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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mid-Year MFO Ratings Posted ... New Navigation Bar
    @Charles, check out Barron's,
    TRADER. Stocks rose as the wall of worry faded away. The RALLY broadened beyond large-caps to small/mid-caps and cyclicals (financials, industrials). The SP500 was in a bear market for 248 days (Edit - the longest since 1948) and it may reach a new high that is +10% away. Of course, there are economic data, the FOMC meeting(s), and a possible recession along the way. Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-gains-as-wall-of-worry-crumbles-what-happens-next-75e1dc1e?mod=past_editions
    You may be thinking of the time it took for the SP500 to recover fully, and that was about 5 years after the GFC; however, the allocation funds recovered much faster.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Sara Devereux, head of fixed income at Vanguard, discusses Treasuries, corporates, munis,
    and more in the current issue of Barron's (subscription may be required).
    Select excerpts are below.
    "Given our economic forecast, we favor a high-quality tilt. That’s Treasuries, municipal bonds, and investment-grade [securities]. But there is also an opportunity in riskier parts of the market—high yield and emerging markets—where we are going to have a selective approach."
    "Another reason that people like Treasuries, and why we like them, is they are the purest diversification play if you have a portfolio heavy in equities. If we’re headed into a recession, typically these bonds will rally, but it also means credit risk is rising, which means corporate bonds can lag behind Treasuries in a rally. Corporate bonds will have more correlation to the equity market."
    "The third area where we are seeing good flows is municipal bonds. Last year, the muni market saw record outflows because investors had the unique opportunity to tax-loss harvest [sell losing stock positions to offset taxable gains]. That selling drove an overshoot in valuations to the cheap side. And this was in stark contrast to the fundamental value, which is strong: Over 70% of muni debt is rated AA or higher."
    Link
  • 15% “hit” to ADR dividend payment for “foreign tax”
    The foreign tax withholdings are lost money in an IRA. ADR with foreign tax withholdings should be held in a taxable account. Canadian and UK stocks can be held in an IRA since they do not withhold taxes on dividends held in an tax deferred.
    Sounds reasonable. The only problem I’d have is I trade in & out of this ADR about a dozen times a year, locking-in short term gains and taking profits. To my knowledge there’s been no short-term cap gains taxes reported or paid. Trading like that inside a taxable account might create a lot of short-term cap-gain taxes - and a nightmare at tax time.
    Anyone know if U.S. capital gains tax law would be the same for an ADR?
    From robockman1 - “The foreign tax withholdings are lost money in an IRA.” - But wouldn’t that also apply to a fund like DODFX? Wondering if that “lost money” just isn’t noticed because it’s hidden inside the “other fund expenses.” ?
  • S&P Enters Bull Market
    ”It’s official. We’re in a bull market” / Article
    Nice to report some good news.
    The S&P 500 rallied Thursday to end the day in a bull market, marking a 20% surge since its most recent low, reached on October 12, 2022. That brings to end the bear market that began in January 2022. Buoyed by gains in big technology stocks, the broad-based index closed at 4,293.93 and crossed the threshold that separates a bear market from a bull market — that’s investor-speak for a period of time marked by rising stock prices and optimism on Wall Street. Investors are certainly in a buying mood: CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hit ‘Extreme Greed’ Thursday. Markets have remained surprisingly resilient over the past nine months, as 2022 losers like tech and media have bounced back from a disastrous year on hope that the worst is over for those industries.
    d
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @LewisBraham- Sorry, but I have to disagree on this one- the Examiner article refers to an individual as I described above in reply to Anna: an ordinary person who has fallen on really bad times. There are in fact a number of organizations here in SF who do really excellent work in helping out in those types of situations, and my wife and I have substantially supported them for many years.
    To repeat- the majority though, at least here in SF, are druggies, thieves and crazies who respond to nothing other than their next high. A number of the hotels described in the Examiner article were substantially trashed during the pandemic temporary housing program- something that the Examiner chose not to report.
