The TSP is what it is. I might, however, point to the L income performance. While most elderly retirees have lost about 15% in most commercial target retirement income funds, retirees in L income have only lost 6%. The G has crept up a bit but doesn't seem to have the superior returns to many commercial vehicles that it once had. (Maybe it was always a myth; I don't know.) The equity funds are what they are - broad indexes. They probably mimic any other commercial offering for the same index fund. Truth be told, when income funds are down 15%, equity dominant funds being down more, even twice as much, isn't a stretch of my imagination. One might admit, however, that, when the G fund is available for ballast, it is a good thing. Many, like myself, are hoping that the recent changes that open the TSP to a commercial window don't drive up expenses for everyone and don't trash the plan entirely. Right now, it is reportedly non-functional. I haven't been able to fix my beneficiary after my husband's death. I don't think; who knows? Nothing is guaranteed updated or accurate. I am worried that RMDs won't come off in December as designed. With the disfunction, the only indicator might be whether you received the check or deposit. It is a mess, a royal, stupid, unnecessary mess with no real end in sight.

And how about the even more conservative( about 29% equity) VTINX which is off -15.77% YTD as of yesterday. Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund is my benchmark and I am happy to say I am beating it handily.

Possibly the Chestnut Street Exchange Fund (CHNTX) and/or BlackRock Exchange Portfolio (STSEX) for a retirement account.
Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund (BCSIX , BCSSX) would be nice also.

FWIW, as of close Sept.23, misery loves company. Here is a look at some diversified TRP retirement funds as benchmarks - YTD losses.
TRRAX 44% equity -16.7%
TRRBX 50% equity -17.7%
TRRCX 68% equity -20.7%
TRRDX 87% equity -25.5%
Fan favorite balanced/allocation fund:
PRWCX -14.6%

Interesting article near the end of Barron’s print edition (September 26, 2022) credited to Rick Lear of Lear Investment Management.
Caption - “What Investors Got Wrong About Risk”
Basic premise seems to be that fixed income, particularly bonds is, and never was, a proper method for managing / quantifying risk in a portfolio.
Excerpt:
“Risk is one of the most widely discussed topics in the business. It is also one of the most misunderstood. The investment industry relies heavily on a statistical tool called standard deviation to gauge risk. In technical terms, standard deviation calculates the dispersion of a data set, relative to its mean. In other words, the more varied an investment strategy's returns are, relative to its average return, the riskier that strategy is thought to be. Strategies with low standard deviation, where returns are tightly bunched up near their historic average, are considered more predictable and therefore less risky. This view of risk emboldened investors to rebalance into bonds at a time of growing market turmoil, as the broad fixed-income market's standard deviation, over the past three years, has been around a fifth that of stocks, implying that bonds are expected to lose less than stocks in a down year.”
-
Not well versed in modern “standard deviation” methodology - which Lear critiques. However, he suggests that rather than mitigating risk with bond exposure one needs to be selective in holding particular assets that have offsetting risk characteristics. Humm … For most of the twenty-five years I’ve followed markets bonds have indeed been good volatility hedges. I suppose we might conclude from our recent 2022 experience to date that this time “things really are different.”
Check-out the year to date performance of your favorite conservative allocation fund. VWINX (albeit more of an income fund) is the best of the lot IMHO. Off more than 13% year-to-date by Fido’s accounting - worse than some equity funds. But still it’s held up better than TRP’s “Retirement Balanced Fund” TRRIX by a percent or two. In its early days TRRIX was labeled “Retirement Income Fund.” Fortunate, perhaps, that Price elected to rename it more than a decade ago.
(Sorry - Not able to provide links to the Barron’s print edition I draw from.)

No wonder why Woods screaming ****rate halt ...deflation*** past few wks. She maybe couple months early
So many folks lost $$ these days
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/she-never-explained-anything-im-a-senior-citizen-and-i-lost-100-000-in-the-stock-market-this-year-can-i-sue-my-financial-adviser-11663719152?mod=quentin-fottrell
Dear Quentin,
I am a senior citizen and have suffered major losses to the tune of $100,000 in the recent stock market turmoil. Can I sue my financial adviser? I understand the dynamics of the market as far as its ups and downs, and have ridden them out before.
However, it’s been different with the market in this timeframe insofar as tech stocks are taking a major hit, as well as others. I advised my financial adviser I was heading into retirement months before all of this happened.
As my account was taking losses, she did nothing to warn me that given the current situation it might be a good idea to move my assets to another area to lessen the losses — and return at a later date when things have stabilized.
....

