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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Seafarer at three
    Hi, Derf.
    One simple expedient would be to drop a note to Seafarer and ask. In general, expense waivers are almost never revoked although many contain a "clawback" provision. At base, advisers sometimes subsidize a fund until it hits a breakeven point but then they don't lower the expense ratio further until they've recouped some or all of the money they spent underwriting fund operations. In Seafarer's case, they can recoup expenses for the three years immediately prior to when they turn profitable.
    Andrew joked at one point that he and I both run non-profit entities, the difference between that I do it on purpose.
    A concern for shareholders is, I believe, part of Seafarer's DNA. They've repeatedly lowered their expense ratio, despite the fact that Morningstar wouldn't give them credit for the move since Morningstar uses the expense ratios from the annual report. Morningstar reports a 1.4% e.r. for Seafarer, which reflects the April 2014 Annual Report's calculation of the fund's 2013 expenses. The September 2014 prospectus commits to a 1.25% e.r. but Morningstar's profile of the fund in 2015 reports the expenses investors bore in 2013 as if they were current.
    As ever,
    David
  • New Moon ... New All Time High!
    Hi Ted,
    Thanks for stopping by.
    I had to turn to Google to find out who Arch Crawford was. For those interested I have provided a link to his site. It is interesting that our apperance favors along with our voice and speach pattern ... but, I hate to disapoint you .... I am not this person.
    http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/
    On the portfolio it is what it is and meets my needs. The performance numbers from Morningstar did not include the added return benefit of my special investment positions, spiffs as I have frequently called them. For 2014 my distribution yield was north of five percent and I look at the portfolio as a diverisfied income generator. It has worked well for me through the years and I see no reason to make any major changes at this time. However, I do plan to reduce my allocation to domestic equities over the coming months and raise my allocation to some other assets.
    Here is a brief description of my sleeve system which I organized to help better manage the investments that were held in five accounts. The accounts consist of a taxable account, a self directed ira account, a 401k account, a profit sharing account and a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves. … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of four sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve and a specialty sleeve. Each sleeve consists of three to six funds (in most cases) with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and the amounts held. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment picture and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole monthly. Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets and wish to weight accordingly. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my 401k, profit sharing, and health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to cash the cash area builds cash within the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash distribution needs with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. In addition, most all buy/sell trades settle from, or settle to, the cash area.
    Here is how I have my asset allocation currently broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral targets are cash 15%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, and growth 20%. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio monthly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assesment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. Currently, I am neutral in the cash area, light in the income area and heavy in the equity area. I am thinking that once year end mutual fund capital gain distributions are paid out this will somewhat reduce the equity area and raise the cash area.
    Cash Area (Weighting Range 5% to 25%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
    Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
    Income Area (Weighting Range 20% to 40%)
    Fixed Income Sleeve: EVBAX, LALDX, THIFX, LBNDX, NEFZX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX, CAPAX, FKINX, ISFAX, PASAX & PGBAX
    Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 45%)
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, EADIX & PGUAX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, IGPAX & TIBAX
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, CFLGX, FDSAX, INUTX, NBHAX, SPQAX & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 30%)
    Global Sleeve: ANWPX, PGROX, THOAX, DEMAX, NEWFX & THDAX
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, BWLAX, HWAAX, SPECX, IACLX & VADAX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: IIVAX, PCVAX & PMDAX
    Specialty Sleeve: CCMAX, JCRAX, LPEFX, SGGDX & TOLLX
    Total number of mutual fund investment positions currently held equal fifty two.
    Have a grand day, Ted ... and, thanks again for stopping by.
    Old_Skeet
  • How To Invest In Bonds This Year: Q&A With Rick Rieder, Manager, BlackRock Strategic Income Fund:
    The transparency issue is timely because I was debating the auto insurance issue on rental cars which is a scam in my book. Using the web I found a alternative. Insuremyrentalcar.com. They are for real.
    Many auto policies cover rentals (and some states require residents' policies to do so). If you're interested in primary coverage and looking at Amex, they offer that as an option - it seems cheaper than the insurer John cited, though that seems to be oriented more toward long term coverage, while the Amex coverage is focused strictly on per-rental coverage.
