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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Cash Plus Savings, FDIC Insured
    From the horse's mouth:
    https://investor.vanguard.com/accounts-plans/vanguard-cash-plus-account
    And participating banks:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/Bank_Sweep_Participating_Banks.pdf
    For purposes other than same-day trades, I'll stick with VUSXX. Same pre-tax yield (within a basis point), better after-tax yield (100% state tax exempt), and VUSXX is arguably better insured (though I think this is splitting hairs).
    Its underlying Treasury securities are backed directly by the Treasury in an unlimited amount. Protection against theft (embezzlement, robbery, etc.) is provided up to $500K by the SIPC. In comparison, the VG sweep program is covered "only" up to $250K by the FDIC, which in turn is backed by the Treasury.
    Another petty difference between the VG sweep account (or the MMFs) and bank savings accounts is that the latter are subject to Regulation D. The banks may reserve the right to require seven days notice for withdrawals. And while the six withdrawal per month limit has been suspended, the banks may still impose a limit.
    For example American Express Bank limits savers to nine withdrawals.
    https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/reviews/american-express-personal-savings-account
    One way in which VUSXX and bank savings accounts are similar is that neither can be used as a settlement account at VBS. You have to move money from a bank or from VUSXX into a brokerage settlement account before you can trade with it. If that's an important feature, compare the Vanguard sweep account to VMFXX.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    As 'Roseanne Roseannadanna' (portrayed by the late, great Gilda Radner) was known for saying in the 1970's SNL news: "...it just goes to show you, it's always something — if it ain't one thing, it's another."
    Staying with thoughts and reactions of bond markets since the melt of 2008, and the continuing aspect of 'this time is different'; which I believe still applies, those with the big strings to pull, will continue to attempt to fix the problems. Not that this hasn't happened in past decades; but those decades are now for reference and study; and for me, are not so meaningful for trying to preserve and improve one's capital position, here and now.
    Nov. 15 PPI down .2%, a baby trend. And missiles strike Poland
    , killing 2. Not Russian missiles? Thursday...some folks talk about a peak/terminal rate of 7%??? Is the FED gonna break the back of the economy, with what ever it takes?
    The FED board are a chatty bunch, eh? Although, I don't have a degree in psychology; one may observe over the years, that often when folks become excessively chatty about something they're connected to; in part, it may be from being nervous, twitchy. So do they have their fingers crossed behind their backs, that their plan will actually work and they won't look like fools at a future date? Some inflation is taken care of by the consumer not willing to pay a price. Other inflation sectors in the current environment, are not readily able to be controlled by the FED or the consumer. As there are no real rules to all phases of the game, perhaps I'll keep my fingers crossed, too; and hope to spot a trend here or there.
    What is Terminal fund rate?
    The terminal rate is the level at which the Fed is expected to stop raising interest rates.
    I'm imaging the FED using CPI or an index gauge they choose and increasing interest rates until the two numbers are near the same value; and then take a look around at the results, to determine the next move. I.E. : CPI at 5.5%, stop the terminal rate at 5.5%.
    Numerous recent posts have discussed the yield curve and other factors that may be affecting current and future yields. I can't improve on those commentary; and I've rambled enough.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    A few positives remain for this week.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 14- November 18, 2022
    --- AGG = +.51% / -13.4% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.12% / -1.7% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.21% / -4.4% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = - .07% / -9.9% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.2% / -15.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.02% / -13% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = -.8% / -5.2% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.2% / -32.8% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.8% / -31.5% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +2.7% / -39.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +3.1% / -41.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -3.5% / +96% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +5.1% / -72% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +.63% / -14.3% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -.3% / -11.1% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.2% / -18.2% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.79% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022 Yes, short term yields have changed rapidly.
    BONUS MATERIAL. For many of the younger, well; you had to be there and then.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    2. My specific question is > some for the distributions show as at loss - others are at a gain . I can identify and cherry pick and sell off a few of the distributions that are currently at a loss . This would then raise the gain of the remaining position
    When specific shares ("cherry pick") and average cost ("raise the gain ... of the remaining position") appear in the same sentence, it suggests that some clarification might be helpful.
    It is true that if one sells the most expensive shares in a position, the average cost of the remaining shares is reduced, thus increasing the average gain of those remaining shares. But so what?