@hank

Good! Makes investing more interesting.

I think unpredictability is good in sports and works of art, but am less enthused about it for the finances of millions of Americans whose retirements are tied to securities markets. It’s one of the reasons I’m a strong believer in Social Security and don’t think it should ever be tied to the stock market.

@LewisBraham - I was speaking as 1 individual investor, which I’m sure you realize. Not everyone possesses your depth of knowledge or my keen interest in investing.
Oh, I agree. It’s absurd that individuals of every education level and walk of life and having vastly disparate incomes during their working years should be expected to manage a retirement portfolio during all their working years and than continue to manage such after retiring. Just nuts. I know well one such individual. Sure didn’t work for him, even with a company match which he did not take full advantage of. That 401-K money was 100% “out the window” after about 3 years into retirement.
I don’t know what the answer is, but would support better SS or other public initiatives to try and level the playing field..

BLNDX/REMIX, @BaluBalu, allocate approximately 40% to global equities, mainly via long ETFs, and some 60% to futures (long or short) contracts on currencies, commodities, and fixed income. The Standpoint web site and their monthly updates provide good info on what their multi-asset fund holds, what positions worked well or poorly over the previous month, and what exposure changes have taken place.
https://www.standpointfunds.com/fund/brochure
This remains the largest holding in our active account and has a decent presence in two Roths, having replaced traditional allocation MFs such as JBALX, PRSIX, or BRUFX. On the other hand, in my retirement account at TIAA I still use target date funds for a decent slice of the portfolio. The latter account is managed very passively.

+1
All true OJ. A guess would be it has to do with the speed of change (in rates). Over time people will get used to 6% mortgages or higher if their income / net worth keep pace.
I well remember the 60s / 70s as a teen age “nerd” who subscribed to U.S. News & World Report at 15 and normally read it twice on a weekend. You may recall that the dollar weakened considerably over those inflationary years as cost of living rose from maybe 5% in the 60s to double-digit by the late 70s. Not to be overlooked, gold soared from $35 to over $800 by the mid 70s. Houses appreciated nicely and just about everybody in the world agreed they were the best investments.
We baby boomers “goosed” the home buying frenzy helping push up interest rates. By contrast, equity investing lagged by about a decade but took off in the 70s as I recall. Once we had our homes, new cars (and in some cases kids) we began investing for retirement. My first home in the late 70s carried something like a 10-11% fixed rate mortgage. As my income kept pace - based on COL adjustments plus “stepping” (increases based on years service) - that interest rate didn’t seem onerous.
So, simply put - It takes time for consumers and markets to adjust to new realities. I think in a plane what we’re witnessing right now might be called “bow shock.”

The tax rates as noted above, are meaningless for the affluent and corps ,as our government allows armies of lawyers and accountants to make a mockery of the rates ,with loopholes for every expense. As Buffet said, "Something is wrong when my secretary pays more taxes than I do". Eventually as result of the the true middle and lower classes getting squeezed out of living wages, ability to buy homes, invest for retirement, buy cars etc etc etc there will a revolution, as there has been multiple in the past ,when these folks have had enough. History has proven this true time and time again. The USA is unfortunately on a huge downward spiral and all government entities and parties are to blame. What we really need here is a new party, " The common sense party" to start reversing this trend before it is too late. With input from middle of the road " experts, common sense referendums and investigations" and other "common sense modalities perhaps we could look at a brighter future. Doubtful this will ever happen though!

It is a good start for many. It helps to visualize how much one gets monthly if their 401(k) are annuitizes. Same goes for one’s social security (depends on when the withdrawal dates). If one fortunate to have a pension plan from their employers, one can get an estimate on that too. The sum of these three sources of income after retirement give a decent estimate on the potential monthly income.
Fidelity has a decent retirement calculator to estimate your income and your expect withdrawal amount. Still there are other parts including insurance and other expense not included.

