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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    PIMIX holdings are disclosed every month which I think is more frequent than many other mutual funds can claim. In broad strokes, it is possible to tell how the fund is positioned on the date the holdings are disclosed. A desire for any further minutia is fruitless because the fund can change positions the day after. If static sector holdings are desired then perhaps a multi-sector fund is not one is looking for. PIMIX is truly a multi-sector fund.
    Do not fall blindly for M* classification of funds. E.g., IOFIX is classified as a multisector fund, which hardly it is.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    I have a special place in my heart for PIMIX.
    It was the first bond fund I owned and the longest from around 2010 to 01/2018 at 50+% for years.
    It was the fund I used to change my stock/bond % until I retired
    But since 01/2018, the magic has been gone. I sold and never looked back.
    The cheap, on sale MBS trade was gone. PIMIX AUM grew like no other.
    I found better funds to replace it, such IOFIX until ithe meltdown.
    For years now I stated that RCTIX invests mainly in securitized but have a better risk/reward and a much smaller AUM.
    https://schrts.co/NIzzEXtp
    PIMIX is s still open...why?
    I stopped listening to PIMIX managers, no matter what the question is, they still like securitized/MBS for over 15 years.
    It doesn't matter to me what a fund made 3-5-15 years ago, I care what it has been doing lately with a look at the future.
    Add to PIMIX it's derivatives and a black box tools and I'm skeptical.
    Is PIMIX a good fund? Sure, but I continue to stay away.
  • A good year to date for many bond funds.
    Some random thoughts on bond funds which in many cases are beating stocks YTD. The big winner so far has been emerging market debt. Some funds there are already coming off two consecutive years of double digit gains. Yet we seldom read much on that category. That is a good thing. Many of the better bond traders are heavy there. The greatest bond bull run I ever witnessed was the emerging market bull run from late 98 through the early 2000s.
    While everyone is enamored with the CrossingBridge bond funds - RSIVX, CBLDX, and NRCDX - and rightfully so, how about some love for CBRDX. Its November performance caught my eye and it has continued to outperform. My fear is they fold this small and concentrated fund into one of their larger ones.
    As much as I abhor junk bonds they have been more than resilient. Like MNHYX there and learned long ago not to let my opinions impact my positioning.
    The MBS funds continue to sparkle especially my favorite SEMMX/PX as well as BDKNX/AX. Interesting though that some of the bond funds tied to the lowest of low in MBS, the legacy non agencies from yesteryear such as EIXIX, IOFIX and a few others aren’t shining at all.
    The CLO funds are hanging in there but underperforming. Would not expect a repeat of the past two years performance in funds such as HOSIX or SCFZX nor the CLO ETFs. It was a good run for the bank loan funds but they too are underperforming. The cat bonds while also hanging in there, at least for CBYYX and EMPIX, doubtful they will see anything close to their double digit returns of 2023 and 2024,
    The Treasury secretary has on numerous occasions mentioned his desire to focus on the 10 year Treasury bond. Almost so much you would think he would welcome a brief recession to get it even lower. But you would think junk bonds would have to break before that. The administration also seems intent on lowering oil. So a lot going well for bonds YTD. The action in treasuries and emerging markets explains much of the renaissance in PIMIX YTD, Will the recent run in bonds continue or will inflation be the big bugadoo. Your guess is as good as mine. Just go with the flow.
  • Updated MFO Ratings and Flows Through Ides of March
    Thank you ybb!
    Yes, despite the bluster, suspect end is near for FirstHand SVVC.
    Another stunning find in the updated Family Scorecard: CliffWater.
    It tops the revenue per fund metric with $433M per year per fund.
    Just two funds: Cliffwater Corporate Lending I (CCLFX) and Cliffwater Enhanced Lending I (CELFX).
    Super hi expense ratio.
    About $27B AUM.
    Near perfect performance. Annuity-like. Little drawdown. As was IOFIX, once. Steady eddy.
    Both CEFs.
  • AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund name change and sub-advisor change
    Rational and Catalyst present more of same as AlphaCentric, which is expected since all run ultimately by Szilagyi. Sure, there is a fund here and there, perhaps: Rational Special Situations Income Inst (RFXIX), Catalyst Millburn Hedge Strategy I (MBXIX). But for the most part, it suggests an organization that will throw funds up on the wall hoping one or two will stick, at least for a while, like IOFIX. Then, collect high fees hand over fist. Like I said, not a firm that suggests being share holder friendly.
  • AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund name change and sub-advisor change
    Thank you @davidsherman. For me, it's the association that took me aback.
    Catalyst, Rational, AlphaCentric all seem like asset gathers. Really high er. Front loads. 12b-1 fees. Multiple share classes.
    I came across Szilagyi back in 2017 profiling AlphaCentric Income fund. I absolutely loved Tom Miner and the folks at subadvisor Garrison Point, but I was skeptical of their association with Szilagyi's organization.
    An excerpt:
    Focusing on IOFIX, the adviser pays 0.33% “other” (mostly administrative and servicing). The remaining 1.16% “management fee” (after a 0.01% acquired fund fee) is then split between AlphaCentric and Garrison Point, or 0.58% each. Since another Jerry Szilagyi company “MFund Services LLC,” also gets paid to manage the overall trust, Szilagyi’s firms appear to receive more fee from the fund than GPC does.
    Interestingly, AlphaCentric is listed along with Eventide, Pinnacle and Advisory Research as a strategic partner in a firm called Multi-Funds, which describes itself as “A Premier Marketing, Consulting and Distribution Firm.” While this channel may indeed have helped bring attention to IOFIX, allowing the sub-adviser to focus on its strategy and portfolio management … what it loves to do, Multi-Funds hasn’t helped other funds in the AlphaCentric family achieve anywhere near the assets attracted by IOFIX.
    Jerry Szilagyi also runs Catalyst Funds, a collection of “Intelligent Alternatives … We understood that the market did not need another traditional family of mutual funds … we endeavor to offer unique investment products to meet the needs of discerning financial advisers and their clients … specialized strategies seeking to produce income and equity-oriented returns while attempting to limit risk and volatility.” There are 28 Catalyst Funds comprising $6.2B in AUM. Average age just under 5 years. Most come in three classes, including those imposing 4.75% front-loads and 12b-1 fees. Average fees: 1.76% (oldest share class, 2.01% all share classes).

    When you stood-up CrossingBridge, it just seemed like a horse of a different color.
    You're always 10 steps ahead of everybody else in the room, which puts me 20 steps back and surely missing something.
    Or, simply being a Pollyanna.
    But Szilagyi's brand also ran into regulatory issues, granted he's in good company, but still:
    SEC Charges Portfolio Manager and Advisory Firm with Misrepresenting Risk in Mutual Fund
    The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against a New York-based investment adviser for misleading investors about the management of risk in a mutual fund. Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC (CCA) and its President and Chief Executive Officer, Jerry Szilagyi, agreed to pay a combined $10.5 million to settle the charges. The SEC also filed a complaint in federal district court in Madison, Wisconsin, against Senior Portfolio Manager, Edward Walczak, for fraudulently misrepresenting how he would manage risk for the fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020-21
    Fund That Lost $700 Million on Bearish Bets Fined for Misleading Investors
    Catalyst Capital Advisors and CEO Jerry Szilagyi settled regulatory probes, will pay $10.5 million
    A mutual-fund manager that lost 20% with wrong-way bets against the stock market agreed to pay $10.5 million to settle regulatory claims that it misled investors about its procedures for limiting losses.
    Catalyst Capital Advisors LLC and its chief executive, Jerry Szilagyi, settled the regulatory probes Monday without admitting or denying wrongdoing. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also both filed civil fraud lawsuits against Edward Walczak, the portfolio manager who ran the Catalyst Hedged Futures Strategy Fund.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fund-that-lost-700-million-on-bearish-bets-fined-for-misleading-investors-11580167076
    I'll post more later on the Catalyst, Rational, and AlphaCentric families.
  • AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund name change and sub-advisor change
    Just to clarify: I believe that the original post was about SIIIX, which is up 18% this year, not about IOFIX, which is up 2% this year.
    +1
    https://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/siiix/
    It is up only 9.3% (YTD - see under Current Fund Performance table). The table above shows YTD 11.08% as of 9/30. So, this fund lost 1.8% in the first week of this month.
  • AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund name change and sub-advisor change
    Just to clarify: I believe that the original post was about SIIIX, which is up 18% during the last 12 months, which is quite impressive, not about IOFIX, which is up 2% during the last 12 months.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    balubalu: here's what happened last may, tho i don't fully understand it: https://www.artemis.bm/news/cat-bond-market-suffers-one-of-its-biggest-non-loss-event-weekly-declines-icosa/. other than that drop, i don't see any other significant ones in the past year or two.

