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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    And now for a potential China "bull case"...
    The following excerpt is from the 'Points of Return' newsletter (John Authers) published today.
    That leads to a final question: Why would anyone be bullish about China at present? Its problems are evident, and most international investors will justifiably hate the current political direction. Andy Rothman, investment strategist and veteran China-watcher at Matthews Asia, agrees that watching for progress on Covid Zero, and particularly for a pickup in vaccination rates, which have been falling, is most important. Providing the country can find a way out of lockdowns, he offers the following “bull case” for 2023:
    China is likely to remain the only major economy engaged in serious easing, while much of the world is tightening.
    Chinese households have been in savings mode since the start of the pandemic, with family bank account balances up 42% from the beginning of 2020.
    Those funds should fuel a consumer rebound, and an A-share recovery, as domestic investors hold about 95% of that market.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    For Terrsa: I found TBO capital website last June. Their healthcare fund looked good for me, also as their “fake “ team in LinkedLn. I opened account and made 4 wire deposits during next 4 month in total of $55k to HMC trading LLC (website provided wire instructions for HMC TRADING but not for TBO capital - that was a red flag but I wanted to believe that it was real good income opportunity)…last deposit was made in September, they sent me 3 checks with dividends ,all payable). That’s why I trusted them and kept doing additional deposits. On October 4th I tried to open website and check October dividends and found that website is off as well as contact emails and also their phones. That moment I understood that I was robbed and sameday I sent my complaint. to SEC, FBI cybercrime division, FINRA and WELLS FARGO wire claim dep.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    JD: "What is surprising to me is how much higher the CD interest rates offered at third-party brokerages are vs. those advertised directly from the issuers."
    From TD Ameritrade, March 22, 2022, "Bank CDs vs Brokered CDs:Whats the Big Difference": "You may be able to find higher yields among brokered CDs than those issued by an individual bank. This is partly because of their wider selection, but it may also have to do with a broker’s ability to transact higher volumes of capital and deposits, giving them a greater degree of negotiating power (for competitive rates) with banks."
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    JD: "I would love monthly interest pay schedule CDs, but so far I am finding that only the "lesser-known" banks seem to offer those, for the most part. It limits the search greatly."
    I just took a quick look at Schwab, and most banks are not well known banks, but I did see Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Capital One, Discover all offering CDs. I personally have a CD from Barclays, American Express, and Discover banks, but most of my CDs are from high rated, smaller banks, that are not well known. I also agree that I find more of the smaller banks offer the monthly dividends
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    Here is the background on Nicholas Borst of Seafarer, who @BenWP mentioned.
    Nicholas joined Seafarer Capital Partners in 2018. He is Vice President and Director of China Research. Prior to joining Seafarer, Nicholas was a senior analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco covering financial and economic developments in Greater China. Previously, he was the China Program Manager and a research associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Nicholas has also worked as an analyst at the World Bank.
    Nicholas’ research and commentary has been featured in the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Bloomberg, and South China Morning Post. Nicholas is a 2021-2023 Public Intellectuals Program Fellow at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and has testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on multiple occasions.
    Nicholas holds a B.A. in Political Science and International Studies from the University of Arizona and a Master’s degree in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is a CFA charterholder and a member of the CFA Institute.
    https://seafarerfunds.com/team/
  • 2022 year-end capital gains distribution estimates (Vanguard's Final estimated year-end posted)
    Capital gains were an issue for us when we were both working and trying to afford living in Marin County, California
    With one of us working, and living in a paid-for house in the Phoenix metro, capital gains are a feature, not a bug. They are reinvested if there is no dividend from the fund, or realized from a couple of the dividend payers to make the holidays a little more comfortable.
  • Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF to liquidate
    The ETF’s largest and most biblically “inspirational” company is Devon Energy: https://asyousow.org/resolutions/2020/01/04/devon-energy-climate-change-risk-reporting?format=amp Diamondback Energy follows close behind: https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/diamondback-energy What would Jesus say? According to Inspire’s site:
    THE INSPIRE IMPACT SCORE is an objective, rules-based scoring system which Inspire uses to identify the most inspiring, biblically aligned companies to invest in -- the kind of companies that are blessings to their communities, customers, workforce and the world. The Inspire Impact Score rates a company on a scale of -100 to +100 in relation to how well the company aligns with biblical values, with +100 being the highest possible score.
  • Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064222005391/inspirefaithwardlgcap497.htm
    497 1 inspirefaithwardlgcap497.htm 497
    Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF
    (NYSE Arca: FEVR)
    (a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV)
    Supplement dated October 27, 2022 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) dated March 30, 2022 and Summary Prospectuses dated May 5, 2022, as supplemented
    The Board of Trustees of the Northern Lights Fund Trust IV (the “Board”) authorized an orderly liquidation of the Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF (the “Fund”), a series of the Northern Lights Fund Trust IV. The Board determined on October 25, 2022 that closing and liquidating the Fund was in the best interests of the Fund and the Fund’s shareholders.
    The last day of trading of Fund shares on NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “NYSE”) will be November 18, 2022 (“Closing Date”), which will also be the last day the Fund will accept creation units from authorized participants. Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. Authorized Participants may redeem baskets of shares for a pro rata portion of the Fund’s portfolio on hand through the Closing Date.
    The Fund is expected to cease operations, liquidate its assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders on November 28, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    From the Closing Date (November 18, 2022), through the Liquidation Date (November 28, 2022), shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period. Between the Closing Date and the Liquidation Date, the Fund will be in the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process will result in the Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not tracking its underlying index.
    Shareholders remaining on November 28, 2022 will receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of that date, which will include any capital gains and dividends as of such date. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of Fund shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    For additional information regarding the liquidation, shareholders of the Fund may call 1-877-658-9473
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information and should be read in conjunction with those documents. The Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hi, guys. I was scammed by that TBO capital/HMC trading LLC too. Provide access to private board please.
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake?
    @Catch22
    Yes sir.. Was trying to say that if you don't better after few days of paxlovid treatments and get worse probably need to get back with your provider and get the antibody infusion treatments (Fda guidelines for not favor MAB infafter 9 days) or get admited due to compromised respiratory status. I think majority of patients do get better if vaccinated and most of the time we see patients get discharge home with supportive care unlike in mid 2020
    ...
    The data for paxlovid is very good but against old variants ( ~85% kill rate) , think the pharmacist staff told me not enough data for the new one and could be only 50s% effective.... It's a very large anti hiv pill lots side effects liver kidney failure and many critical drug interactions... You have to stop hormones (oral contraceptives) psyche meds or heart ANTIARRYTH meds / coumadin, cholesterol meds, stomach meds, and antifungal, etc...medications for 5 7 days... Lots stomach upsets
    I am not favor with imervecrin nor HCQ... Not much fda approval although India used it in 2020 and they did ok
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake?
    @Catch22
    Yes sir.. Was trying to say that if you don't better after few days of paxlovid treatments and get worse probably need to get back with your provider and get the antibody infusion treatments (Fda guidelines for not favor MAB infusion treatments after 9 days) or may get admited due to compromised respiratory status. I think majority of patients do get better if vaccinated and most of the time we see patients get discharge home with supportive care unlike in mid 2020
    ...
  • Looking ahead to Tax Year 2023
    Unfortunately with the market retracement (dismal returns) this yr, our household and mama are likely to pay less than 2021 or 2020
    https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/federal-income-tax-brackets#:~:text=There are seven federal tax,taxes due in April 2023.
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake?
    Yogi: "For 2 yrs, we have been basically homebound, avoiding routine social gatherings. We have attended only a handful of very special events. Our friends complain and some have stopped inviting us. Most recent special event was a funeral of a good friend. ... we kept our masks on all the time but few others did."
    Ditto; I understand whereof you speak. I apparently had it in the first wave (Feb. 2020, no reliable tests then according to PCP and local hospital) and developed some of the (now considered) standard sequelae, luckily relatively mild compared to others I know. Liver health is still a concern, though.
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake?
    Thanks for well wishes & suggestions.
    Will give Cinnamon Red Hots candies a try. A relative is coming tomorrow to drop some meds & supplies at the door. Will ask her to also stop at the nearby Walmart.
    We were waiting to get the new bivalent boosters that became available only recently. We didn't want to just keep getting the old boosters that are still based on the original 2020 virus.
    For 2 yrs, we have been basically homebound, avoiding routine social gatherings. We have attended only a handful of very special events. Our friends complain and some have stopped inviting us. Most recent special event was a funeral of a good friend. We are not sure but we both may have caught it there; we kept our masks on all the time but few others did.
