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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • USAA ETFs - Combining Momentum + Value (The backtest doesn't look so good for small caps)
    Indexes for USAA domestic ETFs
    MSCI SELECT VALUE MOMENTUM BLEND INDEXES [home page]
    https://www.msci.com/msci-select-value-momentum-blend-indexes
      The MSCI Select Value Momentum Blend Indexes are designed to represent the performance of a strategy that seeks higher exposure to value and momentum factors within the parent index while also maintaining moderate index turnover and lower realized volatility than traditional cap weighted indexes...
    MSCI USA SMALL CAP SELECT VALUE MOMENTUM BLEND [pdf]
    https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/1f9001e4-29fa-4d23-a274-e740dbb6e292
    MSCI USA SELECT VALUE MOMENTUM BLEND [pdf]
    https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/21e2d160-e14b-426f-9202-f1f501d0c2d7
    MSCI Select Value Momentum Blend Indexes Methodology [pdf]
    https://www.msci.com/documents/1296102/7137327/MSCI_Select_Value_Momentum_Blend_Indexes_Methodology_August2017.pdf/81e66bd3-db44-4e75-b733-9f765c609ab6
    (Don't know how to post images, sorry)
    See links above for links to home page and pdf 'factsheets' for each of the above two indexes.
    These indexes are the indexes used in the USAA ETFs:
    ULVM (large cap)
    https://www.usaa.com/investments/etf-details?lookAndFeel=iframe_gadget&ucsp=lookAndFeel#0411
    USVM (small cap)
    https://www.usaa.com/investments/etf-details?lookAndFeel=iframe_gadget&ucsp=lookAndFeel#0412
    While large cap 'looks great' in backtest, anyone else 'troubled' by the underwhelming performance (in the 'backtest') of the USVM/Small Cap index?
    Believe it may be due to higher transactions costs for small stocks. A consideration of these is discussed in the following post, which references an apparently-unrelated-to-specific-MSCI-strategy Gerstein Fisher article on combinations of value and momentum strategies.
  • S&P Research Findings Kill Active Fund Management
    Hi Guys,
    I apologize if these S&P study results were previously posted on MFO. I miss plenty, but much more importantly, the S&P findings conclude that active mutual fund management misses even more. Here are two recent research Links from that firm.
    The first essentially concludes that globally about 95% of actively managed funds underperform their Index over periods that exceed 3 years. The specific numbers change but the underperformance is dramatic, is persuasive, and is not too surprising. The second Link talks about fund performance persistence. Again, a very dismal set of statistics is presented. Persistent superior performance simply does not exist, with perhaps a very, very few exceptions.
    https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2016.pdf
    https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/persistence-scorecard-december-2016.pdf
    Enjoy, but much to much detail in these reports. However, the bottomline conclusions are significant and easy enough to understand, Owning a portfolio of actively managed mutual funds is likely ( high probability ) a losers game. Good luck on picking a recent winning fund and having that fund repeat its superior performance. The outlook is not encouraging given the probabilities and the potential excess plus or minus returns relative to a fair Index.
    There's a simple solution here.
    Best Regards
  • RayDalio: “Cash Is Trash ” & "Bridgewater Is Long Equity Markets" Two Videos
    Cash is trash? That’s a dumb statement.
    I wouldn’t tell that to my 88-year old widow neighbor. And while something surely will outperform cash over the next decade, it’s a fool’s errand to pretend to know which asset. Bonds are overpriced. Equities probably so. That leaves real estate, industrial metals, agriculture/timber resources, precious metals and energy. My guess is it’s one of the last group - but only a guess. That’s a pretty short interview. Dalio didn’t say, but I’d have to think a hedge fund would use cash at times while waiting for better opportunities to come along. Another approach is to sell markets short - but it’s expensive and can be deadly if you get caught leaning the wrong way.
    -
    Added 10/29 The comment by Dalio prompted me to look back in time. Had he said “Cash is trash today” he’d be nearer the mark. Those with short memories may not recall that we got into this situation because Dalio’s “superior“ asset classes mostly crashed and burned beginning in late ‘07 and continuing until March ‘09 when they began turning up. Today’s 1% cash rates are mostly the result of intense efforts by central banks around the world (and here at home) to reflate those assets.