    A short excerpt from a pertinent report in the San Francisco Chronicle:

    Hotels are seeking millions from S.F. for damage when they were homeless shelters.
    Hotel Union Square’s cleanup bill was steep — $5.6 million to repair rampant smoke damage, broken light fixtures, mold and other problems.
    As city supervisors consider shelling out millions to settle the dispute over damages at one of San Francisco’s hotel homeless shelters, taxpayers could be on the hook for millions more to settle similar claims from other hotels that participated in the program.
    In September 2021, the owners of Hotel Union Square filed a claim with the city, alleging unhoused residents who the city had placed there had caused $5.6 million in damages — and cost the Dallas-based hotel operator hundreds of thousands more in lost rent.
    City officials created the Hotel Program in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and used it to house more than 3,700 high-risk residents in 25 hotels. With federal and state funding drying up, the city has gradually closed most of the hotels.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February. There is even more negativity on commercial real estate. Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash.
    Your comment sounds like a pitch to be a buy and hold investor now. That seems a bit out of character for a well known trader.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February. There is even more negativity on commercial real estate. Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash.
  • Treasuries Flood is Coming
    Looks like the bond market will take a hit as a consequence. Gains made this year could be in jeopardy. Great...
    I agree with Derf's comments above that "flood" is not an accurate descriptive term. This statement, "Treasury plans to increase issuance of Treasury bills to continue financing the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with Treasury’s cash balance policy. Initial increases in bill issuance will be focused on shorter-tenor benchmark securities and cash management bills (CMBs), including the introduction of a regular weekly 6-week CMB (the first of which will be announced on June 8)." I see phrases like "gradually rebuild cash balance" and "initial increases...will be focused on shorter-tenor...securities", as suggestive of slow and careful actions, not a "flooding" of issuance of Treasuries. I expect both Treasuries and CDs to reflect these more gradual increases, to not spook the market, and not lead to an unnecessary recession.
  • Treasuries Flood is Coming
    Looks like the bond market will take a hit as a consequence. Gains made this year could be in jeopardy. Great...
  • Income vs Total Return
    Example - VWINX, VWELX, PRWCX, Benchmark VFINX (SP500)
    Terminal Balances PRWCX (highest), SP500, VWELX, VWINX (lowest)
    Intrinsic Income (including CGs) covered the withdrawals.
    3-yr SDs SP500 (highest), PRWCX, VWELX, VWINX (lowest)
    Max Drawdown SP500 (highest), PRWCX, VWELX, VWINX
    Total Return (TWRR) PRWCX, SP500, VWELX, VWINX
    These results were in line with expectations. Note that while PRWCX is often in the moderate-allocation category, it is a capital appreciation fund with the goal to beat the SP500 with less volatility, and it has been successful in that.
    PV run is from 01/1987 (without PRWCX, it could run from 01/1985) PV RUN2
  • Owner to give up two of San Francisco’s largest hotels
    Following is a current report from the San Francisco Chronicle. Anyone holding investments in real estate might want to take notice.
    Park Hotels & Resorts, the owner of two of San Francisco’s biggest hotels — Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55 — has stopped mortgage payments and plans to give up the two properties, in another sign of disinvestment in hard-hit downtown.
    Park Hotels & Resorts said Monday that it stopped making payments on a $725 million loan due in November and expects the “ultimate removal of these hotels” from its portfolio. The company said it would “work in good faith with the loan’s servicers to determine the most effective path forward.”
    The 1,921-room Hilton is the city’s largest hotel and the 1,024-room Parc 55 is the fourth-largest, and together they account for around 9% of the city’s hotel stock. The hotels could potentially be taken over by lenders or sold to a new group as part of the foreclosure process.
    “After much thought and consideration, we believe it is in the best interest for Park’s stockholders to materially reduce our current exposure to the San Francisco market. Now more than ever, we believe San Francisco’s path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges — both old and new,” said Thomas Baltimore Jr., CEO of Park Hotels, in a statement.