    Today, EMPIX is down 2.4%, SHRIX down 3.13%, but CBYYX is unchanged. Very inconsistent if the effect is from Helene devastation. On May 3rd, CBYYX was hit the hardest and SHRIX was unchanged.

    https://www.artemis.bm/news/stone-ridge-leads-managers-cutting-mutual-cat-bond-or-ils-fund-navs-on-hurricane-milton/
    @BaluBalu. You may have seen the above update on the pricing discrepancies. Reminds me of the fair market pricing of international funds. The cat bond managers marked down the navs of their cat bonds at their discretion due to the impending hurricane. The CBYYX managers chose not to.
    I mentioned earlier in the thread about the potential for the smooth ride and then sudden drops as a feature of mark to market discretion of thinly traded securities. You are well versed with this notion with IOFIX. So, one may not be enthralled with the smooth ride or despair with the sudden drops, unless one happens to be unlucky with timing.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    @hank, I have watched and analyzed ALT funds, especially AQR funds, for about 15 years. I'm not impressed, and I explained why.
    The only way to avoid big losses is to do timing using special bond funds (PIMIX, IOFIX in the past and others in the last several years), and why it took me many years to master it. I also never play short because markets usually go up.
    I know, you already heard it many times; sorry for that.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I like FCFAX+FATRX+THOPX.
    IOFIX is dead to me for a couple of years. Instead use SEMMX.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Anxious to see how the bond markets respond to Fed day Wednesday as well as the following day, I usually have an opinion (which thankfully I never base my trades on) but haven’t the slightest idea of how the markets will react Wednesday and Thursday. If forced to wager a guess, still looking for a move down to 3.50% in the ten year and lower by end of 2024.
    The past few months have been nirvana for bond traders and investors. And YTD many bond funds are already up double digits. How long can this continue? Besides the two funds I mentioned last month as well as my MBS fund, I also hold an emerging markets debt fund. Rising gold, falling dollar, lower Fed funds ahead of us and investor apathy on the various boards towards emerging markets are just a few of the reasons. I also wanted a fund with more fixed rate debt as much of what I own are funds with a larger proportion to floating rate. The CLOs bond ETFs just keep rolling on as does HOSIX, a CLO OEF. The later has also been great substitute for cash. Curious to see how the CLOs respond this week.
    Lastly, wanted some exposure to the subprime non agency RMBS market much akin to IOFIX. But wouldn’t touch that one with a ten foot pole. So found a fund that has a foothold there but with a far better track record YTD than IOFIX.
    Edit. To contradict my feelings about the 10 year above. If the economy was weakening why are junk bonds at all time historic highs. Not what you would see if a recession is on the horizon.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV
  • AlphaCentric Income Opportunities - A Cautionary Tale
    Lucky you!
    I too was heavy IOFIX from beginning of 2018 through that awful 3rd week of March 2020. A champion of the strategy and the firm, especially Tom Miner.
    Junkster called it the greatest fund ever ... and I agreed with him.
    IOFIX was in good company during Covid. Many got slammed. Terrible, fearful time in the markets. Perfect storm for them though.
    Fortunately, they well recovered, but others like BDKNX never did. I think it's a credit to GP.
    My last update with GP was November 2019, I believe. Met with them in person. The last time world was normal. And all seemed right with the fund.
    I was disappointed with the odd-lot violation, but many firms (PIMCO) have been tagged with that one. The fabricated bidding for bonds they already owned is more troubling. Not sure when that occurred.
    I did get back into IOFIX in late spring 2020, if I remember, thanks to Junkster's encouragement. Heavy again. I rode it all the way back, which I am very grateful for, exiting the position when it started to roll in 2022. I think many investors were quick to exit this time, as you can see in the flow data. Not wanting to make same mistake twice.
    I do not know what happened after that. Do not know when Tom left GP. But IOFIX appears broken ever since. A disappointment for the firm, its investors, and me.
  • AlphaCentric Income Opportunities - A Cautionary Tale
    Just like FAIRX,SGIIX,OAKBX during 2000-10, and later 2010-17 mostly in LC tilting growth, I slowly changed to bonds, by selecting PIMIX as my first bond fund in 2010 and increasing it to over 50%, but I sold in 01/2018 and never looked back.
    Then I replaced it with IOFIX for over 50% of my portfolio again. But the world experienced covid and I sold at the end of 02/2020, which is part of my system. I posted about it on the current site (https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2).
    I started buying again at the end of March 2020 and was fully invested by April. But, IOFIX lost it's mojo in 2021 and I discarded it like I did with many others before.
