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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Active Management and Superstars
    A good but incomplete history of Fidelity and its famous star managers.
    Post Tsai, a young Ned Johnson III (of course related to Johnson II) ran a private/in-house Fido fund called Magellan from 1963-71 with quite spectacular performance. Ned would have been a star manager if he just stuck to being a fund portfolio manager, but he had other and bigger ideas. After a few years, Magellan (now a listed FMAGX) was handed over to Peter Lynch (1977-90) who became even a bigger star than Ned Johnson III, and in fact, among the most famous portfolio managers ever. But to the regrets of many, Lynch decided to retire at 48 and is still with Fidelity as consultant and mentor.
    Actually, Lynch wanted to retire even earlier, but the crash of 1987 intervened. Lynch didn't want to leave the "huge" fund ($20 billion, peanuts by today's standards) that was under heavy redemption to somebody else, so he stuck around for a while until 1990. He lamented later that the management of Magellan under redemption was very different from what he was used to during its explosive growth period.
    Magellan's assets did peak at $100 billion, but has languished under managers that followed Lynch; the AUM is only $27 billion now. An ETF FMAG hasn't yet reached $50 million in 2.5 years. That is another lesson - don't count on past history or successes for the ETFs.
  • Active Management and Superstars
    An excellent article by William Bernstein, who I suspect, travels through these discussion boards often:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/investing-pillars-superstar-portfolio-managers-trap-fa7d7fe4?mod=hp_LEAD_5
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    Not a wage-price spiral but a profit-price spiral or "greedflation" perhaps: https://cnbc.com/2023/04/21/why-economists-are-no-longer-so-worried-about-a-wage-price-spiral.html
    Profit-price spiral
    There has also been increased discussion about how those corporate profits are contributing to inflation.
    In a recent note, economists at ING looked at Germany, where inflation is increasingly a demand-side issue. While cautioning that so-called “greedflation” cannot be proven and there are variations by sector, they wrote that there are signs companies have been hiking prices ahead of the rise in their input costs, and that “from the second half of 2021 onward, a significant share of the increase in prices can be explained by higher corporate profits.” They call this a profit-price spiral.....
    Not the 1970s
    ....Richard Portes, professor of economics at London Business School, told CNBC there is “no serious risk” of a wage-price spiral in the U.K., U.S., or major European countries, however. He also cited reduced union power in the private sector as a notable change from the 1970s.
    “If you look at core inflation in the U.S., rentals, housing, have been driving that. That’s got nothing to do with wages — with rentals, it’s more sensitive to interest rate rises,” he added.
    There is evidence — including from the IMF — that wage-price spirals aren’t common. The IMF research found very few examples in advanced economies since the 1960s of “sustained acceleration” in wages and prices, with both instead stabilizing, keeping real wage growth “broadly unchanged.” As with so much in economics, the idea that wage-price spirals even exist has also been challenged.
    For Kamil Kovar, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, the scenario was always seen as a risk, not necessarily likely. But he, too, said that as time progresses it has become clear that it is not happening.
    Wages are likely to increase fairly rapidly for Europe, but there’s “so much scope for wages to catch up with prices, to get to a spiral situation we would need something totally different to happen,” he said. The ECB expects nominal wage growth, not adjusted for inflation, of around 5% this year.
    Real wages in Europe are so much lower than before the pandemic they could increase another 10% without going into a “danger zone,” Kovar said; while in the U.S. they are roughly equal but exiting the risky zone.
    When comparing the current situation to the 1970s, Kovar said there were some similarities such as an energy shock; back then it was in oil, whereas this time it is bigger and broader, impacting electricity and gas too. There has also been a more rapid drop in energy prices as this shock has subsided.
    And again, he noted the ongoing growth in corporate profits and the absence of powerful unions as yet more factors for why this time it’s different.
    “It’s an example of how we are slaves to our historical parallels,” he said. “We potentially overreact even if the underlying situation is different.”
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    I am risk adverse by nature, but without a pension ( except SS) I knew my wife and I would have to depend on our investments for living expenses, vacations weddings etc when we retired.
    Much of what I read pointed out that retiring into a multi year bear market would be a big problem, so we reduced equities after 60, and two years into retirement we are about 40%. If there is a significant pull back will increase it. After two or three years into retirement I am more comfortable knowing our basic living expenxes etc.
    @sma3 - While some esteemed posters appear to disagree with you, the expert from Schwab I linked earlier would appear to agree:
    As you put together your retirement portfolio, you also need to think about the role your savings will play in your overall income plan. For example, how much income do you expect from guaranteed sources like annuities, pensions, and Social Security? - "If these guaranteed income streams will generate enough income to cover the majority of your expenses, you might be able to maintain a more aggressive stance with your portfolio well into retirement … Conversely, if you'll rely on your portfolio for the majority of your income, you'll need to take a more balanced approach with your investments”
    https://www.schwab.com/retirement-portfolio
    Having both pension and SS, I view investments mainly as a growth asset - an enhancement to an already comfortable subsistence. If it were all I had to live on, I’d probably view them more as an income generator. Those aren’t mutually exclusive. But it does, I think, highlight two very different perspectives. The other side of the coin is that folks with pensions paid for that during their working years, whether by regular payroll deductions or by working for lower compensation than they might have received elsewhere where a pension did not exist. So it’s likely the “non-pensioners” retired with a much greater nest-egg to safeguard - provided skill-sets were similar.
