The stock market seems to be in sync with the new moon, full moon, cycles as the S&P 500 Index reached an all time high on the 17th at 2100. So, from a full moon on Feb 3rd at 2050 it has now risen by a full 50 points or 2.4%. If one were to consider a period of two days before (1995) through two days after it has risen by about 5.25%; and, we are not yet through the new moon period with two days left.
Let’s see where it goes from here?
If this subject is of interest to you, you might enjoy reading more about this as I have provided a link below ... “Trading by the Light of the Moon.”
http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_trading.phtmlAlthough I don't trade by the light of the moon in of by itself I have found it to be very interesting as to how the moon cycles seem to be in much sync with the markets (S&P 500 Index). A simple strategy would be to buy around the full moon and then to sell around the new moon. In looking back, it seems to have worked more times than not.
I am sure there are those that will take issue with this post; but, I say to them, to each their own.
Have a great day … and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Thanks for stopping by.
I had to turn to Google to find out who Arch Crawford was. For those interested I have provided a link to his site. It is interesting that our apperance favors along with our voice and speach pattern ... but, I hate to disapoint you .... I am not this person.
http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/
On the portfolio it is what it is and meets my needs. The performance numbers from Morningstar did not include the added return benefit of my special investment positions, spiffs as I have frequently called them. For 2014 my distribution yield was north of five percent and I look at the portfolio as a diverisfied income generator. It has worked well for me through the years and I see no reason to make any major changes at this time. However, I do plan to reduce my allocation to domestic equities over the coming months and raise my allocation to some other assets.
Here is a brief description of my sleeve system which I organized to help better manage the investments that were held in five accounts. The accounts consist of a taxable account, a self directed ira account, a 401k account, a profit sharing account and a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves. … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of four sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve and a specialty sleeve. Each sleeve consists of three to six funds (in most cases) with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and the amounts held. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment picture and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole monthly. Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets and wish to weight accordingly. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my 401k, profit sharing, and health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to cash the cash area builds cash within the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash distribution needs with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. In addition, most all buy/sell trades settle from, or settle to, the cash area.
Here is how I have my asset allocation currently broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral targets are cash 15%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, and growth 20%. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio monthly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assesment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. Currently, I am neutral in the cash area, light in the income area and heavy in the equity area. I am thinking that once year end mutual fund capital gain distributions are paid out this will somewhat reduce the equity area and raise the cash area.
Cash Area (Weighting Range 5% to 25%)
Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
Income Area (Weighting Range 20% to 40%)
Fixed Income Sleeve: EVBAX, LALDX, THIFX, LBNDX, NEFZX & TSIAX
Hybrid Income Sleeve: AZNAX, CAPAX, FKINX, ISFAX, PASAX & PGBAX
Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 45%)
Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX, EADIX & PGUAX
Global Hybrid Sleeve: CAIBX, IGPAX & TIBAX
Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, CFLGX, FDSAX, INUTX, NBHAX, SPQAX & SVAAX
Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 30%)
Global Sleeve: ANWPX, PGROX, THOAX, DEMAX, NEWFX & THDAX
Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, BWLAX, HWAAX, SPECX, IACLX & VADAX
Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: IIVAX, PCVAX & PMDAX
Specialty Sleeve: CCMAX, JCRAX, LPEFX, SGGDX & TOLLX
Total number of mutual fund investment positions currently held equal fifty two.
Have a grand day, Ted ... and, thanks again for stopping by.
Old_Skeet
Under another post of mine, you asked how my funds were performing with respect to their benchmark? Within this post I have listed my funds owned. It is easy to pull their respective Morningstar report and one can easily see how they have faired against their benchmark.
For the portfolio as a whole I have it benchmarked against the Lipper Balanced Index. Year-to-date the Index is up 1.78% while my portfolio is up 2.42%. At times, I lead the Index and at times it leads me. Last year the Index was up 7.1% while I was up 6.5% which includes the gains I had made from my spiff positions.
I hope this answers your question; and, perhaps my above blurb, directed to Ted, about my portfolio will provide some insight as to how I have organized and govern it.
Old_Skeet