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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mark Hulbert: The Single Best Investment For The Next Decade
    @johnN said:
    so what is the best plans? buy all these vehicles?
    There is a saying a carpenter told me about 15 years ago when he was helping my wife and I build our first retirement home. It goes "Its kind of hard saying without really knowing." A decade is a long time. So, that saying pretty well answers Mark Hulbert's question about the single best investment for that period of time. Having said that, I would pick my largest portfolio holding, RPGAX, to answer the question. It has a broad multi-asset mandate, a fair amount of investment flexibility, and a top notch management team. That seems like a good mix for facing all the unknowns a decade's worth of crystal ball gazing brings to mind. Thinking more short term and small scale with a "Its A Low Interest Rate World" frame of reference, I just took a small, speculative nibble at MNR a few days ago.
  • Mark Hulbert: The Single Best Investment For The Next Decade
    OREAX tops FRIFX at: 1, 5 and 10 years (per Lipper). I wasn’t touting the fund, just commenting on the asset class overall. As you might recall, I have no brokerage accounts, Just some money directly with a few houses. Actually, now that Oppenheimer has been taken over by Invesco it appears my investment options have broadened quite a bit.
    yes, my bad, I shoulda stuck w FRESX only
  • Mark Hulbert: The Single Best Investment For The Next Decade
    @hank You commented...
    I’ll say I continue to be amazed by the performance of real estate funds. Maintain a small “nibble” in OREAX - and the danged thing is up 19% YTD (20% after today) - following on the heels of several other good years. I keep expecting it to fall off a cliff - but hasn’t yet.

    It looks like OREAX lost about 6% in 2018 when there was increased concern about rising interest rates. That concern has faded this year. Maybe REITS will continue to make sense as long as we remain in a low interest rate world.....
    @davfor - Thanks for the dose of reality. I’d overlooked the nasty 2018 swoon in many markets. Also, I tend to use Price’s TRREX interchangeably with Oppenheimer’s OREAX. Nothing to do with which is better - but dictated more by logistics, since I invest directly with both companies. Looks like on March 6 of this year I shifted 100% from TRREX to OREAX (by moving funds around at each house).
    Wish I hadn’t deleted my running list of exchanges from about 5-6 years ago. However, I did buy into OREAX (umm ... maybe 2012 or 2013) after it had sustained a nasty licking. Was really in the cellar at the time. Yes - the falling rates have helped REITS. Personally I suspect they’re overvalued - but sticking to my normal allocation is the plan. You never can call the markets exactly right.
    Regards
  • Why Most People Will Never Be Good At Investing
    Pardon me if I’m wrong. But isn’t that the reason we buy mutual funds? To hire someone else to do our investing for us? I don’t know if I’d be any good at investing or not. Never bought or sold an individual stock or bond. I do know that some fund managers are better than others and some fund houses run a better shop than some others.
    I’ve been in and out of more fund houses in my near 50 years in the markets than I care to think about. Some that failed to satisfy me for one reason or another: Franklin/Templeton, Strong Funds, American Century, Calimos, TIAA-Creff, Hussman, Gateway, James Funds, Janus, Delaware, and most recently Oakmark.
    The company I trust most to do it right and to do it with integrity is T. Rowe Price. However, Dodge & Cox is also a favorite.
  • Mark Hulbert: The Single Best Investment For The Next Decade
    OREAX tops FRIFX at: 1, 5 and 10 years (per Lipper). I wasn’t touting the fund, just commenting on the asset class overall. As you might recall, I have no brokerage accounts, Just some money directly with a few houses. Actually, now that Oppenheimer has been taken over by Invesco it appears my investment options have broadened quite a bit.
  • Fidelity Draws Adviser Wrath With 1.9% Cash Offer
    SPAXX is classified as a government MMF, meaning that it invests in government securities and is considered safe enough by the SEC that it is not required to impose redemption fees and/or redemption gates (freezes on withdrawals) in times of stress.
    https://www.schwabfunds.com/public/file/P-8077046
    But it is not a Treasury fund. Last year only 56.16% of its income came from government securities such as Treasuries that are state tax exempt. Note that if that figure drops below 50%, then none of its income will be exempt from taxes in Calif., NY, or Conn.
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/taxes/2018-gse.pdf
    Fidelity's Treasury Only MMF (100% Treasuries) is FDLXX with a 7 day yield of 1.82% (7/31/19). Fidelity also has a "Treasury" MMF, FZFXX, with a 7 day yield of 2.01% (7/31/19). But only 40.06% of income from this fund came from Treasuries and other state-exempt securities last year. So none of its income was exempt from state taxes in Calif., NY, or Conn.
