused by the rise in remote work triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic rather than by any Biden administration policy.
    Alternative measures of core inflation that exclude shelter by and large show a clear pattern of disinflation; inflation is still running higher than it was before the pandemic, but it has come down a lot. If you really work at it, it’s still possible to be pessimistic about the inflation outlook, but it’s getting harder and harder. The good news about inflation, and about the economy as a whole, does look real.
    But are people noticing this improvement? Traditional measures of economic sentiment have become problematic in recent years: Ask people how the economy is doing, and their response is strongly affected both by partisanship and, I believe, by the narratives conveyed by the news media. That is, what people say about the economy is, all too often, what they think they’re supposed to say.
    But if you ask Americans more specific questions, such as whether now is a good time to find a quality job, they typically say yes. At the same time, their expectations about future inflation have declined substantially.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Just one model based on age. Take with a grain of salt.
    Age-based portfolio model / https://www.schwab.com/retirement-portfolio
    A quick search of 5 or 6 other websites seems to pretty much find agreement with the model I linked. There are many other factors to consider of course. I linked this simply as just one example of what is out there. Personally, my 403B was 100% in global equities until about age 50 when I began sharply pulling back.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.
    Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.
    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    It’s not just “stuff” that has risen in price. Services also. Car towing to the repair shop was more than double what I paid 3-4 years ago, to say nothing of the big check I just wrote to the septic tank pumper, 40-50% higher than five years ago. I am, however, grateful to have someone to haul my s#&t away!
    - You mean that Accord bit the dust?
    - Yep. That’s a job I’d not want - at any price.
    :)
  • CD Renewals
    I bought a 6 month CD today from Wells Fargo, that pays 5.3%. I do still have some money remaining from the recent CDs that matured, and have 2 additional CDs maturing in a few weeks, but I have not made a decision what I will do with those monies. For now, I prefer to stay shorter term with my investments, and see what happens when/if the FEDs hike rates a couple more times, as is widely expected.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.
    Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    It’s not just “stuff” that has risen in price. Services also. Car towing to the repair shop was more than double what I paid 3-4 years ago, to say nothing of the big check I just wrote to the septic tank pumper, 40-50% higher than five years ago. I am, however, grateful to have someone to haul my s#&t away!
  • July MFO Has Been Posted
    Short-term redemption fees are preferable over higher expense ratios.
    GoodHaven is a concentrated fund (24 holdings, 65% in top 10) with low turnover.
    Excessive redemptions can be very detrimental to this fund's strategy.
    If an investor is unwilling to commit to a mutual fund for 60 days,
    perhaps they will be better served with an ETF?
  • July MFO Has Been Posted
    July MFO covered GOODX. For those interested in exploring this fund, it has a 2% short term redemption fees <60 days and is a TF fund at the major brokerages I checked. While I understand why a fund would have a 2% lock up fees, I would rather they charge me a higher ER than a 2% lock up fees.
    Over the past 3 years, the fund has gathered close to zero inflows while delivering 80% in cumulative total return. Given the fund's recent good performance, and if we were to believe that the bear market is over, the fund should not worry about short term redemptions and can gather a lot of AUM (currently below <$125M) if they were to get rid of the lock up fees. Prior to the change in fund strategy three years ago, the fund had approx $70M in AUM, after steady outflows for years. I always thought short term redemption fees are a good substitute for closing a fund. Is that what the fund manager trying to accomplish?
    May be @David (David Snowball) could convey the above to the fund manager or invite them to read this post.
    P.S.: I currently do not have a dedicated mid cap fund but would invest in GOODX if there was no STR fees.