    Those challenges include a record high office vacancy of around 30%, concerns over street conditions, a lower rate of return to office compared to other cities and “a weaker than expected citywide convention calendar through 2027 that will negatively impact business and leisure demand,” he said.
    Park Hotels said San Francisco's convention-driven demand is expected to be 40% lower between 2023 and 2027 compared to the pre-pandemic average.
    San Francisco Travel, the city’s convention bureau, expects Moscone Center conventions to account for over 670,000 hotel room nights this year, higher than 2018’s 660,868 room nights but far below 2019’s record-high 967,956. And weaker convention attendance is projected for each following year through 2030.
    Tourism spending more than doubled in 2022 to $7.4 billion compared to the previous year. A full recovery isn’t expected until 2024 or 2025.
    The company expects to save over $200 million in capital expenditures over the next five years after giving up the hotels, and to issue a special dividend to shareholders of $150 million to $175 million. The company's exposure will shift away from San Francisco towards the higher-growth Hawaii market.
    Parc 55 is a block from Westfield San Francisco Centre, the mall where Nordstrom is departing, and the block where Banko Brown, an alleged shoplifter, was killed in a shooting outside a Walgreens in April. Nearby blocks are also full of empty storefronts, as tourist and local foot traffic hasn’t fully recovered.
    Other hotels have faced financial distress. Atop Nob Hill, the historic Huntington Hotel was sold earlier this year after a mortgage default.
  • US economy adds 339,000 jobs in May, crushing expectations
    Regarding Jobs & Inflation:
    Are we Re-shoring inflation as we re-shore jobs? Very different set of dynamics this decade (since COVID).
    Prior to 2020:
    Some inflation could be exported to the developing world. A portion of US inflation was offset by imports. In a sense, low paying jobs overseas produced products that they could sell to the US in exchange for treasuries.
    Foreign countries would purchase treasuries in exchange for imported goods. Holding US treasuries allows the foreign country the ability to control inflation in their country. Win-win with regard to inflation.
    What will this “inflation trade” look like going forward?
  • Driehaus Micro Cap Growth Fund re-opening to certain existing investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1016073/000139834423011419/fp0083721-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0083721-1_497.htm
    25 East Erie Street
    Chicago, Illinois 60611
    1-800-560-6111
    DRIEHAUS MICRO CAP GROWTH FUND
    Ticker: *DMCRX
    (the “Fund”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 1, 2023
    TO THE PROSPECTUS AND SUMMARY PROSPECTUS FOR THE FUND DATED APRIL 30, 2023
    (the “Prospectus” and “Summary Prospectus, respectively)
    On May 31, 2023, the Board of Trustees of the Driehaus Mutual Funds approved the re-opening of the Driehaus Micro Cap Growth Fund (the “Fund”) to certain existing investors, as further described below. This change, referred to as a “soft-close,” will be effective immediately after 4:00 pm Eastern Time on June 9, 2023.
    You may purchase Fund shares and reinvest dividends and capital gains you receive on your holdings of Fund shares in additional shares of the Fund if you are:
    ·A current Fund shareholder;
    ·A participant in a qualified retirement plan that offers the Fund as an investment option or that has the same or a related plan sponsor as another qualified retirement plan that offers the Fund as an investment option; or
    ·A financial advisor or registered investment adviser whose clients have Fund accounts.
    You may open a new account in the Fund if you:
    ·Are an employee of Driehaus Capital Management LLC (the “Adviser”) or its affiliates or a Trustee of Driehaus Mutual Funds;
    ·Exchange your shares of another Driehaus Mutual Fund for shares of the Fund;
    ·Hold shares of the Fund in another account, provided your new account and your existing account are registered under the same address of record, the same primary Social Security Number or Taxpayer Identification Number, the same name(s), and the same beneficial owner(s); or
    ·Are a financial advisor or registered investment adviser whose clients have Fund accounts.