    The lesson, I make good money with special bond funds, but I'm very careful and sell immediately when the risk is high; in fact, I sell everything anyway.
    I follow this song (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo)
  • AlphaCentric Income Opportunities - A Cautionary Tale
    Here's latest on this saga ...
    IOFIX has not recovered and outflows continue.
    I also see that Tim Miner has departed Garrison Point. I was a big fan. Garret Smith, Brian Loo, and Jonathan Tran remain.
    Just 2 years ago, IOFIX enjoyed more the $4B in AUM. Now, under $250M.
    c
    IOFIX Flows and Return Data Last 3 Years
    image

    IOFIX Flows and Return Data Since Inception (Absolute Scale)
    image
  • Updated MFO Ratings and Flows Through Ides of March
    Hi again ybb! Pretty excited about the new tools. Fund houses report flows differently, unfortunately. Some daily, like State Street; others monthly, like Dodge & Cox.
    The tool uses whichever is available in database. There are indeed some mutual funds that report daily, like IOFIX.
    My favorite is the FLOW combo tool you mentioned. I will keep that at the highest frequency flow data ... daily.
    The FLOWS and TNAS comparative tools also now use highest frequency, but I plan to only use monthly flow data in future ... just too much data for 12 long-time funds reporting daily ... and, not needed for comparative work. (Unless someone convinces me otherwise.)
    Also plan to include flow data in MultiSearch table so it can be searchable!
  • the December MFO is live
    @RandiVooDoo. Thanks. Several of us suffered on that one.
    I'd say in March 2020, both price and flow happened simultaneously. A perfect storm really.
    And I think Garrison Point, which I like, regrouped and recovered well.
    But in February 2022, as soon as price rolled again, even a very small amount, there was a massive exit and outflows just continued.
    One of the things I've learned is that when a fund does not behave the way investors expect it to, they exit ... FAIRX, AQRIX, WBMIX, IOFIX, ZEOIX, TILDX to name a few.
  • the December MFO is live
    @Charles
    Thanks for posting that frightening chart of IOFIX price and flow data. Are fund flows predictive or a retrospect tool?
  • Best month for bonds in nearly four decades
    A bond trader doesn't care what happened, only how to make money in the future.
    Examples
    PIMIX made 8-10% for several years with low SD.
    IOFIX fell 45% in 03/2020, but after that it exploded 40-50%.
    Cat bonds did not make much in previous years but did well in 2023 with a very low SD.
    HY munis made several times 3+% during 2022-23 and much more in Nov 2023.
    Woohoo.
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    @ Crash,
    as of September 9th, @junkster said ,
    I trade only bond funds because of their persistency of trend combined with their lack of volatility. There are exceptions, but since 2000 there has always been a bond category that has beaten the S@P annually. Of course those exceptions are pretty glaring ala 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, and so far this year. So with an extra $100,000 would just add it to the bond category that is far ahead of the bond pack this year. That would be bank loans/floating rate which I have mentioned previously, Some are already ahead double digits YTD. Aside of March they have been as steady a trender as you could want. They are massively overbought, ripe for a correction, and with fears of rising defaults. But, ( and I have to continually remind myself of this) overbought in Bondland can stay overbought for long periods of time. Then again, this wouldn’t be an investment just a trade. Investment is a foreign term to me. I think the only time I was ever in a position since the 1990s for more than four to six months was in IOFIX in 2020/2021.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61478/how-would-you-invest-100-000-right-now/p2
    ——Also he mentioned few weeks later that he sold 1/3 of bank loan/ floating rate bond.———-
    The quick rise rise of 10 year treasury yield has impact all bonds. I notice the short term junk bonds have peaked and falling too this week. YTD they were the few pockets of bonds that were up high single digit return. High yield corporate bonds such as TUHYX did well YTD and they also started falling last week. Is this déjà vu again of the brutal 2022 among bonds?
    So what are your plan?

    >>>>>September 21 edited September 21 Flag
    Selling 1/3 of my bank loan OEF position on the close. Ugly day for credit including for a change the floating rate ETFs. If I am wrong will buy back. If this is the beginning of a correction will sell more. Unlike in the past cash is no longer trash.
    Edit. Make that 40%.<<<<<<<<
    I try to post my exits before the fact and sold 40% before the close as shown from my post above. That ugly day for credit on the 21st was a harbinger for what was to come and the top for bank loans - at least so far. The leveraged loan index has been down almost every day since and sold more till I was all in cash. It hasn’t been pretty for bank loans. As with anything they go down a heck of a lot quicker than they go up.