    Note that if you have an Amex-branded card issued by another bank (such as the Fidelity Amex rebate card), coverage will be different from what you get with the "true" Amex cards that Bee linked to. Also, I don't know whether you can purchase the Amex primary coverage using one of these "faux Amex" cards. Best to check with Amex.
    https://www295.americanexpress.com/premium/car-rental-insurance-coverage/home.do
  • barrington financial commentary/ sorry if this is junk email

    BARRINGTON FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.
    a Registered Investment Advisor
    (Celebrating 42 years of Professional Service)
    MARKET COMMENTARY
    FEBRUARY 2015
    King Dollar is a two-edged sword. The very strong dollar has helped to cause the dramatic fall in oil prices. Like oil, all commodities are priced in dollars, so copper, iron ore, coal, grains, etc., are all lower in price, which has given the U.S. a very low inflation rate as well as adding after-tax dollars to the consumers’ pocketbook. Engineers know for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. This does not always occur in financial markets but it has this time. Our strong currency is slowing our exports since other countries need to spend more of their currency to purchase our exports. This causes inflation in other countries, which is slowing their growth and lowering their consumption. Also, the fall in oil prices is causing domestic companies to dramatically lower capital spending this year resulting in announced lay offs in drilling and oil field service companies. This is problematic because the hydrocarbon industry has been the largest provider of high paying jobs over the last five years.
    What was initially announced as a 2.6% GDP increase in the fourth quarter, will probably be reduced as more data on our export activity is more available. However, going forward, there are several factors which point to a continued increase in U.S. growth. Back on February 6th the U.S. Labor Department announced a stronger-than-expected increase of 257,000 jobs for January. They also increased the new hires number for December and November by 147,000 jobs. This is the largest labor increase in a three-month period since 1997. The Labor Department also stated wage gains were beginning to see higher growth. Outside of the energy business, labor hires are increasing. Retail, construction, manufacturing, and healthcare all showed an increase in hirings. The lower gasoline prices has allowed consumers to be able to increase their savings without crushing spending. They are also buying larger vehicles again. Truck and SUV sales have increased over the same periods a year ago. These vehicles are more profitable to the automobile manufacturer, which allows them to increase their profit as well as increase hiring.
    As we mentioned earlier the strong dollar has contributed to the dramatic fall in the price of oil. However, slower demand from a slowing world economy along with increased production in Canada and the U.S. quickened the fall in price as surpluses rose. We believe there are several factors, which will cause prices to stabilize and start to rise sooner than many analysts are predicting. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) last week announced that gasoline consumption in January showed a dramatic increase over a year ago. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is predicting world-wide consumption to increase to around 94 mm barrels/day by the end of the year, an increase of about 1.5 mm barrels. In addition, political problems around the world are beginning to slow production. Libya has slowed exports by about 500,000 barrels/day over the last two months and the EIA announced domestic production decreased by 33,000 barrels/day last month. For these reasons we believe the price of oil has currently stabilized around the $50 per barrel price and has started to rise back up toward the $70 to $80 per barrel that we think it will reach by year end. This price increase will be aided by a somewhat weaker dollar between now and year end.
    The oil price collapse has caused some investors to throw out the baby with the bath water. As a patient investor, there are bargains available in the market. As oil prices have fallen, so have Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). Ethane had fallen to about $0.40/gallon, down from over $1.50/gallon last year. This gives the U.S. chemical industry a distinct advantage over other areas of the world that use Naphtha to derive Ethylene. One sector of the economy that benefits from lower prices is the chemical industry. Westlake Chemicals (WLK) and LyondellBasell (LYB) are still our favorites in this sector. Their plant expansions are coming on line now thru mid-2017. This added capacity will lower their cost even more and enable them to take better advantage of the abundance of domestic NGL production. We feel both of these companies are still oversold. We do not feel that the price of oil is going to remain low enough for long enough to have any sort of negative impact on their earnings so we will be adding to these positions as cash becomes available.
    The mid-stream sector was hard hit as well. These companies derive most of their income from fee-based revenue through their pipelines and NGL processing. They are largely shielded from the price of the hydrocarbon. Several mid-stream companies we follow are building capacity to take advantage of the domestic expansion in production and demand in the NGL space. Our two favorite names in this space are Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMI).
    With the large drop in oil prices, almost all of the E&P companies have slashed their capital expansion spending for the coming year by at least 25% to over 50%. They will not ramp back up until oil prices rise and stabilize. As the price of oil gains ground back to the mid-$60s, several producers that have very good leases will again be very profitable. We are now slowly increasing our positions in several players in this area. Names we recommend are Concho Resources Inc. (CXO), EOG Resources (EOG), and Linn Energy (LINE). For an investment in the Marcellus shale, Gastar Exploration (GST) and Range Resources (RRC) are where we are currently adding money.
