Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M*: Investors Prefer Bonds
    FYI: Taxable bond funds remained popular last month, and the sector equity category group took a surprising second place.
    Despite expectations of rising rates, taxable bond was once again the most popular category group in September with $34.9 billion inflows overall, significantly higher than the $27.5 billion it had received in August. In a reversal from the previous month, passive taxable-bond flows surpassed active ones: $20.5 billion versus $14.4 billion.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=830210
  • Cash Alternatives
    Interest rates and yields have climbed enough to take another look at where to put cash, even if the answers haven't changed. For example, VMMXX now sports an APY of 1.14%, and FZDXX ($10K min in IRA) has an APY of 1.11%. Those are comparable to FDIC-insured savings accounts, but not quite high enough to justify the added risk of MMFs. Nevertheless, high enough to consider in brokerage accounts such as IRAs where moving cash isn't easy.
    It still depends on why you're holding cash, where (e.g. IRA or taxable) you're holding it, and what your time horizon is. I still think I-bonds are great if you're holding for more than a year and you can live with their coarse granularity (you can only cash out a complete savings bond, not a partial amount of a few dollars).
    If you've got a time horizon comfortably longer than a year, and are looking to invest cash in a taxable account, I'm still fond of short to short/intermediate funds. VMLUX goes way back, and is one of the more conservatively managed funds of that breed.
    The team (well, two of the three) managing BTMIX (started in 2015) goes back to BMO muni funds. Duane McAllister goes back the furthest, co-managing MUISX (ultra-short) from inception (2009) until moving to Baird, and MTFIX (short term) from inception (2012) until moving to Baird. Those would be the closest match funds. To get an idea of his 2008 success, you can also look at MITFX, that he co-managed from 2007 until moving to Baird. Not quite what expatsp asked for (a fund history back through 2008), but still something to hang your hat on.
  • Cash Alternatives
    expatsp said: “A whole lot of ultra-short bond funds crashed and burned then.” Absolutely correct. That’s where I think we sometimes miss the boat in not appreciating the culture of the fund family behind a fund. I don’t worry about TRP running an ultra-short. They consistently err on the side of caution in their lower risk offerings. Their in house research is tops. Were such a fund run by just about anyone else, I’d worry more.
    -
    Not sure why this old post was resurrected. My prophesy a year ago that TRBUX would soon be yielding over 2% proved wrong. TRP puts its current 30-day annualized dividend yield at 1.73%. But the NAV has gained a penny to $5.02. As I may have mentioned back than, for purposes of exchanges Price allows the same flexibility with TRBUX they do with their money market funds. That’s the only reason I’m not using their short term bond fund, PRWBX instead for cash. Want to be able to take advantage of compelling buying opportunities if / when they arise without the frequent trading restrictions.
    As one of the older and more conservative here, I’m probably higher on cash than most. No problem. Am comfortable sacrificing a couple percentage points return over shorter periods for the added stability and downside protection cash affords. My allocation model is 75% “Core” and 25% “Flexible.” The Core (largely set in stone) consists of various types of conservative / moderate allocation funds and smaller allocations to a global bond fund and some real asset funds. The flexible portion contains both equity funds and cash. It allows me to add or take risk off the table as I wish. Currently, the Flex portion is heavily weighted towards cash, which consists of insured bank deposits, TRBUX, and a smaller slug of DODIX.
    Fortunate to have a good pension and Social Security. Don’t keep any separate cash reserve as most do. I feel I’m conservatively enough positioned to continue withdrawing distributions no matter where the market runs. And, it occurs to me that this must be the type of approach the “new” income funds at Price and elsewhere adhere to.
  • Will These New Retirement Funds Catch On?
    This time, this is not even a follow up, but a duplicate. From the article:
    MFO: New Target-Date Funds Are Geared For Withdrawal Time
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/35821/new-target-date-funds-are-geared-for-withdrawal-time
    Having taken a closer look at the TRP fund, it appears to be simply another managed payout fund, like VPGDX. As such, it's not a new type of fund. The Vanguard fund targets a 4% payout based on the fund's value over the past three years, while TRLAX targets a 5% payout based on the fund's value over the past five years. I haven't compared glide paths.
    The Fidelity funds, in contrast, claim that they're designed for RMD distributions, but don't manage the payouts. So ISTM that what's new with them is the marketing pitch, not the funds themselves.
