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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AGG Up 8.4% This Week
    Yes, total bond market index funds are in many retirement accounts.
  • All Wasatch Funds are open except International Opportunities (unless directly from Wasatch)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312520017093/d842170d485bpos.htm
    From the 1/31/2020 prospectus:
    Open/Closed Status of Funds. The Emerging India Fund, Emerging Markets Select Fund, Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund, Global Opportunities Fund, Global Select Fund, Global Value Fund, International Select Fund, Micro Cap Fund, Micro Cap Value Fund, Small Cap Value Fund, Ultra Growth Fund, and U.S. Treasury Fund are each open to investors.
    The Core Growth Fund, International Growth Fund, International Opportunities Fund and Small Cap Growth Fund are each closed to new purchases, except purchases by new or existing shareholders purchasing directly from Wasatch Funds, existing shareholders purchasing through intermediaries, and current and future shareholders purchasing through financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund. Fund officers may waive or revise the conditions of a closed fund for an intermediary depending on its ability to systematically apply the conditions .
  • Infinite QE Is Destroying Traditional Bond-Fund Strategies
    Yeah, I've been thinking same thing. Talk about potential for price dislocation. How does the market know what the true demand is when the Fed/Treasury is buying everything up? Maybe the Fed is just betting that demand and attendant liquidity will return to normal when folks don't feel the world is ending. It's that or let everything freeze-up now, which certainly would be catastrophic! Mutual funds, especially in fixed income, are everybody's retirement account and simply too big to fail ... those deemed investment grade anyway.
  • Edward P. Bousa of Wellington Fund to retire
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105563/000168386320001038/f2772d1.htm
    497 1 f2772d1.htm WELLINGTON FUND 497
    Vanguard Wellington™ Fund
    Supplement Dated March 27, 2020 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 27, 2020
    Important Change to Vanguard Wellington Fund
    Effective at the close of business on June 30, 2020, Edward P. Bousa will retire from Wellington Management Company LLP and will no longer serve as a portfolio manager for Vanguard Wellington Fund.
    Loren L. Moran, Daniel J. Pozen, and Michael E. Stack, who currently serve as portfolio managers with Mr. Bousa, will remain as portfolio managers of the Fund upon Mr. Bousa's retirement. The Fund's investment objective, strategies, and policies will remain unchanged.
  • CARES ACT, allows penalty free withdraws up to $100k from 401K, 403B accts.
    I hope folks do not become forced into, or think they should "anyway", pull these monies.
    ***Presumption house will pass this legislation on Friday.
    CARES ACT article with internal links
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    I just looked at CAPE since its inception, 7.5y ago, 10/12, and noted its >10% superiority to SPY. (Even moreso compared w/ the div and low-vol etfs listed above.)
    So if you are a long-termer (at 73- I have only so many terms left) I believe you will be hard-pressed to find something reliably outperforming SPY over time. Would like to know examples.
    Did not look to MFOP to screen for LCG like the named winners from TRP and Fido, also Polix and Akre, yet I am sure they have outperformed CAPE. But who else?
    Given AGG's relative outperformance recently, am thinking it plus CAPE in some proportion could be my new retirement grail.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    @charles -assuming you meant this > "Assess your portfolio--but don't obsess"?
    Thanks ! not obsessing just trying to make lemonade. I am close to retirement, but still running business. These are all in taxable accounts. I am not touching my 401k .
  • sell the bump?
    @johnN It depends on each persons situation. I am 15 years into retirement. Our investment income currently contributes 25% to 30% to our annual household cash flow. But we can get by comfortably -- with a more modest lifestyle -- if that % drops to zero (the amount available to us this year will go down substantially from 30% if the market does not quickly rebound). My approach is different than would be necessary for a person who would be highly dependent on that income in retirement. Maybe other comments will help in that regard.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    Experience tell me in order to fully recover the loss that would be time, recovery time that is. During 2008 drawdown, S&P500 index took over 4 years to full recovery the loss from peak to trough. Depending on your asset allocation, it may be shorter (hopefully not longer).
