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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stocks Rally Because You Can’t Sell Off With Earnings This Good
    Hi @hank: My current simple target asset allocation is 15% cash, 35% fixed income & 50% equity. I am in the process of moving towards 20% cash, 40% fixed income and 40% equity. I'm thinking that this asset allocation would be good for me going forward. I'm also thinking it best to do this over a period of time and at a pace of about 1% equity reduction per quarter.
    Thanks Old_Skeet
    I’m comfortable at 40% Balanced, 15% Cash Equivalents, 15% Spectrum Income, 15% in two Alternative funds, 7.5% International Bonds (including EM) and 7.5% Real Assets
    Last time I checked that added up to 100%. :)
  • US Deficit: $1.5 Billion In Daily Interest
    @MFO Members: I was afraid this would happen when I linked the article about the interest on the public debt, namely politicizing the issue.
    According to Wikipedia, United States public debt started with federal government debt incurred during the American Revolutionary War by the first U.S treasurer, Michael Hillegas, after its formation in 1789. The United States has continuously had a fluctuating public debt since then, except for about a year during 1835–1836.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Small-Cap Funds Take A Beating
    Ours:
    PRDSX 1-month down -6.63% ....6.05% of portf.
    VSCIX 1-month down -6. 6% .......4.22% of portf.
  • Edward Lampert, The Hedge-Fund Star Who Bet on Sears, Is Unrepentant
    FYI: He made billions for investors in his ESL Investments fund by bucking naysayers. At the storied American retailer, his instincts proved wrong.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/edward-lampert-the-hedge-fund-star-who-bet-on-sears-is-unrepentant-1539796363?mod=hp_lead_pos5
  • Small-Cap Funds Take A Beating
    FYI: Small-cap companies and funds have been buoyed for much of this year by the view that smaller, domestically focused companies were safe from the negative consequences of a trade war. But last week, as the stock market focused on rising interest rates and their impact on growth, small caps tanked.
    Click through to see the five best performers last week and then the five worst performers among small-cap funds with more than $100 million in assets. All are in negative territory for the week, it’s just a matter of how negative they are.
    Data are from CFRA.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20181016/FREE/101609999/PH
    Best:
    1. Ivy Micro Cap Growth Fund
    2. Wasatch Ultra Growth Fund
    3. WV Concentrated Equities Fund
    4. Royce Special Equity Fund
    5 .Cove Street Capital Small Cap Value Fund
    Worst
    1. Osterweis Emerging Opportunity Fund
    2. Towle Deep Value Fund
    3. Harbor Small Cap Value Fund
    4. Invesco Small Cap Value Fund
    5. Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
  • Stocks Rally Because You Can’t Sell Off With Earnings This Good
    Hi @hank: My current simple target asset allocation is 15% cash, 35% fixed income & 50% equity. I am in the process of moving towards 20% cash, 40% fixed income and 40% equity. I'm thinking that this asset allocation would be good for me going forward. I'm also thinking it best to do this over a period of time and at a pace of about 1% equity reduction per quarter.
  • The Sears Bankruptcy Is A Cautionary Tale For Hedge Fund Managers
    What was the point of:
    1) Leaving KMart’s stores outdated and in disrepair for years?
    2) Cheapening their merchandise to the point where no one would buy it?
    3) Operating mega-sized stores with a single cashier (adding new meaning to the term “slow”)?
    4) Allowing often vacant (of customers) but fully stocked stores to remain open near round the clock?
    5) Allowing KMarts to cannabalize sales of nearby Sears outlets by selling Sears branded merchadise (Craftsman and Kenmore) at lower prices and during more convenient hours?
    Geez - If you set out intentionally to ruin a business, you couldn’t do a better job.
    The interplay between EL’s hedge fund and Sears Holings is curious. I don’t pretend to understand it. But it appears suspect. Apparently, near the end, his hedge fund was trying unsuccessfully to buy off the valued Kenmore brand from the parent company.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/how-eddie-lampert-set-sears-up-to-fail-2017-5
  • Artisan International Small Cap Fund to reopen as well as other changes (manager, name, etc...)
    Unfortunately, Kanovich's fund (whichever) keeps getting more expensive. OSMAX charged 1.2% in 2015. Oppenheimer then closed the fund in 2016 and raised its ER to 1.3% (the increase came entirely from a higher management fee). Then in 2017 the ER went up to 1.4%.
    Now in 2018 Kanovich is moving to a fund with an ER approaching 1.6%. His returns have been great, but at what point does one say "enough"?