    Life happens.
    Now to sleep again in the Covid world - late here anyway.
  • TBO Capital
    I was also fleeced by TBO Capital LLC aka HMC Trading LLC when we invested USD 10,000 with them on 8th July 2022 . I would like to get our money back. This forum is soo helpful.
    Henry K
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Hi@Derf et al
    A bond plan: Ah, yes. When rates begin to subside. So, I/we have to think we know and can witness as a meaningful shift and one that has legs, that will travel for more than 3 months. A tough task, yes?
    The "immaculate" bond plan is: Maintain our cash in FZDXX MM at 3% and then attempt to catch a wave with investment grade bonds; buying at enough of a depressed price to make the money on the price ride upward. A purchase would likely be a dollar cost average, barring some type of special financial event. At this point, the bond purchase would be AGG, bond etf.
    I feel the CD plans discussed have full merit and are a good plan, too. If I traveled that path, I would keep 6 month and/or 1 year laddered combo. I am not convinced the FED can keep pushing rates for more than 1 more year without causing too much economic damage, high inflation or not; which for the most part they can not control, due to conditions beyond their control (being political, war and climate). If rates continue to climb, we'll have a continued higher yield with FDZXX MM.
    As to the below. I watch several different bond types for movements related to yields. These 2 below have traders involved, for the most part, versus the average retail investor. They have distinct price actions that I've followed for several years. I'll be watching these 2 for clues, too.
    And, as important; is that I am able to dedicate time to research and view Bloomberg. Yes, one can learn from tv programs.
    The first two TBT and TMF are M* links, if you want to look. They will link to "quote", but you may select any of the other tabs for other data. The third is the relationship, of the two, to interest rate changes.
    TBT Ultra Short 20 + YearTreasury
    TMF Bull 3X 20+ Year Treasury
    TBT vs TMF chart Starting Jan. 2020 to date.
    Sleep time here,
    Catch
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    BAC - 24% YTD
    APPL - 19% YTD
    BRK - 12& YTD
    Does diversification work ? Looks like over YTD it does.
    Have a good day, Derf
    Also remember how BRK acquired shares of BAC
    bank-america-become-one-warren
    Buffett ended up investing $5 billion in preferred Bank of America stock redeemable at a 5% premium and paying a 5% annual dividend. In addition, Buffett received warrants to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America common stock at a price of $7.14 anytime within the next 10 years.
    Right off the bat, Buffett was earning $300 million per year in dividends from his preferred shares. He waited until 2017 to exercise the warrants to buy shares of common stock at the $7.14 price. By the end of 2017, those shares were worth $20 billion, three times the size of his initial investment.
    At the time of the Buffett bailout, Bank of America shares were trading at around $7.65. By late 2012, Bank of America was trading back above $10. After a volatile decade of trading, Bank of America hit its post-Great Recession high of $35.72 in December 2019.
    BofA In 2020, Beyond: Bank of America shares dropped to $17.95 in March during the coronavirus sell-off, but have since recovered to above $27.
    Buffett has made a fortune on his initial investment, but he's still buying the stock. In the third quarter alone, Buffett added 85 million shares to his stake, which is now valued at about $24.3 billion.
    Bank of America investors who bought the day of the Buffett investment back in 2011 didn’t get the same sweet deal Buffett got, but they’ve still done pretty well over the years.
    In fact, $1,000 worth of Bank of America stock bought on the day of the Buffett investment in 2011 would be worth about $4,081 today, assuming reinvested dividends.
  • TBO Capital
    I am one of the have been taken from by TBO Capital Group - HMC Trading LLC. I have made the rounds on reporting but as others have said and the SEC said, they work at protecting the government only. Of note I feel we all should report it even though we may not get anywhere. Based on the numbers of people reporting who they spoke with at the SEC I would say the case is being looked at seriously. It is being funneled to the same Attorneys to handle the case. My understanding from Wells Fargo the SEC will have a direct contact to someone high up in Wells Fargo to get this mess of a web figured out. I am curious if anyone else has any experience with Private Equity Investing like this? This was my first and likely only try at it. What is to say any old mutual fund with a ticker symbol is being operated honestly though? TBO did not have a ticker symbol hence Private Equity is my interpretation of it. It was a stretch for me, and I got burned... I hope all are doing their best considering.