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    @Ted. Thanks for the link. Nice to know you’re “on the job.”
    @Edmund - I agree with everything you said. Not recommending longer term bonds. I’m saying very few investors need the absolute, concrete, never-wavering NAV that money market mutual funds provide. The SEC mandated reforms following the ‘07-‘09 fiasco pretty much neutered these vehicles. They’re now so constrained as to what they can invest in that one might as well deposit the funds in a FDIC insured bank account.
    Well-run ultra-short, TRBUX, is an excellent example of a “near cash instrument” to which you refer. It should net about 1% better over time than a money market fund with very minimal price fluctuation. It’s so stable you can use it as a checking account (I do). The other one I suggested, DODIX, is more volatile. Expect to lose 2-4% in the occasional off-year. But these are pretty smart investors (at D&C). They offer no money market fund and are not into taking big risks with this one. Not stable enough to write checks against, but very stable compared to most anything else in the investment universe. Personally, I maintain about a 50/50 blend of the two mentioned funds in my “cash” portfolio.
    OK - 90 year old widows probably shouldn’t be taking any degree of risk with their cash stash. But for most of us there are better alternatives to money market funds.
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    Hank, to address your question below, here is my perspective: The return of bond funds since the mid-Dec 2018 lows are primarily price-appreciation. Go take a look at the charts of quality bond funds/ETFs. Its like a rocket, and approaching (or at) long-term resistance levels. I don't find it probable that appreciation like we have seen can be extrapolated much further. At least not without some type of correction.
    OTOH, as I scan current SEC yields of various quality bond ETFs today, I note AGG's yield is 2.47%, while ICSH's yield (an ultra-low duration bond ETF) is 2.62%. Meanwhile, AGG's duration is 6.0, while ICSH is 0.3.
    Based on bond prices here and now (not from 8-9 months ago), cash & near-cash instruments look like a better risk/reward proposition at this time. Obviously, if Treasury yields head to 0%, I will be kicking myself.
    Is there a link here?

    I’m curious what the reasons for the surge in money market funds might be
    . The return seems paltry. Over past year, money market mutual funds returned an average 1.97%. VG’s did slightly better at 2.35%. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/VMMXX (Need to click on “Price & Performance”.)
    Geez - Give me anything but one of these .... A night in Vegas? Online poker? Clean the attic and sell some antiques?
    A couple alternatives to money market funds for folks with at least a few years time horizon and able to live with some principal fluctuation: TRBUX- one year 3.51%, DODIX - one year 8.17%
  • Fidelity Draws Adviser Wrath With 1.9% Cash Offer
    I am a very conservative investor, so cash-management is probably more important to me than it is to many other investors who believe they should "keep their money working" (i.e. fully/near-fully invested). I also happen to use Fidelity.
    Frankly, I could not be happier with the liquidity options provided by Fidelity. My "core fund" of choice is SPAXX -- A Trsy MMF. Its 7-day yield (at 8/7/19) is 1.86%. Prior to the recent, severe downdraft in rates, I leaned heavily on laddered T-bills to boost my cash yields, going out as far as 6 months. Buys/sells of T-bills are NTF at Fidelity. For those who prefer CDs, Fidelity offers a "supermarket" of those.
    Since the rate downdraft, I've shifted excess cash reserves to 2 ultra low-duration NTF ETFs, ICSH & FLDR. they are both yielding ~ 2.5%.
    I see an ample number of attractive liquidity options (given the reality of the rate structure) at Fidelity. Methinks some advisers doth protest too much.
  • Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back.
    From OJ's WSJ excerpt(s): "The problem is particularly acute in the fast-growing market for “structured” debt—securities using pools of loans such as commercial and residential mortgages, student loans and other borrowings."
    CLOs etc. seem to be the main target of the article, but there's also a brief mention of corp (and gov't) debt. I've been wondering about corp issues ever since learning of the recent, huge slugs of corp debt that's been given BBB ratings, now amounting to ~ 50% of that market. How much of it was rated on the rosy side and is in reality just plain corporate junk?
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    @ Hank: Thanks ! As a matter of fact I moved money out of MVRXX and bought additional CD's Over the next nintey days, I'll make about .25% more. Its not much, but I'd rather have the money in my pocket than the brokers.
    Regards,
    Ted :)
  • Fidelity's Money-Market Fund Assets Surged 20% In Past Year
    Is there a link here?
