Here is how Morningstar’s Market Valuation is seeing the market … Overbought by about three percent.
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
And, here is one trader’s perspective …
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator worked a tiny bit of its near term overbought condition off but is still quite high. Remember, when we are in bull market mode often these overbought conditions are not worked off by any serious selling – instead we get mild down days or small flattish type action.
http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2014/08/20/sttg-market-recap-august-20-2014/?
And, another trader’s perspective.
The S&P is the index to watch tomorrow. It has reached an inflection point: either it breaks 1,990 or it bounces off it. A bounce off may be nothing more than a delay, particularly if the Nasdaq continues to push higher. Note, technicals for this index are net bullish.
http://www.markets.fallondpicks.com/2014/08/daily-market-commentary-semiconductor.html?
A look at the futures ...
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Score me as just looking while I await another good dip (3% to 5%) in the market.
I wish all a grand day … and, most of all … “Good Investing.”
I am … Old_Skeet

@Crash
How about this one?
http://m.asia.wsj.com/articles/asian-borrowers-gaining-upper-hand-in-bond-sales-1406716576?mobile=y

Yup. Excerpt: "Last week alone, $2.6 billion in Asian junk bonds were issued—making it the busiest week for issuance of debt below investment-grade this year, pushing the total so far this year to US$17.8 billion, according to Dealogic, a data provider. Issuers last week included Indian energy company Greenko Group PLC and Chinese developer Modern Land (China) Co.
The surge contrasts with events in the U.S. There, junk bonds have been sold off as investors reconsider following a rally, spurred by rising geopolitical risks and concerns that eventual interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve could dent the attraction of fixed-income assets."
(Dated 30th July, '14.)

There's this from Aug 14, here at MFO.
During the sell-down, none of our active managed HY funds moved below a -2% retreat for the time frame. The return, on average for these funds for the past month is about +.5%.

@Crash
How about this one?
http://m.asia.wsj.com/articles/asian-borrowers-gaining-upper-hand-in-bond-sales-1406716576?mobile=y

Try this @JohnChisum,
Click on Ted's link, then click on comments...scroll back up and the article appeared for me...weird, but effective.

I guess it depends on who you believe. This was linked on the 18th.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/15122/big-investors-snap-up-junk-bonds#latest

Direxion Long/Short Global Currency Fund
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040587/000119312514315659/d778692d497.htm
Direxion Indexed CVT Strategy Bear Fund
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040587/000119312514315660/d778739d497.htm

FYI: The chart below shows several issues investors struggle with all the time. It’s difficult to pick the best performing investment year after year, yet for many investors it’s an annual event. They look for an encore, picking the best asset class last year with the hope of a repeat performance. Yet, betting on last year’s winner rarely works out.
Regards,
Ted
http://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/
Callan Periodic Tables:
http://www.callan.com/research/download/?file=periodic/free/757.pdf

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/102816/000094039414001195/multicap_growthfundspprosupp.htm
497 1 multicap_growthfundspprosupp.htm MULTICAP_GROWTH_FUND_SP_PRO_SUPP_DTD_8_20_14
Eaton Vance Multi-Cap Growth Fund
Supplement to
Prospectus dated January 1, 2014 and
Summary Prospectus dated January 1, 2014
On September 19, 2014, Eaton Vance Multi-Cap Growth Fund will discontinue all sales of its shares, except shares purchased by: (1) existing shareholders (including shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends and distributions); (2) employer sponsored retirement plans; or (3) fee-based programs (a) sponsored by financial intermediaries for which investment decisions are made on a centralized basis at the discretion of the firm (e.g., model portfolios managed by a firm or its investment committee); and (b) that have selected the Fund prior to the close of business on September 19, 2014.
August 20, 2014
16011 8.20.14

Nice chart. It does go out to 5 years. I found it hard to see numbers in brownish squares.
have a nice day, Derf

I would love to see longer term charts (5 year charts) that rolled through major events and trends. I believe recent events and trends such as the Fed Asset Purchase program, Obamacare, war on terror, global warming, and too many Technological discoveries to mention have as much to do with rearrange these correlations as any other variable.
Both Natural and manmade events/trends often cause certain asset classes to react in ways that temporarily scrabble or permanently change the relationship of asset classes. As a result, asset classes can remain "favored" or "out of favor" for inconsistent periods of time due, in part, to these forces.

