About the 4% rule IF one wants to follow Bengen's original paper, then one should (I think) be using large cap domestic stocks and intermediate term Treasuries. (He is clear about intermediate term treasuries but says only "large cap" stocks.)
These days, many allocation funds invest a significant fraction of their equity sleeve abroad. IMHO that's not a bad thing, but it is different. A related "problem" is that allocation funds often invest some money into small cap stocks. While this is different from Bengen's original work, it could be an improvement:
Bill Bengen ...has increased the withdrawal rate he uses on his own retirement portfolio to 4.7%, largely because of the upside he’s gained by adding small and microcap asset classes to his portfolio, he told the Bogleheads Live podcast this week. [Dec 2022]
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/creator-of-4--rule-says-new-withdrawal-target-is-4-7-71026.htmlThat page goes on to say that these days, Bengen says that "the optimum stock allocation that allows the highest withdrawal rate over the long term is between
55% and 60% over the long term."
That suggests that you might look at 60/40 funds, of which there are many. As to what Bengen himself is doing, rather than using his stated static allocation "he uses a third-party service that recommends changes to his asset allocation based on perceived changes in the marketplace."
In short, consider looking at funds closer to 60/40. VBIAX (0.07% ER) is a good starting point if ER is paramount, or VSMGX (0.12% ER) to add foreign exposure.
FWIW, here's a
portfolio visualizer comparison of three 60/40 funds: AOR, VSMGX, and VBIAX. over roughly ten years (PV limitation). Starts with $10K, $400 (4%) annual withdrawal (inflation adjusted).
What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds? "Isn't Intl investing really a currency play on a weaker dollar...which might be in our near future, no?"
Foreign currency weakness / strength against the dollar affects returns but there is more to the story.
S&P 500 companies derive a significant portion of their revenue overseas.
However, some excellent companies are domiciled outside of America.
I would like to own these companies.
Foreign stocks may provide diversification during longer periods
where S&P 500 performance is dismal (e.g., 2000 - 2009).
Of course, diversification works both ways.
Foreign stocks have lagged U.S. stocks for approximately 15 years.
This is an unusually long period and U.S. / foreign stock outperformance tends to run in cycles.
About the 4% rule @larryB,
You can always combine AOR and AOM and let it sit. Not the highest returns, but it might suit your guideline.
I myself aim toward
50-
50 Fido mm and JQUA (or QLTY, or TCAF, or simply VONG or VONE, and I'm not saying that they are that similar).
Nonresponsively, when Fido mm declines under ... ? 4% ? ... I might reconsider the above and move toward some combo of FBALX (or FPACX) and FMSDX.
kiss and all that.
About the 4% rule William Bengen published
Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part IIIin the Dec. 1997 Journal of Financial Planning. His recommended range for stock allocation
was between
50% and 7
5% for a 6
5 year-old investor.
"Because withdrawal rates within the recommended range of stocks are essentially equal,
they are not very useful in selecting stock allocation.
For another view of the matter, consider Chart 10, which depicts the nominal wealth built up
in a portfolio after 30 years, for a retiree who began withdrawing four percent the first year.
The two stock allocations displayed, 50 percent and 75 percent, represent the extreme ends
of the 'recommended range' for this investor at age-65 retirement." PDF1Edit/Add: Bengen published
Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part IVin the May 2001 Journal of Financial Planning. Two alternative withdrawal strategies are explored.
PDF2
About the 4% rule Simplicity? Stable price? Forget 4% withdrawal, how about 5%+ without selling anything? Money market fund.
If it looks to good to be true it .........
About the 4% rule I believe the 1994 paper called for 50/50 and adjust withdrawals for inflation.
Stashing cash, Summer 2024 Thanks for the info. USSH is a new fund, inception date 3/12/24, with $495K asset.
Pros and cons exist in either ETF or treasury approaches. Once can extend the duration of the ladder % from 6 months to 1 to 3 year treasury. Also keep some in money market.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Increased cash from around 12% to 12.65% today. Sold a few shares of NSRGY and FOF. (Anticipating some significant cash withdrawals before year’s end.)
Stashing cash, Summer 2024 For taxable account, you can consider USSH, WisdomTree 1-3 yr Laddered Treasury, ER 0.15. Same as USFR.
We are shifting to 1 and 2 year treasuries as they are rising in recent weeks.
With less than $1M AUM and an average daily volume of < 300s that sounds kinda dangerous if you ever want/need to exit it quickly to use the cash elsewhere. UTWO might be a better option if you want more liquidity (and AUM) as a cash substitute --- albeit it wouldn't be laddered.
Stashing cash, Summer 2024 For taxable account, you can consider USSH, WisdomTree 1-3 yr Laddered Treasury, ER 0.15. Same as USFR.
We are shifting to 1 and 2 year treasuries as they are rising in recent weeks.
About the 4% rule If I took the 4% rule literally,,,, which I definitely don’t, what would be a low cost 50/ 50 ETF that follows Bengen’s rules? I understand one could use the appropriate equity and bond ETF but let’s say I wanted the ultimate simplicity. As for me I have no interest or need for a 50% equity exposure but the 4 % rule is talked about so often and most of those discussions never mention the exposure that must be maintained. Come to think about it that might an idea: the 4% solution ETF.
What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds? maybe slightly off topic but a couple thoughts/comments;
See Thornburg article dated May 17, "forget mag 7 and look at Euro fantastic 5"...SAP, ASML, AstraZen, LVMH, Novo...has actually outperformed since Jan 2022...hmm, no kidding, really?.
Isn't Intl investing really a currency play on a weaker dollar...which might be in our near future, no?
I've got monies in TSUMX Thornburg Summit Fund...multi asset...hold intl stocks and bonds to some degree...
Good Luck and Good Health to ALL,
Baseball Fan
What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds? Passive works when beta is eating alpha. I think the bigger lesson is stop doing what is not working, not just in investing. But it is difficult to quit bad habits, like picking up cigarette butts or deep values. If inclined to sticking with convictions that are not working, at least go with a proven manager / fund and do not try to do it yourself with passive funds.
What do you mean when you say "beta is eating alpha?" I have been running this over in my mind for a while, and I'm not getting anywhere on my own. It doesn't help that M* hasn't updated their alpha and beta numbers.
I'm talking to myself in the following, but anyone can jump in. :) Passive is a funny term. IHDG seems pretty darn active in its
thesis:
IHDG screens for quality and growth through a variety of factors: expected earnings growth, return-on-equity and return-on-assets. Selected securities are then weighted according to dividends paid over the preceding year. The index rebalances annually so that no individual security has a weight greater than 5% and each country or sector has a maximum weight of 20%. The portfolio is hedged for currency fluctuations against the USD. In employing this hedging strategy, the index uses forward currency contracts to mitigate risks associated with the movements of foreign currencies relative to USD.
I should add that Devo's post was a fun read. Looking forward to the next article.
Big drop in the 10-year Treasury in recent days Just noticed - it’s at 4.366% as of 9 AM today. That’s down from over 4.5% last week. Was off sharply yesterday. Don’t pay a lot of attention to bond funds. My two “bond” holdings, PRIHX and LSST both gravitate to the short end of the curve. It hasn’t escaped me that PRWCX has suffered this year due to its bond holdings, as have virtually any other funds with exposure.
Mainly posted FYI