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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • An ETF That Hides Its Secret Sauce Is Poised For Regulator's Nod
    Personally, I think transparency is overrated (how many people read their fund's quarterly disclosures, let alone check the holdings day by day?).
    Nevertheless, I'm unclear on what your concern is. Currently, no funds, not even actively managed ETFs, disclose their holdings more than daily. Authorized participant (AP) trading is based on portfolio composition files and indicative values, not on knowing exactly what's in the fund. So even now, ISTM AP trades are based on imperfect indicative values.
    As far as passively managed ETFs go, some don't even disclose their holdings except monthly (and even then, with a lag). Again, what APs are buying and selling is based on portfolio composition files (baskets) which do not match what is in the fund (especially for index funds that use sampling to track their benchmark index and may be using the baskets to tweak their holdings).
    Maybe (actually I'm sure) I need to think this through some more. Still, I've always felt that transparency is not the big deal that ETF proponents make it out to be.
    M*, The Most Over- and Undersold Benefits of ETFs
    Related M* video: Are ETFs Overrated?
  • A Fund’s Long Time Frame: Forever: (AKREX)
    FYI: Akre Focus Fund (AKREX) takes buy-and-hold investing to heart, often holding the same small group of stocks for years at a time.
    The $9.8 billion mutual fund, which was up more than 19% in the first quarter of this year, currently has 22 holdings that the fund managers believe compound shareholder capital at above-average rates of return. Investments are made based on four criteria, says John Neff, one of the fund’s portfolio managers.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-funds-long-time-frame-forever-11554688920
    M* Snapshot AKREX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/akrex/quote.html
  • M*: What’s Your Investment Faith?
    FYI: In "The Active Dangers of Passive Investing," on a website serving financial advisors called Advisor Perspectives, guest columnist Vitaly Katsenelson writes:
    "If you own the S&P 500 (or long-term bonds), you implicitly think one of several things is true: 1) Interest rates have a zero or insignificant probability of going up; 2) I'll be able to get out in time; or 3) I have a life-sized statue of John Bogle in my living room, and I have a very, very, very long time horizon."
    Purchasing long-term investment assets requires trust. Doing so involves handing over a valuable possession--that is, money--with no guarantee that the sum will be returned in full (as expressed in real terms), except for certain inflation-protected securities. Investing is an act of faith.
    However, as Katsenelson suggests, views differ. Your reason for owning long-term assets may not match mine.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/922789/whats-your-investment-faith.html
  • FAANG's $800 Billion Rally Has Mom And Pop Calling It Quits
    FYI: After a three-month rally that’s added more than $800 billion to the value of FAANG stocks, individual investors have decided it’s time to cash out of the high-flying names.
    Retail clients at brokerage TD Ameritrade increased their overall exposure to equity markets for a second consecutive month in March, yet they sold shares of Amazon Inc., Facebook Inc., Netflix Inc. and Apple Inc. All four members of the so-called FAANG cohort -- which also includes Google parent Alphabet Inc. -- have gained at least 35 percent since stocks bottomed on Christmas Eve, one-and-a-half times the S&P 500’s return.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/faang-s--800-billion-rally-has-mom-and-pop-calling-it-quits-44227.html?print
  • WSJ Category Kings Include MWMZX
    @BenWP, I don't follow MOAT but I've seen it mentioned (very little) here at MFO in the past. A quick glance in M* shows it to be a pretty nice fund. But, "clocked' DSENX? In 2018 maybe. But in any case, both strategies seem successful in comparison to the S&P 500 and large value or Large blend overall. What I do like about it is it is heaviest HC and Tech, both sectors I think are worth overweighting long term. Thanks for the tip.
    DSENX
    YTD 18.3
    1Y 12.7
    3Y 16.7
    5Y 14.4
    MOAT
    YTD 15.9
    1Y 16.2
    3Y 17.8
    5Y 11.9
  • WSJ Category Kings Include MWMZX
    Recent discussion here decried the absence of online Category Kings on the WSJ site. Today the compilations appeared in the "Investing in Funds" monthly section, albeit with only 5 entries per category. Hiding at #2 in Multicap Core we find the Van Eck Morningstar Wide-Moat OEF, MWMZX. Don't rush out to buy it unless you have $1M or can avoid the restricted status. I wonder why it exists and why the WSJ can't do a better job of bringing us funds we can actually buy. The leading performing fund this month is a Fidelity fund almost no one can access. The Van Eck OEF appears to be a clone of the very successful MOAT ETF that I have mentioned here before. MOAT has outperformed the SPY over 3 and 5 year periods and it has also clocked the favorites of a couple of board members, DSEEX and DSENX over almost any time period.
    I have not researched this comparison, but my conclusions are that the M* wide-moat strategy is by far the most successful of those affiliated with an investment publication. I looked at Barron's BFOR, the MotleyFool funds, the ValueLine funds, and Eddy Effenbien's Crossing Wall Street. There must be others I don't know of. The MOAT ETF strategy has spawned MOTI, DURA, and GOAT, although the latter three have not attracted many investors. I'd suggest the global GOAT to any member who is reeling from poor NCAA bracket choices. BTW, am I indeed the only MFO discussant to own MOAT? For the record, I also hold DSENX and CAPE.
