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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How Tariffs Could Shock America’s Power System
    If Tariff Baby's tantrum on Wednesday is as bad as folks think, how long before China and Russia retaliate by starting a coordinated dump of Treasuries in large numbers to royally destabilize the dollar and US role in the world economy? IMO that'd be a nuclear option, financially-speaking.
    (Of course, FOTUS is already blowing up the US' role in the world anyway...)
  • Trump cuts threaten a measurement lab critical for advanced chips and medical devices
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The Trump administration is planning to close a small, obscure laboratory whose work undergirds everything from microchip manufacturing to nuclear fusion.
    The Atomic Spectroscopy Group at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) provides the definitive measurements of atomic spectra. Spectra are specific sets of colors emitted by different atomic elements. Those sets of colors act as atomic fingerprints that are used to characterize a wide variety of things — from the gases in far-off stars, to the blood in a person's finger.
    The laboratory has been in continuous operation for more than 120 years, but in mid-April it will be forced to close, according to a letter sent by the lab's head, Yuri Ralchenko, to dozens of colleagues around the world.
    "We were recently informed that unless there is a major change in the Federal Government reorganization plans, the whole Atomic Spectroscopy Group will be laid off in a few weeks," Ralchenko wrote in the letter, which was emailed on March 18 and seen by NPR. The letter was first reported by Wired. Ralchenko says in the letter that he was told "our work is not considered to be statutorily essential for the NIST mission."
    But thousands of scientists and engineers disagree. A petition is now circulating to reverse the closure, and it had received close to 3,000 signatures as of Wednesday. Among the signatories is Nobel Prize-winning physicist Sheldon Glashow.
    "I cannot believe that the government would be stupid enough" to slash this kind of work, Glashow said in a video statement. The overwhelming support exists because the group's spectral measurements get used in almost every field imaginable, according to Elizabeth Goldschmidt, a physicist at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. "You look at the very specific color of a star, it can tell you the makeup of the star. You look at the blood in someone's finger ... and that can tell you how much oxygen is in the blood," she says.
    But to measure colors accurately, devices like telescopes and pulse oximeters must be correctly calibrated, and that's where the Atomic Spectroscopy Group comes in. The laboratory maintains a database of atomic spectra that are the standard reference used to ensure devices are functioning correctly. Every month, the database receives around 70,000 queries from around the world, according to a recent post about it on NIST's website — and it's cited in two research papers per day, according to a recent presentation by Ralchenko.
    Among the researchers querying the database is Brett Morris, an astronomer at the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Md. who works on NASA's James Webb Space Telescope. Morris is studying planets around distant stars. Sometimes he says, the light coming from those stars looks surprising. "The first thing you have to do is to figure out who's to blame — was it oxygen? Was it carbon? Was it neon?" he says. "And the resource for doing that is the database produced by the Atomic Spectroscopy Group."
    In addition, the laboratory conducts precise measurements of ultraviolet atomic spectra that are critical to developing advanced microchips. Ultraviolet light is used to etch tiny circuits, and advances in the field require detailed knowledge of the atomic spectra of elements in the extreme ultraviolet. There are a handful of facilities that research ultraviolet spectra, and this group is one of them, Goldschmidt says. It also studies plasmas, which are ionized gases that enshroud nuclear fusion reactions. Researchers around the world are pursuing fusion as a clean and virtually limitless form of energy, and detailed knowledge of plasmas is essential to that development.
    Neither NIST nor its parent agency, the Department of Commerce, responded to NPR's inquiries about the closure, but the savings from closing the lab would be minimal. NIST's annual budget is just $1.5 billion, less than 0.02% of the government's $7 trillion annual budget.
    image
    A silicon wafer with microchips etched into it. Microchips are etched using specific wavelengths of light. Better measurements of the wavelengths in ultraviolet light are required to advance chip manufacturing.
    Within NIST, the atomic spectroscopy group is made up of seven full-time federal employees. The group's employees even pay out of pocket for coffee and sugar used in its coffee breaks and have been doing so since 1973, according to a video celebrating its anniversary last year. By contrast, if the spectroscopy group closes, the costs will be enormous, scientists say. Researchers around the world will waste hours on the internet hunting around for the best spectral measurements, says Evgeny Stambulchik, a physicist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel.
    What currently takes a couple of minutes might soon take "many hours, maybe many days," Stambulchik says. "Multiply that several hours by several thousands of scientists and you understand the waste of work time there would be without such a centralized database," he says.
