Ed Yardeni said TODAY that the bond market did it. FWIW, he also posted a warning on possible credit troubles YESTERDAY. Many were wondering about bond yields rising as stocks were falling.
Today - CNBC Interview
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/yardeni-research-inc._yardeni-research-on-cnbc-today-ed-yardeni-activity-7315870185117097985-tbmG?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU
Yesterday - Credit Warning
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/edward-yardeni_is-something-about-to-blow-up-in-the-credit-activity-7315569737210449920-370B?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU

Part 2 with Ed Yardeni:

Ed Yardeni reflects on the remarkable resilience of the US economy and markets over the years despite what happens in Washington and around the world.

https://youtu.be/gYLoUWIjISM

yardeni bumped his recession educated GUESS from 20% to 35%.
for some, that may be confirmation for reaching or staying at your lowest non-zero equity allocation, and he offers paid services for advice on shuffling specific portfolios whether timely or not.
the forecasting trade has much uncertainty no matter how good the process.
and for that reason only, dont go all-in or all-out.

March 22nd Episode:

Trump tariffs are upending financial markets, causing influential economist and strategist Ed Yardeni to turn from bullish to cautious.

https://youtu.be/9QLvhdYJ9-Y

NOTE: This is the FINAL report for 'The week that was'. All numbers for the shortened week and final totals for the 2024 year ending data is accurate, to the best of my knowledge, from sources.
FOR YOUR USE: Most of you are familiar with M* and the performance page. This LINK is set with FDGRX. Scroll down to the 'Trailing Returns' section for the most current data. BE SURE to verify the DATE of the data. Usually, the new data is available within 8 hours of the markets closing.
ADD: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
--- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
--- Explanation
Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
--- Origin
The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
--- Example
In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 31 , 2024. Bond NAV's Most positive. FINAL REPORT
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD SMALL GAINS for this 2 day week's pricing to END the 2024 year. The majority of bond sectors were UP for the 2 days of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly UP. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week/year.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 30 - December 31, 2024
***** This week (Wednesday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.28% yield (+4 basis points for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a positive .04 basis change in yield for the week.
--- AGG = +.27% / +1.31% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +5.94% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.21% / +3.92 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.39% / +1.81% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +.40% / -.64% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.17% / +1.65% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.17% / +4.74% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.25% / +4.30% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +.15% / -4.80% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +.27% / -8.06% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +.67% / -12.74% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +.37% / -16.13% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -.61% / +27.55% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +.65% / -35.93% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.31% / +1.85% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.06% / +5.46% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = +.18% / +.86% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = +.26% / +1.31% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = +.10% / +8.20% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.13% / +7.97 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.56%/+4.94% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.26% /+1.31% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +.28%/+5.54% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -1.07% / +10.06% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +.67% / +7.24% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.28% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

ADD #1: SOME BOND funds had distributions this week, which should be reflected in this weeks numbers, as provided by their sources.
ADD #2: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
--- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
--- Explanation
Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
--- Origin
The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
--- Example
In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 27 , 2024. Bond NAV's Mixed/Down for most + distributions
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD ANOTHER 'SMALLER' HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down most days of the week. Short duration were the better performing for the week, with longer duration continuing to get 'thumped'. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 23 - December 27, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.24% yield (-.13 basis points for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a negative .10 - .13 basis change in yield for the week.
--- AGG = -.33% / +1.04% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +5.85% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.04% / +3.70 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.21% / +1.42% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.57% / -1.03% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.16% / +1.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.06% / +4.56% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.02% / +4.05% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -.67% / -4.95% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.37% / -8.30% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.02% / -13.32% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.33% / -16.45% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +2.92% / +28.35% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -4.27% / -36.35% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.40% / +1.54% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.08% / +5.40% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = -.31% / +.68% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = -.24% / +1.05% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = +.24% / +8.10% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.04% / +7.83 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.83%/+4.36% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.04% /+.89% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.29%/+5.55% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -.30% / +11.25% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -1.33% / +6.52% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.24% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

