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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • John Waggoner: Is It Time To Go International ?
    I understand why J. Bogle is not into International funds. There aren't a lot of Vanguard International Funds that I would want either. I do own VMVFX, along with GLFOX and GGSOX which are global funds, and FMIJX is my only truly International fund sans U.S.
    You mentioned VMVFX which is a nice global minimum volatility fund with an ER of 0.25%, VWIGX with an ER of 0.32% and that is up over 18% YTD and if your want to index broadly, VFWIX or VGTSX are very good inexpensive funds.
  • Rondure Funds now open
    GPEOX = predominantly small-micro (<$5 billion)
    RNWOX = all-cap (> $1.5 billion)
    May be some, but GP also seeks higher growth than Rondure, supposedly.
  • Don't Sell In May: Stock Market's Momentum May Prove The Old Adage Wrong This Year: Text & Video
    For me, the "Sell in May" strategy has worked more times than not. I have never sold competely out of equities but generally sell down certain equity holdings and then redeploy the money somewhere in the equity structure come late summer or early fall that I believe provides good opportunity. During the month of April the barometer indicated certain elements of the S&P 500 Index that the barometer tracks were in decline (going soft). Corporate Earnings was not one of them but both the breath and technical strength indicators indicated some softness was developing. I'm thinking this will soon show up with a decline in the Index's price unless these indicators reverse. This is the big reason I average in and out of the "Sell in May" strategy and don't go all in (or out) based upon the calendar alone. Currently, the barometer indicates that the Index is just barely in fair value territory with a reading of 146 as of Monday's May 1st close; but, extended. I have been in a gradual equity reduction mode since mid March.
    My market barometer provides information that assist me in both my exit (Where I reduce my allocation to equities.) and entry back into the market (Where I raise my allocation to equities).
    And, so it goes. To each, their own way.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Riverpark Wedgewood
    In terms of the track record....yes, the prospectus traces to privately managed accounts like institutional, pensions, etc. The retail funds represent ~15% of AUM. I'm not seeing the correlation that folks are trying to make from that.
    As for this critique..."BTW. 25 years is not a strategy, it is a career". I don't understand what point u are trying to make?
  • Riverpark Wedgewood
    You are correct Junkster, the fund was allowed to use previous track record. I learned of the fund here from Mr. Snowball's fund profile. The first two years were good and the fund was discussed frequently. Not much discussion as of late. I did find it showing up in what are the best worst funds discovered on MFO. BTW. 25 years is not a strategy, it is a career. IMO. Thanks for everyone's comments.
  • Riverpark Wedgewood
    Certainly the last 3 years have been subpar. But Rolfe's selective approach to equities isn't always going to be aligned with the overall market. Their 10 yr return still holds up due to their outperformance in 2009.
    You can peruse longer term returns (~25 years) for the overall strategy on the fact sheet posted on their institutional site.
    Wedgewood Fact Sheet
    You obviously hold the fund and know more than me re. RWGFX and RWGIX. Morningstar shows inception in late 2010. Is the fact sheet performance information then based on the manager's track record before being offered to the public. And isn't that the point. That when an institutional manager with a great track opens a fund to the public........ It looks like it did well the first two years it was open to the public (the new fund effect) and then subpar vs its benchmark. It has made money for sure but isn't this just another example of passive beating active?
  • Riverpark Wedgewood
    Certainly the last 3 years have been subpar. But Rolfe's selective approach to equities isn't always going to be aligned with the overall market. Their 10 yr return still holds up due to their outperformance in 2009.
    You can peruse longer term returns (~25 years) for the overall strategy on the fact sheet posted on their institutional site.
    Wedgewood Fact Sheet
  • Rondure Funds now open
    http://www.rondureglobal.com/documents/rondureglobal-pr-20170501.pdf
    I was thinking on the overlap of the RONDURE NEW WORLD FUND (RNWOX) and GRANDEUR PEAK EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES FUND (GPEOX).
    Full Disclosure: I own SFGIX and GPEOX
  • Occam's Razor and Investing
    Hi Guys,
    Thank you for your comments.
