Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Our Funds Boat, week + .87%, YTD + .87%, It is settled.....finally
    Howdy,
    Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
    For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
    NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
    While looking around.....It is settled.....MFO is a most grand internet station in life for individual investors; and I will add, professionals could learn and thing or three here, too. There were several topical areas in the threads last week, receiving lively postings. At least one critical subject area of investing was settled, once and for all time: the buy and hold scenario vs market/trend timing over long time frames and which performs best.....okay, I wrote a small lie, eh? The discussion, none the less; is worthy for all to consider for their own purpose. Historical and societal aspects were also discussed; and my main take away on this is how all of us are affected by the who, what, when and where of our lives to this date. We all have modifiers of events in our lives that become part of who we are today; and may affect our investment behaviors; although our DNA's are almost pure mirrors of one another, a few small variables here and there, keep all of us different. Be it further settled, that the overwhelming conclusion is that; Homo sapiens are a most complex creature. Our house is glad and pleased that you are here.
    I have noted a few things below, in the Buy/Sell/Portfolio section.
    I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
    This 1st link to Bloomberg is for their list of balanced funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?Sector=888&pid=invest_mutualfunds&ListBy=YTD&Term=1
    These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Symbol=$HF&Category=CA
    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Category=MA&Type=&symbol=$HF
    Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
    We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
    Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
    Comments and questions always welcomed.
    Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
    Take care,
    Catch
    SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
    NONE

    A reflection upon the links above; we attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 4 funds we watch for benchmarking are the following:
    ***Note: these YTD's per M*
    VWINX ....YTD = + .13%
    PRPFX ....YTD = + 1.2%
    SIRRX .....YTD = + .13%
    HSTRX ....YTD = + .16%
    None of these 4 are twins to our holdings, but we do watch these as a type of rough guage.
    Portfolio Thoughts:
    Our holdings had a +.87 % move this past week. Well, we may give the markets another week or two; but as the markets don't really care much about calendar dates and what year it may be, one finds many circumstances to be in place today as they were two weeks ago, as expected. Our house, for 2012 investments; is attempting to discover evidence that this year will not be unlike 2011, with the exception of a post election period. All evidence you may be able to provide to the contrary is greatly appreciated. This leads to the next thought of a small rework of our holdings with selling the majority of our positions in LSBDX and TEGBX. Selling is not the hardest part for this house, but what to do with the new monies. For 2012, if equities do "ok", LSBDX may have a so-so return, based upon what one witnessed for 2011. Not quite sure about TEGBX, but this fund reacted similar to LSBDX in 2011. So, let the studies begin and watch the first few weeks of this new year.
    The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
    CASH = 0%
    Mixed bond funds = 91.9%
    Equity funds = 8.1%
    -Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
    -Diversified bond funds 19.8%
    -HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
    -Total bond funds 17.8%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
    FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
    FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
    RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    FDVLX Fidelity Value
    FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
    FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
    MACSX Matthews Asia Growth-Income
  • Just bought more MAPIX
    I also like MAPTX (Pacific Tiger) as well in combination with MAPIX or MACSX because MAPTX has a deeper "emerging" flavor to it especially because it leaves out Japan and Australia.
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=530169
    Fund Manager Q&A
    Asia Is Front-Runner in Global-Growth Race
    ===========================
    "Sharat Shroff is a portfolio manager at Matthews International Capital Management. He manages the firm's Pacific Tiger and India strategies and comanages the firm's Asia Growth strategy. Specific to Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX), he recently answered our questions on how to navigate the market in times of volatility while at the same time minimizing risk potential. He also offered a constructive outlook for China in 2012 and how investing in smaller markets such as Thailand and Indonesia can provide a boost to overall investment opportunities. Lastly, Shroff mentioned that focusing on household-income-driven industries, such as the consumer, health-care, and financials sectors, is prudent."
  • Dear, MJG re: Time in the market
    Gambling......flip a coin...no market timing here....each new flip has the same probability....50/50
    Speculating....timing here works, maybe....weigh the probabilities....fundamentals and technicals against historical outcomes.....return on treasuries a high probability, close to actual Investing....while the return of XLF to previous glory is not an investment(speculation) I would like to make, but is an example of market timing...current choice to withhold funds....
    Investing.....?....not sure in today's climate what I would classify as an investment.....home ownership...no.....stocks....that's worked out super for the last decade.....treasuries....yeh, right...at 0 percent....how about something that will return capital whole....I keep hoping....