    These restrictions apply to investments made directly through Foreside Financial Services LLC, the Fund’s distributor, as well as investments made through intermediaries. Intermediaries that maintain omnibus accounts are not allowed to open new sub-accounts for new investors, unless the investor meets the criteria listed above. Once an account is closed, additional investments will not be accepted unless you meet the criteria listed above. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before an investment is accepted. The Fund reserves the right to (i) eliminate any of the exceptions listed above and impose additional restrictions on purchases of Fund shares; and (ii) make additional exceptions that, in the Adviser’s judgment, do not adversely affect its ability to manage the Fund.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    For more information, please call the Driehaus Mutual Funds at 1-800-560-6111
  • Delaware Ivy International Small Cap Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883622/000113743923000766/delivyintlsmallcap052023497.htm
    497 1 delivyintlsmallcap052023497.htm
    IVY FUNDS
    Delaware Ivy International Small Cap Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement to the Fund’s Prospectuses each dated January 30, 2023, as amended
    On May 24, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Ivy Funds unanimously voted to approve a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. The liquidation and dissolution are expected to take effect on or about August 31, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”) and the proceeds (less mandatory tax withholding) will be provided to the address of record if no action is taken. Retirement accounts held directly on the transfer agency platform within the Fund will be liquidated on or about the Liquidation Date and the proceeds (less mandatory tax withholding) will be mailed to the address of record if no action is taken.
    Shortly before the Liquidation Date, the Fund may convert to cash and cash equivalent positions as a temporary defensive measure to preserve value. After the Fund is converted to cash, it may not achieve its investment objective. For Fund accounts with automated purchases, exchanges, and/or withdrawals established, these transactions will cease prior to liquidation if no action is taken.
    The Fund will be closed to new investors and all sales efforts will cease as of the date of this Supplement. However, the Fund will continue to accept purchases from existing shareholders (including reinvested dividends or capital gains) until five (5) business days before the Liquidation Date.
    Until the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund will have the opportunity to exchange their shares for shares of the same class of any other Delaware Funds by Macquarie® fund. Any exchange would be made at the current net asset values of the Fund and the selected Delaware Fund. Shareholders may redeem their Fund shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No applicable contingent deferred sales charge will be assessed in connection with any redemption of shares from the Fund prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Effective the date of this Supplement, the following is inserted before the first paragraph of the Fund’s prospectus section entitled, “Fund summaries — Delaware International Small Cap Fund — Purchase and redemption of Fund shares”:
    The Fund is liquidating and is therefore closed to new investors. Existing shareholders of the Fund may continue to purchase shares until five (5) business days before August 31, 2023.
    Because everyone’s tax situation is unique, you should consult your tax professional about federal, state, local, or foreign tax consequences before making an investment in a Fund.
    Delaware Management Company is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited (MGL). None of the entities noted in this document is an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia) and the obligations of these entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (Macquarie Bank). Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment (a) each investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group company guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.
    Please keep this Supplement for future reference.
    This Supplement is dated May 31, 2023.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Finra fines Vanguard $800,000 for misleading information on money market accounts
    "The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. found that from November 2019 to September 2020, Vanguard Marketing Corp. miscalculated the estimated annual yield and annual income for nine money market funds on approximately 8.5 million account statements, according to the Finra order posted Thursday."
    "The firm failed to update the yield data due to 'a technical issue where newer information received through an automated data feed did not overwrite certain existing data,' which led to the yield and income projections being overstated."
    "From October 2019 to March 2021, the firm received communications from 100 customers who pointed out miscalculations and other errors on their statements. It failed to investigate promptly, Finra said, but did correct the statements after finally looking into the problems."
    Link
  • ORK? WTF. Transaction, TRP. (Got an answer.)
    Fidelity will automatically reinvest all distribution (dividend and capital gain), whereas Vanguard requires the owners to specify how to handle the distribution. I make sure all my distribution are reinvested and not to the sweep account. You may want to review how TRP handles these distribution with your funds. If in doubt, call their representatives.