    But Goldschmidt says the real blow would be to industry. Having centralized and agreed-upon calibration and measurement standards "is what allows industries to innovate and make new products," she says. "Everyone wins when this happens at NIST because everyone can rely on what NIST does, and they don't have to invest their time and money in doing it themselves."
    Comment: Stupid, STUPID, STUPID !!!
  • Promised 25% Tariffs on Steel / Aluminum Rattle Commodities, Currencies and Stock Futures
    Short of launching a nuclear missile, it appears that the markets don't really care what Orange does.
    His tariffs are viewed as temporary bluffs, for the most part. The tearing apart of the US govt and our democracy also appear trivial to Mr. Market.
    Would be really nice if we could all learn to ignore him as well, but the media makes sure to echo his every musing or ramble. And der fuhrer wouldn't have it any other way.
  • SMRs
    Thanks. I will have to find the YouTube video you suggested to answer the following:
    Who is SK?
    Who built and licensed the UAE plant? Where did UAE get their operations personnel?
    Is the knowledge of builders of nuclear aircraft carriers not useful? Must we invent the wheel?
  • SMRs
    quick reply on SMRs from wealthtrack thread :
    am a big fan of nuclear power, but the technology is far down the list of issues.
    i suggest the podcast 'decoupled' ; it has covered the most (transparent) success cases have been canada , UAE, SK, and france; used old but well-proven technology via the largest scale plants. this success was largely due to a permanent experienced workforce coupled with actual scientists on the regulatory side. china may join the list here if they are are ever completely public about process and safety monitoring.
    for SMRs, there is currently no method to select nor combine the best ideas, as dozens of companies have IP and money at stake.
    but if this can be is done objectively, they must be mfg in VERY large numbers AND still have a permanent experienced workforce and protected from the whims of political interference. additional cost of a new grid model has a lot of unknowns, could it be more robust AND cheaper? probably not.
    the u.s. is about as far away from any of these scenarios as it has ever been.
  • Inflation watch- Your Coffee just went up (then down) by 50%
    From Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American:
    "Will Freeman of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy, posted: 'I can’t think of many *worse* strategic blunders for the U.S., as it competes w/ China, than going nuclear against its oldest strategic ally & last big country in S. America where it enjoys a trade advantage…. Trump certainly expects that b[ecause] 1/3 of Colombian exports go to the U.S. Petro will be forced to back down. But Petro seems to welcome the fight & has already signaled wishes to deepen ties w/ China. Colombia will lose partnership on security it badly needs. Only China stands to gain from this.'"
    I can't wait to see what other brilliant maneuvers are carried out
    by Trump, an undeniable strategic mastermind.
    His sensible actions will surely make our country great once again!
  • WealthTrack Show
    @a2z, thanks for sharing. Saved me time.
    what is your take on SMRs and nuclear in general from a climate and general impact on earth POV?
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    I tend to regard AI as having gone through three cycles:
    1. Late 1950s - 1960s. Think ELIZA
    https://www.livescience.com/technology/eliza-the-worlds-1st-chatbot-was-just-resurrected-from-60-year-old-computer-code
    2. Mid 1980s-1990s. Expert systems, machine learning/reasoning. Memory intensive for the time. The academic response was that we'll just wheel in another memory bank.
    3. Now. Generative AI. Power hungry. We'll just bring another nuclear reactor online.
    https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/09/26/1104516/three-mile-island-microsoft/
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    @WABAC,
    You know the guy likes to work the crowd (requires hyperbole). If Hollywood producers offered him to play the President on the screen, he could not have cared less for the responsibilities of the real one.
    I do not think he really has any agenda (other than Numero Uno and he is transparent about it) which allows him to change his mind constantly. I do not think he would object if the industry told him "let us not screw up the National Preserves" but we know that is not going to happen. Luckily, we have a Coalition of Single Issue Voters which means there should be a lot of internal conflicts and counterbalances within that coalition. That may save us from extreme outcomes. His new multi-billionaire tech buddies may push him to go full on into Nuclear. We (future Americans) will clean up later any damage done.
    I am thinking may be invest in Nuclear in the taxable accounts (long term view) and good old energy stuff in the IRA (for trading).
    The nice thing about a fund like GRID is that it doesn't depend on the energy source. Like a lot of things, it's pretty expensive right now.