    I'm not saying that Kanovich will earn more here. ARTJX is a small fraction of the size of OSMAX. What matters to investors is how much comes out of their pockets.
    Also, I wonder whether the tax hit due to turnover will all be seen this tax year or the next, or both. He takes over Oct 15th, and generally mutual fund cap gains distributions are based on net realized gains for the twelve months ending Oct 31.
    See, e.g. question 5 in this Wisdom Tree FAQ:
    https://www.wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-media-files/capital-gains-estimates-schedule/cap-gains-faq-2016.pdf
    P.S. Nice to see a post from @LewisBraham
  • Stocks Rally Because You Can’t Sell Off With Earnings This Good
    FYI: All three major stock indexes marched higher on Tuesday after a disappointing start to the week. Earnings helped, putting the Dow on pace for its best day in two months.
    (They will be more details in the Closing Bell that I wiil post at 3:00 PM)
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-gain-ground-as-companies-deliver-on-earnings-1539706527?mod=hp_DAY_1
  • Your elementary-primer recommends for the not inspired or unknowing, into the world of investing
    @Catch22,
    Thought I’d give your synopsis a bump to the Discussions + side of the board where it may receive more notice. Not qualified to address your questions as you’ve stated them, but would like to score myself on each for the value of self-introspection.
    A budget and spending habits / Grade A (93%) Downright compulsive re yearly budgeting. A weakness for splurging on upgraded air travel & accommodations.
    Very basic overview of how the economy functions / Grade C (73%) - Geez, Does anybody really understand it? I can read three convincing depictions by three highly knowledgeable “authorities” and come away with three different views. Brings to mind the old line about “the one-armed economist”.
    Overview of investment types/descriptions / Grade B- (80%)
    I know quite a bit about mutual funds, having owned such for near 50 years - but little of stocks, bonds or ETFs and things like puts and calls - all outside my experience base.
    The reasons for investing in a 401k/403b/Traditional or Roth IRA's / Grade A (95%) The reasons are pretty compelling.
  • US Deficit: $1.5 Billion In Daily Interest
    FYI: Here is a number for your dinner conversation tonight: Did you know that the US government last year on average paid $1.5bn each day in interest payments, and this is rising toward $2bn per day over the coming years, see chart below. And this number could rise further as interest rates go up because of an overheating economy, more Treasury supply, and lack of demand for US fixed income from abroad because of higher hedging costs. These forces pushing US rates higher did not disappear yesterday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://ritholtz.com/2018/10/us-deficit-1-5-billion-in-daily-interest/
  • Your elementary-primer recommends for the not inspired or unknowing, into the world of investing
    I'm making a list of books and web sites to promote towards the "why in hell would I want to be an investor" folks I know.
    The target age range is mostly 25-50 years old, BUT needs to include the young ones, too. Some of the folks who will receive information from me are retired, but may pass along the information to their adult children and hopefully to the grand children. The could be named, "Investing for the unaware or the afraid"
    The criteria, somewhat; by areas:
    As an example, I can't be taking these folks into a 3rd year session of learning French; as they have not yet had the basics from beginning French, at day one. I need to keep this on the simple side in the beginning to maintain their interest. Yes, investing is a learning curve and an ongoing study; but I don't want them to feel overwhelmed and quit the journey. I anticipate not much better than a 10% survival rate, sadly.............
    --- A budget and spending habits
    --- Very basic overview of how the economy functions
    --- Overview of investment types/descriptions, although the direction would tend towards mutual funds; as this would be the most common form available for most
    --- The reasons for investing in a 401k/403b/Traditional or Roth IRA's
    NOTE: Two items that I already have in place, is Ray Dalio, "How the economic machine works" (free, 31 minutes, Youtube); and "The millionaire next door" (spending habits, budgeting)......book.
    I have not yet reviewed Youtube again; but there are indeed very useful pieces there; as well as Khan Academy.
    I'm leaning towards online writes and video how-to to obtain the best results and temptation to read/watch and become involved by the folks I'll be contacting.
    Thank you in advance, for more guidance towards meaningful sites/books at the elementary level.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through September 2018
    Hi openice.
    All the definitions are here ...
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/06/ratings-system-definitions/
    And basic equations here ...
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/5125/a-look-at-risk-adjusted-returns
    But if I'm missing something, please post/email me.
    The STDEV deviation is textbook standard.
    c
  • The Sears Bankruptcy Is A Cautionary Tale For Hedge Fund Managers
    FYI: Sears Holdings Corp . filed for bankruptcy early on Monday morning, the culmination of a years-long decline of the American retail institution, providing another example as to why hedge fund managers should steer clear of retail.
