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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M*: 3 Bond Funds You May Be Tempted To Buy But Shouldn't: (THOPX) - (NHMRX) - (LSFYX)
    For buy-and-hold investors, I don’t see the problem with THOPX. I owned it for a while, including its swoon a few years ago, but its returns over 1, 3, 5, 10 years have been excellent. I don’t understand why M* bashes funds like THOPX but continues to tout funds like MWTRX that have had miserable returns in recent years while becoming bloated with assets. Many so-called quality bond funds have gotten killed by rising interest rates and have seemingly done little or nothing to ease the pain for investors. As long as interest rates continue to rise, investors seeking quality apparently would be better served by ultrashort bond funds, money markets or CD ladders.
  • Ben Carlson: A Lost Decade Of Dollar Cost Averaging
    "By way of comparison, simply investing that same $500/month in one-month t-bills would have given you more than $67k"...without the volatility and sleepless nights. Entering these two scenarios into Portfolio Visualizer produced slightly different, but similar results...along with a lot of other interesting data such as not a single negative yearly return for ST Treasuries.
    image
  • RPSIX TRP "Spectrum" ?
    Good analysis by several. I like the ultra-short (TRBUX) mentioned above. Use it as a “cash equivalent” (Not all ultra-shorts are managed as well.). Yet, even over the shorter 5 year period, it lags RPSIX by about a point and a half. So, if willing to tolerate a little more volatility, investors would have been better off in RPSIX.
    Another income fund I own is DODIX. i’ve long allowed a smaller portion (no greater than 50%) to count as part of my “cash equivalent” holdings. Of course it’s not really cash - but for allocation purposes I’m willing to include it. DODIX has a longer history than TRBUX. So a 10 year comparison is possible. Here RPSIX still wins with a 6.28% return while DODIX netted 5.61%. Again - you need be willing to accept more volatility to reap the additional income with RPSIX.
    While I’m not “married” to TRP (borrowing Crash’s words), it’s my single largest fund manager and has 100% of my Traditiinal IRA. So, I’ll stick with the 15% allocation to RPSIX. We’ve known for 10 years that bonds would suffer when the emergency Fed easing slowed or stopped and rates normalized / rose. Nothing too startling here. Yes, the foreign securities have taken a toll on the fund. I thought PRELX a brilliant idea when introduced. Unlike most of their international / EM bond funds, Price does not hedge this one against currency fluxuations. So the strong dollar has really hurt it. I’ve owned it before but doubt I will again.
  • M*: 3 Bond Funds You May Be Tempted To Buy But Shouldn't: (THOPX) - (NHMRX) - (LSFYX)
    FYI: It’s easy to identify funds with strong records. But as my colleague Russ Kinnel noted recently, it takes more than a strong record to earn a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold, Silver, or Bronze. Those medals reflect our expectation that a fund will be a standout performer in the future, and that requires a deeper investigation into a fund’s fundamentals to determine whether it has a sustainable competitive advantage. If our analysts aren’t convinced that a fund can continue to deliver strong results, they’ll assign it a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Neutral or possibly Negative.
    When a fund with a great record earns a Neutral rating, we get questions. In the world of bond funds, the reason our analysts take a skeptical view of past performance often comes down to risk. We ask ourselves the following questions:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/883540/3-bond-funds-you-may-be-tempted-to-buy-but-shouldn.html
  • Ben Carlson: A Lost Decade Of Dollar Cost Averaging
    FYI: (The Linkster has never been a fan of DCA.)
    Investors who dutifully put money into the stock market on a periodic basis over the decade ended in 2009 would have felt dejected when looking at their statements.
    If you started dollar cost averaging $500/month into the S&P 500 in January of 2000, by December of 2009 you would have invested $60,000 in total. This strategy would have netted you a whopping $64k and change, not much more than the amount saved. By way of comparison, simply investing that same $500/month in one-month t-bills would have given you more than $67k.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/a-lost-decade-of-dollar-cost-averaging/
  • RPSIX TRP "Spectrum" ?
