March Commentary is Posted! Brilliant!
"...What should this mean for readers of this publication? We at MFO have been looking for absolute value investors. I can tell you that they are in short supply. Charlie Munger had some good advice recently, which others have quoted and I will paraphrase. Focus on doing the easy things. Investment decisions or choices that are complex, and by that I mean things that include shorting stocks, futures, and the like – leave that to others. One of the more brilliant value investors and a contemporary of Benjamin Graham, Irving Kahn, passed away last week. He did very well with 50% of his assets in cash and 50% of his assets in equities. For most of us, the cash serves as a buffer and as a reserve for when the real, once in a lifetime, opportunities arise. I will close now, as is my wont, with a quote from a book, The Last Supper, by one of the great, under-appreciated American authors, Charles McCarry. “Do you know what makes a man a genius? The ability to see the obvious. Practically nobody can do that.”
Is the Stock Market Cheap? Let's assume that the S&P500 is overvalued. What's to say it couldn't become a lot more overvalued. You can lose a lot of cash by shorting. Shorting is a high risk and speculative activity. You can make more in the long run (decades) by taking good risks, rather than being big roller of the dice.
If you went on things like valuation, you would have either sold a lot of things too early in the last few years or missed things that didn't seem appealing from a valuation standpoint. I can come up with quite a few examples of things that I thought seemed expensive that I didn't get into and they've only gotten more expensive. Church and Dwight (CHD) is one that definitely comes to mind, there are a number of others.
Again, my view is to own the best ideas and just hold them long-term and reinvest dividends and there are things that I've tried to trade in the last few years, would have just been better off sitting and holding instead and that's really what I've decided to do. I have a great deal of respect for those who can sit and trade, I just find the route I've taken to be far less stressful and actually, much more enjoyable than micromanaging.
Is the Stock Market Cheap? @JJM58One finds that you have had a total of 7 visits to this site since joining in March of 2014.
Now, it is possible to login and remain logged in, in order to read everything
@Junkster has written at this site. Perhaps you have done this; but have not understood what he has written.
Junkster explained that he is invested in junk bonds at this time and will remain so until his sell signals show him it is time to leave. This is a future investment, for as soon as the clock ticks one minute after the initial purchase of any investment, one's investing future with that holding, has begun.
Otherwise, you are very much out of place with your comments.
MFO is not Yahoo forums or some of the other dysfunctional investment web sites, where the screaming and fighting outweight the wisdom.
You noted:
"Interesting to read your past moves.....however
what are you planning to do in the future is the
most important issue today.
No offense to you, sir, but I tire of posters who
provide us their "wisdom" of PAST maneuvers....
most of it I would bet is "revised" to a certain
extent...!"The next several times that you are logged in here; you would serve your knowledge and apparent desire to learn (or you wouldn't be here) to review all of Junkster's posts.
Catch
Is the Stock Market Cheap? Hi Maurice,
Thanks for stopping by.
There is no doubt in my mind that the S&P 500 Index is overvalued and overbought. But, currently it is the best house in the neighborhood and with that it now draws a premium price. It will not always be this way.
I am not buying much ... but, I have a great deal of cash and its got to go somewhere. At least if I buy out of favor securities then I have a chance, in time, to make some profit. If I buy securities that are selling at a good premium ... well the chance of making good money off of them is a whole lot less. It would be a momentum type of position and I like my positions to be supported by good fundamentals.
Just my thinking,
Old_Skeet
Is the Stock Market Cheap? Hi Junkster,
Thanks for stopping buy.
I for one enjoy reading about what you got cooking, so to speak ... and, what your thoughts are. In addition, I enjoyed reading your book "How I Trade for a Living." Your post have been very insightful; and, I am sure if JJM58 had been on the board as long as the most of the rest of us he'd perhaps not have step of the Junkster's toes (so to speak).
I mentioned your book not to bring notoriety to you but thought he might be interested in seeking a copy of your book out for his own reading. You have earned your stipes with me.
Take care my friend, and, again ... Thanks for stopping by.
Old_Skeet
Is the Stock Market Cheap? Junkster
Interesting to read your past moves.....however
what are you planning to do in the future is the
most important issue today.
No offense to you, sir, but I tire of posters who
provide us their "wisdom" of PAST maneuvers....
most of it I would bet is "revised" to a certain
extent...!
May 1st profits are made by March 2 decisions.
Best regards to you.......
Whoa! Bad morning? I posted numerous times last year beginning in January what my position was duruing 2014 which was primarily 100% in junk munis. Now I am 100% in junk corporates and posted this January as I was exiting the junk munis for the junk corporates. I trade in the present as I am unable to predict the future. Do you want me to send you my brokerage statements or something from last year?