    I’m curious what the reasons for the surge in money market funds might be. The return seems paltry. Over past year, money market mutual funds returned an average 1.97%. VG’s did slightly better at 2.35%. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/VMMXX (Need to click on “Price & Performance”.)
    Geez - Give me anything but one of these .... A night in Vegas? Online poker? Clean the attic and sell some antiques?
    A couple alternatives to money market funds for folks with at least a few years time horizon and able to live with some principal fluctuation: TRBUX- one year 3.51%, DODIX - one year 8.17%
  • Mark Hulbert: The Single Best Investment For The Next Decade
    FYI: “For money you wouldn’t need for more than 10 years, which ONE of the following do you think would be the best way to invest it—stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold/metals, or bitcoin/cryptocurrency?”
    That question was recently asked of more than a thousand investors in a recent Bankrate survey, and the winner—by a large margin—was real estate. For every two respondents who answered stocks there were more than three who said real estate is the way to go.
    Are these investors onto something? Have financial planners been wrong all these years? For this column I mine the historical data for answers.
    On the face of it, the respondents to the survey need to go back to their history books, as pointed out in a recent column by my colleague Catey Hill. Since 1890, U.S. real estate has produced an annualized return above inflation of just 0.4%, as judged by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the consumer-price index. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.53% (or its predecessor indexes) did far better, outpacing inflation at a 6.3% annualized rate (when including dividends).
    Even long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds outperformed real estate, producing an annualized inflation-adjusted total return of 2.7%. Check out the chart below:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-single-best-investment-for-the-next-decade-2019-08-08/print
  • Fidelity Dogged Again By 401(k) Quid-Pro-Quo Allegations
    FYI: Fidelity Investments has again been accused of engaging in a quid-pro-quo type relationship with a 401(k) plan sponsor, which allegedly cost employee retirement savers millions of dollars in return for bigger profits.
    The latest episode involves the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which has been accused of retaining Fidelity's 401(k) record-keeping services and investment funds, despite counsel to do otherwise from attorneys and consultants, with the expectation that Fidelity and co-owner Abigail Johnson would make a large donation to the university.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=V_FLXdqSAs3VtAbs_qCQAw&q=Fidelity+Dogged+Again+By+401(k)+Quid-Pro-Quo+Allegations&oq=Fidelity+Dogged+Again+By+401(k)+Quid-Pro-Quo+Allegations&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3348.3348..4459...0.0..0.375.531.0j1j0j1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.....0.X31mYZ_KEgo&ved=0ahUKEwiamrnagPPjAhXNKs0KHWw_CDIQ4dUDCAc&uact=5
  • Widely Followed Risk-Return Measures For Stock Portfolios Debunked: Sharpe Ratio/Sortino Ratio
    I think all modern port stats fall into the "past performance is not predictive" category, as in, why would we even think they would or could be predictive? It's about probabilities, not prediction, and even in that realm their utility depends on market, manager, and portfolio factors being at least fairly consistent in the future with what they've been over whatever past period (3y, 5y, etc.) we're looking at.
    Their utility is also limited to comparing funds with similar characteristics, e.g., within similar categories. Accept the limitations, and they can be plenty useful.
  • Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back.
    Following are selected excerpts from a current lengthy and very detailed Wall Street Journal article. They have been significantly edited in the interest of brevity: a read of the entire WSJ article is suggested.
    Inflated bond ratings were one cause of the financial crisis. A decade later, there is evidence they persist. In the hottest parts of the booming bond market, S&P and its competitors are giving increasingly optimistic ratings as they fight for market share.
    All six main ratings firms have since 2012 changed some criteria for judging the riskiness of bonds in ways that were followed by jumps in market share, at least temporarily, a Wall Street Journal examination found. These firms compete with one another to rate the debt of borrowers, who pay for the ratings and have an incentive to pick rosier ones.
    There are signs some investors are skeptical. Some bonds in markets where ratings criteria have been eased don’t trade at the high bond prices their ratings suggest they should. Investors have also shown skepticism about ratings on some corporate and government bonds.
    “We don’t trust the ratings,” says Greg Michaud, director of real estate at Voya Investment Management, which holds $21 billion in commercial-real-estate debt.
    The problem is particularly acute in the fast-growing market for “structured” debt—securities using pools of loans such as commercial and residential mortgages, student loans and other borrowings. The deals are carved into different slices, or “tranches,” each with varying risks and returns, which means rating firms are crucial to their creation.
    The Journal analyzed about 30,000 ratings within a $3 trillion database of structured securities issued between 2008 and 2019. The Journal’s analysis suggests a key regulatory remedy to improve rating quality—promoting competition—has backfired. DBRS, Kroll and Morningstar were more likely to give higher grades than Moody’s, S&P and Fitch on the same bonds. Sometimes one firm called a security junk and another gave a triple-A rating deeming it supersafe.