    I’ve owned RPSIX for 15+ years because it seemed like the best option available at TRP and provides a broadly diversified income exposure. This is its worst year I can remember in comparison to comparable funds and it seems to be due to its large stakes in PRCIX (New Income) and foreign/EM bonds. As a result, it has performed poorly as interest rates have risen. So, for the first time ever, I shifted about two-thirds of my holding in RPSIX to other less interest-rate sensitive bonds funds — namely TRBUX (ultra short) and PRFRX (floating rate). When interest rates finally seem to be stabilizing, I will probably move the money back into RPSIX.
    In the past, RPSIX’s primary weakness was its 10-20% stake in dividend stocks, which hurt returns in bear markets. However, this year has shown that it’s also vulnerable to rising interest rates.
  • Robot ETF leaves pros in dust, scoring wins on small-cap fliers
    Anyone owe this etf?!
    https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8976543-robot-etf-leaves-pros-in-dust-scoring-wins-on-small-cap-fliers/
    News Oct 19, 2018 by Sarah Ponczek Bloomberg
    Everyone knows fund managers can't keep up with benchmarks, and the last 12 months have been particularly grim. So when it turns out an exchange-traded fund supposedly driven by artificial intelligence has managed the feat, people take notice.
  • RPSIX TRP "Spectrum" ?
    Hi Derf. Thanks. Not sure what your numbers reference. M* breaks down the credit quality of RPSIX’s bond holdings. (If you include the fund’s 10% equity holding in the total, the following percentages would be a bit lower.)
    Here’s the non-investment grade percentages from M*
    BB 11.4%
    B 15.76%
    Below B 4.4%
    Not Rated 1.4%
    Total 33% (+ -)
    So, in addition to the 10% equity position, it appears that close to 30% of the fund’s total holdings are in non-investment grade bonds. The puzzle remains as to why it hasn’t performed a little better.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Rate Hikes Hit Credit Cards; Hit Them Back
    Thanks@ Ted,
    I'm contemplating the following. Using a credit card offer for 12 month at 0%. The CC has a flat $35 transfer fee and would allow me to pay off a 3.5% personal loan one year early. Paying that loan off 12 months early would save me $525 in interest.
    Just one way of managing short term debt in a low interest rate environment.
  • RPSIX TRP "Spectrum" ?
    35.43% 21.30%
    AA 3.44% 5.17%
    A 9.80% 12.78%
    BBB 18.30% 20.79%
    BB 11.41% 18.68%
    B 15.76% 14.29%
    Below B 4.43% 4.40%
    Not Rated 1.42% 2.58%
    Percent of Long Fixed Income Assets
    RPSIX
    Credit Rating
    Multisector Bond
    Average
    Chart
    35.43%
    AAA
    Chart
    21.30%
    AAA
    Is this what your looking for ? RPSIX on left _ Category Ave. on right.
    Derf
  • RPSIX TRP "Spectrum" ?
    I’m intrigued myself about the fund’s lackluster performance. But like I said earlier, it’s a hard one to classify. Even Lipper (where I normally look) has it scored 3 (out of 5. Over 5 years it hasn’t even beaten their ultra-short (TRBUX) by a full two points. Go figure.
    Exposure to PRFDX (Equity Income Fund) seems to have helped in recent years, so rule that one out as the detractor. All I can think is it might be tilted heavier towards high quality (read “rate-sensitive”) bonds than I had assumed or might prefer.
    I think a fund like that ought to be able to hold 20-30% in below investment grade debt (and EM). I’ll guess RPSIX is not that high. Another thought: They probably have a good slug of inflation protected bonds in the mix - and those might have been a drag in recent years.
    Don’t have time to search for the credit quality breakdown. If anybody has that for RPSIX please share.
