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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mark Hulbert: Investing Guru Predicts 12% Rise In Stocks Over Six months
    Someone is going to have to do more than "Research Work" for 63 years to claim Guru Status with me, But everyone has the privilege to pick their "Gurus":
    His previous six-month forecast, for example, was that the S&P 500 by the end of March (this past Tuesday) would be between 2,160 and 2,200 — representing an increase of at least 9.5% over where it stood at the end of last year’s third quarter. As fate would have it, the S&P 500 rose “only” 4.8% over that six-month period.
    not my kinda of Guru....tb
  • Russell 2500 Construction
    The firm manages four US mutual funds (as you'll see on their website). The same fund managers as your trust manage GW&K's small cap core (as opposed to your small/mid cap core) strategy. The small cap core strategy has a corresponding mutual fund (GWEIX), so that may give you a little better insight into the managers and the company
    They also manage a fund offered in Finland, which supposedly invests in small and mid cap (American) companies, 55-85 of them, just like your trust. So it might be a closer match to the trust. Here's google's translation of M*'s Finish page for that fund.
    When I can't track a portfolio directly, I usually look for a clone. But even if this Finish fund is a clone, I'm not sure it's going to help you too much with tracking.
    Here's a WSJ article on Collective Investment Trusts (CITs)
  • June Rate Hike Now Appears Off the Table
    @Scott: Scott said, "The weather excuse whenever things aren't going well during this time of year is garbage" Wrong ! it played a factor !!!
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-03/here-s-why-the-march-jobs-report-wasn-t-as-bad-as-you-think

