Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Finding the Right Benchmark for Your Portfolio
    I don’t have time to run an accuracy check of everything this M* contributor claims. So please don’t hold me accountable. But I do agree with her that for some (myself included) using a benchmark can be helpful, as long as the risk / reward profile fits with your own. As the author asserts, this can be an index / combination of indexes or a mutual fund / combination of funds.
    Morningstar Article
    As a 25+ year investor with TRP I’ve generally used one or two of their funds for this purpose. For years my benchmark / tracking fund was their 40/60 retirement fund TRRIX. Beginning this year it flipped to their PRSIX - a nearly identical fund, but with a 5% weighting in a hedge fund. Performance wise they’ve also been nearly identical over the years.
    The value of benchmarking is that over time (months / years) you arrive at an understanding of how your portfolio performs relative to the benchmark. If you find you’re deviating a lot more than you like it’s easy to modify holdings until your performance falls more in line with your tracker. There will always be exceptions, of course. Ideally you’d like to keep volatility (especially on the downside) similar to or below that of the tracker while enjoying somewhat superior overall performance. It’s a process that evolves over years and never really stops.
    Friday, my combined portfolio gained .07% - one of the dullest days I can remember. However, my tracker, PRSIX, gained just .05%. IMHO that’s reason to be cheerful.
  • Couple Municipal investments-Best Municipal Bond Funds to Buy and Hold and myths w muni bonds
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/19/taxable-municipals-myths-and-misperceptions
    https://news.yahoo.com/9-best-municipal-bond-funds-211119796.html
    Taxable Municipals – Myths and Misperceptions
    by Tony Tanner of Ivy Investments, 3/19/21
    Taxable Municipal Bonds grabbed the attention of not only municipal bond market participants in 2020, but also of investors and financial professionals globally across the asset class landscape.
    9 Best Municipal Bond Funds to Buy and Hold
    Debbie Carlson
    State and local governments are in good shape.
    ***Like other asset classes, the municipal bond market rebounded after the initial sell-off last year because of the pandemic. Amy Magnotta, co-head of discretionary portfolios at Brinker Capital Investments, says state and local governments "are actually in pretty good shape, surprisingly, despite the pandemic," noting most state revenues were roughly flat in 2020 versus 2019. With President Joe Biden's stimulus money and infrastructure plan, and the reopening of many states' economies, the fiscal situation for many state and local governments might be good as they get cash injections. However, she says, with interest rates so low, investors need to be careful what funds they choose. Here are nine muni bond funds to buy.
    Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (ticker: VTEB)
    Scroll to continue with contentAd
    How to Know 72 Hrs in Advance Which Stocks to Pick
    VantagePoint
    How to Know 72 Hrs in Advance Which Stocks to Pick
    Advanced A.I. “brain” consistently forecasts the stock market with up to 87.4% accuracy… 3 days in advance.
    READ MORE
    Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA, says exchange-traded fund VTEB is a good place for muni bond investors to start when building this part of their portfolio. The fund tracks the S&P Municipal Bond Index, which is made of investment-grade issues and diversified across states. VTEB's annual cost is 0.06%, which amounts to $6 for every $10,000 invested, one of the lowest among its peers. The fund is free from both federal income tax from the alternative minimum tax. The yield is 2%. "It's a great core part of the portfolio," Rosenbluth says.
    Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
    The municipal bond universe can be an inefficient asset class due to its large number of issuers, says Steven Saunders, director and portfolio advisor at Round Table Wealth Management, so his firm prefers to use actively managed funds where the managers can find relative value through security selection and yield-curve positioning. His pick is BTMIX, which "has demonstrated consistent value-add in these areas, and their short-duration strategy allows for defensive positioning in the event rates continue to rise." The fund has an annual cost of 0.3% and a yield of 1.5%.
    - ADVERTISEMENT -
    PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
    Mark Mumford, director at Hollow Brook Wealth Management, says his firm looks for municipal bonds strategies that have a strong emphasis on credit quality and issuer diversification. GNMVX tries to limit swings in assets under management which can negatively affect a municipal bond strategy, he adds. The fund has a low annual fee of 0.39% and a yield of 1.67%, with an effective duration of 5.3 years. The fund seeks investment-grade bonds with higher yields using fundamental credit research. "Municipal markets can be inefficient, creating opportunities for experienced teams to find value in a low interest rate environment," Mumford says.
    Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
    Magnotta says with rates low and a recent pickup in market volatility, she prefers active management and is focusing on investment-grade munis. She chooses NOITX, because she likes that it has an experienced team with a long tenure, holds high-quality issues and has a liquid portfolio. She notes the annual cost of 0.46% is below average. "This is a strategy that long term is a good balance in a portfolio," Magnotta says. This fund has more than $3 billion in assets under management, and the average credit quality in the fund is A-rated.***
    Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)
    -- Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
    -- PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
    -- Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
    -- Nuveen Dynamic Municipal Opportunities Fund (NDMO)
    -- VanEck Vectors High Yield Municipal Index ETF (HYD)
    -- Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (NHMRX)
    -- Nuveen All-American Municipal Bond Fund (FAARX)
    -- Northern Arizona Tax-Exempt Fund (NOAZX)
    Several good reasonable funds considered to be added here especially for capital Preservation and retirement accts/and inflation worries.
    We do have HYD but may add some to Mama retired portfolio
    Enjoy
    Happy Saturday
  • Amazon Versus the Unions
    I should have placed the below links in order of dates, but anyway..... there are some portions within the links below to YouTube videos, aside from the actual full length movie or documentary (PBS). The links are broad based so that you may look at whatever related; and present a view of union/company power struggles.
    Companies and unions, the battle between the two; and IMHO is simply based with a system of honor between management/the company and the workers. A form of equality or fairness between making a reasonable profit for a company and a reasonable wage to an employee for their effort in helping making the profit. Sadly, honor is a most difficult condition for a human(s) to maintain.
    Over many years power and corruption have afflicted both groups.
    The modern era example links below, have long and deep roots from time periods long ago. Also, that the time frames below only reflect some of the larger events; while many such events were taking place in many smaller actions all across the U.S. wherever one found an industrial era operation.
    As an 18 y.o. I worked for GM for 16 months, and was a UAW member by default. Not a large learning experience for me at the time, as my brain cells were not fully developed , regarding a union. My largest first time observation of the factory world was the changing of the flavors in the soda/pop vending machines placed through out the enormous facility. The week before major holidays found that any beverage flavor that did not mix well with vodka or a whisky were removed and replaced with a highly favored mixer. Yes, management was fully aware of a high percentage of the work force who were using alcohol during work hours. I knew two shift foreman (management) who had a good buzz in place, periodically; during their 12 hour shift. An old joke was, "Don't buy a new car/truck built during the holidays"........quality control ??? From the alcohol of the 50's through 70's, came weed, coke and other used by employees. Sadly, the protection of union members, by the unions, traveled too far beyond the norm; attempting to protect against anything that was not an actual murder on company property. So much for what should have remained anything to do with being honorable. EX: Assembly line workers taking turns "clocking out, old mechanical time clocks" one another out at the end of a shift, when they had already left the building after 1 hour of work. Problem: True story. Fella left work early, crossed through a nearby rail yard, caught shoe/foot in track/switch unit, needed recuse unit to free foot and had to be taken to hospital emergency from the injury. Appealed that he had a family emergency and had to leave work early; and no other actions were taken against him.
    The Flint, Michigan sit-down strike had a significant impact to the work landscape for many years. The benefits of this action flowed into the non-union wages and benefits, too; at least in Michigan.
    Too many other stories about the companies and the unions; the power and the corruption that plague both of them to this day. But, I'm done; and hope the write flow is not too disruptive.
    Matewan coal mining strike, 1920's, fact based
    Homestead Carnegie steel strike, 1892, fact based
    The Molly Maguires 1970 movie circa 1870's, book/movie inspired by true events.
    Copper Country strike, 1913, fact based
    The game changer, Flint Michigan, sit-down strike, 1936-1937
    Michigan, right to work law , an at will employee
    A further restriction/addition to this law was signed by the governor in 2013; regarding union membership. Prior employee (non-union) rights already had many restrictions to rights of employment in Michigan. A real world example took place in 2003, of which; I was witness. A company was re-shaping their employee base and terminated 4 people who were in their late 50's-early 60's and not yet at a full retirement age. A "no charge" meeting was held with a pro-labor attorney, regarding that this action appeared to be a "age related discrimination" related termination(s). He offered his experience with such actions and stated that this was a no win case; as if one did not have a series of annual reviews over the years that were graded an "excellent", no basis could be brought forth. So, when one is graded via an annual work review, and there are 10 areas of grading, each area must be the equivalent of "excellent", the highest possible rating. This indeed, would be a rare event in any employee's career. The terminations remained in place. My personal note, is that these 4 where honorable and ethical persons who gave a good days work to the company.