    Here’s a link to a longer term interest rate chart. Note that cash wasn’t always so trashy. For many years, especially in the ‘80s bank CDs of relatively short duration yielded in the vicinity of 7-12%. The chart doesn’t show money market fund yields. But my memory is that money market fund yields of 15% or higher were common for several of those same years. http://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/historical-cd-interest-rates-1984-2016/
    Is cash a good inflation hedge? No. Do yields on cash roughly track inflation? Yes. Looking to diversify further, a few months ago I added a limited term bond fund (OUSGX) to the small segment of my portfolio earmarked as an inflation hedge (areas expected to outperform during times of higher inflation). It joins a global bond fund, real estate, a real asset fund and an infrastructure fund in that category. Yield isn’t great right now (around 2%) but it would likely increase if severe inflation were to return.
    As a daily reader of one European newspaper, I can tell you parts of the continent, notably the UK, have been dealing with meaningfully rising inflation. I’ve seen anecdotal signs it may be stirring in the U.S. In specific: lumber and construction supplies and fresh produce. The later may be linked to the reduced number of temporary immigrant farm workers coming into the U.S. for harvest and other ag functions.
    Sorry so long winded.
  • Transition your Vanguard account to a Brokerage Account
    On Oct 27 msf asked:
      "How does directing dividends from an IRA tremendously simplify handling of IRA RMD's?"
    Here is one answer. Suppose that ...
      1. You own a number of Vanguard mutual funds, in a retirement account which is held in the form of a VG regular [non-brokerage] account.
      2. Many of the funds pay regular or semi-regular distributions.
      3. You take your RMD monthly.
      4. Interest rates are unattractively low.
    (Sound familiar?)
    Then you could - for example - direct all of your distributions (from all of your other funds) to a single -for want of a better term- 'distribution fund'. This might be the Vanguard Wellesley fund or the new Global Wellesley fund.
    The 'distribution fund' might have been pre-seeded or funded with some money in addition to the distributions that it (automatically) collects.
    You could then take all of your monthly RMD distributions from the single 'distribution fund' (e.g., the Wellesley Fund).
    When you check your RMD at the beginning of each year, you could look at the balance of the 'distribution fund', and fudging a little for expected distributions and appreciation or depreciation - make sure that you have enough in the 'distribution fund' to cover the upcoming year's RMD requirements.
    Can't do this with a brokerage account.
    While one may hold ETFs in addition to VG Mutual Funds prior to retirement and time to take RMD's, once one starts taking RMDs, can liquidate all ETFs in retirement accounts, transfer to more-or-less equivalent Vanguard funds (held in regular non-brokerage retirement accounts) and take advantage of the wonders of directed dividends.
    One can also - from time to time - "buy low" or reinforce an existing position, by directing all of the dividends from all of the other mutual funds to the fund that is "low" or which you want to gradually build a position.
    etc...
  • Dividend Growth Or Dividend Yield?
    I have, what I consider to be, a great fund SVAAX (Federated Strategic Value) that uses both dividend yield and dividend growth strategies plus it pays a monthly distribution with a current yield of about 3.2%. I have owned this fund for better than eight years and my cost basis per share is about $3.80 with a current price of $6.35. My brokerage account statement reflects my annual rate of return on the fund at about 13.0%.
    With this, I'm thinking as @Mark wrote above ... "one can have both." But have ... "Patience" ... "Trust the Process" ... "Time to Execute" ... etc.
    Indeed, from my perspective, the fund has served me well and makes up about a 50% position in my growth & income domestic equity sleeve. It's other two sleeve members, at about 25% each, are ANCFX (growth strategy) and FDSAX (yield strategy).
  • RayDalio: “Cash Is Trash ” & "Bridgewater Is Long Equity Markets" Two Videos
    Dalio thinks we are similar to 1937. Reflated by easing after a significant market downturn, transitioning to tightening.
  • RayDalio: “Cash Is Trash ” & "Bridgewater Is Long Equity Markets" Two Videos
    This has to be disheartening to Billionaires (or even Millionaires) when the very thing (their financial valuation) is trash. What are future Trillion-aires to do?
    I still think many Hundred-aires and Thousand-aires find cash a necessary part of their everyday life and are impacted greatly by its "trashiness".
    Here is an interesting read on today's financial alchemy which, in part, explains why "Cash is Trash" and other assets aren't much better.
    Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk:
    Artemis_Volatility+and+the+Alchemy+of+Risk_2017
    Ray on Volatility:

  • Dividend Growth Or Dividend Yield?
    Actually I think one can have both dividend growth and dividend yield if one has a plan, and has the patience to execute it. Trust the process:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4117315-trust-process?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=false
    Some on this site think it's utter bunk because of the source (Seeking Alpha) of the linked article but I can say that it has worked for me. I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.