    Managed payout funds (including the TRP fund, but not the Fidelity funds) seem designed for people who want an annuity (cash stream) but are unwilling to cede control or ownership. As MikeM highlighted in his quote of Wade Pfau, if what you want is a cash stream and potential legacy, annuities are still the better way to go.
  • State drop down boxes
    @msf,
    You made my day with that one...Octothorpe!
    #######
  • TD Ameritrade's Expanded Commission-Free ETF Program
    ... for your individual taxable account. Then there's your joint account. Your UGMA account, etc. Not to mention that if you ever, ever opened an account with Robinhood before via ACAT, from TDA or anyone else, they won't pay for this transfer.
    If one doesn't have experience with them, why would one jump to a relatively unknown (FWIW I was already aware of this brokerage) company just to "save" 75 bucks? As Lewis suggested, going with smaller companies may (or may not) carry risks and limitations that call for additional research.
    Since you suggested Robinhood, perhaps you can help with some of that research by sharing any experiences you've had with them?
  • Vanguard: An Analysis Of Dividend-Oriented Equity Strategies
    This is a follow-up to a previous thread, or perhaps a better description might be a prequel. The other thread cited an ETF.com/Sweedroe column that discussed (and cited) the Vanguard paper quoted above:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/35360/larry-swedroe-vanguard-debunks-dividend-myth
  • Geology Trends For Investors of VGPMX (and other PM & NR Mutual Funds)
    When you think of electric batteries for power walls and electric vehicles do you think of Nickel? You should. Materials are a vital part of any technological system. I came across this website which looks at geology from a investor's perspective.
    There’s a revolution going on in the auto industry right now. Tesla, Inc. has proven demand for electric vehicles (EV’s) and invited the entire industry to join in the fun. From the Bolt to the Volt, from the Focus to the Leaf, pure electric and hybrid cars are pouring off the assembly lines in ever greater numbers. In their own way they are picking a new class of winners in the metals space. This article will briefly discuss some of the rationale behind the excitement and the implications for the demand and use of metals in the future.
    Metals and Electric Cars – A Revolution in the Making
    and,
    7 Commodity Winners In Electric Car Revolution:
    7+Commodity+Winners+In+Electric+Car+Revolution
    A quick screening (highest 3 yr Sharpe Ratio) for Funds in this space:
    image
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017
    @davidrmoran Let us know the results of your research. I'm looking to sell some equities & take some risk off the table too. Right now as a cash alternative I've got some money in two conservative bond funds but am looking for other options. Though a little more cash (I'm at about 15%, plus 5% each in the above funds) also feels appealing right now.
  • Will These New Retirement Funds Catch On?
    @MikeM, In the article the author mentioned that the "newness" of TRLAX will rely upon the rolling average of TRRBX to determine its 5% payout. At least that is how I read it.
    Quote:
    Since the fund is new, it initially will base payouts on the five-year NAV history of T. Rowe Price Retirement 2020 Fund, a 15-year-old target-date fund that uses the same underlying strategy.
  • Will These New Retirement Funds Catch On?
    TRRBX which has been around since 2002 has a pretty stellar record (rank in category):
    image
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack: Guest: Richard Bookstaber, University Of California Pension
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    October 12, 2017
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    This week marked the 30th anniversary of the October 19th, 1987 market crash when the blue chip Dow plummeted nearly 25%, behaving like the shakiest of emerging markets. It’s a stark contrast to the market’s current behavior which is eerily subdued and trading at record highs.
    What caused the Dow to drop 508 points on that single day, now forever known as Black Monday? As Ben Levisohn wrote in his excellent article in Barron’s titled Black Monday 2.O: The Next Machine-Driven Meltdown:
    “…experts found a culprit: so-called portfolio insurance, a quantitative tool designed to use futures contracts to protect against market losses. Instead, it created a poisonous feedback loop, as automated selling begat more of the same.”
    Fast forward 30 years, and that type of automated trading program seems almost quaint. Quantitative, rules-based systems known as algorithms, computer- based trading programs and strategies have grown exponentially in number, trading volume and complexity since then. And as Barron’s Levisohn wrote: “…bear a resemblance to those blamed for Black Monday.”
    How risky are the markets now?
    That is the focus of this week’s WEALTHTRACK and our guest, a leading expert on risk. We’ll be joined by Richard Bookstaber, Chief Risk Officer in the Office of the Chief Investment Officer for the $110 billion University of California Pension and Endowment portfolios. Bookstaber has had chief risk officer roles at major investment firms ranging from hedge funds Bridgewater and Moore Capital to investment banks Morgan Stanley and Salomon Brothers. From 2009 to 2015 he switched to the public sector, working at the SEC and U.S. Treasury. Among his projects was helping build out the risk management structure for the Financial Stability Oversight Council and drafting the Volcker Rule which restricts proprietary trading by banks.