  • Just bought more MAPIX
    Reply to @MaxBialystock: The difference with Marketfield is that the fund isn't quite as strict with the "short" part of long/short and attempts to be more flexible, dialing up/down long and short exposure as it sees fit. The fund also makes sizable macro calls. It's a pretty unique fund in the long/short space.
    Definitely do your own research, but if you want to consider including alternative strategies, it is worth a look.
    _______________________________________________________
    From a Marketwatch article on the fund:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flexibility-is-key-for-marketfield-fund-2011-10-25
    "Michael Aronstein's Marketfield fund has one big advantage many other mutual funds don't: flexibility.
    Aronstein's $764-million fund has a broad mandate, allowing it to go long and short stocks, invest across different sectors and countries, even buy and sell futures and commodities.
    "It's basically a hedge fund in a mutual-fund package," Aronstein said. "We have the flexibility to go pretty much to any asset category, either long or short."
    _______________________________________________________
    The strategy portion of the fund's prospectus:
    "To achieve the Fund's investment objective, the Adviser will allocate the Fund's
    assets among investments in equity securities,fixed-income securities and other
    investment companies, including exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"), in proportions
    consistent with the Adviser's evaluation of their expected risks and returns.
    In making these allocations, the Adviser considers various factors, including
    macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings at a macroeconomic level, anticipated
    inflation and interest rates, consumer risk and its perception of the outlook of
    the capital markets as a whole. A macroeconomic strategy focuses on broad trends
    and is generally distinguished from a strategy that focuses on the prospects of
    particular companies or issuers. The Adviser may allocate the Fund's investments
    between equity and fixed-income securities at its discretion, without limitation.
    The Fund's investments in fixed-income securities normally consist of investment
    grade corporate bonds and debentures, mortgage-backed and asset-backed
    securities, United States Treasury obligations, municipal securities,
    obligations issued by the U.S. Government and its agencies or instrumentalities
    and convertible securities. The Fund may also invest in zero-coupon bonds,
    without limitation. In addition, the Fund may invest up to 30% of its net assets
    in high-yield fixed-income securities commonly referred to as "junk bonds." The
    fixed-income securities in which the Fund invests may have maturities of any
    length and may have variable and floating interest rates.
    The Fund's equity securities investments may include common and preferred stocks
    of U.S. companies of any size. In addition, the Fund may invest up to 50% of its
    net assets in equity or fixed-income options, futures contracts and convertible
    securities and may invest up to 30% of its net assets in swap agreements.
    Additionally, with respect to 50% of the Fund's net assets, the Fund may engage
    in short sales of index-related and other equity securities to reduce its equity
    exposure or to profit from an anticipated decline in the price of the securities
    sold short.
    The Fund may invest up to 50% of its net assets in equity securities of foreign
    companies of any size, including up to 35% of its net assets in securities
    issued by corporations or governments located in developing or emerging
    markets. The Fund's investments in foreign securities may include, but are not
    limited to, American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs"), European Depositary Receipts
    ("EDRs") and Global Depositary Receipts ("GDRs"), including up to 35% of its net
    assets in securities issued by corporations or governments located in developing
    or emerging markets.
    The Fund may borrow money from banks or other financial institutions to purchase
    securities, which is commonly known as "leveraging," in an amount not to exceed
    one-third of its total assets, as permitted by the Investment Company Act of
    1940, as amended (the "1940 Act"), and may also engage in securities lending to
    earn income.
    Security selection for the Fund is driven by the Adviser's top-down analysis of
    economic issues, investor sentiment and investment flows. Once the Adviser has
    identified a theme that either benefits or disadvantages a specific sector or
    country, it seeks to implement an investment strategy that is appropriate for
    the Fund. In some cases, the Adviser utilizes a sector- or country-specific ETF
    that offers exposure to a broad range of securities. In other situations, the
    Adviser may select a single issue that is perceived to be particularly germane
    to a specific concern or a small group of issues with characteristics that match
    the goal of creating portfolio exposure to a macroeconomic theme."
  • Dear, MJG re: Time in the market
    Hi, Catch
    I think it’s normal to be
    “a bit anxious about growth going forward and
    attempting to preserve the existing capital with continued positive returns.”
    MJG and I go around and around when it comes to market timing.