  • RayDalio: “Cash Is Trash ” & "Bridgewater Is Long Equity Markets" Two Videos
    FYI: Billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder, co-chairman, and co-CIO of Bridgewater Associates, discusses the investment environment with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and David Gura on Bloomberg Radio and Television
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://ritholtz.com/2017/10/dalio-cash-worst-asset-can/
  • Vanguard’s Genocide Problem
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    The first six agenda items for next month’s Vanguard shareholder meeting cover riveting topics such as the appointment of trustees, service agreements, and the investment objectives of certain index funds. The seventh and final item concerns genocide.
    That got serious in a hurry.
    A group of activists is asking Vanguard to adopt a new policy...
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=0kD0WameIoKUjwSG6pko&q=Vanguard’s+Genocide+Problem+Barron's&oq=Vanguard’s+Genocide+Problem+Barron's&gs_l=psy-ab.3...6307.11470.0.11775.12.11.0.0.0.0.76.646.10.11.0....0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..1.8.564.6..35i39k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.104.S6R5KWZ3TXA
  • SEC Fines UBS $3.5 Million For Overcharging Mutual Fund Customers
    FYI: UBS AG (UBSG.S) will pay a $3.5 million civil fine to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission claims that it overcharged customers on mutual funds, the regulator said on Friday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ubs-sec/sec-fines-ubs-3-5-million-for-overcharging-mutual-fund-customers-idUSKBN1CW2Z5
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    To take a medical deduction, you need proof of two different things:
    1) That a qualified medical expense was incurred, and
    2) That you paid the expense.
    Old checks should suffice for #2, but you should also have proof of #1. That check to your dentist might have been for an electric toothbrush. Your doctor might be your next door neighbor who just sold you his old lawnmower.
    EOBs and doctor bills seem to be good ways to show what services were paid for.
    Regarding using HSAs for Medicare premiums - watch out for a gotcha.
    From IRS Pub 969: "if you, the account beneficiary, are not 65 or older, Medicare premiums for coverage of your spouse or a dependent (who is 65 or older) generally aren’t qualified medical expenses."
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    @ Old _Skeet & MFO Members: Here is a complete breakdown of the Sector SPDR's ETF Funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    One Month % Change
    S&P 500 Index
    +2.55%
    Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
    +1.76%
    Consumer Staples (XLP)
    -1.62%
    Energy (XLE)
    -1.35%
    Financials (XLF)
    +5.55%
    Health Care (XLV)
    +1.17%
    Industrials (XLI)
    +2.18%
    Materials (XLB)
    +5.37%
    Real Estate (XLRE)
    -0.37%
    Technology (XLK)
    +4.93%
    Utilities (XLU)
    +2.03%
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    Hello,
    Today is the last Friday of the month and a monthly close for Old_Skeet. The previous week there was no report on the barometer but the week closed with a reading of 132 and every feed indicated that the S&P 500 Index was overbought. This week a good bit of the overbought condition was worked off as the barometer closed the week, and the month, with a reading of 143 putting it just barely into overvalued territory and close to fair value. Generally, a lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index while a higher reading indicates potentially more investment value.
    The three major feeds of the barometer are a breadth feed which measures the number of stocks in the 500 Index above their 200 moving average. An earnings feed that combines both forward earnings estimates and as reported earnings (TTM). And, a technical score feed that is a combination of the Money Flow Index and Relative Strength Index. Combined these three feeds produce the barometer reading. The higher the combine feeds score the lower the barometer reading. And, at times, the slow stoch and short interest feeds factor into the reading. Just this past week short interest in SPY rose form 2.8 days to 3.3 days to cover. If the Index continues to advance I look for short interest (days to cover) to pullback as shorts cover their positions.
    For the month the three best performing major sector etfs followed were XLF, XLB & XLK. From a technical score perspective only XLP (staples) offers investment value, form my perspective, as it is the only sector etf followed that is currently scored undervalued.
    At this time, due to valuation, Old_Skeet is not buying (nor selling) and remains in a cash build mode as my mutual funds make their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio. According to my equity weighting matrix, which is driven by the barometer, I am overweight equities, at this time, by about 4% due to a seasonal investment strategy.
