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Stocks Set for Last Hurrah as Year Draws to Close

hank
edited December 2023 in Other Investing
“US futures were steady on the last trading day of the year, with the S&P 500 a whisker away from a record high and global shares on track for their best annual performance since 2019. The S&P 500 (SPX) traded just a few points away from its all-time peak on Thursday, extending its 2023 advance to nearly 25%. The Nasdaq 100 has already posted its best year since 1999 on expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively in 2024.”

(Excerpted from Bloomberg Media Website before the open this morning - subscription required.)

Comments

  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    IMO, the big news of 2023 was that boring/lagging cyclicals DJIA made an all-time high. Prior/current sprinters SP500 and Nasdaq Comp may just have to wait for 2024 to make new all-time highs. Then, the CNBC would have new-highs specials again.
    StockCharts View 2.5 yrs https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$INDU&compare=$COMPQ,$SPX&id=p83812329512
  • CrashCrash
    Closing bell 90 minutes away. Looks to be a ho-hum day, down, not up. Sometimes, my single stocks surprise me at the last minute. We'll see. Certainly has been a better back-end to 2023 than the months earlier. Happy Motoring!
  • rforno
    After the (imo) over-extended run-up over the past few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me to see the market barf into the close of the year as people lock in some extra profits for 2023. But who knows? Not even the Shadow!
  • Tarwheel
    edited December 2023
    2023 went out with a whimper rather than a bang, but it was a better year than most expected. I was most surprised by the rally in bond funds over the past couple months. Also surprised by the performance of foreign funds, which still trailed the S&P but did well on an absolute basis. FCNTX was my best performing fund, returning nearly 40%, which was much better than expected but not surprising that it led my other funds.

    The overall value of my portfolio is still below its peak in 2021, but not far behind. My taxable account grew a lot in 2023, from investment returns as well as interest from CDs, Treasuries, money markets and short term bond funds. I also started drawing Social Security payments in 2023 and our overall income exceeded our expenses by quite a lot.
  • hank
    edited December 2023
    Looks like consumer staples / defensive stocks did well today. My 3 individual picks in those areas kept me afloat. Most of my funds were down or flattish today.

    Yes. Out with a whimper …
  • MikeMMikeM
    And now it's time to look at 2024!

    What I've noticed gathering steam over the last month is REITs and the obvious, small caps. I know the pundits love SC's going forward. I haven't read anyone promoting REITS, but I wonder. I picked up Avantis Real Estate ETF, AVRE a couple weeks ago, just to be contrarian from others. Very small bet though.
  • Observant1
    edited December 2023
    @MikeM,

    Barron's published The Best Income Investments for 2024 yesterday.
    REITs are mentioned in the article.
    FWIW, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Goldfarb believes the sector's outlook is good.
    He likes Simon Property, Brixmor Property Group, Kite Realty Group Trust,
    EastGroup Properties and Terreno Realty.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-best-income-investments-for-2024/ar-AA1mdhxj
  • MikeMMikeM
    Thanks @Observant1. I got my paper this morning but haven't dug in yet. I'll check it out tomorrow.
  • CrashCrash
    REITs.
    I recall @davidmoran likes FRT. Still 26% undervalued (Morningstar.)
    Stock Rover pegs the target price @$107.50, just 4.32% from where it sits at the end of 2023. I continue to track it.

    2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
    9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
    1-year return: +6.74%.
    Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
    Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?





  • Graust
    Crash said:


    (Snip)
    2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
    9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
    1-year return: +6.74%.
    Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
    Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?

    @Crash, payout ratio uses “dividends” divided by GAAP earnings.

    The best measure of “earnings” (or distributable cash flow) for REITs (due to accounting rules like depreciation etc. which don’t affect cash flow) is funds from operation/adjusted funds from operation (FFO/AFFO)….a quick Google search found PSTL’s AFFO is $1.01, with a distribution of 95 cents. That’s a mid 90’s% payout ratio, which doesn’t allow much retained capital for growth (meaning debt or equity issuance will be required for growth).

    Sorry if you know all of this!:)

    Happy New Year
  • CrashCrash
    edited January 1
    Graust said:

    Crash said:


    (Snip)
    2024 will determine whether I stick with PSTL. David Sherman warned about share dilution in the REIT sector, and that DID happen in '23. Very attractive dividend, though, and lots of room for growth.
    9% undervalued. (Morningstar.)
    1-year return: +6.74%.
    Price/Cash Flow 10.37%
    Yield: 6.52%. Payout ratio: 728.85% is NUTS. What gives with that?

    @Crash, payout ratio uses “dividends” divided by GAAP earnings.

    The best measure of “earnings” (or distributable cash flow) for REITs (due to accounting rules like depreciation etc. which don’t affect cash flow) is funds from operation/adjusted funds from operation (FFO/AFFO)….a quick Google search found PSTL’s AFFO is $1.01, with a distribution of 95 cents. That’s a mid 90’s% payout ratio, which doesn’t allow much retained capital for growth (meaning debt or equity issuance will be required for growth).

    Sorry if you know all of this!:)

    Happy New Year
    A good explanation. Thank you!
    EDIT to add: Just remembered that REITS are REQUIRED to pay-out something like 90% of profits, yes? So, then......
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    I may try and play frt this year

    An in-law works there and some aspects of business are good
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