  • T. Rowe Price Government Money Portfolio to be liquidated
    Not a boo boo, just a fund that most people wouldn't be looking at. The fund is also a good answer to the question: who would buy a bond (or bond fund) with a negative yield?
    T. Rowe Price used to offer a variable annuity. While it hasn't been available for new investors in years, it is still around. The only cash alternative in that VA is (soon to be "was") the Government Money Portfolio.
    If investors wanted to flee to safety, this was their only option within the annuity. Even though YTD (through Feb 28) it had lost 0.07% (including VA fees), and over the past year it lost 0.43%.
    https://fsbl.com/annuities/t-rowe-price-performance/
    I'm not picking on TRP here. No matter how low VA fees are, when MMFs yield 0.01% (including subsidies), investors will lose money with them. Here's the only MMF offered in Fidelity's Personal Retirement Annuity. Its negative returns (-0.05% YTD as of March 17, and -0.16% over the year ending Feb 28) incorporate the VA fees.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/annuities/summary/FTNJC
  • The Ultimate Pre-Retirement Checklist
    Start 5 years prior to retirement...
    Link to Presentation (Audio / Video):
    webinar-replay/the-ultimate-pre-retirement-checklist
    Presentation PDF:
    The Checklist
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    @davidmoran in this economy... with the wealth of investment choices... Why.... “have a lot of money earning zero too”?
    That’s not criticism ... I’m trying to learn what I don’t know. I’m looking out for a family member and asking the same questions... re investments and this market and conditions we are in.
    YTD S&P 500 is up 5.50%
    Tell me about it. Don't I know it. I will be interested in your own responses to your own questions.
    Where if anywhere will you put spare moneys? Where should I put moneys now which I will not need for a few years (not a decade, but not 3-4y either)?
    50-50 VTIP (GTO, MINT) and VONV (VONE, CAPE)? BND and BIV are down. Something additional into ARK and QQQ? Maybe.
    Shiller p/e is close to 36, higher than it has ever been since the Y2k peak-plunge. Each week it goes higher. I coulda written this post, and believe I did, any month of the last 8 or so. We are 2/3 out of market for the last 10mos. In some sense we have enough and are being prudent in retirement. Otoh my wife, not just me, would like to have, or have had, the several hundred thou we 'missed', if I had stayed the course and done nothing.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    Why in the World Would You Own Bond Funds?

    I'm a few years away from retirement and am not comfortable with a 100% equity allocation.
    Higher quality bond funds have low correlations to equities and add ballast to one's portfolio.
    My bond allocation is lower than average (based on age) since current bond yields are depressed.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    Re @bee’s above comments...
    We kicked this concept around here roughly a decade ago. I thought than it was totally WACKO.
    In hindsight, it would appear to me anyway that if a retiree is able to protect & grow his / her nest-egg during the crucial first decade following retirement, than (depending on circumstances) that person might be in a somewhat better position to assume greater market risk later on. Perhaps mentioned already - but if home equity has grown substantially over those years, it’s also an argument for taking on a bit more market risk.
    Why is the first decade so important? Because a large % loss than might prove more devastating than were it to occur later on after (1) net worth had increased appreciably and (2) life expectancy had decreased. All depends ...
    I never liked glide-paths and have assiduously avoided funds that incorporate them. Fine for people who pay little attention to markets and investing. But I’d rather have the ability to add or pull back on market exposure than to venture down the one-way street glide-paths seem to lock one onto. The experience in 2007-9 and to some extent in early 2020 demonstrate the advantage of being nimble rather than locked in.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    After years of accumulating a retirement nest egg using exclusively low cost, well diversified Target Date Funds, determine your income needs and allocate a portion of your portfolio to meet those income needs. Your Target Dated Fund (now very conservative) could be your funding source (4% rule).
    Slowly recast these funds out on the Target Date spectrum towards a higher equity weighting. This allows part of your portfolio to slowly move into a higher weighting in equities as you age and help avoid sequence of return risk early in retirement.