  • Delaware Ivy Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883622/000113743923000756/ivyemmkt052023497.htm
    IVY FUNDS
    Delaware Ivy Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus
    each dated January 30, 2023, as amended
    On May 24, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Ivy Funds unanimously voted to approve a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. The liquidation and dissolution are expected to take effect on or about August 31, 2023 (“Liquidation Date”). Retirement accounts held directly on the transfer agency platform within the Fund will be liquidated on or about the Liquidation Date and the proceeds (less mandatory tax withholding) will be mailed to the address of record if no action is taken.
    Shortly before the Liquidation Date, the Fund may convert to cash and cash equivalent positions as a temporary defensive measure to preserve value. After the Fund is converted to cash, it may not achieve its investment objective. For Fund accounts with automated purchases, exchanges, and/or withdrawals established, these transactions will cease prior to liquidation if no action is taken.
    The Fund will be closed to new investors and all sales efforts will cease as of the date of this Supplement. However, the Fund will continue to accept purchases from existing shareholders (including reinvested dividends or capital gains) until five (5) business days before the Liquidation Date.
    Until the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund will have the opportunity to exchange their shares for shares of the same class of any other Delaware Funds by Macquarie® fund. Any exchange would be made at the current net asset values of the Fund and the selected Delaware Fund. Shareholders may redeem their Fund shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No applicable contingent deferred sales charge will be assessed in connection with any redemption of shares from the Fund prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Effective the date of this Supplement, the following is inserted before the first paragraph in the section of the prospectus entitled “Fund summaries – Delaware Ivy Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Fund – Purchase and redemption of Fund shares”:
    The Fund is liquidating and is therefore closed to new investors. Existing shareholders of the Fund may continue to purchase shares until five (5) business days before August 31, 2023.
    Because everyone’s tax situation is unique, you should consult your tax professional about federal, state, local, or foreign tax consequences before making an investment in the Fund or acting on a distribution check (if applicable).
    Delaware Management Company is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited (MGL). None of the entities noted in this document is an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia) and the obligations of these entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (Macquarie Bank). Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment (a) each investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group company guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.
    Please keep this Supplement for future reference.
    This Supplement is dated May 31, 2023.
  • What happened to CCOR?
    Morningstar's gutted portfolio list (it now shows only the top 10 holdings) shows that nine of the top 10 holdings made money over the past 12 months with eight posting double-digit gains.
    Given a sideways comment in the manager's latest update and the strong equity performance (at last in the largest holdings), it appears that they dramatically screwed up their options position, anticipating a sharp collapse and seeing, instead strong gains.
    I still see longer Portfolio Holdings (up to 100 in up to 10 pages) at M* for many OEFs, ETFs, CEFs.
    But for CCOR, M* says (my bold), "This investment's holding data is suppressed to show the top 10." It may be one of those nontransparent active equity ETFs with complicated holding disclosure rules.
  • What happened to CCOR?
    Morningstar's gutted portfolio list (it now shows only the top 10 holdings) shows that nine of the top 10 holdings made money over the past 12 months with eight posting double-digit gains.
    Given a sideways comment in the manager's latest update and the strong equity performance (at last in the largest holdings), it appears that they dramatically screwed up their options position, anticipating a sharp collapse and seeing, instead strong gains.
  • What happened to CCOR?
    I believe CCOR has been mentioned by Lynn Bolin in his articles about conservative funds for declining markets. I followed it but never bought it despite its solid record until 2023. It holds large dividend payers while writing options on equity indices to temper volatility. VIG, by way of comparison, is up about 1.7% YTD. May be that dividend heavy funds are not keeping up with overall market.
    It had a good reputation on the board based on discussions going back over a year. I did have a small holding for a while in mid-2022. While I don’t understand this stuff completely, I know it sells puts as a defensive tactic which are supposed to rise as equity markets fall. Held up well in 2020 when markets swooned. Seems to have gone “kaput” this time around.
    One simple theory might be that the type of conservative investors who buy a fund like this (or the defensive holdings it uses) have sold in large quantities and simply moved into cash and CDs with short term rates as high as they are. My guess is it will bounce back. Wish I had some extra dough to throw at it.