    We are emphasizing investments in companies with good cash flow, good cash distributions and companies that operate in areas where they have a competitive advantage due to much lower energy costs and raw material input costs. We prefer companies with price earnings ratios that are at levels that are attractive compared to the low interest rates on investment grade bonds. BSG&L and BFA are long-term investors and we believe that if you are patient, build cash and buy good companies on pull backs, your portfolio will have good growth over the long term. Author: Ben Dickey, CFP/MBA/CHFC, Chairman of the Investment Committee, BSG&L Financial Services LLC.
    We welcome any concerns, or comments you may have. Please feel free to call (713) 785-7100 or email us at any time.
    Have a Blessed Day,
    William C. Heath, CFP®
    Chairman & CEO
  • Sam Stovall: Here's How Stocks Will React To Rising Interest Rates
    @BobC, you may be right that AEP needed a breather, but the stock lost approx. 4% on the day of the jobs report when thoughts about interest rates were changing. I don't think you can reasonably argue that the pullback that day, and possibly the continued pullback in subsequent days had nothing to do with interest rate expectations. I also don't think that means anyone needs to sell stocks they feel are good investments, but I think the point of the article was that if you've invested in those higher yielding S&P 500 stocks for the dividend income then its important to be aware of the capital risk as well.
  • Seafarer at three
    Hi, Crash.
    Typical of Andrew's caution, he posted a warning about the source of the "caught fire" period. An Indian pharma company popped 70% in a week, making it the firm's largest holding. Here's an excerpt of Andrew's special letter to shareholders following the pop:
    [W]e wish to draw shareholders’ attention to the extremely speculative nature of this position: the company has scant revenues; it has only recently begun to sporadically produce profits, and those sporadic profits are still intermingled with frequent losses; and the company has no consistent ability to produce cash flow, much less pay a dividend to its shareholders. There is no certainty regarding the company’s future or even its continued existence.
    ... this position represents a substantial departure from the Fund’s “core” strategy of seeking steady growth along with steady and growing dividends. It is a special exception to the regular construction of the Fund, and in my personal opinion, it is unique in its nature.
    When any position – especially a speculative one such as SPARC – appreciates so abruptly, I am prone to sell the underlying stock ... to mitigate the possibility that the position’s new size might induce unwanted, negative volatility ... based on the facts currently at my disposal, I have elected not to substantially reduce SPARC’s position size at this time ... because, based on my assessment of the company’s unique business model, its governance and management, and the scale of the economic opportunity that it is pursuing, it reasonably has the potential to become substantially more valuable over the next decade.
    Accordingly, and on behalf of Seafarer, I wish to advise all shareholders of the potential for heightened volatility in the Fund’s NAV.
    Andrew's letter had been discussed earlier, but I thought it wise to highlight it again given this thread.
    Andrew was in India this week. I'll be curious to read his Field Notes on the experience.
    For what interest it holds,
    David
  • New Moon ... New All Time High!
    The stock market seems to be in sync with the new moon, full moon, cycles as the S&P 500 Index reached an all time high on the 17th at 2100. So, from a full moon on Feb 3rd at 2050 it has now risen by a full 50 points or 2.4%. If one were to consider a period of two days before (1995) through two days after it has risen by about 5.25%; and, we are not yet through the new moon period with two days left.
    Let’s see where it goes from here?
    If this subject is of interest to you, you might enjoy reading more about this as I have provided a link below ... “Trading by the Light of the Moon.”
    http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_trading.phtml
    Although I don't trade by the light of the moon in of by itself I have found it to be very interesting as to how the moon cycles seem to be in much sync with the markets (S&P 500 Index). A simple strategy would be to buy around the full moon and then to sell around the new moon. In looking back, it seems to have worked more times than not.
    I am sure there are those that will take issue with this post; but, I say to them, to each their own.
    Have a great day … and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Sam Stovall: Here's How Stocks Will React To Rising Interest Rates
    So short-term Treasuries will be 25 bps higher at some point this year. That is not the reason some dividend stocks have had a pullback. The reason is they had a tremendous year in 2014. AEP was up 34%. So it's down about 4% YTD. But not because interest rates might creep up 25 bps. Its P/E got to almost 17. Time for a breather, but hardly a reason to sell a solid stock with a yield of 3.56% for what might be 2.4% on a ten-yr Treasury.
  • Investors Piling In To Currency-Hedged ETFs
    FYI: Investors are hedging their bets against more wild currency moves.