    Should Equity Exposure Decrease In Retirement, Or Is A Rising Equity Glide path Actually Better?
    Yet the research shows that rising glide paths can be so effective, they may actually lead to lower average equity exposure throughout retirement, even while obtaining more favorable outcomes. And ironically, it turns out that for those who do want to implement a rising equity glide path, the best approach might actually be to explain it to clients as a bucket strategy in the first place!
    should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Sven: I have the largest slice of our assets with TIAA because of my employment. My current plan is to move what’s now with Schwab and TDA to a brokerage account at TIAA so that my family will have only one wealth manager to deal with when I can’t or don’t want to be involved. I’ve been with the same advisor there for some 20 years, so I feel comfortable my heirs will be in good hands. Our arrangement will resemble moving into a retirement community that provides various levels of care starting with fully independent living and ending with that stage I don’t want to contemplate.
    @hank’s comments on the various TRP funds/strategies are right on. At this point, I’m using TMSRX as an alternative to cash and to part of what might normally be bonds for me. PTIAX remains, IOFAX is gone, and the remaining non-equity money is destined for one or two allocation funds, surely with TRP. I doubt I’d know of these options without MFO and its skilled commentators for which I’m grateful.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    Several years ago it was @msf who brought the difference to my attention.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/129057/#Comment_129057
    It would be instructive to compare the two equivalent funds of the same year and see the % difference. Also there is an institutional series of TDF that requires $1M minimum to invest. They are for business retirement accounts and pension fund.
    TIAA is a good company for teacher retirement accounts. We use Vanguard index funds to invest for our kids 529 college funds. It is the power of compounding of invested $ that help us to achieve our goal. Same goal here to invest for retirement using T. Rowe Price.
    As we age we would like to reduce the complexicity of managing the portfolio by embracing target dated funds. When our mental capacity is reduced at later part of our lives, TDF would be very helpful to achieve our goal.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Sven: thanks for reminding me about the two different types of TDFs at TRP. In my retirement account at TIAA, my former employer’s choices determine the funds I can use. The Vanguard funds you allude to are what I have chosen, while I use TIAA index funds for pure equity exposure. Harbor Capital Appreciation is the only actively managed stock fund I own in that account.
    @Catch: sorry for mistaking you for @Crash, or visa versa. One COVID activity we initiated is feeding the birds. After finally figuring out how to keep the deer and squirrels from stealing the birdseed, I still need to replenish the feeder daily because our place has become very popular. I wonder if feeding the woodpeckers will deter them from attacking our cedar siding.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Crash and @BenWP,
    I think we are thinking along the same line. In order to simply our lives, we have been consolidate the holdings in our tax-deferred accounts. Our 401(K) accounts have moved to a Vanguard target date funds and the returns have been quite respectable as shown in 2020. Certainly we appreciate to consolidate from 10 funds to just one.
    Outside the 401(K), we are also considering to use TRP's target date funds as the core holding and complement it with our favorite funds such as PRWCX and TMSRX. Several things to like about TRP target date funds:
    1. Their flexible thinking on asset allocation and how to make the necessary changes in order for the investors to meet their future goals. In this low yield environment, traditional bond allocation may not work. See Sebastien Page's WealthTrack on Feb 20th, 2021.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54612/wealthtrack-weekly-investment-show-with-consuelo-mack#latest
    Vanguard takes on a more traditional asset allocation approach.
    2. Solid active-managed funds plus a small allocation of S&P500 index fund.
    3. Reasonable expense ratio (but not the lowest as in those of Vanguard)
    Note that TRP offers two series of target date funds (Retirement and Target date) and their glide path is slight different. Retirement series is a bit more aggressive one of the two. I think RPGAX is a reasonable choice but I prefer the bond funds used in the Retirement funds.
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    I wanted to re-post some of the article's comments and additional links
    Rule Based Investing & Retirement Spending:

    Freeze Rule: In any year when the portfolio has shrunk due to market losses, we freeze the withdrawal amount, not taking any increase for inflation.
    Cut Rule: The withdrawal amount is cut by 10% if the withdrawal percentage grows to more than 20% above the initial withdrawal rate.
