Recapturing Portfolio Loss Hi
@_BobpaI am not investment guru/expert, but I would imagine betting on more aggressive heavily stock driven portfolio [90/10], or Emerging market/oversea products may get you back to previous peak soon if there is indeed recovery. Many predict maybe few years before we see dows at 30000 levels. Others say recessions on horizon and unemployment rate maybe extremely high in near future and severe economiccontractions.
For us late 40 years old, has many years until
retirement, our portfolio still comprise 80/20, mostly index products. We are also couch potatoes thus we do hold Tdf 2045 funds in vanguard and schwab. We did not sell, hoping for market to recover soon
Our largest holders currently :
Brk.b
Vanguard primecap core
Vanguard emergent market etf VWO
EEM
Wellington fund vwelx
Vanguard star vgstx
Fbnd
Bnd
Vti
Voo
Been adding vde qqq and vti last week, even going all way downs
Probably will sell good holding bonds [private-corp bbb ] soon, would need cash to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax next few weeks.
Regards
Social Security website down? I’ve been trying to access the My Social Security website all day and it will not let me log into my account. Has anyone else had similar problems? The SS site itself is still open, but I cannot access my personal information. This is troubling because I have read that SS has closed its offices to visitors and they were directing people to use their website. I am considering whether to start receiving SS payments (I have already reached full retirement age) but can’t do that if offices are closed and website doesn’t work.
When to start buying It seems to me that with respect to "when to start buying" equities/equity funds the decision should mainly be based on two factors:
• How close are you to retirement?
• Do you believe that the equity markets will eventually recover and continue to operate as they have historically?
If you have five to ten years left to accumulate before retirement, and you believe that the markets will, in time, recover, then what's the problem with buying right now? There's a "1/3 off sale" going on even as we sit here.
If you're a little early, the market will decline even more before stabilizing and beginning another upward cycle. If you prefer to buy a little now, and maybe a bit more each week for a while, you will either get even better prices or maybe pay just a bit more, depending on what the markets do. Nobody knows exactly when we will hit bottom, but we're certainly in a good buying area right now.
Please note that I'm restricting my perspective to the equity market. What the bond market will do is being manipulated by so many outside actors that it's impossible to know what's going to happen. I'll leave the bond commentary to my friend Catch22.
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't best of all, you could post about it here, like those who got out end Feb (or whatever) and went to cash etc etc etc,
unlike those down a half-mil in retirement
The idea of "going to cash" is pretty silly for anyone with real money outside of a tax sheltered account, and very dangerous for those even in a tax sheltered account. The getting out part is relatively easy except for the taxes involved. It didn't take a genius to know we are entering a down period towards the beginning of this month. It's the getting back in part that is so hard. I have used all kinds of charts and techniques over the years in many sectors (especially playing commodities) and have learned that "get back in" signals can be very false. You think the worst is over and get in...only to drop another 60% from there. Just look at natural gas, for example. Then you're afraid to get back in...only to see a massive (often unexplained) rip to the upside while sitting in your cash. Yes, some will win big with their great calls and will post here. The losers not so much. Every transaction in the history of every market had a buyer and a seller. I'd wager a lot that those who stand still will come out ahead over the long term...I suspect that those staying pat with things like vwenx, vwiax, btbfx, pimix will do fine with their likely "mere" 6-7% returns over the next decade or so after this mess clears. Of course this time may be different (highly doubt it) but I can't live on MM returns. My personal strategy is to always be 30%-50% in cash and to nibble in down periods (especially killer down days) and to stand pat most other times. Down 13% YTD and consider myself "lucky." Good luck all, and stay safe!
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't best of all, you could post about it here, like those who got out end Feb (or whatever) and went to cash etc etc etc,
unlike those down a half-mil in retirement
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't @Old_Joe I don't think going into cash is an idea only for old people. There is no reason younger people should not be smart, is there?
I feel good I protected my
retirement accounts by "panicking" right about the time I received the first unsolicited email in my inbox that said "don't panic". Every time after that I received another "don't panic" email I wanted to reply "but I already panicked the first time you told me not too", but replies bounced. Then I got some "its too late to sell now" and I only hoped others getting that email didn't read it, but what do I know?
I'm happy to report I got out of the market mostly with a loss of 7-10% in my 401k accounts. In my IRA, I'm hedging my conservative portfolio with some 2x short funds and depending on the day am sitting on a 7 - 10% loss. Above all, I decided I will make my own mistakes rather than some Harvard or Columbia MBA tell me what to do when, and I'm glad that I did.
In my taxable portfolio, I was 33% invested because a wise person once told me, NEVER invest more than 33% of your cash. I know other people called that person stupid, I know different. I am very gradually going to start adding to funds I like in my taxable portfolio and use this opportunity to cull my funds until I keep getting back to 33% invested. Nothing like a reality check to see whether the funds you own are those you really want to hold for the long (sic) term.
All the best to you.
Are Municipal-Bonds Always a Safe Haven Hi sir
@old_joe. Perhaps you are right sir,
If near
retirement, probably need to sell everything Monday and put in 100%cash/CDs...nothing is working
If still have many years probably continued to buy and DCA
Maybe best time to buy new car or home in 4-6months if there is severe USA Recession
Another buying opportunity @hank: Is the answer Infinite ? While you were fully invested I was the opposite, to much so !!
With my Schwab account down 22.14 % YTD, I don't think that's to funny ! How are you doing ?
Since 01/01/2020 I've put 7.3 % of total starting portfolio to work. Approximate half before the down draft. So I'm not throwing a large % into the fire.
parsig9, from above, is investing a lot more than me , but to be fair he has a (few) years to go to
retirement & I've been there for ten years.
You commented, "What about the current situation makes one bullish at this juncture ."
Nothing about this situation makes me bullish at this time. Down the line things will turn & Mr . Market will catch his breathe & rise again. Or are things different time ?
Have a good evening , Derf
Another buying opportunity It keeps going down down down...probably sit this one out for couple of wks until dust settles
One of my friend met chief of infectious disease physician [50+ plus experiences] of Large Major Hospital in Austin Tx states things maybe settling in 4-6 wks/slow down...he also says he has see anything like this before but it will pass. Less flu/cold and SARS and hopefully cousins of SARS Covid19 at mid april/warmer weather, less incident of transmissions. That is what we are hoping for. Will it last one year, he does not think so. Will it last few months? Maybe.
We are still keeping our 80/20 in our 401k and retirement portfolio, DCA with continuous bimonthly distributions but probably wont add more monies for now.
Plus we have to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax soon [april now july 15 tax deadlines]
Maybe we are hovering near the bottom, but this is what some folks say last wk. Maybe new bottom today
well at least the USA death rates hovering 1.4% but probably will be much lower next wk once have more data and less panic. 85s-90s% of infectious personnel show very little nor no symptoms, only old and sick patients have issues.
China/Hong Kong and S.Korea are easing out slowly now. US will soon follow, don't know about Italy + EU though
regards
Another buying opportunity Spent 12% of my portfolio on PRFDX, PRDGX, TRVLX . Bit on PRNEX too. I will start moving around 5% a week from my cash equivalent funds into equity until it's gone. I am comfortable buying from here down to oblivion. I have 15- 20 years to retirement.