AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/19/24 AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/19/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (44.4%, above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (22.
5%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.1%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +21.9% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (121+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (36+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold down, dollar up. Big US stocks: 1-NVDA, 2-MSFT, 3-AAPL. Tech XLK rebalance to require selling billions of AAPL to buy more NVDA. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1522/thread
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Buying into the S&P 500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
Reason: Lots and lots and lots of people buy the SP500. The more people that buy the SP500 the more those companies/SP500 go up. Supply/demand.
Clap hands for Tinkerbell.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Any comments on Primecap Core vs Primecap? I am considering adding Primecap Core to complement my current stake in Capital Opportunity fund. Compared to VHCAX, VPCCX leans more toward Large Caps (72% vs 66%) and Value (25% vs 20%), which should make it a good fit for my portfolio.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Is there any ... OEF that has decent volume along those lines?
Why should volume of an OEF matter? Perhaps availability matters, but why volume?
Regarding availability, what that seems to be saying is that S&P 500 funds are a poor person's substitute for less widely available funds that track mega caps.
Edit: Ironically enough, there is an ETF that tracks the S&P 100 with ticker OEF.
XLG tracks the S&P Top 50. It has about 40% of the trading volume (in shares) of DIA, though of course a much lower dollar volume.
Sorry. my volume question was related to ETFs. Actually, AUM probably would be more useful data for both types, come to think of it.
And thx for the reminder - I remember OEF now that you mention it, but never heard of XLG...that looks like a good one!
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Is there any ... OEF that has decent volume along those lines?
Why should volume of an OEF matter? Perhaps availability matters, but why volume?
Regarding availability, what that seems to be saying is that S&P 500 funds are a poor person's substitute for less widely available funds that track mega caps.
Edit: Ironically enough, there is an ETF that tracks the S&P 100 with ticker OEF.
XLG tracks the S&P Top 50. It has about 40% of the trading volume (in shares) of DIA, though of course a much lower dollar volume.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Go with the crowd because the crowd makes self-fulfilling decisions? Lots of people buy because prices go up because lots of people buy?
By that reasoning, the S&P
500 (TR) should be outperforming the S&P Top
50 (TR), and yet ...
500 Top
50
YTD 1
5.82% 22.62%
1yr 26.33% 34.10%
3yr 11.33% 14.84% (annualized)
5yr 1
5.3
5% 18.7
5% (annualized)
10yr 12.93% 1
5.11% (annualized)
All figures through June 18, 2024. The last (10yr) is a hypothetical number provided by S&P Global, since the launch date of the Top
50 index was Nov 30, 201
5.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-top-50/?currency=USD&returntype=T-#overview
Yes but how many people invest in the Top
50-ish? Is there any ETF or OEF that has decent volume along those lines? I haven't looked, but I doubt it. (BBLU maybe?) Ergo pretty much everyone buys the index b/c that's what their retirement plans offer.
(I prefer more concentrated funds myself, fwiw saying.)
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Go with the crowd because the crowd makes self-fulfilling decisions? Lots of people buy because prices go up because lots of people buy?
By that reasoning, the S&P
500 (TR) should be outperforming the S&P Top
50 (TR), and yet ...
500 Top
50
YTD 1
5.82% 22.62%
1yr 26.33% 34.10%
3yr 11.33% 14.84% (annualized)
5yr 1
5.3
5% 18.7
5% (annualized)
10yr 12.93% 1
5.11% (annualized)
All figures through June 18, 2024. The last (10yr) is a hypothetical number provided by S&P Global, since the launch date of the Top
50 index was Nov 30, 201
5.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-top-50/?currency=USD&returntype=T-#overview
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Buying into the S&P 500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
Reason: Lots and lots and lots of people buy the SP
500. The more people that buy the SP
500 the more those companies/SP
500 go up. Supply/demand.
MRFOX BB "Concentrated funds are OK as long as the managers are not averse to portfolio turnover."
Low/high turnover and/or Concentrated/non-Concentrated funds don't guarantee better performance or better risk-adjusted performance.
Concentrated portfolio + low turnover can be terrible if the fund owns bad holdings.
FAIRX has low turnover, high Concentration + poor 3-year performance. It took me 5 hours of research...not, only 2 minutes.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens For me FCNTX had become for all intent and purpose an S&P 500 clone albeit with active management and a higher ER. It currently has 315 holdings. Also I'm not sure how much longer Danoff will remain in charge.
As for BIAWX I invested initially because of the management team, a concentrated focus (currently 33 holdings) and the ESG theme of the fund. To each their own, you do you.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Buying into the S&P 500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
If the decision is to go with megacaps, then why bother with that dreck? Or if the decision is to diversify across the market (despite smaller companies having not fared as well as megacaps in the past), consider buying into funds that truly diversify.
Good questions. What will the
500 Faithful say?
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens Buying into the S&P
500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
If the decision is to go with megacaps, then why bother with that dreck? Or if the decision is to diversify across the market (despite smaller companies having not fared as well as megacaps in the past), consider buying into funds that truly diversify.
MGC has outperformed VFIAX since inception, Jan 2008 (10.
50% vs. 10.26%), with slightly lower volatility (16.00% vs. 16.14% std dev), and a 3 year rolling coefficient of correlation ranging between 0.997 and 0.999 (nearly perfect tracking).