    Kitces calls these rules for withdrawals - Withdrawal Policy Statement (WPS):
    crafting-a-withdrawal-policy-statement-for-retirement-income-distributions-guyton/
    Guyton's Decision Rules:
    cornerstonewealthadvisors.com/wp
    Applying Guyton's Rules to a $1M portfolio (Template):
    sample-withdrawal-policy-statement-wps-from-jon-guyton/
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Thanks @ davidmorn
    I am also intrigued by Pfau's & Kitces studies that suggest:
    In a world where the conventional wisdom is that retirees should reduce their equity exposure throughout retirement as their time horizon shortens, this research suggests that in reality, the ideal may actually be the exact opposite.
    and,
    if the portfolio is depleted too severely by withdrawals and bad returns in the early years, there won’t be enough (or any) money left for when the good returns finally arrive. And notably, the truly dire situations are not merely severe market crashes that occur shortly after retirement, but instead the extended periods of “merely mediocre” returns that last for more than a decade, which are far too long to “wait out” just using some cash and intermediate bond buckets. Conversely, when the equity glidepath is rising and the retiree adds to equities throughout retirement (and/or especially in the first half of retirement), then by the time the market reaches a bottom and the next big bull market finally begins, equity exposure is greater and the retiree can participate even more!
    I have often thought...
    Own retirement date funds (that have a glide path) towards initial retirement (your retirement date) and then re-cast these "retirement date " funds out over your retirement horizon in increments that maximize a SWR, Portfolio Duration (You do not want to have a chance of failing after only 10 years if you are planning for 50 years), and Terminal Value.
    Here's a link to Kitces discussion on the topic:
    https://kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/
  • JP Morgan's 2021 - Guide to Retirement
    This guide is of great interest as I approach retirement.
    Thank you!
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    Hi @sma3
    My sister who knows nothing about investing wants a conservative asset allocation fund in early retirement for an inheritance she doesn't need to live on.
    I'll presume from your statement that: your sister is already in retirement and that her inheritance will be invested in a taxable account.
    I noted the following a few days ago regarding a 529 account that was started in 2006 but could be applied to a taxable account, too:
    >>>We set our own allocation, being 50/50 with VITPX and VBMPX. The expense ratio for the funds are .02 and .03%. VITPX holds 3,400 equities and VBMPX holds 18,000 bonds. YOW !!!
    The 50/50 ratio is required to auto balance once per year. So, the ratio has never traveled to far outside of 50/50.
    The 10 year total return for this blend of 2 funds is 8.705%.
    I've used FBALX as a benchmark for our own investments to discover how much of a smart arse or dumb arse we may be at any given time. FBALX is high on the list of balanced funds in it's category.
    FBALX has a 10 year annualized return of 10.83%. <<<
    An equivalent to the above could be a simple 50/50 of SPY and AGG (or BAGIX, a plain vanilla active managed AA bond fund); OR whatever percentage mix an individual wants to choose for these two. The rough math indicates a 50/50 mix of the above to provide about a +8.45% blended total return for the past 10 years and +6.95% over the past 15 years.
    My personal choice using AGG or BAGIX examples for bonds, would be the equity side into FSPHX or FSMEX for the 50/50 mix.
    We individual investors find ourselves at an unfamiliar place recently, relative to the AAA bond sector. Although we have BAGIX as part of our portfolio, I/we don't know how much support/ballast will arrive during a greater than -20% equity dive, although I still feel central banks and large investment organizations would still run to AAA bonds during an equity melt.
    NOTE: 50/50 of SPY (or an index) and AGG = -.4% YTD, VWINX = -.25% YTD and FBALX = +2.3% YTD.
    I think your sister could have a decent risk and reward blend of no more than 3 holdings among bonds and equity to satisfy a meaningful performance portfolio.
    Lastly, retirement finds too many variables for individuals/couples. If monetary needs are satisfied for the normal expenses, one's investments should still include equities, IMHO. Forty years of favorable bond returns are at a new place right now; and I surely don't know the forward road in this sector for a fully buy and hold portfolio.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    My sister who knows nothing about investing wants a conservative asset allocation fund in early retirement for an inheritance she doesnt need to live on.
    I would usually go to VWINX, but I worry its large standard bond allocation will not be much of a buffer with interest rates so low. I doubt its benchmark AGG will be much help if stocks crash because of rising interest rates.
    I wanted to give her max DD and recovery rates for several funds from major families but they all differ in % equity allocations.
    Can anyone suggest a source for data on major fund families allocations for the income phase of target date funds so I can run an MFO comparison for her?