    I believe in it because it has worked for me and several hundred people
    that I have instructed over the years.
    Timing should be a consideration for investors going forward, since the
    past 10-12 years have seen very poor returns using Wall Street’s traditional advice.
    But if we’re happy with our returns, they’re what we expected and all that
    we want, then we should just stick with the one who brought us here.
    Hope you have a profitable 2012.
  • Dear, MJG re: Time in the market
    Howdy Flack,
    Thank you for your time and efforts with the numbers. Our house has been in the markets since 1978; have not had to rebuild from any major market drops related to our holdings in those periods; a bit anxious about growth going forward and attempting to preserve the existing capital with continued positive returns.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Just bought more MAPIX
    78.4 shares. Trad. IRA, credited to 2011. I dunno if China will manage a soft landing or not. And I've said over and over in here that "Asia is the future." That's still true. Even if we ARE in a "New Normal" environment. I think profits and our cap. gains from mutual funds will be more subdued for the foreseeable future, yes. On plain, simple straightforward demographics, Asia will be eating our lunch for years to come. In the West, we've already become an Empire of Consumption rather than Production. Biting off its own nose to spite its face, Asia wants to become like us. Regardless of the broader picture, including ethical considerations, Jakarta, Manila, Beijing and Mumbai will be doing better than ourselves here in the USA, going forward. Short and Medium-term, the dollar might make a temporary comeback. And let's remember that it's Quick-profit-in-and-out TRADERS that drive the market, not INVESTORS. ("In-and-out" remind you of anything in particular? It's deliberate.)
  • Seafarer Capital Partners Overseas Growth and Income Fund
    Reply to @philpill:
    No I do not think this is advertising at all. This board is about Mutual Fund news!
    Andrew Foster was lead manager of the wonderful Asian fund, MACSX and also co-manager of MAPIX.....and he was also Research Director (Matthews Asia).
    He left to start his own firm (Seafarer Capital) and stated that he was interested in opening a new fund one day. It sounds like he is working on it by the looks of things.
    Whether it's in these forums or David Snowball's Monthly Commentaries --- we discuss interesting new up & coming Funds all the time.
  • Seafarer Capital Partners Overseas Growth and Income Fund
    This is an untested fund of a very well tested manager, so this post is very appropriate:
    Andrew Foster is the Lead Portfolio Manager of the Fund
    Experience
    2008 – 2011
    Lead Manager of the Matthews Asia Growth and Income Fund (MACSX)
    2005 – 2008
    Co-Manager of the Matthews Asia Growth and Income Fund (MACSX)
    2003 – 2005
    Assistant Manager of the Matthews Asia Growth and Income Fund (MACSX)
    2005 – 2011
    Founder, Lead Manager and Co-Manager of Matthews India Fund (MINDX)
    2006 – 2011
    Founder, Lead Manager and Co-Manager of Matthews Asia Dividend Fund (MAPIX)
    2008 – 2009
    Acting Chief Investment Officer, Matthews International Capital Management (San Francisco)
    2003 – 2007
    Director of Research, Matthews International Capital Management (San Francisco)
    1998 – 2001
    Investment Analyst, Matthews International Capital Management (San Francisco)
    1996 – 1998
    Business Analyst, A.T. Kearney (Singapore)
  • Seafarer Capital Partners Overseas Growth and Income Fund
    There are some documents in the SEC's Edgar database that look like a draft of the prospectus. Link here:
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000119312511311116/d254427d485apos.htm
    Looks like the fund will have Investor and Institutional fund clases with a expense ratios of 1.6% and 1.45%, respectively.
    There was also more details on the strategy of the fund (posted bellow). Looks interesting...
    "Principal Investment Strategies of the Fund
    Under normal market conditions, the Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing at least 80% of its total net assets in dividend-paying common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible securities and debt obligations of foreign companies.
    The Fund may invest a significant amount of its net assets (50% to 80% under normal market conditions, measured at the time of purchase) in the securities of companies domiciled in developing countries. The Fund’s investment adviser, Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC (“Seafarer” or the “Adviser”), considers that most Central and South American, African, East and South Asian, and Eastern European nations are developing countries. Currently, these nations include, but are not limited to Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam.
    Seafarer identifies developing countries based on its own analysis and measure of industrialization, economic growth, per capita income, and other factors; it may also consider classifications produced by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the United Nations, and private financial services firms such as FTSE and MSCI.