    I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • CIM: The Gift That Keeps On Giving
    @MFO Members: For those of you who think all I'm good for is linking articles. I also am a reasonable successful investor. Just received my quarterly CIM .50 dividend. On 6/16/15/ I pruchased shares in CIM at $14.55 per share. The stock closed today @ $18.50 that give me a 27.1% capital appreciation and a yield of 13.7%. On 11/28/16 purchased CIM-A preferred shares @24.64 that closed today @25.90 that gives me capital appreciation of 5.1% and yield of 8.1%.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    @Kaspa,
    Lost medical receipts might be retrievable by finding past checking statements (my bank keeps these available online electronicly in pdfs going back multiple years). Once you identify a lost payment save as a pdf (download to a storage device or the cloud). Also, lost payment records by credit card can be retrieved similarly.
    You might even be able to ask your dentist's/doctor's office or hospital billing department to retrieve patient payments.
    Items and services that are reimbursable are linked here (Qualified medical expenses):
    hsacenter.com/what-is-an-hsa/qualified-medical-expenses/
    H.S.A can be very helpful after age 65:
    Many out-of-pocket expenses qualify for tax-free H.S.A withdrawals even after you’re on Medicare. You can use the money to pay premiums for Medicare Part B, Part D prescription-drug coverage or all-in-one private Medicare Advantage plans (but not for medigap premiums). You can also use the money for co-payments and deductibles you pay for medical expenses, out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs, vision and dental care, and even a portion of qualified long-term-care premiums ($3,500 in 2012 for people ages 61 to 70, for example and more if you’re older)
    Article:
    health-savings-accounts-after-medicare
    IRS Link to Pub 502:
    https://irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p502.pdf
  • Best HSA Provider for Investing HSA Money
    Thank you msf and Old_Joe! Very illuminating. I have been tossing all my medical receipts at the end of each year - never made the 10% AGI cut to claim deduction. Better late than never!
  • Transition your Vanguard account to a Brokerage Account
    In a brokerage account, you can't automatically send distributions from one vanguard fund to another vanguard fund as you can with a non-brokerage vanguard account.
    ibartman wrote about using directed dividends in conjunction with IRAs. Since people typically use IRA distributions/dividends as a source of income (cash), that's the way I read the comment.
    Point noted, my error.
    Which raises the question - how does directing dividends from an IRA (which usually don't reach the level of RMDs) " tremendously!!! simplif[y] handling of IRA RMD's"?
    SIPC insurance is often mentioned as a benefit of placing the fund inside a brokerage. How is this supposed to help? SIPC is protection against the brokerage doing something bad, like running off with the fund shares. ISTM that if you don't add a broker as an additional handling layer, you don't need this extra SIPC layer of protection.
    "SIPC protects against the loss of cash and securities – such as stocks and bonds – held by a customer at a financially-troubled SIPC-member brokerage firm. ... SIPC protection is limited. SIPC only protects the custody function of the broker dealer, which means that SIPC works to restore to customers their securities and cash that are in their accounts when the brokerage firm liquidation begins."
    https://www.sipc.org/for-investors/what-sipc-protects
    Regarding bankruptcy protection - that is inherent in the vehicle (IRA or 401k), not the custodian (fund family or brokerage). You'll get IRA protection whether the IRA consists of funds invested directly with the fund distributor or funds held at a brokerage.
    With respect to what protection you get on funds that came from a 401k - the LA times article is either old or wrong. If you can show that the account came from a 401k, then it gets the same bankruptcy protection as if it were still in the 401k. However, if you choose not to declare bankruptcy (or you can't show that the money came from a 401k) then your protection is limited to whatever your state provides.
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/how-safe-creditors-your-401k-money-if-you-roll-it-ira
  • Transition your Vanguard account to a Brokerage Account
    @Anna- re "the same state protection that a Traditional or Rollover IRA gets"-
    I have no idea what you are referring to here. Could you give an example of the "state protections" for WA?
    Thanks- OJ
    Actually, an article about your state in the LATimes first drew my attention to the difference at the federal level in the treatment of 401K type retirement accounts and IRA type when it comes to bankruptcy/litigation.
    http://www.latimes.com/la-ira-story3-story.html
    A chart showing the litigation part by state (2014 ):
    https://www.thetaxadviser.com/content/dam/tta/issues/2014/jan/stateirachart.pdf
    I realize that this sort of stuff isn't a big deal (probabilities) but I could not see any reason to trade off my Vanguard IRA accounts (some Rollovers which I vetted with the law here) for the Brokerage equivalent if it lost such protections. I just was simply saying that if I were sure of this one thing I wouldn't hesitate on Vanguard's preferred conversion of my accounts. So far the only consequence has been that Vanguard says without the conversion, RMD (MRD) distributions can only go to my bank and not directly to my Vanguard taxable brokerage account. I don't really understand why that is.