    Simplification serves as a terrific guiding principle, but it definitely has its limits. As Albert Einstein said: "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
    Einstein's qualifier that ends the quote is a critical constraint that each of us applies differently. It is often a challenge to judge when oversimplification might lose important aspects of a problem. The risk that one investor finds acceptable possibly is flatly rejected by another investor. That's what allows a marketplace to function.
    I used expected return as a candidate model without specific numbers. For example, suppose one attractive investment had a 10% chance of success with a likely return which translates to an expected return that doubles the investment. Say an alternate investment had a 50% chance of success, but only a more modest likely return increase. That second investment has a lower expected return at a lower risk level. A decision tradeoff exists. That's common in the investment universe.
    The investor now has a difficult but simple choice that is a tradeoff between risk and reward. Everyone will do that tradeoff with his own special spin that reflects many variables such as time, circumstances and needs.
    Occam's Razor is not necessarily easy to apply. Simple doesn't always translate into easy in the decision making world. But simple is usually a better and more understandable decision in most instances.
    Best Wishes
  • Don't Sell In May: Stock Market's Momentum May Prove The Old Adage Wrong This Year: Text & Video
    FYI: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has performed even better during the summer months when it begins May in an uptrend, according to data compiled by analysts at Strategas.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/dont-sell-in-may-stock-markets-momentum-may-prove-the-old-adage-wrong-this-year.html
  • Josh Brown: Three Things That Will Never Change In Wealth Management
    FYI: I think there are three big ideas in the wealth management industry that will never change. There may be others, but to me, these are the big three.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/05/01/three-things-that-will-never-change-in-wealth-management/
  • Congress Small Cap Growth Fund in registration
    I guess there's no official position and very limited inquiry. That said, I'm not sure what would draw you to it. It's got a high correlation to its index (96-97 against the Russell 2000 Growth index over the past 3-, 5- and 10-year periods) despite a high active share. Over the past decade, its trailed its peers by 1.7% annually while offering very, very marginal gains in downside protection. Standard deviation, downside deviation, Ulcer Index, and bear market deviation are all within a point of its peers. All of the risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, Martin) are lowered than its peers. The adviser receives relatively rich compensation (95 bps) for its services, which leads to a noticeably high e.r.
    On whole, why bother?
  • Q&A With Paul Wick, Manager, Columbia Seligman Communications & Information Fund
    Ted
    Seems like Paul Wick is very tech hardware/infrastructure heavy in his picks......
    The big alpha has been made in he ad mobile media tech segment in recent
    years. Is the tech evolution passing this experienced 54 year old manager..?
  • Occam's Razor and Investing
    Hi Guys,
    Today, I came across an article that discussed Occam's Razor. I believe that simple is always better than complex when options exist. Here is a Link to that article:
    https://www.farnamstreetblog.com
    I expected that the article would investigate Occam's Razor's application to investing. I was wrong. However, I did recall earlier articles that did address its application to the investment world. A quick web search uncovered the following piece by Rick Ferri. Here is the Link to the Ferri work:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/03/07/occams-razor-on-investing/#c1ae17e58ab2
    Please give it a read. It concludes with a useful observation.: "index funds has a higher probability for reaching your financial goals." Wise words!
    The emphasis is on "probability". There are no certainties when investing. We operate in a world of uncertainties so the key is to select the option with the highest expected return. I'm using expected return as the probability of a successful outcome times it's likely payoff.
    Enjoy the references and good luck.
    ADDED THOUGHT: Since we are talking probabilities, we benefit greatly from diversification. It's prudent policy to not bet too much on anything. Make many (like 10 or more) uncorrelated bets.”
    Best Regards
  • MCRDX vs. MAINX
    Looking at these 2 funds portfolio composition shows these are different
    asian debt funds
    MAINX is 50 % corporate debt, 35 % govt debt
    24 % of the debt is rated A to BBB-
    60 % is exposed to the US dollar
    duration is approx 3.5
    MCRDX is 67 % corporate debt, 11% govt debt
    4.6 % of the debt is rated BBB- (0% A rated debt)
    88 % is exposed to the US dollar
    duration approx 3.5
    data sets dated 3-31-2017
    MCRDX appears to be lower quality debt that is a play on the continued
    strengthening of the US dollar.