  • And The No. 1 Stock-Fund Manager Is… (FAOFX)
    FYI: What a difference three months can make in the world of top-performing mutual-fund managers.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/and-the-no-1-stock-fund-manager-is-11554689520?mod=article_inline
  • Old Skeet''s Market Barometer Report & Thinking for April 2019 ... April 26th Update
    @johnN: The link below will take you to a December 2015 post that I made about my asset allocation. It seems, I was at this time just moving to about 20% cash, 30% income, 35% growth and income and 15% growth asset allocation. Prior to that, based upon my recollection, I was at about 15% cash, 25% income, 40% growth & income and 20% growth asset allocation. Most likely, I was at an asset allocation of about 10% cash, 20% income, 40% growth & income and 30% growth during the time span you inquired about (2009-2010).
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/24926/old-skeet-s-new-portfolio-asset-allocations-2016#latest
    I'll keep looking and if I come up with something else I'll post it.
    And, here is something else that I came up with that dates back to March of 2012 as how I went about adjusting my asset allocation. Perhaps, it will be of some interest.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/2501/a-system-i-use-to-adjust-my-asset-allocation#latest
    As you can see through the years; and, as I have aged, I have reduced my allocation to equities and raised my allocation to income while cash has stayed about the same except when I was positioned for the 2009-2010 stock market rebound. Back then cash was at about 10%. One reason that I hold excess cash is that it provides me the opportunity to open special equity spiff positions form time-to-time should I feel this is warranted. This is something that I have done for a good number of years ... and, I still do form time-to-time. However, I did not put a spiff in play during the last market swoon (4th Quarter of 2018) as I was in the process of rebalancing and reconfiguring my portfolio. Howerver, I did leave myself +5% equity heavy during this last rebalance process to tactically overweighting equities from my newely established asset allocation of 20% Cash, 40% Income, 30% Gr & Inc and 10% Growth. With this, my Growth Area is now +5% heavy while my Cash Area is -5% light from their neutral positions due to this tactical overweight positioning in equities.
  • How to pay less in taxes by making smart investment decisions
    In addition, REITs are now somewhat more attractive to own outside of tax shelters, because they get a Section 199A 20% reduction in taxes. That is, whatever income they pass through, you get to deduct 20% of that. So if you're in the 22% tax bracket, you'll owe a net 17.6% (80% x 22%).
    Still higher than the 15% cap gains rate, but not by very much. Something to consider if you're looking to generate income, or if you've already filled your IRA with bonds that are taxed at a higher rate.
    http://www.2ndmarketcapital.com/reits/reit-benefits/ (quick and dirty summary)
  • Have Multiple Retirement Accounts? Use Them In This Order
    ...
    (With nonretirement-account losses able to 'detax' any gains for years to come, I have been pondering recently, as I raise cashflow from both rollovers and Roths per ORP, whether the taxfree future of my Roths really matters.)
    Different ways of viewing it for sure. In pure dollars and cents the linked article probably makes sense. Did 3 conversions. First & biggest in March ‘09. Motivation was primarily to reduce by at least 50% the RMDs that would be coming down the road in a few more years. (And there are years when the only distribution comes from the traditional.)
    While they’re invested conservatively (like the traditional IRAs) I vowed never to keep a cash position in any of the Roths. That has probaby made the biggest difference in their outperformance. Also, I avoid holding newer untested funds in the Roths. Deserve a bit extra care.
  • Have Multiple Retirement Accounts? Use Them In This Order
    I’m doing it all wrong.
    First, I’ve allowed my Roths to outperform my Traditional IRAs over the years. Roths now comprise over 65% of IRA assets. Worse yet, if I need $10,000, I take $5,000 from the Traditional and $5,000 from the Roth. This leaves an immediate tax liability on $5,000 (instead of $10,000).
    But always willing to learn something from the links board.
  • Will An ‘Unsustainable’ Rally In Stocks & Bonds Extend A Soaring Quarter For ‘Sleep-Easy’ Portfolios
    Interesting short read. The rally is fun while it lasts and certainly a relief after quarter four of last year. The two largest holdings in my portfolio each have about 50% in stocks with the balance in bonds and other diversifying stuff. Everything seemed to click for them in quarter one. RPGAX was at +9.1% and GDMZX was at +8.8%. (A head shake followed by a triple check of the end of quarter numbers confirmed that's what happened.) I can not imagine it will be smooth sailing for the entire balance of the year. But this was a welcome start....
  • A Great Way For Retirees To Have Predictable Income
    Again, thanks to Ted for linking to the Barron's article via Marketwatch.
    Worth repeating: Recommended portfolio size for investing in individual bonds:
    Treasuries only: "'We would recommend starting with a minimum of $50,000, with at least 10 bonds in $5,000 increments,' says Brian Therien ...at Edward Jones."