The names marketing people come up with are so user-unfriendly. Does anyone really understand what the name of this fund means? Of course not, at least not until you read enough to figure it out. But if it sounds complicated, it must be good, right? EM makes up about 50% of our total international allocation. As for PIMCO, unless the fund is sub-advised (like PAUIX), we do not use them at this time. Just not much confidence with the person at the top.

50% is quite a hefty EM allocation as a fraction of international weighting. The Vanguard Total International Stock Index fund has 14.4% in emerging markets. That's more than a 3x overweighting. But Jeremy Grantham/GMO thinks that emerging markets have the best 7-year prospects of any asset class. The valuations are low.
"not much confidence with the person at the top" : Poor Bill Gross. Having a very bad year. I don't recall him ever being 'disrespected' like he is this year. He's always been on a sort of pedestal, the Bond King.

The names marketing people come up with are so user-unfriendly. Does anyone really understand what the name of this fund means? Of course not, at least not until you read enough to figure it out. But if it sounds complicated, it must be good, right? We continue to stick with our core EM holdings, Oppenheimer ODVYX, Wasatch WAEMX, (Thornburg THDIX or Parametric EIEMX where ODVYX is not available). We also use Matthews MAPIX as a core hold for most accounts, and Wasatch WAFMX for more aggressive accounts. EM makes up about 50% of our total international allocation. As for PIMCO, unless the fund is sub-advised (like PAUIX), we do not use them at this time. Just not much confidence with the person at the top.

Well, taking the 5-year time frame, it appears that if you were looking for diversification from (for example) Barclays Aggregate Bond iShares (AGG), you wouldn't want to be using TIPs, as there is a strong correlation between those two. During this period, TIPS returned 4.8% vs 3.7% for the iShares, and presumably they went "up and down" pretty much together.
There seem to be no assets listed in this table with negative correlation, which is actually pretty interesting in itself. There are, however lots of choices with "slight negative correlation".
Picking VO, the Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF as an example, it had "slight negative correlation" with TIPS, AGG, RWX and EEM, so presumably any of those would be a partial offset to VO. According to this table, during this period VO returned 19%, against 4.8% for TIPS, 3.7% for AGG, 11.5% for RWX, and 6% for EEM.
From that, it looks like some sort of mix of VO (19%) and RWX (11.5%) would give you a pretty decent return while maintaining at least a "slight" amount of diversity.
Pretty interesting... thanks for the post!

Article by Josh Brown:
"If I only had thirty seconds to teach a young person about asset allocation, I probably wouldn’t bother with anything written. I’d also dispense with any sort of formula, equation or model.
Instead, I’d come armed with just one chart and force my erstwhile pupil to spend the entire half-minute staring at it.
That chart is below, a gem from Professor Jeremy Siegel"

advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2014/08/18/thirty-second-course-on-asset-allocation.html

@Mike: My wife can buy all the VWELX she wants in her 457, through VALIC
Regards,
Ted.

@Ted
;)

Many many thanks to all who responded here!! Not only have you been enlightening and helpful to a newcomer (our DIL) but you just may have acquired a new lurker. This was the spirit of FA, and it seems it is continuing here (minus a few recent acrimonious offerings which are probably better off to just forget).
BTW, the 457 offerings thru her college are TIAA-CREF, VALIC, and ING. Well, at least ING has the old Lex Corp Leaders which might hold some interest, although why a dinosaur with 0% turnover should be charging .5 ER is, well, we know why they're charging it... I think it's back to mutual funds in the 403(b).

I believe VWELX is closed to third party financial intermediaries only. Interested parties can still buy the fund directly through Vanguard. See the link below.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105563/000093247113005690/ps2102201355x85.htm
Also, the Vanguard web site does not list it as being a "closed" fund.

Always nice to hear about Buffett. I have tremendous respect for him. And I've heard him speak (or read what he said in interviews) just what you reported about intelligence. I think Buffett doesn't realize just how intelligent he is. I think he is way up there, a superbly intelligent person. And his memory seems to be exceptional.
He apparently doesn't see just how smart he is. Every time I have seen him on TV at CNBC or elsewhere, he has total command of his subject, details, facts, etc.
MJG, thanks for posting. I like hearing about Munger too, but not nearly as much as Buffett. On a side note, I just read his 2013 Letter to Shareholders. I think it is a real gem. He gives extremely important and practical investment advice there, and lots of it.
He did catch some flack for saying that in his will, he has left instructions to the trustee to put 90% of his wife's portfolio in the S&P 500 index fund, and 10% in short term government bonds