    I generally agree with the rest of your comments. I was indulging my peculiar sense of humor. :)
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    @WABAC,
    You know the guy likes to work the crowd (requires hyperbole). If Hollywood producers offered him to play the President on the screen, he could not have cared less for the responsibilities of the real one.
    I do not think he really has any agenda (other than Numero Uno and he is transparent about it) which allows him to change his mind constantly. I do not think he would object if the industry told him "let us not screw up the National Preserves" but we know that is not going to happen. Luckily, we have a Coalition of Single Issue Voters which means there should be a lot of internal conflicts and counterbalances within that coalition. That may save us from extreme outcomes. His new multi-billionaire tech buddies may push him to go full on into Nuclear. We (future Americans) will clean up later any damage done.
    I am thinking may be invest in Nuclear in the taxable accounts (long term view) and good old energy stuff in the IRA (for trading).
  • GASFX... Other NG Funds May Power AI
    Interview with Evercore's James West:
    Evercore ISI senior managing director James West speaks more about whether fears of Trump's impact on the industry are overblown.
    "The fact remains that the IRA bill, which is the largest investment in climate and clean tech that the world has ever seen, is largely going to remain intact because 80% of the job creation and the capital spending is going to red states, or red districts, if not higher now that more states have flipped red," West tells Yahoo Finance.
    Clean energy producers and even nuclear energy developers have been posed as the solution to AI data center's energy demands.
    natural-gas-big-winner-powers Manufacturing and New Tech (AI)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Berkshire sold its BYD stake down to 5% from more than 20%, after holding it since 2008 (bought initially for approx $1 a share). That made me think may be battery technology does not have as much a future as is needed for non-nuclear renewable energy or may be he sold because he thought as a Chinese company, it could face headwinds in the global markets. OR both reasons. Obviously, I do not take his official reasoning on its face value. He bought and sold TSM quickly on questionable US-China relations, which I understood.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I also own NLR CCJ and GRID. I am a bit suspicious of SMR as their first project sorta died. It seems obvious if this country has run small nuclear reactors on submarines and large surface ships, we can design and rum small reactors for Data farms etc
    I think infrastructure and Grid enhancements the "picks and shovels" of Climate change and AI are better bets than stocks selling for 34 times Sales, ie NVDA
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    last week I bought a few thousand SMR and OKLO to increase my nuclear energy investments.
    WOW up 75%!!! Unfortunately the "few thousand " was dollars, not shares
    SMRs will allow decentralized infrastructure, increasing national security, lower Grid costs, etc. lots of benefits and practical.
    If SMR (Small modular reactors) take off, then what is the future for all the EV car companies, which is really a play on innovations in battery technology. E.g., Tesla, BYD, etc.?
    I am waiting Berkshire Energy to get into SMRs.
    Disclosure: I own NLR.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    last week I bought a few thousand SMR and OKLO to increase my nuclear energy investments.
    WOW up 75%!!! Unfortunately the "few thousand " was dollars, not shares
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "Bottom line is it will be impossible to contain global warming and meet power needs without nuclear, which may still be cleaner than coal and the environmental damage from fracking etc."
    Yes, my thought also. It's going to take wind, solar, and (unfortunately) also nuclear to get where we need to go. Best of some bad choices.
    There could be solar on every roof and parking lot in the Phoenix metro, but our utilities haven't figured out how to get richer on it.
    Here's something California ought to be thinking about. Dinky linky.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @sma3 …the reason UTES is up >42% is due to their holdings in Vistra and Constellation, and the renaissance of modern nuclear energy generation.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "Bottom line is it will be impossible to contain global warming and meet power needs without nuclear, which may still be cleaner than coal and the environmental damage from fracking etc."
    Yes, my thought also. It's going to take wind, solar, and (unfortunately) also nuclear to get where we need to go. Best of some bad choices.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    NYT has a "nuclear power is a disaster" article harking back to Three Mile Island, which I remember well. I saw "China Syndrome" the day before three mile Island cratered. Talk about life imitating fiction!
    The New Yorker had a three part article ( remember those?) about what went wrong. It was basically operator stupidity. You would think AI and better computerization wol fix this.
    Bottom line is it will be impossible to contain global warming and meet power needs without nuclear, which may still be cleaner than coal and the environmental damage from fracking etc.
    I can't imagine restarting Three Mile ISland will be easy or cheap.
    Other ideas worth considering are NLR, URanium ( has had a huge move up) and even SMR ( modular nuclear reactors which have yet to have a successful installation and even Sam Altman backed OKLO. Both of the later two are rising from the dead