Portfolio Visualizer correlation (and performance) analysis of MGC and VFIAX
The divergence between mega caps and the rest of the market has been most
apparent in the past five years (give or take). Go with the flow or "revert to the mean"?
Current CDs are Compelling My Treasury positions at Schwab and Fidelity matured on June 15 (Saturday). ... Schwab did not show anything last night and added to cash this [Tuesday] AM.
Unlike Fidelity (at least from what other posters here have written), you can trade online at Schwab without having sufficient cash in your account at the time a trade is executed. You just need to get that cash into the account by settlement day (or you are set up to trade on margin).
In hindsight (putting on those 20/20 goggles), you could have placed your MMF order on Monday. It would have settled on Tuesday (today) and the Treasury proceeds would have covered it. The MMF would then have started accruing divs today.
This was in an IRA. I already tried unsuccessfully that idea in that account at the end of May when I had a smaller Treasury mature. Unless there is cash in the account, Schwab does not allow me (or broker assisted) to place a buy order in the IRA.
Have you tried with limited margin? This is not true margin (borrowing), which is forbidden in an IRA, but simply the ability to trade against unsettled cash. Or so I read:
The Limited Margin feature allows for trading on unsettled funds ...
Supported activities- Use of unsettled funds for trading
- Option spread trading in an IRA
Schwab,
Introduction to Limited Margin
Current CDs are Compelling @BaluBalu : Are you using T's instead of CD's to catch the tax break given by states ?
Added : Or for protect against Bank failure ?
My investing actions are not always rational. I do a lot of things out of laziness. I am still learning about myself and investing. I do not execute even 9
5% of knowledge (like most alcoholics!). I would say, do as I tell you not as I do.
If you remember there was a discussion where I spent a lot of time supporting CDs. Search
@old_Joe's posts where he was exploring how to weed out bad banks. There are plenty of good banks to buy CDs from.
Current CDs are Compelling Hi
@BaluBalu You wrote:
My Treasury positions at Schwab and Fidelity matured on June 15 Fidelity moved the money to sweep account
You're using the term 'sweep account', so this transaction is within a Fido Cash Management Account?? I ask, as a standard Fido brokerage has 'core positions' for cash consisting of a MMKT of one form or another.
Thank you.
Catch
It is the sweep (money market) fund, as you say.
Not every brokerage offers money market funds to act as a sweep bucket. So, I use the general term sweep account rather than the specific sweep fund. If you guys collectively agree to use Sweep Fund rather than Sweep Account, I am happy to sync up. (Whatever makes it easy for you all - I have a high sense of mortality.)
Current CDs are Compelling My Treasury positions at Schwab and Fidelity matured on June 15 (Saturday). ... Schwab did not show anything last night and added to cash this [Tuesday] AM.
Unlike Fidelity (at least from what other posters here have written), you can trade online at Schwab without having sufficient cash in your account at the time a trade is executed. You just need to get that cash into the account by settlement day (or you are set up to trade on margin).
In hindsight (putting on those 20/20 goggles), you could have placed your MMF order on Monday. It would have settled on Tuesday (today) and the Treasury proceeds would have covered it. The MMF would then have started accruing divs today.
This was in an IRA. I already tried unsuccessfully that idea in that account at the end of May when I had a smaller Treasury mature. Unless there is cash in the account, Schwab does not allow me (or broker assisted) to place a buy order in the IRA. We already had a lengthy discussion about this in this forum, may be with
@Catch22 (you can search).
My Schwab taxable account is 100% equity, with a mutual fund (happens to be MM) balance of $37.79.
I have another small Treasury maturing on July 1
5 (thankfully, a Monday). At that time, I will be done with Treasuries (or Agencies) at Schwab. I will just sell some longer term positions at Fidelity and buy the same at Schwab, that way I minimize the cash frictions at Schwab. I will continue to buy Treasuries (and Agencies) only at Fidelity.
Current CDs are Compelling Hi
@BaluBalu You wrote:
My Treasury positions at Schwab and Fidelity matured on June 15 Fidelity moved the money to sweep account
You're using the term 'sweep account', so this transaction is within a Fido Cash Management Account?? I ask, as a standard Fido brokerage has 'core positions' for cash consisting of a MMKT of one form or another.
Thank you.
Catch
Current CDs are Compelling My Treasury positions at Schwab and Fidelity matured on June 15 (Saturday). ... Schwab did not show anything last night and added to cash this [Tuesday] AM.
Unlike Fidelity (at least from what other posters here have written), you can trade online at Schwab without having sufficient cash in your account at the time a trade is executed. You just need to get that cash into the account by settlement day (or you are set up to trade on margin).
In hindsight (putting on those 20/20 goggles), you could have placed your MMF order on Monday. It would have settled on Tuesday (today) and the Treasury proceeds would have covered it. The MMF would then have started accruing divs today.
Same Moat Approach—Now in Different Styles Most investors should keep it simple. The SP500 ... beats most stock funds because it represents 2 simple ideas
1) American capitalism. ...
A take on that:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/opinion/capitalism-inflation.htmlStephens often is kind of a dope and this brief piece has no point after its halfway mark, but the first half sure has some eye-opening facts.