    Bookstaber is also an author of two highly regarded books on financial risk. His most recent is The End of Theory: Financial Crises, The Failure of Economics, and the Sweep of Human Interaction. His first, A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds and the Perils of Financial Innovation, published in 2007 presciently warned of the perils of the explosion of financial derivatives, some of which he helped create.
    In a 2007 WEALTHTRACK appearance he alerted us about the twin risks of high leverage and complex financial instruments. How right he was. On this week’s show we will discuss the new risks he sees in the markets now, some created by regulations created to solve the old ones!
    If you’d like to see the show before it airs, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. We also have an EXTRA interview with Bookstaber about his new book, which can be seen exclusively on our website. Also, a reminder that WEALTHTRACK is available as a YouTube Channel, so if you are unable to join us for the show on television, you can watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com, or by subscribing to our YouTube Channel.
    Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo

  • John Waggoner: Best Performing Funds Since '87 Crash
    FYI: If you started saving 30 years ago, you got a quick education in the worst Mr. Market can dish out. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 508 points, or 22.61%, the worst one-day crash in history. Those who weren’t scared out of the stock market have done well: The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has gained an average 9.59% since then. But a few funds have done exceptionally well and are being run by the same management team today. Here are the stock funds that have done the best since Wall Street’s darkest day.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20171019/FREE/101909999/PH
    1. Federated Kaufmann (KAUFX)
    2. Vanguard PRIMECAP (VPMCX)
    3. Janus Henderson Small-Cap Value (JSIVX)
    4. Wasatch Small Cap Growth Investor (WAAEX)
    5. First Eagle Fund of America (FEAFX)
    6. ClearBridge Aggressive Growth (SHRAX)
    7. Gabelli Asset (GABAX)
    8. Ariel Fund (ARGFX)
    9. Heartland Value Investor (HRTVX)
    10. Elfun Trusts (ELFNX)
  • Larry Swedroe: Performance Fees Add Risk
    FYI: A 2015 study of global pension assets from Towers Watson revealed that the 16 largest pension markets in the world increased their allocations to alternative asset classes from about 5% in 1995 to 20% in 2015.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-performance-fees-add-risk
  • Merrill Edge To Market To The Great Unwashed
    Yes. Merrill went ahead and implemented the DOL rule in retirement accounts effective the original day in June. One still can continue trading as self-directed and pay 6.95 per equity trade and get mutual funds etc. .45 fiduciary stuff provides strategic risk based asset allocation and rebalancing with cheap etfs for those who cant do it themselves and starts at $5000 minimum. .85% service includes a larger fund selection and a human being to talk to... i believe the min is $25k. Note that all models are created by the CIO office and are of institutional quality from open architecture platform. Mutual fund shares within those are either advisory or institutional, depending on the company.
    And then there is merrill lynch, a full service brokerage: financial planning, behaviorial, alternatives, financing, etc. All new retirement accounts have been fee-based fiduciary relationships since june, or none. Taxable could be any.
    Hope this clarifies the new post-DOL arrangement at merrill somewhat.
  • State drop down boxes
    This website will help you "get a human" at a variety of different companies when you call:
    gethuman.com/phone-number
    As an example, I typed in Eversource (my Electric Utility Company) and got this:
    image
  • Vanguard Taps Experience And Expertise Of Wellington To Manage New Global Balanced Funds
    Thanks @Ted and @TheShadow for bringing these funds and this article to the board.
    I came across another article (I linked below) back in May, but in light of these funds introduction I thought it was worthy of re-posting. The article looks at using an single open ended mutual fund as the sole source for a 4% withdrawal rate in retirement.
    VWINX was one of the funds research and the winner of the back test.
    Just wondering if MFOers feel that a globally managed fund like Global Wellesley might serve a similar role in a retirement distribution strategy?
    Article:
    long-term-growing-income-open-end-mutual-fund-possible
    MFO discussion on VWINX:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/33358/vwinx
  • TD Ameritrade's Expanded Commission-Free ETF Program

    Robinhood will cover any fees charged by your old brokerage.
    Only for your first transfer into Robinhood.
    https://support.robinhood.com/hc/en-us/articles/115001535326-Stock-Transfer