The Secure Act 2019 requires 401k/403b plans to provide lifetime retirement income illustrations in statements. The first efforts will meet the letter but not the spirit of the law. It seems that most plans will just provide how much lifetime income annuity the current balance could buy if the participant was of retirement age TODAY. This may not be meaningful at all as it ignores potential future contributions, higher accumulations due to interest credits alone, changes in rate environments, etc. Of course, any assumptions made on those may also be controversial.
One way could be to use estimates similar to the ones used for deferred-income annuity (bought earlier for income to start later). At least some accepted methodologies exist for those.
Another way could be similar to how the insurance industry handles cash value illustrations. So, multiple assumed rates (2+) could be used and contributions may be assumed at the current level and with some assumed escalation. That may lead to 4+ possible retirement income streams that may be more helpful.
Whatever is done would involve some controversy.
https://money.yahoo.com/401-k-statements-retirement-savings-181646060.html
https://waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/democrats.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/documents/SECURE Act section by section.pdf
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/342/401k-statements-lifetime-income-illustrations

@MrRuffles,
My Insurance plan is a government subsidized (due to my low income) HDHP ($6500 deduction) plan and is an HSA qualified Plan. Not all HSA owners are upper income.
My question is pertinent to low income, young, healthy individuals who have an HSA as an option. The Saver's Credit is directed at the low income.

But the ability to invest an HSA for the long-term as an investment vehicle for retirement only works if either: (1) you have little need for healthcare throughout your adult life or (2) you have enough disposable income to pay for your healthcare expenses out-of-pocket and don’t need to tap your HSA.
HSA’s were sold as a means to lower the cost of health insurance through HDHP’s but give a tax break for medical expenses for people who couldn’t afford higher premiums. Of course, like everything else in our assbackwards US healthcare system, it turned into a case of the tail wagging the dog.

I often refer questions to Ed Slott's discussion board for IRA questions.
https://irahelp.com/phpBB
A login is required to ask questions. They are very responsive and helpful.
Received this from their forum today:

No. HSAs are not defined as retirement savings. HSAs are established under section 223 of the tax code which is not one of the sections included in the section 25B definition of a qualified retirement savings contribution.
HSAs and IRAs are never treated as one. An HSA is not an IRA despite some of the rules for HSAs referencing IRA rules.

But they’re not intended to be retirement accounts. They only work that way for people who have enough income to cover their medical expenses in a HDHP out-of-pocket. It’s another way the tax code favors upper-income taxpayers.

@Orage
-Contributions are tax deductible much like a IRA,
-Has yearly contribution limits much like an IRA,
-Non-HSA withdrawals are treated like tax deferred withdrawal after age 65 much like a TIRA
-Oftened mentioned together with other retirement accounts:

Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) are very interesting from a tax perspective. Compared to well-known retirement account types (for example – 401k, IRA, Roth IRA, etc.)

can-hsa-retirement-account
Quacks like a duck..walks like a duck...

Why would you think it might? The link you provide shows the five types of contributions that are allowed and HSAs don't appear on that list.
• contributions you make to a traditional or Roth IRA,
• elective salary deferral contributions to a 401(k), 403(b), governmental 457(b), SARSEP, or SIMPLE plan,
• voluntary after-tax employee contributions made to a qualified retirement plan (including the federal Thrift Savings Plan) or 403(b) plan,
• contributions to a 501(c)(18)(D) plan, or
• contributions made to an ABLE account for which you are the designated beneficiary (beginning in 2018).

I can't seem to find any information on whether an HSA qualifies for the IRS Tax "Saver's Credit".
Retirement Savings Contributions Credit (Saver’s Credit):
IRS Website:
retirement-savings-contributions-savers-credit

Granted, there's probably a difference between what the Fed says publicly and what they tell each other. But the Fed is still in aggressive mode. I can't imagine any decent improvement in my portfolio until the middle of next year, earliest. As Ron Baron says: one's investing timeline needs to be.... pretty much infinite. THEN, you're not constrained or nervous about what happens each day. I do like to spend time here and with the Markets, though. Retirement agrees with me, VERY much.

@Hank, so this is an extreme example of the absolute kookiness that has taken place over the past few years with the fed's balance sheet expanding by 10x over the past dozen or so years. Social media, media assisted in driving the sheeple to lose their money in this Schmuddel. I can see this fund getting cut in half once again from here. Who knows?
So ryhmed with the late 90's, no? Next generation of investors/sheeple done learnt their lesson, maybe?
So...question for the class...let's talke about GAAP accounting or maybe better said the lack of it pertaining to most/many tech companies.
Do they or do they not pay many of their assocatiates with stock...what about intangibles...is that on the balance sheet? What happens to their "earnings" if you put those "true" expenses back on there? Aren't some of those companies another farce similar to ARKK...Can some CPA/Finance expert explain Salesforce, CRM, the rollup of over 60 companies to me and what is really going on there. I have no idea but am wondering, asking for a friend? Compare it to MSFT who DOES report using GAAP, I beleive.
And now those of us who don't suckle of the teet of the public tax payer with a pension have to fund our retirement in this piece of sheet casino?
Baseball Fan