    The Fund may also invest a significant amount of its net assets (20% to 50% under normal market conditions, measured at the time of purchase) in the securities of companies domiciled in selected foreign developed nations, which in the Adviser’s opinion have significant economic and financial linkages to developing countries. Currently, these nations include Australia, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Singapore.
    The Adviser determines a company’s location based on a number of factors. A company is generally regarded by the Adviser as being located in a particular country if the company: (i) is organized under the laws of, maintains its principal place of business in, or has, as its principal trading market for the company’s securities, the particular country; (ii) derives 50% or more of its total revenue or profit from either goods or services produced or sales made in the particular country; or (iii) has more than 50% or more of its assets in the particular country.
    Exposure to non-U.S. companies through the Fund’s investments in exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”), including ETFs organized under U.S. law, will be included in the Fund’s percentage of total net assets invested in non-U.S. securities.
    The Fund may typically invest in convertible securities and debt obligations of any quality or duration. The Fund may generally invest in companies of any size or capitalization, including smaller companies.
    The Fund attempts to offer investors a relatively stable means of participating in a portion of developing countries’ growth prospects, while providing some downside protection, in comparison to a portfolio that invests purely in the common stocks of developing countries. The strategy of owning convertible bonds and dividend-paying equities is intended to help the Fund meet its investment objective while reducing the volatility of the portfolio’s returns."
  • Update on Best Fund Analysis Sites?
    Reply to @chip: Well, there you go.... one of the reasons I love this site - THANK YOU! A wealth of information in the Commentary - including the exact answers I was looking for, by amazing coincidence. Re The Street... if I had known it was that loud, obnoxious guy on CNN that I always instantly switch channels away from, I would have discarded his opinion immediately (why does he have to yell?). And, with the low opinion of Zacks, looks like the US News site won't be as helpful as I was hoping. I love the idea of accumulating ratings from different sources (or just giving total ratings with breakdowns like the old MaxFunds did - but not if the ratings they include are not ones I would pay any attention to. This whole extensive section showing results from M*, Kiplinger, SmartMoney, etc.'s recommendations vs. results very interesting - I really love these type of analysis.
    I also loved the update to stock/bond portfolio allocation percentage differences in returns. One of my favorite links recommended here is the Merriman chart - all these type reinforce my comfortableness with a very conservative portfolio since I don't need the extra gains to have to take the extra risks.
    I always look at the 2-4 funds David briefly mentions worth taking a look at - and I especially like your full reviews (i.e., RNDLX, RPHYX, etc.) and would love to see more of those. THANK YOU SO MUCH, DAVID, for this great site!
    P.S. I keep forgetting about the MFO Home Page and Commentaries. Couldn't tabs for these be placed at the top of these discussions? Would also maybe remind some viewers to donate when they can. Thank you, Anna, for such a nice design job on the Home page... very simple and easy to read! And THANK YOU ACCIPITER for Falcoln's Eye and the new Navigator, GREAT TOOLS! (Note: I tried entering ETF in Navigator, but nothing happened after enter)
    P.P.S. There was a great picture yesterday on the Home page that isn't there now. Really cute child and appealing looking man. Who are they?
  • Any ideas on how Intermediate Bond Funds like DBLTX, ADBLX will fare during next crash?
    JG does a risk-balancing act with DBLTX: he has GNMAs, which did fine during the meltdown, balanced against riskier private mortgages - very little in subprime, mostly Alt-A and prime, bought at bargain prices. The beaten-down private mortgages are where the yield comes from.
    He varies the mix according to outlook; recently he's had the lowest % in riskier assets since the crash, according to his recent webcast. So you might expect him to go further into gov't mortgages if things start to unwind. The catch (not referring to Mark!) is that it could incur some capital losses for a while, with the yield offsetting those losses, and if you hold it in a taxable account, you could end up paying tax on more $ than you've made in total return.
    He does say TR works better in a flat- to up-market for risk assets, while his core fund (DBLFX etc.) will likely do better in a risk-off situation.
  • Pimco Commodity RR - Approx. 12% Distribution Today
    Reply to @bee:
    As Scott (and PIMCO) wrote, what you're seeing are just the quarterly (income) dividends.