    -
    PS - I’m actually somewhat more aggressive today than when I retired 25 years ago. Those 25 years didn’t go to waste. I read Fund Alarm and Mutual Fund Observer and learned immensely from those people. And, in retirement there’s time to read about and study the markets that you didn’t have while employed. I suppose to an extent the more advanced technology and “at demand” information flow has helped, although that one’s a 2-edged sword.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    My wife and I both have pensions, but they are not necessarily the great deal that some people think they are. Our pensions are with the state of North Carolina, and have no inflation adjustments. So we are totally dependent on our Republican controlled legislature for any increases to cope with inflation. Guess what, the legislature has made zero inflation adjustments since we retired 6-8 years ago, aside from a few minor one-time bonuses. So, our real income from our pensions have declined by at least 15% since we retired.
    Fortunately, we both held off starting Social Security payments, and those are adjusted for inflation. Plus, we have sizable investments in IRAs that are invested about 60% in stocks. Our IRAs are essentially functioning as in inflation adjustments for our pensions that are steadily decreasing in value. I like having the pension payments because it frees me from worrying about the stock market, but they are like having annuities with no inflation adjustments.
  • CD Renewals
    Looking forward to getting money out of short-term CD's. I tried it. Didn't like it. Will stick to money markets and floating rate T-Bills.
    I fully understand. Brokerage CDs are pretty illiquid options, that will often lose significant amounts of money, if you sell them before they mature. When MMs are paying close to 5%, that is a much more liquid option, and not that far below short duration CDs. I personally have enjoyed brokerage CDs since I started investing in them in March of 2022. I tend to focus on short term CDs, so it has not been difficult for me to hold them to maturity. If CDs start falling below 5%, I will likely not be as enamored with them. I am an older retired investor, am more interested in preservation of principal, with modest total return. At my age, maximizing my total return, for accumulation objectives, is just not that relevant to me any longer, so I am greatly enjoying this CD investment period.
  • CD Renewals

    ...
    You've done well the past year without the ups/downs that the folks in the market have, likely a little better than SPY without the drawdown, not too shabby.
    ...
    Baseball Fan
    Just curious: How has someone who has invested (pretty much exclusively, it appears) in ~5% ST CDs all year (therefore mid-year, UP about 2.5% on an annual basis) done "likely a little better than SPY" when SPY is UP ~15% YTD?
  • CD Renewals
    FD, the purpose/intent of this thread is VERY clear. It has NOTHING to do with bond OEF trading.
    ----------------
    So, a serious question:
    What purpose is your post about bond OEF trading on THIS thread other than feeding your incessant self-aggrandizing?
    Puhlease don't say you are just offering up an alternative to CDs.
    You KNOW that DT knows all about bond OEFs and he has told you countless times over the past 10-15 years that he does not trade bond OEFs. When he invests in them he does it LT.
    -----------------
    Too bad you "never in your life owned CD(s)." In the 1980s they averaged 12%.
    Oh, and good for you that you (allegedly, as always) made a few pennies on some secret sauce bond OEFS while the smart money this year was played on big tech, AI and semis. You're only trailing the S&P this year by ~10+%!
    Atta boy!
  • Changes involving Stuart Rigby and Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
    My thinking is the more concentrated a fund is in a few stocks, the more managers need a forensic accountant to go over the financial documents of their companies with a fine tooth comb looking for fraud or problematic areas. But for funds with 100 or 200 stocks as many Grandeur funds are, it seems less necessary. There is less individual company risk in a 1% position than a 5% one.
    That said, Silicon Valley Bank wasn’t a case of fraud or hidden funny numbers like Enron or Worldcom. These were risks on the balance sheet in plain sight. Maybe managers just didn’t believe rates would rise as quickly as they did and instead thought that SVB would have time to adjust and reduce its rate exposure.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    Very interesting points raised by several members. It is true that the equal weight fund does have to sell its winners down to the .2 allocation, but I understand that such rejiggering occurs only 4 times per year. Winners are pared back while stocks that have become cheaper (i.e., lost value) are on sale, so to speak. The gains from this « value proposition «  should compensate for the opportunity cost of selling gainers early.
    I did not previously own an S&P 500 index fund in my actively managed portfolio, so I am not replacing or duplicating anything by dipping my toes into RSP. I do own plenty of TIEIX, the TIAA-CREF Equity Index Fund, in my retirement account. I often hear chirping in my mind from some irritating creature named FOMO. Maybe others have been visited by this PITA. On good days, I can show him/her the door.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    One could say that equal-weight is the oldest "factor" around. It removes the large-cap bias of market-cap based ETFs.