    Nearly half of all inflows into U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds this year have been invested in currency-hedged products, according to ETF.com. A total of $10 billion has entered 35 currency-hedged funds in 2015, amounting to 49% of the $20.4 billion that all ETFs had gathered as of Friday, the firm said.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/02/17/investors-piling-in-to-currency-hedged-etfs/tab/print/
  • Sam Stovall: Here's How Stocks Will React To Rising Interest Rates
    FYI: For investors worried about how stocks will react to rising interest rates, last week's trading may provide some guidance.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150217/FREE/150219941?template=printart
  • American Century Makes Its Liquid Alts Move
    FYI: American Century has been fairly quiet on the liquid alternatives front as the product category has experienced a boom since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2011, the firm launched two “130/30” funds and a market-neutral fund, and it has been operating another equity market-neutral fund since 2005, but American Century has largely been on the sideline of the liquid alts movement.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://dailyalts.com/american-century-makes-liquid-alts-move/
  • how much to contribute to 401k [investing 101]
    Hi John - Not Anna, but think you're doing great if you're putting 15% of your gross pay into your tax sheltered plan.
    I don't really want to get into the Roth vs Traditional debate because there's some strong opinions on both sides. Maybe others will.
    But if you can afford to contribute the same dollar amount and than pay the additional taxes out of pocket ... than I'd think the Roth would be a no-brainer in that case.
    Take care.
  • Berkshire Eliminates Exxon Stake Amid Plunge In Oil Prices
    Exxon Mobil is the 3rd-largest holding in MAPOX, one of my core funds. The latest portfolio is dated 31st January, '15 at Morningstar. But we all know how reliable Morningstar has become. And MAPOX ADDED more Exxon--- again, according to M*.
    The fund's own page shows Exxon Mobil in 4th place, 2.4% of portfolio. But four different holdings each claim 2.4%.
    http://www.mairsandpower.com/images/balanced/MP_Balanced_Fund_Factsheet_Q3.pdf
  • wintergreen
    Hi Old Joe,
    Thanks for your atta-boy.
    Although I'm a long time fan of Micchael Price and his crystal clear disclosures of his investing approach, I totally agree with your observation that it is a near impossibility to execute for most investors (perhaps Scott excepted). It is way beyond my capabilities.
    The work load can not be done without a large staff since Price recommends holding 30 to 50 positions. That translates to collecting detailed info on perhaps 100 plus possible investments. No way!
    That's likely why we all decided to do the mutual fund route. It simplifies. And as I get older, simplification is a mandatory goal.
    I hope you're in good health and your portfolio matches that good health.
    Best Wishes.
  • Seafarer at three
    Hi, Mona.
    There's not much overlap between the two funds, so it's hard to call one a substitute for the other. MAPIX is about 50/50, emerging and developed with a 25% stake in Japan, 70% large to mega cap. Seafarer is about 70/30 with the 30 beginning developed Asian markets but not Japan, 35% large to mega cap. And of course Seafarer is 60% Asia to MAPIX at 100%. So Seafarer has a smaller market cap, no Japan but a substantial chunk in Europe (15%) and Latin America (15%).
    Too, Seafarer is $130 million against $5 billion for the two Matthews' funds.
    That said, all are very risk conscious, well-managed and substantially driven by the fate of emerging Asia.
    Sorry for the wimpy response.
    David
  • Berkshire Eliminates Exxon Stake Amid Plunge In Oil Prices
    Was surprised to read this...he just bought the stock at about $95 I believe.
    Maybe he is taking lessons finally from Flack and Junkster!
  • FAIRX....maybe we should ignore the crowd
    Another strong day today.
    Believe the NY Times article referenced below has helped...
    Dear Shareholder,
    The following article by Gretchen Morgenson was published in The New York Times earlier today and covers recent developments in the litigation regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:
    "After the Housing Crisis, a Cash Flood and Silence"
    Kind regards,
    Investor Relations
    Fairholme Funds, Inc.
    4400 Biscayne Blvd.
    9th Floor
    Miami, FL 33137
  • wintergreen
    Previous discussion on board...not very supportive of fund:
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/49951/#Comment_49951
    @MJG.
    ...value-oriented investment process advocated by Winters has proven its worth over many decades
    WGRNX high fees add a significant headwind, seems like, to capturing that value premium.
  • Seafarer at three
    Great Owl for sure!
    Here are numbers through January. Slams the category.
    The risk numbers are much better too, even though our current methodology pegs it at 5. In our update next month, that will likely go to 4. In this bull market, everything "looks" risky when compared to SP500. If I get the update incorporated sooner, will post.
    But the basic metrics speak for themselves.
    Seems to me Mr. Foster and crew have delivered as promised. Fortunately, we own one of first accounts...a rare enlightened moment =).
    image