    The annual capital gains were distributed Dec 7 (Dec 6 record date). It is generally capital gains distributions that reflect selling. I leave it to others to judge whether these were big, small, normal or unusual.
  • Top 10 Noteworthy ETF Trends Of 2011
    best bet for 2012
    http://www.onwallstreet.com/ows_issues/2011_12/best-bets-for-2012-2676014-1.html?ET=onwallstreet:e5236:2131761a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OWS_Daily__122711
    yes you guessed it - EM, energy, tech could be major players
    rbc wealth financial weekly commentary
    Market Week: December 27, 2011
    The Markets
    In-the-black Friday: Buoyed by good economic data and congressional reconciliation over extension of the payroll tax cut, the Standard & Poor's 500 headed into the Christmas weekend with a gift for investors--its return to positive territory for the year. That left only four trading days in 2011 for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 to try to catch up as the Dow continued to dominate 2011. The Nasdaq was only 1.3% away from breaking even for the year, but the Russell 2000 was still almost 5% from doing the same. And despite a relatively benign week, the Global Dow would need to gain more than twice as much in four days as it did during the entire first quarter to have a positive year.
    Market/Index 2010 Close Prior Week As of 12/23 Week Change YTD Change
    DJIA 11577.51 11866.39 12294.00 3.60% 6.19%
    Nasdaq 2652.87 2555.33 2618.64 2.48% -1.29%
    S&P 500 1257.64 1219.66 1265.33 3.74% .61%
    Russell 2000 783.65 722.05 747.98 3.59% -4.55%
    Global Dow 2087.44 1751.60 1803.20 2.95% -13.62%
    Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
    10-year Treasuries 3.30% 1.86% 2.03% 17 bps 127 bps
    Last Week's Headlines
    Housing starts shot up 9.3% in November, driven largely by construction of multifamily units, while building permits (an indicator of future construction) were up 5.7%. The Commerce Department said that housing starts were up 24.3% compared to last November.
    The U.S. economy grew more slowly during the third quarter than previously estimated by the Commerce Department. The final 1.8% growth rate represented a downward revision from the 2.5% and 2% of the first two estimates, but was still higher than Q2's 1.3%. Corporate profits rose at a slower pace than in Q2; they were up $32.5 billion compared to $61.2 billion in the second quarter, while after-tax profits were up $41.6 billion.
    New home sales rose 1.6% in November; that's 9.8% ahead of the same time last year, according to the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors® said home resales were up 4%, which put them 12.2% above last November.
    There were reassuring signs out of Europe as a successful auction of short-term Spanish sovereign debt cut the yield on three- and six-month bills by more than half. Also, the European Central Bank allowed 523 European banks to borrow a total of €489 billion in three-year loans to refinance debt.
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 43 states had lower unemployment rates in November, while three states (Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado) saw unemployment rise and four others remained the same. The West continued to have the highest regional unemployment rate (9.9%) while the Northeast had the lowest (7.9%).
    American incomes were up 0.1% in November, according to the Commerce Department. However, the extra money promptly went out the door, as consumer spending also was up 0.1%.
    The Federal Reserve Board proposed new regulations designed to help prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. The rules, which would apply to banks with more than $50 billion in assets and other systemically important financial companies, would require annual stress tests, prevent the largest banks from investing more than 10% of their capital in another systemically important bank, limit debt-to-equity ratios and credit exposure to a single company, and increase capital requirements in some cases.
    The Supreme Court set a three-day session March 26-28 to hear arguments in the 26-state legal challenge to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the health-care reform legislation passed in 2010).
    The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators was up 0.5% in November. Seven of the index's ten indicators showed improvement, led by interest rate spreads and housing permits.
    Durable goods orders were up 3.8% in November. However, the Commerce Department said if orders for defense and transportation-related equipment such as aircraft parts are excluded, orders actually fell 1.2%.
    Congress gave taxpayers at least a temporary reprieve from higher taxes by approving a two-month extension of a payroll tax cut that had been scheduled to expire January 1.
    Eye on the Week Ahead
    The holiday-shortened week is the last opportunity for institutional investors to window-dress their portfolios before leaving a tumultuous year behind.
    Key dates and data releases: home prices, consumer confidence (12/27); pending home sales (12/29).
  • TAX TIME
    Your accountant (and I) were oversimplifying a bit. In years when you recognize short term gains, it may matter whether the losses you recognize from some of your investments are short term or long term.
