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Fidelity and iShares have a partnership deal that goes back around 15 years, before Fidelity created its own ETFs (aside from ONEQ), before brokerages started selling stocks and ETFs commission-free.My own owned ETF is an iShares beast connected to BlackRock. I'm wondering what will happen to my stake in EWS. Paying a fee to buy, sell or add shares is a no-go for me.
And that’s exactly what we should be discussing. Posting weekly indicators without any interpretation is just that, raw data. No one ever said this would be easy. I’ve been making calls for years, though I no longer do so on this site. These unique situations only come up a few times a year, and that’s precisely why they matter.Junkster: When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know several traders who have been very successful using the CNN Fear and Greed index as a buy signal when it reaches single digits and synthesizing that with other indicators. Good traders are into synthesizing a variety of indicators into a coherent trading plan. Trading is not easy and anyone who tells you it is, is a crook, con man, and charlatan.
For those who haven't listened to the podcast or read the transcript,[snip]
If your goal is to earn more with lower volatility, which is where I am since retirement,
then a few principles stand out:Consider funds from small to medium-sized shops; they often have more flexibility.
and can uncover opportunities larger firms can’tNewer funds can sometimes perform even better because they’re more nimble.Don’t obsess over expense ratios; what ultimately matters is performance after fees.
The bond market is unique;certain segments can outperform for only a few months (sometimes longer),.
so active trading and tactical skill really matterTiming is also critical, especially avoiding major drawdowns like in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
[snip]
In just over a month, the crypto market has lost $1.2 trillion in value. The steady declines since mid-October have erased much of the gains received by both small and large investors. Among the latter is a very well-known figure: U.S. President Donald Trump, who is also partly responsible for the euphoria the sector experienced until October.
But the Trump effect has completely vanished, with digital assets falling back to levels seen before his term. His direct support of the sector and entry into crypto businesses fueled short-term excitement, but investors have forgotten about that now. Today, the focus of the debate is the potential AI bubble and interest-rate cuts. And the Trump business empire has felt the shock of reality: since September, it has lost at least $1 billion of its fortune (dropping from $7.7 billion at the beginning of September to the current $6.7 billion), according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a decline largely due to the Trump family’s growing ties to crypto projects.
The Trump family went all-in on digital assets: they launched tokens, created companies, invested in the industry, pardoned convicted crypto tycoon Changpeng Zhao, and legislated in favor of the sector, pushing major cryptocurrencies to historic highs. But in this market — marked by extreme volatility and speculation — no one is spared, not even the president. A good example of this was the launch, a few days before Trump’s inauguration, of the memecoin $TRUMP, a token with no backing whatsoever beyond being linked to the tycoon’s image. Minutes after its release, euphoria broke out and the token reached a value of more than $15 billion. But like every speculative wave, the excitement was short-lived, and its price plunged by up to 76% within a few hours.
In these past months, $TRUMP has gone through ups and downs, but since mid-August its declines have intensified, and it has lost around 40% of its value; since its launch, it is down 85%. As of today, the size of the Trump family’s stake in the project is unclear; according to Bloomberg estimates, those close to him hold around 40% of all outstanding tokens. At current prices, that stake is worth about $310 million, implying a loss of $117 million since the end of August.
But this is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Trump family’s crypto empire. With their flagship project, the crypto platform World Liberty Financial, they issued the WLFI token, which has plunged 38% since early September: those close to the president hold an amount of tokens that reached an accounting value of roughly $6 billion at its peak, but which today are worth half that — about $3.15 billion — according to Bloomberg data. These assets, however, are not included in the agency’s calculations, as they are not traded on organized markets.
At present my "comfortable" level is far lower than it has been for a very long time.The very unusual situation of poor sentiments and indicators near market highs has been noted in the media and at MFO. The K-economy explanation sounds reasonable.
... I don't time and always have market exposure suitable for my comfortable sleep level.
As a corollary, I won't buy when sentiments and indicators are very positive.
Should one buy here? There seem selected opportunities - lots of stuff is lagging in this narrowly led market. But beware that the lagging stuff would also be hit hard in any market selloff.

On its face, 2025 has been a good year for the stock market. The S&P 500 was dragged out of its tariff-induced springtime slump by a small subset of AI-forward power players whose spectacular gains defied an otherwise softening economy. Even now, despite a rocky November, the benchmark index is up more than 12 percent since the start of the year.
A group of trillion-dollar brands known as the “Magnificent Seven” — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — has been at the forefront of those gains, thanks in large part to corporate spending and intense interest in artificial intelligence. But economists and investors are raising concerns about the companies that aren’t part of the AI investment boom — in other words, most businesses in the United States.
An index that leaves out the seven high-flying tech firms — call it the S&P 493 — reveals a far weaker picture, as smaller and lower-tech companies report lackluster sales and declining investment.
“You have the headwind of de-globalization and tariffs, and the tailwind of AI … those forces are battling to a draw, and in that crosswind you get winners and losers,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “Anything that is not connected to AI is throttled lower.”
Some experts are worried that the S&P 500, an index of large-company stocks that underpins the fortunes of millions of Americans with 401(k) and other retirement accounts, has become too reliant on the Magnificent Seven; they collectively account for about a third of its value, leaving the broader stock market heavily dependent on the continued success of “the AI trade,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private equity firm Apollo Global Management.
“There is no diversification in the S&P 500 anymore in my view … it is all the AI story now,” Slok said.
Publicly traded small and midsize companies have taken a beating by comparison. The Russell 2000 lost 4.5 percent in the one-month period leading up to Friday, compared with a loss of around 2 percent for the S&P 500. A little more than a third of the companies in the Russell 2000 index either don’t make money or are losing money.
The market’s concentration in Big Tech has also given rise to concerns about what would be left if an AI bubble were to burst. Those fears have been amplified in recent weeks as Big Tech names suffered a modest sell-off, with some analysts raising concerns that the AI industry has overspent on infrastructure at a time when the technology’s actual profit-generating potential is still nascent.
Tech stocks have endured a series of rocky sell-offs since late October, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index falling around 7 percent from its Oct. 29 peak. Markets rebounded Friday, with the index trimming some of its losses from earlier in the week.
Slok, the Apollo economist, says he is particularly worried about the recent AI losses because so much of the recent economic growth has been shored up by free-spending wealthy households. A deep correction in AI stocks, if it ever arrived, could threaten the “wealth effect” that is doing so much to prop up the economy, Slok warned.
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