    At presence the sell-off is severe, i.e. the rate of decline is even steeper than 2008. There are days when the supposedly opposite asset classes such as bond vs. equity move in the same direction, which indicates panic selling to cash. So jumping to one ship on fire to another is not a viable option to recover the loss.
    If you follow Charles Bolin article on MFO, he is near retirement and his portfolio is constructed very conservatively with 20% equity. He should be doing quite well now considering S&P 500 index is down over 30% as of 3/20/2020.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    Hi @_Bobpa
    I am not investment guru/expert, but I would imagine betting on more aggressive heavily stock driven portfolio [90/10], or Emerging market/oversea products may get you back to previous peak soon if there is indeed recovery. Many predict maybe few years before we see dows at 30000 levels. Others say recessions on horizon and unemployment rate maybe extremely high in near future and severe economiccontractions.
    For us late 40 years old, has many years until retirement, our portfolio still comprise 80/20, mostly index products. We are also couch potatoes thus we do hold Tdf 2045 funds in vanguard and schwab. We did not sell, hoping for market to recover soon
    Our largest holders currently :
    Brk.b
    Vanguard primecap core
    Vanguard emergent market etf VWO
    EEM
    Wellington fund vwelx
    Vanguard star vgstx
    Fbnd
    Bnd
    Vti
    Voo
    Been adding vde qqq and vti last week, even going all way downs
    Probably will sell good holding bonds [private-corp bbb ] soon, would need cash to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax next few weeks.
    Regards
  • Social Security website down?
    I’ve been trying to access the My Social Security website all day and it will not let me log into my account. Has anyone else had similar problems? The SS site itself is still open, but I cannot access my personal information. This is troubling because I have read that SS has closed its offices to visitors and they were directing people to use their website. I am considering whether to start receiving SS payments (I have already reached full retirement age) but can’t do that if offices are closed and website doesn’t work.
  • When to start buying
    It seems to me that with respect to "when to start buying" equities/equity funds the decision should mainly be based on two factors:
    • How close are you to retirement?
    • Do you believe that the equity markets will eventually recover and continue to operate as they have historically?
    If you have five to ten years left to accumulate before retirement, and you believe that the markets will, in time, recover, then what's the problem with buying right now? There's a "1/3 off sale" going on even as we sit here.
    If you're a little early, the market will decline even more before stabilizing and beginning another upward cycle. If you prefer to buy a little now, and maybe a bit more each week for a while, you will either get even better prices or maybe pay just a bit more, depending on what the markets do. Nobody knows exactly when we will hit bottom, but we're certainly in a good buying area right now.
    Please note that I'm restricting my perspective to the equity market. What the bond market will do is being manipulated by so many outside actors that it's impossible to know what's going to happen. I'll leave the bond commentary to my friend Catch22.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    best of all, you could post about it here, like those who got out end Feb (or whatever) and went to cash etc etc etc,
    unlike those down a half-mil in retirement
    The idea of "going to cash" is pretty silly for anyone with real money outside of a tax sheltered account, and very dangerous for those even in a tax sheltered account. The getting out part is relatively easy except for the taxes involved. It didn't take a genius to know we are entering a down period towards the beginning of this month. It's the getting back in part that is so hard. I have used all kinds of charts and techniques over the years in many sectors (especially playing commodities) and have learned that "get back in" signals can be very false. You think the worst is over and get in...only to drop another 60% from there. Just look at natural gas, for example. Then you're afraid to get back in...only to see a massive (often unexplained) rip to the upside while sitting in your cash. Yes, some will win big with their great calls and will post here. The losers not so much. Every transaction in the history of every market had a buyer and a seller. I'd wager a lot that those who stand still will come out ahead over the long term...I suspect that those staying pat with things like vwenx, vwiax, btbfx, pimix will do fine with their likely "mere" 6-7% returns over the next decade or so after this mess clears. Of course this time may be different (highly doubt it) but I can't live on MM returns. My personal strategy is to always be 30%-50% in cash and to nibble in down periods (especially killer down days) and to stand pat most other times. Down 13% YTD and consider myself "lucky." Good luck all, and stay safe!