    Short term losses can offset the short term gains (which as you note are taxed at a higher rate, so this saves you more money). Long term losses would only be used to offset the long term gains. So there can be a difference between long term and short term losses, as far as taxes are concerned. (Again, this all assumes you have both long term and short term gains that year.)
    For example:
    Security 1: sold for $2K short term gain
    Fund 2: distributes $2K capital (long term) gains
    Fund 3: sold for $3K short term loss
    The $3K loss is applied first to the short term gain (wiping it out); the remaining $1K in losses is applied to offsetting the $2K long term gain. That leaves a $1K long term gain. At 15% tax, your tax is $150.
    If, on the other hand, Fund 3 were sold for a $3K long term loss, then that loss would be applied first to the long term gain (wiping it out); the remaining $1K in losses is applied to offsetting the $2K short term gain. That leaves a $1K short term gain. At 25%, your tax is $250.
    So there can be a difference between a short term loss and a long term loss.
    Please keep in mind that it is quite likely some of your other funds have (or will have) capital gains distributions (like Fund 2 above), even if they lost money this year. Your losses on the sales you're proposing would go first to reduce those gains, and only if there were any excess losses remaining, would they be applied against ordinary income (up to $3K in losses).
  • TAX TIME
    Thanks for the comment msf. I phoned my accountant, and apparently there isn't any difference between short and long term losses, as far as taxes are concerned. (Short and long term gains are another story as all of you well know.) One is allowed to declare up to $3000 in losses each year. So as Rono suggested I will sell these funds and buy similar funds right away. The loss is just around $3000 so it should work out.
  • ETF Equivalant of DBLTX in terms of yield and holdings?
    I don't give a rat's _ss about his privare life. What I do care about is his overall performance of DBLTX. I will stick with DBLTX in my non-retirement account and keep DFLNX in my Roth. Even with the market's volitility, DBLTX has maintained a more or less steady NAV. I would certainly buy DBLTX for its dividend yield, not for its potential capital appreciation.
  • Schwab NL/NTF Roth Portfolio
    PART 2
    Screening criterion for funds:
    1. No-load, ER less than or equal to category average, been in existence for at least 5 years.
    2. No losses in 3, 5 or 10 yr (if available) rolling periods (amazing how many asset classes or funds drop out here)
    3. Manager has been around for at least the category average
    4. Minimum initial purchase not more than $3000 (i.e., minimum not more than $60k portfolio)
    5. Best 3 month performance must be better than worst 3 month performance over its lifetime (amazing how many funds you lose with this criterion)
    6. Best volatility-adjusted performance (3-yr and 5-yr) in class, not necessarily the best returns.
    7. Volatility of each fund on its own must not exceed 10% of total stock market index, total bond index or balanced index as appropriate.
    8. Lowest volatility to break a tie all else remaining the same.
    9. No bias towards active or passive funds as long as the above criterion are satisfied
    10. Allocation percentages based entirely on relative volatility-adjusted returns (3-yr and 5-yr), no ad hoc allocation decisions. Individual fund notes:
    FVALX, INTLX: These Forester funds have demonstrated the ability to limit losses by going to cash when conditions so indicate and they do so without worrying about whether they will fully participate in the recovery. Hence they fit the goals of this portfolio well. Forester was so successful with this simple strategy that FVALX became the only equity fund to have positive (albeit close to zero) returns in 2008.
    Unfortunately, this brings in people who look at the rankings, see this fund at the top in 2008 and invest and get disappointed when the fund lags in a bull market.
    This fund is chosen for the very strategy (that was incidentally vindicated in 2008) with the full knowledge that it will not necessarily be anywhere near the top in bull markets or even beat the index.
    Alternative to FVALX is Amana Income AMANX which does not provide as much downside protection but has done well using a very conservative approach in value investing and keeping the volatility low but it will be slightly more volatile than FVALX. Another slightly higher volatile alternative is Yacktman fund (YACKX)
    Alternative to INTLX is Sextant International SSIFX (coincidentally managed by the manager of AMANX) for similar reasons.
    AMAGX: A very well managed Large Cap growth fund with a long history of good performance. The downside protection is also reasonable within its class even though there does not appear to be any capital protection strategies in place.
    QRSVX: Not a well known fund but is one of the very few funds that is widely available without a transaction fee, has at least a 5 year history and has managed to limit downside in the bear market in the small cap category. The volatility is also kept low.