    ---
    Consider a position with two shares, one purchased at $2/share, one purchased at $6/share (perhaps via div reinvestment). The average cost is $4/share. If the current price is $5, then what one has is:
    - Share A, cost $2, worth $5, unrealized gain of $3.
    - Share B, cost $6, worth $6, unrealized gain (loss) of -$1.
    Total unrealized gain = $3 - $1 = $2.
    Average unrealized gain = $2/2 = $1. As shown below, this average gain doesn't matter.
    ---
    Suppose you sell one share now, and the other share later after the price rises from $5 to $8.
    Sell Share B first, recognize a $1 loss.
    Sell Share A @$8, recognize a gain of $8 - $2 = $6.
    Total gain on portfolio = -$1 + $6 = $5.
    Sell Share A first, recognize a $3 gain.
    Sell Share B @$8, recognize a gain of $8 - $6= $2.
    Total gain on portfolio = $3 + $2 = $5.
    No difference in total gain. The difference is in the timing. Sell B first and you get to use a $1 loss now (offsetting other gains). You don't have to pay taxes now out of pocket. So you get the use of that tax money until you sell Share A.
    Sell A first, and you have to pay taxes on $3 of gain now. You don't have the use of that tax money any more. This is why one generally sells more costly shares first.
    ---
    Don't get confused by average cost. With mutual fund shares, one is permitted to use the average cost of shares when computing realized gains. But then there's no cherry picking, no selling of most expensive shares first. And total gain still comes out the same.
    With average cost:
    Average cost = ($2 + $6)/2 = $4.
    Sell oldest share first (required) @$5: recognize gain of $5 - $4 (av cost) = $1.
    Sell newest share @$8: recognize gain of $8 - $4 (av cost) = $4.
    Total gain on portfolio = $1 + $4 = $5.
    Notice that the average cost used doesn't change for the second share, even though there's only one share left in the portfolio after the first sale.
    And the total portfolio gain of $5 is the same as before. The difference, once again, is in the timing. You pay taxes on $1 gain now. That's more than you'd have to pay up front if you used the shares' actual costs and sold the most expensive share (Share B) first.
    ---
    Finally, to get back to the idea of using $3K in losses to offset ordinary income. This is the most valuable use of losses. It's more valuable than using a loss in one share to offset the gain of another share. So if there is a way to generate a cap loss one year, that's usually optimal. To do this, you usually sell your most expensive shares in one year and your shares with gain in other years.
    Again, the total gain remains the same regardless of the order of selling. What differs is when you have to pay your taxes (generally the later the better) and whether you get to use some losses to offset ordinary income (better).
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    @ben - If I understand it - I can identify and choose to sell specific shares that are now showing a loss. Most of the dividends are showing as a a gain , but some are showing a loss . If I sell the dividends that are showing the loss the average total Capital gain in the fund will increase, when I go to sell the remaining share s.
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    @newgirl: If I understand your question correctly you are contemplating selling shares of *one* mutual fund. If you set up your cost basis method as average cost basis you will not be identifying specific shares to sell, but just the number of shares or the number of dollars. Everything is averaged-out so to speak. This is what I have done and it has worked well for me. When I eventually sell the entire lot of shares I have found that the capital gains do not come close to the amount of money I have actually made in the investment. But maybe I don't understand the question.
    Part of what I don't understand is what you mean by a negative distribution. As far as I can tell, the NAV will drop whenever the mutual fund sells assets, no matter whether they sold the asset at a profit or loss.
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    Thanks y'all.
    My understanding is > 1. Capital losses that exceed capital gains in a year may be used to offset ordinary taxable income up to $3,000 in any one tax year. Net capital losses in excess of $3,000 can be carried forward indefinitely until the amount is exhausted.
    2. My specific question is > some for the distributions show as at loss - others are at a gain . I can identify and cherry pick and sell off a few of the distributions that are currently at a loss . This would then raise the gain of the remaining position . Is that still an advisable thing to do ?
    The only way to avoid the cap gains on liquidation would be a gift or DAF - this fund throws off huge year end Cap gains distributions and as I have owned for about 25 years - it has huge embedded gains .