    Two fast-growing structured-bond sectors are commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, and collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs. CMBS fund deals for hotels, shopping malls and the like. CLOs are backed by corporate loans to risky borrowers, typically to fund buyouts.
    In a May speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell compared CLOs to precrisis mortgage-backed debt: “Once again, we see a category of debt that is growing faster than the income of the borrowers even as lenders loosen underwriting standards.”
    Behind the ratings inflation is a long-acknowledged flaw Washington didn’t fix: Entities that issue bonds—state and local governments, hotel and mall financiers, companies—also pay for their ratings. Issuers have incentive to hire the most lenient rating firm, because interest payments are lower on higher-rated bonds. Increased competition lets issuers more easily shop around for the best outcome.
    Rating analysts say their firms have lost deals because they wouldn’t provide the desired ratings.
    In the first half of 2015, S&P’s share of ratings in the $600 billion CLO market hit a five-year low. That fall S&P changed its methodology to make it easier for CLOs to get higher ratings. When S&P again proposed loosening its criteria this year, a group representing more than 100 professional bond investors wrote a letter to the company, reviewed by the Journal, saying the changes “will lead to a weakening of credit protection for investors at a time where we need it most.” S&P proceeded.
    Moody’s ratings on riskier slices of these multi-borrower deals often weren’t as favorable as those of its competitors. By 2015, issuers “essentially stopped soliciting our ratings” on those slices, according to a January commentary from the company. In October 2015, Moody’s eased its rating methodology for single-asset CMBS deals.
    In 2016 Fitch [gave] itself wider latitude to use easier rating assumptions.
    Investors say ratings inflation is most evident in commercial-mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, of which investors hold about $1.2 trillion. When rating a security higher than their three big competitors, Morningstar, Kroll and DBRS were around two rungs more generous, on average. Some ratings were a dozen or more rungs higher, potentially the difference between junk bonds and triple-A.
    A group of professional investors in 2015 complained about inflated ratings to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Adam Hayden, who manages a $13 billion securities portfolio at New York Life Insurance Co.’s real-estate-investment arm, was among the investors who met with the SEC. He said inflated ratings were a risk to market stability, according to a meeting memo obtained by the Journal.
    The SEC didn’t implement their recommendations.

    Note: All bold emphasis was added.
  • Widely Followed Risk-Return Measures For Stock Portfolios Debunked: Sharpe Ratio/Sortino Ratio
    FYI: Two financial ratios Wall Street uses to rate different portfolios’ risk-adjusted performances have come under sharp criticism, including from one of the ratio’s own inventors.
    The better-known of the two, the Sharpe ratio, was first published in 1964 by William (Bill) Sharpe. It ranks portfolios by their “excess” return above holding low-yielding but safe Treasury bills. The ratio is adjusted for the amount a portfolio’s value deviates from a constant growth rate. In 1990, along with other economists, Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics for this and additional formulas.
    A competing measure, the Sortino ratio, was announced in 1980. Developed by Frank Sortino, then a finance professor at San Francisco State University, it was considered an improvement for several reasons.
    Most notably, the Sortino ratio only counts a portfolio’s downside deviation against it. A portfolio is not penalized for upside surprises, which the Sharpe ratio does.
    In a rather shocking turn of events, Sortino has turned against both the Sharpe ratio and the formula that bears his own name. He’s developed an entirely new risk-adjusted ranking system that shows promise.
    In his latest book, “The Sortino Framework for Constructing Portfolios” (Elsevier), the now-retired professor announced an improved ratio named Desired Target Rate-alpha (DTR-a).
    Sortino and his book’s collaborators ranked the risk-adjusted returns of scores of mutual funds using all three ratios. The results are eye-opening.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/widely-followed-risk-return-measure-for-stock-portfolios-is-debunked-after-55-years-2019-08-07/print
  • Limbo ! Limbo! On CD Rates
    Hi sir @_Ted, my colleague at work pickup CDs few months ago ~> 2.7%, is this yield real?
    will buy ford bond YTM > 6% cusip 345370BS8 price 119
  • Limbo ! Limbo! On CD Rates
    FYI: Had Franklin SYN Bank CD 2.50% purchasd on 12/3//19 mature today. Replaced it with Bank Of China NY CD maturing on 11/18/19 at 2.00%. Anything more than 90 days less than 2%.
    Regards,
    Ted