Where ?

Was that question for me?
I don't know why anyone is concerned about the 4% "rule" nowadays when MMs and many bond funds pay MORE than 4%. You can get 4-5%+ and you don't have to sell anything.
Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/5/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.0%, above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (29.0%, below average); bearish became the middle sentiment (32.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +7.0% (average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (119+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (34+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. ECB to cut rates today. EMs - Claudia SCHEINBAUM is the new President of Mexico; Narendra MODI will continue as Prime Minister of India for a 3rd term. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1505/thread

Special edition of The Week In Charts - The State of the Markets June 2024.
The state of the markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:21 Topics
00:34 Stocks
10:25 Bonds/Fed
22:33 Real Estate/Housing
31:58 Commodities
36:46 Currencies
39:09 Crypto
43:02 Intermarket
49:53 Economy
56:03 Free Wealth Path Analysis
Video

@Low_Tech. Cool idea. What are the odds of that working for a thirty year retirement?

I wouldn't expect ANY one thing to hold for a 30-year income. But for the time being, I have 20% of my retirement in a MM fund. If/when it drops to 4.5% or less, I will move that money somewhere else.

@stillers I'm with you on FSELX. It was the first purchase in my wife's Roth IRA back in 1998. Bought some more two years later. Needless to say, she's happy with the 25-year tax-free growth.
It's also my biggest holding in my Rollover IRA.
I have some ASML in my Roth IRA.
Sometimes it's a wild ride, but I'm patient. Aggressively so, for an octogenarian.
When our teenage grandson became interested in investing a couple of years ago, I insisted he buy SMH first.
David

”The shares of the Santa Clara, California-based firm have rallied roughly 147% this year, adding about $1.8 trillion … On Wednesday, (NVDA) shares rose 5.2% to close at a record $1,224.40, pushing the market value to more than $3 trillion and overtaking Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the process.”
Excerpt from Bloomberg Media - June 5, 2024

IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.

Matt Levine, Bloomberg Opinion
Money Stuff

Not sure how we can keep pulling up the market without software names and small caps going up.

Fund-flows into the S&P500 and QQQ's seem to supply an endless line of buyers into the mega cap names represented within those indexes. I'm being more cautious now however.

please inform; given testfol AA tool is limited to 5 tickers and has no optimizer, it seems pretty useless.
am also interested in hearing re: PortVis if anyone optimizes for anything other than sharpe. there does not seem to be a function that suggests noncorrelated tickers to improve the portfolio, correct? nor a function that tracks correlation over multiple periods ?

SEC loses in court to hedge funds.
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/06/05/sec-hedge-fund-fee-disclosure-rule-struck-down-by-u-s-court/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

NASDAQ up 1.5% as of 1:20 PM
+1 if you’re riding the wave. Me too old & conservative to partake - though some limited exposure thru funds.
ADD - Make that 2% at the close (NASDAQ @ 17,188)

Rob Berger discusses the 4% rule and how to wrestle with retirement success.

Bought 1000s Spire-A shares for income ... callable in October.
Bought 500s TRP following yesterday's shareholder vote on Southbow spinoff. Not sure I'll keep the spinoff shares but I like TC's pipeline footprint.
(I may move PBA and TRP over to my new Fido account if they'll let me reinvest Canadian dividends, which Schwab won't.)

Strong dollar hurts foreign funds held by the US investors and also the US multinationals' earnings.
There are global mega-cap ETFs like IOO; note post GFC divergence.
https://tinyurl.com/495xv6yj

Sorry being late to this discussion. Our oversea exposure is about 7-8%, with mostly actively managed funds and ETFs. In taxable account, VEA and DIVI are the only one we use and they are tax efficient.
1. For large cap developed market, ARTKX and FMIJX are the main vehicles.
2. Lately CCGO was added to gain exposure to the “growth” stocks in Europe as BF mentioned the “Fantastic Five”. Capital fund does a good job so far managed the downside risk than that of Vanguard Int’l growth (we moved on when Ian Anderson retired).
3. For EM exposure, we have 2% and it is getting smaller; largely invested in Seafarer funds with Andrew Foster and his teams.
4. The only stake on int’l small caps we have is Seafarer EM Value.
5. We continue to seek actively managed funds and ETFs with lower ER; preferable less than 1%.
6. Back in the 80-90’s when US currency was less dominated to other currencies, many international funds often out-performed the US counter-parts. This has changed in the last 10 years as it reflects in our lowered exposure.
7. In our 529 plan, Vanguard Total International stock index fund is used as part of the portfolio but we have limited choice there. Preferably, the Total Stock Market index would be better.

Thanks @yogibb. We will have some leftover 529 $.
One of our kid is thinking about graduate school or others, so the remaining fund will be used up (perhaps we need to invest to help out). As parents we are thankful our kids will not incur debt with student loans when they graduate college.
We will use up one of the I bond for qualified college expense later this year. I bonds have too many restrictions that we now use treasuries instead.

IF one wants to follow Bengen's original paper, then one should (I think) be using large cap domestic stocks and intermediate term Treasuries. (He is clear about intermediate term treasuries but says only "large cap" stocks.)
These days, many allocation funds invest a significant fraction of their equity sleeve abroad. IMHO that's not a bad thing, but it is different. A related "problem" is that allocation funds often invest some money into small cap stocks. While this is different from Bengen's original work, it could be an improvement:

Bill Bengen ...has increased the withdrawal rate he uses on his own retirement portfolio to 4.7%, largely because of the upside he’s gained by adding small and microcap asset classes to his portfolio, he told the Bogleheads Live podcast this week. [Dec 2022]

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/creator-of-4--rule-says-new-withdrawal-target-is-4-7-71026.html
That page goes on to say that these days, Bengen says that "the optimum stock allocation that allows the highest withdrawal rate over the long term is between 55% and 60% over the long term."
That suggests that you might look at 60/40 funds, of which there are many. As to what Bengen himself is doing, rather than using his stated static allocation "he uses a third-party service that recommends changes to his asset allocation based on perceived changes in the marketplace."
In short, consider looking at funds closer to 60/40. VBIAX (0.07% ER) is a good starting point if ER is paramount, or VSMGX (0.12% ER) to add foreign exposure.
FWIW, here's a portfolio visualizer comparison of three 60/40 funds: AOR, VSMGX, and VBIAX. over roughly ten years (PV limitation). Starts with $10K, $400 (4%) annual withdrawal (inflation adjusted).

"Isn't Intl investing really a currency play on a weaker dollar...which might be in our near future, no?"
Foreign currency weakness / strength against the dollar affects returns but there is more to the story.
S&P 500 companies derive a significant portion of their revenue overseas.
However, some excellent companies are domiciled outside of America.
I would like to own these companies.
Foreign stocks may provide diversification during longer periods
where S&P 500 performance is dismal (e.g., 2000 - 2009).
Of course, diversification works both ways.
Foreign stocks have lagged U.S. stocks for approximately 15 years.
This is an unusually long period and U.S. / foreign stock outperformance tends to run in cycles.