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    There are lots of numbers in the tax code that aren't indexed to inflation. ISTM that automatic (as opposed to manual) inflation adjustments are a fairly new concept, given that the modern tax era (16th Amendment, first 1040) started in 1913. Why, for example, is the IRA catch-up amount fixed at $1,000? The proposed SECURE 2.0 Act (H.R. 2954) would index this figure for inflation, as well as raise the RMD starting age above 72 and a slew of other changes.
    Here are some other aspects of this $3000 tax benefit that one might question:
    - Why allow a capital loss to offset ordinary income, as opposed to treating the loss as a negative cap gain (i.e. get back 15% in taxes on the $3K instead of, say, 22% in taxes)?
    - Why allow individual taxpayers to carry over cap losses indefinitely? (Until 2011, mutual funds could only carry forward cap losses eight years.)
    - Why did H.R. 1619, sponsored by Zoe Lofgren in 2001-2002 fail to reach a vote? It would have amended "the Internal Revenue Code to increase, from $3,000 to $8,250, the annual capital loss limit applicable to individuals [and provided] for an annual inflation adjustment."
    https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/house-bill/1619
    - Why should one have to hold a security for a full year before treating the gain or loss as long term? Through 1976, the holding period was 6 months, then 9 months in 1977. The Tax Reform Act of 1976 changed not only the holding periods, but the amount of loss carry forward permitted, from $1K in 1976 to $2K in 1977, to its present $3K in 1978.
    https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/98-473.html
    These are not rhetorical questions. Virtually every piece of legislation involves horse trading and compromise. One needs to delve into the legislative process to find out what happened. Likely there will be another opportunity in the next couple of months to watch the process in real time, as SECURE Act 2.0 is raised in the lame duck session. Or not.
    https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/landmark-retirement-bills-see-opportunity-in-lame-duck-congress
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    I am very sure that only short term loss can offset short term gain. Same goes for long term gain and loss.
    The long term capital gains tax rate is 0%, 15% or 20% on most assets held for longer than a year. Short term capital gains taxes on assets held for a year or less correspond to ordinary income tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% or 37%.
    This is what other people tell me as well. Yet schedule D and its instructions seem to indicate otherwise and so do some fairly reliable websites. Here is one quote from kiplinger.com:
    "Netting Rules. If you have a mix of short- and long-term capital gains and losses, you need to understand the order in which losses offset gains. First, short-term losses are used to offset short-term gains, and long-term losses are used to offset long-term gains. Then, if there are any losses remaining, they can be used to offset the opposite type of gain."
    Elsewhere it is made clear that there is a $3000 yearly limit (married filing jointly) to what can be deducted per year from capital gains.
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    I am very sure that only short term loss can offset short term gain. Same goes for long term gain and loss.
    The long term capital gains tax rate is 0%, 15% or 20% on most assets held for longer than a year. Short term capital gains taxes on assets held for a year or less correspond to ordinary income tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% or 37%.
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    Sven, why preferably long term? I know typical capital gains are long term but I think the IRS lets us use remaining short terms capital losses to offset long term capital gains on schedule D once the short term losses have offset short term capital gains. I am not certain about this and that is why I am hesitating to harvest a capital loss in a fund I have held for less than a year. There will not be much short term gain for me this year and I know I can use "left-over" losses in subsequent years to offset gains but I'd rather use them *this* year.
    I am selling those with negative cost basis (preferably all long term cap gain) but we don’t have many despite a poor year. Quickly we buy the equivalent ETFs to avoid future headache.
    Donation is always good at this time.
  • Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter announcing the cuts
    I used to be exclusively at M*, and for years, resisted posting elsewhere. But various M* platform changes, and loss of contents with each move, forced me to change my web/social-media approach.
    Now, I am at several platforms. Each has its unique flavor and circle of people. Some stuff is duplicated but not much.
    Covid downtime in 2020 also gave me time to reconstruct lot of my lost content at M* that I put on the YBB Site (a refence site, NOT a discussion site) and now just refer to it rather than posting same/similar stuff repeatedly in response to Qs.
    BTW, some at Twitter are pointing out that Twitter may have saved us from WWIII, an overstatement that has some validity. Early mainstream media reports on the Russian missile strike in Poland and possible use of NATO Article 5 (when many world leaders were at G20 in Bali, Indonesia) were not based on facts. I saw at Twitter that several posters from Ukraine, Poland and elsewhere (including the US) posted conflicting info. My earliest posting on a related MFO thread was based on those reports (but there was no single link for them). Musk has tweeted (with obvious self interest) that the coverage of the recent missile event and FTX-Alameda collapse in the crypto universe have been more timely and better than in the mainstream media.