    Sears (ticker: SHLD) sought Chapter 11 protection and announced a deal with its lenders that will let it keep many stores open and continue paying vendors and employees. Its $1.8 billion debtor-in-possession asset-based credit facility gave it some $300 million more than it had before filing.
    Bankruptcy enabled it to “reject leases” on about 220 store locations, almost all of which are “dark stores” not open to shopper traffic where Sears has already shut operations. Sears will start “going out of business sales” at another 142 unprofitable stores, which will close by year-end. It had already announced intention to close 46 stores by November. The 125-year-old company operates about 700 Sears and Kmart stores, and employs about 70,000 people.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/sears-bankruptcya-cautionary-talefor-hedge-fund-managers-1539619499?mod=hp_DAY_2
  • Your Financial Adviser’s ‘Sleep Easy’ Portfolio May Be Riskier Than You Think: The 60/40 Portfolio
    Your Financial Adviser’s ‘Sleep Easy’ Portfolio May Be Riskier Than You Think
    Don’t you love these “may be“ statements? Hell - I “may be” the King of England. :)
    I’ve never viewed 60/40 as a sleep-well combination. It might, however, be described as “sleep better”. The 60/40 has a couple strikes against it today. First, the equity portion is priced at near multi-year highs. Secondly, the interest rate on the bond portion is still low by historical standards. I don’t have an answer to that dilemma. It’s fodder for further discussion - but that’s about all.
    I happen to like Dodge and Cox, But their very fine balanced fund, DODBX, did not stand up well during the ‘07-‘09 market rout. A couple of their equity funds lost more than 50% from peak to trough. Just guessing here - but DODBX did somewhat better, dropping perhaps 30-35% during that period. Like I said, Sleep a little better - but not well.
    Maybe some creative minds would like to offer up alternatives to a 60/40 fund for jittery investors who need some long term growth but are frightened by today’s high equity valuations and still low interest rates. Despite the currently running thread on how well cash is doing these days, I just can’t get excited about 2.5% - especially if it means locking-up your money for more than a year.
  • Why The Stock Market Went Loco
    FYI: That was the question on investors’ minds after a 1,300-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday and Thursday. “It,” of course, is a correction, or worse, in what had been a steady, nearly unstoppable ascent in the U.S. stock market.
    While the decline was arrested for the moment Friday, the major averages ended the week with their steepest losses since the week ended March 23. The Dow ended down 4.2%, the S&P 500 fell 4.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.7%. That was a far sight better than the 7.6% plunge in the Shanghai Composite but in line with declines in other bourses, from the Stoxx Europe 600 to Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 to Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-stock-market-went-loco-1539361320?mod=hp_LEAD_3
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack: Guests: Jason Zweig & James Grant
    Thanks for the link. I figured I'd post VMSXX mentioned in the interview.
    Money market funds are more easily researched directly through the fund house's website.
    Here's Vanguard's link:
    Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund (VMSXX)
    As a comparison. Here's Fidelity tax free MM Fund:
    Fidelity® Municipal Money Market Fund (FTEXX)
    and,
    Fidelity® Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund (FMOXX)
    T. Rowe Price:
    Tax-Exempt Money Fund (PTEXX)
    Outside the Tax free space what is your "cash" Mutual Fund choice? My research leads to THOPX.
    Others on my radar:
    BBBMX
    CLMVX
    FCONX
    TRBUX
    UUSTX
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through September 2018
    Always appreciate these refinements. In this case, under Risk in the Miraculous Multi-Search tool, it would be helpful to know, e.g., how the following may be calculated by curious minds:
    Choosing POGRX, for example, or any other fund of your choice:
    This fund’s Standard Deviation (STDEV or Std Dev) is 16.7, which measures the annualized volatility of its returns. Read STDEV in conjunction with your fund’s APR of 15.4. A fund with an APR of 15.4 and STDEV of 16.7 is telling you “we’ve averaged 15.4, but you’d have to endure returns that range from -1.3 to 32.1 in order to get there.”
    Thoughts?
  • Here's what to hide out if market countinue to tumble
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/heres-where-to-hide-out-if-market-continues-to-tumble.html
    Several utilities exchange-traded funds have done well over the last week despite the market drop, including the Reaves Utilities ETF.
    Several consumer staples funds also fell less than the market, including the iShares Evolved U.S. Consumer Staples ETF.
    Funds that track steadier stocks like the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF could also do well.