    PV Runs are easy to link by using the "Link" click on the PV results title line. As these URLs are long, it is best to use them in MFO's Link-tool to post. Here it is since 10/2007, PV SPY RSP 10/2007-
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    From a common sense perspective, if one's goal is to be agnostic about the fortunes of any one company, why would you want to invest a lot more money in to some but not into others?
    But also, it's axiomatic that you should let your winners run, and with an equal weight portfolio, you keep chopping them back.
    Over any given time period, one approach will be better than the other. In a horse race, you only have to wait 2 minutes to see whether you were right. In this race, you will have to wait 10 or 15 years.
    Academic papers, difficult to comprehend, have been written on this question, and I just do not know what the right answer is. (Of course, it's also true that the "right" academic answer may produce inferior returns.
    I do think that the equal weight approach, because of greater diversification, is likely to do better in extreme bear markets.
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    I’ve been trying to lean into investing in the equal weight proposition. I think the supposition is, if the top heavy-weighted stocks in the S&P 500 were to drop in value, then the other 490+ stocks would increase in value through the top-heavy stocks’ value drop, allowing for the remaining stocks to rise in relative value, yes? In 2022 RSP dropped less than SPY (PV backtest), okay.
    Still, from the chart, it appears there’s a close correlation. So if the top-heavy stocks drop, so do the remaining 490+. For me it seems, this is a seductive rationale rather than an actionable strategy. What am I missing?
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @Baseball_Fan: let’s hope the new owner keeps the AR-15 quiet. Creepy story.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    Class.
    Just remember when many of us were in high school'ish in 1976 the population of the USA was ~ 220M, now "officially it is ~ 340M, and let's not BS ourselves with all the illegals etc it has to be more like ~380M. They have to live somewhere, no? I really don't see those CRE in the inner cities being built out...I think the real oppty is in the burbs with the big office parks...lot of land, not high rise but maybe easier to convert to housing? And this one if for you DMoran...I know a guy who just bought 40 acres in Alta WY, the other side of the Tetons, the quiet side....building a house next year, builder offering him a free AR15 as a deal sweetener....
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    After 25 years of retirement my allocation hasn’t changed much. Early on I looked to TRRIX, a 40/60 TRP fund for guidance. Currently own the fund and it’s one of several I watch to try and keep my feet firmly on the ground.
    No X-Ray. Simply broke apart my holdings to get a rough picture.
    Equity 46%
    Foreign / domestic bonds 20%
    Convertible bonds 10%
    Cash 10%
    Precious metals 7%*
    Foreign currencies 5%*
    S&P short position -2%
    Net long equity 44%
    * Some of the metals exposure is direct and some through PRPFX. The currencies are all through PRPFX. I own one long-short fund, making the total short position a bit higher than stated above and the net-long equity a bit lower.
    What the discussion pretty much misses is that not all equities are the same. Some are relatively low volatility, while some can be be quite explosive. Exposure to EM may count as part of your equities, but is more risky than most U.S. domestics. Guess that’s for another day.
  • CD Renewals
    @dryflower...so what is the alternative...buying a SPY -like index with the top holding of AAPL...with a PE of 33, YOY top line down -2.5%, Profit$ down a little more than that, cash on hand now under 2% of total capital unlike recently when it was 25%+...but damn the torpedos or for you youngsters out there YOLO...keep plowing your life savings into the casino?
    Not sure what the class thinks about this comment...but...while we are all sailing in the same ocean, we all experience inflation differently in the water craft we are on....you could argue that your portfolio as a whole gets whacked by inflation but I would also state for example if my annual spend is $150k before taxes annually and that inflation has gone up by +10, +15% (can we talk, be real, who really believes that bullshit that inflation was/is only 5,6,7% the past year) but that $150k is only very tiny % of my overall portfolio, inflation doesn't really impact my lifestyle, spending habits....I can always cut back somewhere. But say if one puts 35-50% of their portfolio in the markets and it gets whacked which is not out of the realm of reasonable possiblities and you add the "real world" inflation...you could get in trouble quickly as a near or in retiree.
    Rule #1 is capital preservation. Live to fight another day. don't get greedy...nothing wrong with ther 5% annual return...so many co workers the past 15 years in their early 50's were saying....all I "need" is 5% a year....until then they kept grinding....
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    So many obstacles now to converting empty office buildings including old zoning laws, and the fear of lost equity in nearby homes to be but a few. Interesting read, but will probably be behind a NYTimes paywall. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
    “There is an aging office building on Water Street in Lower Manhattan where it would make all the sense in the world to create apartments. The 31-story building, once the headquarters of A.I.G., has windows all around and a shape suited to extra corner units. In a city with too little housing, it could hold 800 to 900 apartments. Right across the street, one office not so different from this one has already been turned into housing, and another is on the way.
    But 175 Water Street has a hitch: Offices in the financial district are spared some zoning rules that make conversion hard — so long as they were built before 1977. And this one was built six years too late, in 1983.”