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    best of all, you could post about it here, like those who got out end Feb (or whatever) and went to cash etc etc etc,
    unlike those down a half-mil in retirement
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    @Old_Joe I don't think going into cash is an idea only for old people. There is no reason younger people should not be smart, is there?
    I feel good I protected my retirement accounts by "panicking" right about the time I received the first unsolicited email in my inbox that said "don't panic". Every time after that I received another "don't panic" email I wanted to reply "but I already panicked the first time you told me not too", but replies bounced. Then I got some "its too late to sell now" and I only hoped others getting that email didn't read it, but what do I know?
    I'm happy to report I got out of the market mostly with a loss of 7-10% in my 401k accounts. In my IRA, I'm hedging my conservative portfolio with some 2x short funds and depending on the day am sitting on a 7 - 10% loss. Above all, I decided I will make my own mistakes rather than some Harvard or Columbia MBA tell me what to do when, and I'm glad that I did.
    In my taxable portfolio, I was 33% invested because a wise person once told me, NEVER invest more than 33% of your cash. I know other people called that person stupid, I know different. I am very gradually going to start adding to funds I like in my taxable portfolio and use this opportunity to cull my funds until I keep getting back to 33% invested. Nothing like a reality check to see whether the funds you own are those you really want to hold for the long (sic) term.
    All the best to you.
  • Are Municipal-Bonds Always a Safe Haven
    Hi sir @old_joe. Perhaps you are right sir,
    If near retirement, probably need to sell everything Monday and put in 100%cash/CDs...nothing is working
    If still have many years probably continued to buy and DCA
    Maybe best time to buy new car or home in 4-6months if there is severe USA Recession
  • Another buying opportunity
    @hank: Is the answer Infinite ? While you were fully invested I was the opposite, to much so !!
    With my Schwab account down 22.14 % YTD, I don't think that's to funny ! How are you doing ?
    Since 01/01/2020 I've put 7.3 % of total starting portfolio to work. Approximate half before the down draft. So I'm not throwing a large % into the fire.
    parsig9, from above, is investing a lot more than me , but to be fair he has a (few) years to go to retirement & I've been there for ten years.
    You commented, "What about the current situation makes one bullish at this juncture ."
    Nothing about this situation makes me bullish at this time. Down the line things will turn & Mr . Market will catch his breathe & rise again. Or are things different time ?
    Have a good evening , Derf
  • Another buying opportunity
    It keeps going down down down...probably sit this one out for couple of wks until dust settles
    One of my friend met chief of infectious disease physician [50+ plus experiences] of Large Major Hospital in Austin Tx states things maybe settling in 4-6 wks/slow down...he also says he has see anything like this before but it will pass. Less flu/cold and SARS and hopefully cousins of SARS Covid19 at mid april/warmer weather, less incident of transmissions. That is what we are hoping for. Will it last one year, he does not think so. Will it last few months? Maybe.
    We are still keeping our 80/20 in our 401k and retirement portfolio, DCA with continuous bimonthly distributions but probably wont add more monies for now.
    Plus we have to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax soon [april now july 15 tax deadlines]
    Maybe we are hovering near the bottom, but this is what some folks say last wk. Maybe new bottom today
    well at least the USA death rates hovering 1.4% but probably will be much lower next wk once have more data and less panic. 85s-90s% of infectious personnel show very little nor no symptoms, only old and sick patients have issues.
    China/Hong Kong and S.Korea are easing out slowly now. US will soon follow, don't know about Italy + EU though
    regards
  • Another buying opportunity
    Spent 12% of my portfolio on PRFDX, PRDGX, TRVLX . Bit on PRNEX too. I will start moving around 5% a week from my cash equivalent funds into equity until it's gone. I am comfortable buying from here down to oblivion. I have 15- 20 years to retirement.
  • Time for Plan B?
    @Tarwheel, if family longevity factor is a concern, taking SS at your full retirement age makes sense. Here is more information from Vanguard on the cost-risk analysis and break even point.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/retirement/social-security/what-is-social-security