ADD: A reported gauge monitored by the FED, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) slowed somewhat, may have helped support positive pricing on Friday for bond NAVs, via lower yields.
ADD #2: MANY BOND funds had distributions this week, which should be reflected in this weeks numbers, as provided by their sources.
ADD #3: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
--- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
--- Explanation
Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
--- Origin
The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
--- Example
In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 20 , 2024. Bond NAV's Another HEAD SLAP for most + distributions
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD ANOTHER HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down all day, with FRIDAY being the exception day. All durations pricing were down every day of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 16 - December 20, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.37% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a negative .05 - .07% basis change in yield for the week.
--- AGG = -.66% / +1.37% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +5.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.04% / +3.66 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.45% / +1.63% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.82% / -.46% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -1.00% / +1.64% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.37% / +4.50% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.45% / +4.07% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -2.24% / -4.31% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.66% / -7.03% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.31% / -11.54% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.69% / -14.46% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +3.69% / +24.74% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -5.66% / -33.51% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.72% / +1.95% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.12% / +5.31% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = -1.25% / +.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = -.59% / +1.29% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = -.24% / +7.84% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.53% / +7.87 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -1.40%/+3.49% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.73% /+.93% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -1.21%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -2.16% / +11.59% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.88% / +7.96% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.37% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

Increasing my positions in QQMNX and GONIX. Capped out on CPIEX and QLEIX.
Notwithstanding Yardeni bullishness, Berkshire cash position exceeding equity position is a huge warning sign plus reduced buybacks.

Berkshire off loading actions are the opposite of Yardeni who is super bullish. Is anybody hedging? What instruments are you utilizing? I'm leaning towards adding more to the LS/market neutral funds I have.

From Ed Yardeni today:
"We're sticking with our investment recommendation to Stay Home rather than to Go Global. In other words, overweight the US in global stock portfolios.
For now, we're also sticking with our subjective probabilities for the following three scenarios: Roaring 2020s (50%), 1990s-style stock market meltup (20%), and 1970s-style geopolitical crisis with a possible US debt crisis (30%). But we are considering raising the odds of the Roaring 2020s scenario as a looser regulatory environment and lower corporate and income taxes under Trump 2.0 should boost investment and propel productivity-led economic growth."

Ed Yardeni suggested that the Bond vilgilantees are back. Think @WABAC posted that question earlier.
It is nuts. The 10-year Treasury yield increases by 63 basis points to 4.25% since the FED announced a 50 basis point rate cut in September meeting.
https://yardeniquicktakes.com/bond-vigilantes-started-voting-early/

Today's Ed Yardeni column is titled : "Soft Patch Getting Softer Possibly Raising Odds of Fed Rate Cut in September & Stock Market Meltup"
Bad news is good news. until...bad news is bad news?

[S]aid Mr. Dooley, “no matther whether th’ constitution follows th’ flag or not, th’ supreme coort follows th’ iliction returns.

Perhaps the Fed anticipates them?

Today's Ed Yardeni column is titled : "Soft Patch Getting Softer Possibly Raising Odds of Fed Rate Cut in September & Stock Market Meltup"
Bad news is good news. until...bad news is bad news?

Thanks @bee. I particularly like Ed Yardeni. Short summary:
1. AI is a mathematical tool. His early adaptation to AI for writing monthly reports have encountered many errors. Cited several cases where AI encountered its limits on reliable usage.
2. Fewer rate cuts than expected due to strong consumer demand and tight labor market.
3 Concerns the worsening geopolitical conflicts across the globe with the adversaries such as Russia, China, etc. Recent rise of autocratic development including those in US are particularly alarming.
4. Still favors US stock market over foreign market, particularly S&P1500 to have exposure of mid and small cap stocks.
As an economist and Fed watch, Yardeni’s assessment is much more reliable compared to other pundits.

March 3oth Epsiode:
Ed Yardeni tackles why AI isn’t intelligent, economists have been so wrong and the bull market could continue.

Additionally, Yardeni see a broadening of the market beyond the large tech. He recommends S&P 1500 (so to include the smaller caps). Likely there is “no landing” this year since US economy is moving along well and low employment.
Yardeni is the most bullish comparing to the most that I come across.

Hopefully, the end of this bull market will not be reminiscent of the Stock Market Crash of 1929!
Ed Yardeni states that the economy and consumers are doing well.
He believes there are opportunities available in tech, industrials, financials, and energy.
Mr. Yardeni's "one investment for a diversified long-term portfolio" is the S&P 1500.

March 8 Episode:

Why leading strategist, Ed Yardeni says this bull market is reminiscent of the 1920s when stock prices soared, the economy was growing and technology was leading the way.

Podcast:
https://soundcloud.com/wealthtrack/the-roaring-2020s

The Roaring Twenties May Be Back (44 minutes)
Featured on Bloomberg recently. A half-decent, thoughtful appraisal of the current global investment climate. Yardini lays out several different scenarios going forward and offers up some “odds” on each occurring.

“Dr. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as chief investment strategist for Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. Dr. Yardeni taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He is frequently quoted in the financial press, including the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and Barron's.” Source