    These 2 funds IMO are not the same and should return different amounts
    as the US dollar trends either up or down.
    I feel an investor can include PREMX and FNMIX (to name a few) with these
    2 Mathews funds as EM debt exposure that in 2017 is mostly a bet on the
    future strength of the US dollar, as each fund must make a decision as to
    its currency exposure. (note the beta in EM debt funds immediately after
    the Trump election)
    At this time (3-31-2017) MAINX looks to be a more conservative fund
    for US investors. But I think neither should be considered low risk.
  • questions ahead of Morningstar
    Hi, Crash!
    Here's what I got back from the Morningstar folks though, in reality, it might be best for us to hook you up directly with one of their data folks.
    David
    ---
    “The user “Crash” notes “X-Raying my portfolio at Morningstar. "Projected Earnings Per Share Growth" over the next 5 years = 10.78%, where the SP 500 standard is 1. (Or does the constant 1 just apply to SP 500 YIELD, in the next column?) So, the thing is telling me that, compared to SP 500, my portf is projected to grow earnings at 4.83%. That's 4.83 times better than SP 500? What did I do right?”
    Morningstar.com’s Portfolio Manager X-Ray value for Projected EPS Growth - 5 Year %, available at http://portfolio.morningstar.com/Rtport/Reg/XRayOverview.aspx, is an aggregation of the same projected five-year EPS growth for stocks - including those owned through funds - within the user’s portfolio. For a stock, projected five-year EPS growth is the mean estimate of long-term EPS growth, derived from estimates by analysts who cover the stock. The five-year earnings growth forecast shows what the consensus is among analysts concerning the company's long-term growth rate. For a mutual fund (and other managed products), projected five-year earnings growth is essentially a weighted average of the five-year EPS growth estimates of each fund's stock holdings, though there are some refinements made in aggregating the underlying numbers.
    As a baseline for comparison the projected five-year EPS growth for the S&P 500 is 2.22% as of 4/27/2017. A portfolio with a Projected EPS Growth - 5 yr of 2.22% would be equal to the S&P 500, or 1.0 relative to the S&P 500. A simple portfolio of just Apple Inc stock, which has a projected five-year EPS growth of 6.8% is 3.06 times better as measured relative to the S&P 500.
    Crash notes the Projected EPS Growth - 5 yr for their portfolio is 10.78%. Relative to the S&P 500’s 2.22% that is 4.83 times better than S&P 500 which is likely what shows in the “Relative to the S&P 500” column for this portfolio. To unpack where that is coming from I would suggest adding the same column of Projected EPS Growth (%) - 5 Year to the “My View” at http://portfolio.morningstar.com/Rtport/Reg/MyView.aspx (click “Customize My View.”) That added column will break down the projected five-year EPS growth by holding to give a sense of which holdings are contributing a higher value than the S&P 500’s 2.22%.”
    Best regards,
    Mary Kenefake
    Communications Specialist, Corporate Communications
  • Riverpark Wedgewood
    @brbrock , fwiw, I use GTLOX as my large cap pure equity fund, but other opinions to use the S&P500 index are good suggestions. The fund you are in is a fairly concentrated fund and apparently the managers stock picking ability has not been good.
  • Riverpark Wedgewood
    Would like member's thoughts on this fund. I've held it for 4 or 5 years although I have reduced my holdings in it at least once. When I read the Manager's reports, he sounds like just the guy I want looking over my money. But then there's the performance issue. I've search this website for discussion of this fund but everything I find is quite old when the fund was performing. I like the potential downside protection but not at this cost. Who do you like better in this space. Schwab 401k account.
    Let this be a learning experience about buying a fund because an institutional manager with a great track record opens a fund for retail investors. I have seen that story played out over and over and more often than not with subpar results.