  • Mark Hulbert: Investing Guru Predicts 12% Rise In Stocks Over Six months
    FYI: This aging bull market should be given the benefit of the doubt for at least another several months.
    That cheery forecast comes from Sam Eisenstadt, who has more successfully called stocks’ direction in recent years than anyone I can think of. His latest forecast is that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.35% will rise to 2,310 over the next six months. If so, the market at the end of September will be 11.8% higher than where it stands today.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/enjoy-the-party-while-it-lasts-2015-04-03/print
    Music To My Ears: Play It Again Sam;
  • 4 Looming Questions for Dividend Investors This Year
    FYI: The first quarter brought a new record for the amount of dividends paid to investors, as covered in this week’s Speaking of Dividends column. Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 paid out a grand total of $93.5 billion in dividends and next quarter’s tally should be even higher.
    The S&P 500 dividend yield is 2.04%, (or 2.38% if you count only the 84% of companies that pay a dividend), but that’s still way below historic levels for S&P dividend yields.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2015/04/02/4-looming-questions-for-dividend-investors-this-year/tab/print/
  • June Rate Hike Now Appears Off the Table
    FYI: Investors dialed back their expectations for when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates following the release of a disappointing government report on March payrolls Friday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2015/04/03/june-rate-hike-now-appears-off-the-table/tab/print/
  • K1 from Oaktree capital group
    Back to Oaktree again; do you guys think it is necessary to file Disclosure Statement form 8275 if using the current K1 estimate from OAK
  • K1 from Oaktree capital group
    @ Ted When you stick with financial advice, I find it to be top notch. I will reconsider my MLP decision.
    I guess here's the thing. I do not love the K1s. However, if you really want to own a Blackstone or a Oaktree or one of the Brookfield spin-offs or a pipeline co, you have to put up with it. You just have to really feel strongly about it (whether OAK or BX or something else.) Additionally, for most people I'd really stay stick with no more than 2-3.
    I own 6 (optimally, I'd like to have no more than 5 in a given year) and I would have a difficult time selling any of them at this point. I'll admit that I even have to be a little better about being selective with these and, like everything else, have to really stick with "best ideas" only. There's one I had to do that I no longer own and one that I'll have to do next year that I sold after a couple of weeks early this year.
  • Interesting movement on ACDJX.
    @BenWP, Thanks for that tip. That is a interesting ETF and a new one at that. Can I imagine I am 25 years old again and buy that for the long haul?
    @Junkster, Comparative pricing has been a thorn in patients sides. Selling a medication that costs relatively little to make at a high profit because it can save you the costs of surgery is kinda in the trickery dept. I do not bemoan the profits of any company but sometimes the reasons for the high prices are head scratching.
  • K1 from Oaktree capital group
    The one you can downloaded from their web is estimate; my Tax guy told me that I need to file a Disclosure Statement form 8275 if using this K1 estimate. I received all other final K1s except this one.
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    Yeah, the $100k taxable/$5k IRA are the minimums if you buy directly from DoubleLine, and as far as I'm aware that's the deal with (most? all?) the supermarkets too. The I shares (typically? always?) have a TF at the supermarkets, but the E.R. is 25 basis points lower than the N shares.
    The etf has a little higher E.R. than the oef I shares, but it's lower than the N shares (which is like Pimco prices BOND, PTTRX, PTTDX).
  • Interesting movement on ACDJX.
    @JohnChisum: you might be interested in the discussion about the new Exponential Technologies ETF that just started trading under the symbol XT. The ER is .47% and assets went from nil to 600 million just last week. Rick Edelman put 560m of his clients assets in and I put in the other 40m. (A little late for April Fools.) The spread on XT has been only a penny or two, very low for a new fund. This fund is in no way comparable to your 130/30 fund, but it does hit "future stocks."
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    5k is right for fidelity and Schwab I believe
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    Thanks for the information. He clearly struck-out on THAT score. I'll stick with him, though. DLFNX is a small position. Today, I just added a tiny bit to it, too.
    His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.
    I'm also looking at DLFNX, as well as DoubleLine Total Return.
    FWIW, you can get into the institutional share classes in an IRA at asset levels FAR below that required in a taxable account. IIRC, something like $5k, versus 100k......don't quote me on that
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    OK. I'm not in any munis. Was he correct?
    Crash, nope......he wasn't correct. Nothing even remotely close to a "major collapse."
    Here's how muni bonds have done in each calendar year starting 2010
    We'll look at : Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt VWITX
    This is a national muni fund (as opposed to a state specific muni fund)
    You can also see how the index performed and how the category performed
    image
    And what happened in 2013 was not a muni bond market issue, but rather a bond market as a whole issue......interest rates rose. For example, the Barclay's Aggregate bond market index was down roughly 2% that year.
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    From the 2011 article:
    By Jonathan R. Laing
    Updated Feb. 21, 2011
    Gundlach made a couple of very significant predictions in 2011:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254?tesla=y
    Celebrated bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has a healthy -- some might say overdeveloped -- ego.
    "Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says.........But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
    "Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says.

    "He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value. "
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King

    Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.

    Oh, goodness, you're right. Sorry about that. I just went to look for the one I MEANT to link here. Sonsofbitches have got it blocked, unless you subscribe. Dated 03 January, 2015.
    No problem. I do respect the opinions of Gundlach and overlay it with positive price action. Albeit, I can't recall him ever being overly enthusiastic for junk corporates during its run since the December 2008 bottom. Must not be his bailiwick
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King

    Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.
    Oh, goodness, you're right. Sorry about that. I just went to look for the one I MEANT to link here. Sonsofbitches have got it blocked, unless you subscribe. Dated 03 January, 2015.
  • Art Cashin: " Market ReactsTto Iran, Greece"
    All pretty predictable. Did anyone really think we'd walk away from the talks without some kind of agreement after going right down to the wire (plus agreeing to a couple time extensions)?
    No knowledge of the agreement or opinion whether it's good or bad. Of dubious importance from an investing point of view. Stock market reacted with a big yawn - probably the correct reaction. Should prospects of passage in the Senate improve in the weeks ahead ... that's probably positive for the markets - overvalued though they are. Media was all over the 3% slide in crude. Seem to have forgotten about yesterday's near 5% rise.
    Not sure what Ted sees in Art Cashin.