  • What Invesco Gets Out Of OpFunds
    FYI, OppenheimerFunds history:
    OppenheimerFunds’ beginnings can be traced back to the late 1950s and the brokerage firm Oppenheimer & Co. (OpCo). Near the end of that decade, OpCo entered the mutual fund business, first offering the Oppenheimer Fund to the public on May 15, 1959. Shortly after, OpCo created a subsidiary, Oppenheimer Management Corporation, to serve as the investment advisor to the Oppenheimer Fund. In 1996, Oppenheimer Management Corporation was renamed OppenheimerFunds, Inc.
    https://www.allianzlife.com/new-york/annuities/variable-investment-options/money-managers/oppenheimerfunds
    In 1983, Oppenheimer sold Oppenheimer Capital (apparently including Oppenheimer Management Corporation, later called OppenheimerFunds) to Mercantile House Holdings. In 1986, the management of Oppenheimer & Co. and the management of Oppenheimer Capital bought back Oppenheimer Capital, but not OppenheimerFunds.
    http://managerreview.com/su_companydetails.php?iCompanyId=2914&CompanyName=Oppenheimer Capital LLC
    "Mercantile had had little success in trying to create synergy between Oppenheimer and its London businesses." (NYTimes, Aug 21, 1985). Perhaps a lesson for Invesco?
    In 1990, Oppenheimer Management Corporation was acquired by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co (MassMutual).
    https://www.upi.com/Archives/1990/08/01/Massachusetts-Mutual-to-purchase-Oppenheimer/6609649483200/
    To make matters more confusing, in 1995, Oppenheimer Management Corp (by then owned by MassMutual) acquired a dozen of Oppenheimer Capital's Quest for Value funds. The two companies were not related (having split in 1986, see above).
    https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Oppenheimer+Management+Corp.+agrees+to+acquire+the+assets+of+12+Quest...-a017195335
  • Are Dividend Stocks Helping In Stock Market Correction? : (GULF)
    FYI: The top-performing ETFs that invest in dividend stocks this year have had a rough month amid the stock market correction, with several of them falling as much or more than the S&P 500.
    High-quality dividend stocks, those with strong earnings and solid balance sheets, often fall less than highflying growth stocks in stock market corrections.
    The top-performing dividend ETF this year, WisdomTree Middle East Dividend (GULF), fell a relatively modest 0.45% in the one-month period ended Oct. 17. That compares with a 4.97% drop by Victory Shares Dividend Accelerator (VSDA) and a 2.64% decline by the S&P 500, according to Morningstar Direct.
    Dividend Stocks In Correction
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/are-dividend-stocks-helping-in-stock-market-correction/
    M* Snapshot GULF:
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/XNAS/GULF/quote.html
  • Investors, Don't Lose Sleep Over The Midterm Elections
    FYI: The early October jolt of stock market volatility seemed to awaken investors briefly from a relative sense of calm and reminded us that pullbacks and downside risk are part of the price to be paid for upside performance.
    Despite just about every investing fear imaginable, any long-term snapshot of stock market performance will illustrate a persistent bias toward positive performance. Whether looking back 10, 50, 100 years or more, the basic economics of investing in a broad range of publicly traded companies is difficult to deny.
    On the subject of whether more market shake-ups are ahead, most financial advisers are rightly positioning the possible impact of the midterm elections along the lines of: "We're long-term investors" or "We don't have a crystal ball."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=pDfLW_bhBaOVjwTJrbTABw&q=Investors,+don't+lose+sleep+over+the+midterm+elections&btnK=Google+Search&oq=Investors,+don't+lose+sleep+over+the+midterm+elections&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3030.6789..8754...0.0..0.131.233.2j1......0....1j2..gws-wiz.....0..33i299.2_tpbvoSjLQ
  • What Invesco Gets Out Of OpFunds
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
    Buying OppenheimerFunds is Invesco's biggest deal yet, and Marty Flanagan says there are several key
    things that the publicly fund firm is getting from the combination.
    combination.