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    Charitable contributions is a valid idea. Use DAF to contribute right away but dole out contributions later; great if you can itemize.
    Repositioning portfolio to take some gains and using TLH for offsetting those is also a good idea.
    I am not seeing any unintended consequences. There is also a thread on Tax Ideas.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60253/timely-tax-ideas-from-barron-s-this-week
  • Cap Gains Loss Harvest Strategy advice please
    I own a TROWE Mutual fund in a taxable account that has huge gains, ( I have held it for a long time ) it has grown to become very concentrated, but would be a huge tax hit to unwind . There are several individual distributions that are negative, both Long Term and Short term which I can sell to harvest the losses to use against other capital gains. That would increase gains in the holding, and exacerbate the eventual unwinding of this position - unless it is donated . What is the smart thing to do here ?
    I'd like to be aware of unintended consequences. I am still working , so in a higher tax bracket .
  • Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg’s letter announcing the cuts
    I hope these FB employees will find other meaningful jobs elsewhere with their skill sets. Twitter situation is even worse.
    image
    One writer's perspective:
    The over-expansion at Big Tech has been bad not just for the companies’ shareholders (Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are down by 43%, 67%, and 32%, respectively, this year), but for the U.S. economy in general, sucking up talent that could have been deployed more productively.
    “We have a shortage of talent in Silicon Valley," [Altimeter Capital’s Mark] Gerstner said. "Meta and other large companies have made it very difficult for start-ups to hire.” Gerstner said he’s “confident that these employees will find replacement jobs and quickly be back to work on important inventions that will move us all forward.”
    The economic data, so far, appear to be proving him right. While the number of layoffs is clearly increasing, the number of people filing initial claims for jobless benefits has not risen markedly from a 60-year low.
    https://www.yahoo.com/now/weekly-comic-big-techs-day-022222952.html
  • Can I do a class conversion from PRWCX into TRAIX at Schwab?
    Last year I was able to swap PRWCX into TRAIX at Fidelity. Fidelity is not allowing this any more. Does anyone know whether Schwab assists clients holding the retail class of T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund PRWCX into the institutional class shares TRAIX to get the lower expense ratio? And if so, what is the minimum $ value required for the class conversion?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Prospect Capital/PSEC is a BDC (co rating BBB) and its bonds mentioned by SA are rated BBB-, borderline inv-grade.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSEC/profile?p=PSEC
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    And now for a potential China "bull case"...
    The following excerpt is from the 'Points of Return' newsletter (John Authers) published today.
    That leads to a final question: Why would anyone be bullish about China at present? Its problems are evident, and most international investors will justifiably hate the current political direction. Andy Rothman, investment strategist and veteran China-watcher at Matthews Asia, agrees that watching for progress on Covid Zero, and particularly for a pickup in vaccination rates, which have been falling, is most important. Providing the country can find a way out of lockdowns, he offers the following “bull case” for 2023:
    China is likely to remain the only major economy engaged in serious easing, while much of the world is tightening.
    Chinese households have been in savings mode since the start of the pandemic, with family bank account balances up 42% from the beginning of 2020.
    Those funds should fuel a consumer rebound, and an A-share recovery, as domestic investors hold about 95% of that market.
    I've been following Andy since his days at CLSA. I'm a fan of his story telling. However, he's lost a lot of credability over the years. When have you EVER heard Andy NOT be BULLISH on China? There is optimism...and there is being biased or saying what you want to happen. Andy has become much more the latter.
    Plus...he now works for Matthews, which has a vested interest in saying "China is a great asset class". Perhaps the combo of Andy being now at Matthews makes me more skeptical (plus, Matthews has had a mass exodus of portfolio management talent...yet Andy for some reason stays).
    Andy has to change things up every once in awhile or he sounds like a biased broken record.
  • Matthews Emerging Markets ex China Active ETF in registration
    Wow! Per their website, Matthews assets down to $13 billion as of October 31, 2022! They were near $30bn in 2020 when I was last in their offices right before covid!
    Markets definately haven't helped, but that's a lot of client redemptions! Apparently many have the same concerns we do.