    Corporates: "Investors interested in venturing into slightly riskier bonds that offer better yields—though it’s best to stick with AAA-rated municipal bonds or corporate bonds—will [have a] ... minimum investment for a laddered portfolio ... closer to $250,000."
  • The Muni-Bond Mania
    Who is benefiting is obvious even without reading this WSJ editorial.
    State tax-free income became more valuable to those who could no longer deduct state income taxes (SALT limitations), i.e. the very high earners in low income/low property value states and the middle class and above in high income/high property value states.
    Consequently, states have to pay somewhat less interest on the bonds. This allows them to borrow more, but also benefits these taxpayers who ultimately bear the cost of state expenditures.
    ----
    Muni bond investors likely know that two of the NRSROs (Moody's and Fitch) "recalibrated" their muni bond ratings in 2010. That is, they changed the curve on which they graded muni bonds, because AA muni bonds tended to be as safe as AAA corporates. So formerly AA munis were changed to AAA and so on.
    This editorial challenges the recalibration, asserting that this lowered rates on muni bonds. Of course interest rates dropped. If a bond looks safer buyers demand less interest. However, nowhere does the editorial suggest that the recalibration was inaccurate.
    My question is, given this professed concern by the Editorial Board in the accuracy of NRSROs, where was the WSJ back in 2007 when CDOs were all getting great ratings?
    https://www.mercatus.org/publication/brief-history-credit-rating-agencies-how-financial-regulation-entrenched-industrys-role
    ----
    Side note: I'm reading the column online at home courtesy of the library at a university in which I'm registered as a student. Registering and not sitting in on classes is actually less expensive than subscribing (not that this is why I sign up for classes - free access is just an added benefit.)
  • A Great Way For Retirees To Have Predictable Income
    FYI: Which way are interest rates headed? Retirees have been asking this question for the better part of a decade—and that conundrum continues. Just when it seemed that rates were finally moving higher, the Federal Reserve turned dovish in late March, sending bond markets into a tizzy.
    Price fluctuations are a source of angst for investors who trade in and out of bonds, or own them in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. But for investors who own bonds to maturity, it’s no big deal. As long as an issuer doesn’t default, which is pretty rare, investors who own bonds until their expiration dates can count on getting back their initial investment, plus the interest they earned along the way.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/retirement-income-bond-ladders-51554500911?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch
  • Have Multiple Retirement Accounts? Use Them In This Order
    FYI: As an investor, it’s easy to blow it. You could sell too early, buy too late. Bet on a loser or pass over a winner. But often the most damaging mistake has nothing to do with the selection or timing of investments—it is carelessness when it comes to managing a portfolio for taxes. This is particularly important when you’re planning how you’ll take withdrawals for retirement income.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/have-multiple-retirement-accounts-use-them-in-this-order-51553425225?mod=mw_latestnews
  • Lewis Braham: New Ways To Generate Income From Cash
    Relative to the funds in the article (and the additional funds mentioned here), RPHYX doesn't look so impressive these days. It has an SEC yield of 2.10%. Clearly it's having difficulty meeting its objective of beating the 1 year Treasury (currently 2.4%, as noted by Lewis) by 200 - 400 bps.
    Currently, Treasuries are essentially flat from 1mo to 7 years. With that sort of curve (actually dipping in the middle), it makes little sense to me to try to eek out yield by going longer than ultrashort. Also, buying a one year CD or Treasury could serve as a hedge against rates dropping in the short term.
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
    Instead of keeping day-to-day money in a low/no interest checking account, one can keep money in Fidelity's SPRXX (2.25% SEC yield) or FZDXX (2.37% SEC yield) and write checks/pay bills directly from that fund. (Fidelity automatically sells the MMF if you have no cash in your core/transaction account.) Every penny helps.
  • The Muni-Bond Mania

    The Muni-Bond Mania
    Look who’s benefiting from the limit on state-and-local tax deduction.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-muni-bond-mania-11554422302
  • For Charles: IOFIX
    Yes, I too have seen the recent flattening, but no big drops fortunately.
    Like Junkster said, this past month it rebounded quite well:
    image
    Up 2.3% YTD. Hard to complain.
    Still 5% div.
    I don't see the move away from RMBS Crash mentions.
    @ MikeM. Yes, it's lumped in with MultiSector, but it's all about RMBS.
    Tom Miner remains (a jewel). And Garrett. And Brian. And Jonathan.
    Seems like nothing has changed in their thesis ... just the opposite I'd suggest, but I've not checked-in directly in a while (obsessed with making premium site priceless).
    I remain heavy IOFIX. (FWIW, I was once heavy FAAFX!)
    Hope all is well.
    c
  • For Charles: IOFIX
    See last large paragraph below (I suggest you view image in separate page and magnify). It begins: Except as noted below, all data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
    The exception is in the next (one line) paragraph: Market data for Daily Fund (NAVs) and charts provided by Markit on Demand.
    image