    And he confirms that there will be "expense synergies", though he declined to share details.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.mfwire.com/common/artprint2007.asp?storyID=58774&wireid=2
  • RPSIX TRP "Spectrum" ?
    RPSIX. Since I'm pretty well married to T Rowe, it looks like one of the best among a less than fabulous menu of bond funds. Is RPSIX worth throwing money into it? I've been window-shopping up and down that T Rowe bond lineup more than a few times...
    NO. I wouldn’t “throw money at it” @Crash.
    It is what it is - a conglomeration of many different types of income producing funds - ranging in quality from government bonds to junk and EM. I’d say it’s a good long-term repository for funds on which you want to earn better than money market rates - and don’t have any other use for.
    You likely won’t find it rated very high at M* and the others. But I don’t know how you can put the fund into any “category”. It’s unique to T. Rowe - dependent on the success of the roughly 15 different T. Rowe Price funds that comprise it. I’ve always held it. It represents about 15% of my overall allocation. But unlike some, I do not consider it a substitute for cash or short term-bonds.
    As you mention, the exposure to PRFDX makes it somewhat vulnerable to equity moves. They can allocate up to 25% to that fund. But 15% is the highest I can remember. RPSIX is having an uncharacteristically poor year. I don’t expect that to persist into the future (but could be wrong). Over the longer term I’d expect the fund to average maybe 2-4% above what a money market fund will net - with decent downside protection against an equity sell off. Bond risk? Because it’s so widely diversified it shouldn’t be as susceptible to a hit from rising rates as many other types of bond funds - Just MHO.
    Yes, I’ll agree with you that bonds are not Price’s strong point. There’s better bond managers. On the other hand, they do understand allocation strategies very well (but are often too early in their calls).
    @Crash - The fund report (available on their website) will have a chart (near the back) showing both the “target” and “current” percentages to all the funds it holds. If you don’t care for most of those funds, you shouldn’t buy RPSIX.
  • Where to now?
    @sea: Hold you healthcare fund !
    Regards,
    Ted
    Thank you Ted, I will (they are ETFs).
    @sea
    When" things level out" is when I feel that it is the right time for me whenever that is. It is when I think the downturn may have hit bottom. Will I be right. Maybe yes maybe not, but so far my gut,research,and some luck let me retire at the age of 54. I do not sweat this sort of stuff anyhow. How about you?
    I'm not sweating, because I need such downturns to get in some funds and buy on the cheap, and in the belief that the market will inevitably go back up. What I regret is not taking profit in my EM fund at the peak when I had 40%+ gains. I'm learning a lesson not to own too many funds, so that I can keep an eye on each and every one I own and take action when called for.
  • Muni bonds sport attractive yields for retirees By
    VTMFX holds 51% of its fund in tax free munis while also holding 48% in LC/MC equities with a 9% turnover and a 2% yield. A solid choice for someone looking for a tax efficient balance fund. ER = 0.09%
    image
  • Separated at Birth: Fund Share Classes and CIT Funds
    Was it a CIT or an a clone offered inside an annuity? That's common at smaller companies. If it was the latter, it should be possible to find info in the plan docs that separate out the underlying clone cost from the annuity wrapper fee. (Not that it matters, because your friend pays the total cost, regardless of who gets the money - the insurance company or the underlying fund manager.)
    I believe that 401k plans are allowed to have opt-out provisions, but not mandatory ones. That is, you can't be required to invest in a default fund. Though a plan can specify a default and you wind up invested there if you don't actively opt out.
    ---
    The column doesn't do a great job of explaining clones, as it lumps multiple share classes of one fund (VFINX et al.) with a share class (VIIIX) of different fund that is a clone of the Vanguard 500 fund. I added a comment there to that effect.
    One place where that distinction matters is in taxable accounts. It's often possible to do a tax-free exchange from one share class to another of the same fund. But AFAIK you can't do that between share classes of clones.