    A better known substitute is Royce Special Equity (RYSEX) if available without a transaction fee. Newer Intrepid Small Cap (ICMAX) has done very well although its short history may be a concern as well as Pinnacle Value (PVFIX) if available without a transaction fee. Both ICMAX and PVFIX are low volatility funds and have capital protection as a goal of the fund to fit the goals of this portfolio well.
    MAPIX: The only selection without a 5 year history but comes with a very strong pedigree from Matthews Asia that specializes in Asian funds. This fund has extremely low volatility, even lower than most domestic equities and has managed to deliver very good total returns with a combination of stocks, convertibles and preferred shares.
    Alternatives would be either Matthews Asia Pacific (MPACX) at higher volatility with good downside protection or Matthews Asian Growth and Income (MACSX) at lower volatility but can potentially lose more money in bear markets.
    BPLEX: An alternative investment fund that tries to get good returns in both bull and bear markets. A long-short fund that can be mistaken for another performance chasing choice because of its recent performance. But this would be a good choice even if its performance in 2009 was just average or even below average.
    Looking under the hood shows this fund to be quite different from other long-short funds that try to use both long and short depending on the stock valuations. This fund seems to switch between a primarily long fund (but with short positions to hedge) with good stock selection or a primarily short fund (with long positions to hedge) depending on the macro market conditions thus minimizing individual stock market timing risks.
    This is not different in strategy from Forester's philosophy except that its uses shorting rather than just go to cash and uses small caps rather than large caps.
    So it does very well in longer bear or bull market years and lags during transitions but without losing much money. Unfortunately, none of the alternatives for this fund come anywhere close to it in performance as they primarily seem to depend on picking the right stocks to go long or short across all conditions rather than acting like a good long fund or a good hedged fund depending on macro conditions. It is a unique standout.
    ARBFX: Another alternative investment fund which depends on arbitraging mergers and acquisitions by buying a company that is being acquired and often shorting the company acquiring. The risks for such funds come only if the M&A does not go through. The earlier you get on as soon as an M&A is announced, the riskier. This fund takes very little risks by waiting to get on and arbitraging just the last few months before an M&A. This keeps the volatility very low and the gains low as well.
    An alternative is the similar Merger fund (MERFX) which has a disadvantage because of its size and so may not be able to move quickly in and out.
    HSTRX: Hussman's conservative allocation fund is managed in a risk-managed fashion where the portfolio is continually and pro-actively positioned to address the current risk evaluation of the market. Unlike his strategic growth fund, this fund does not take any significant bets on equities and so any incorrect decisions in his strategy does not have as much of a downside impact unlike the other fund. This has allowed HSTRX to show very consistent and impressive performance over a long period of time with very little volatility.
    MGIDX: Intermediate duration mortgage securities fund that manages to keep volatility low with good performance and uses shorting/options to achieve this. The ability to short or use options will make this fund able to provide downside protection and manage credit and interest risks, a good idea when mortgage rates are likely to rise in the future.
    Alternative is PTMDX - PIMCO Mortgage-Backed Securities D which shorts even more aggressively.
    PGNDX: A GNMA fund that manages risk via shorting while preserving the upside of a GNMA fund. Good due to the same reasons as MGIDX above.
    Alternatives are non-shorting GNMA funds such as USGNX from USAA, VFIIX from Vanguard or BGNMX from American Century which may have more losses if the mortgage rates were to rise rapidly.
    PTTDX: An intermediate investment grade fund that also manages risk via shorting and useful in an expected interest rate rising environment in the future. Low volatility.
    Alternatives are non-shorting funds with low volatility THOPX Thompson Plumb Bond or CPTNX American Century Government Bond Inv WEFIX: A fund with the ability to move between short and intermediate durations based on market conditions and hence able to take advantage of the conditions better than a strictly short term fund. Does not use shorting.
    Alternatives are USSBX from USAA, WEFIX Weitz Short-Intermediate Income, VFISX Vanguard Short-Term Treasury, PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration D. The last one from PIMCO does use shorting.
  • Schwab NL/NTF Roth Portfolio
    Howdy glampig/Mark,
    This is "Fundmentals" MakeMore/LoseLess MMLL write from Nov/Dec 2009:
    Two parts are required, as the text body exceeds the limits of this web site.
    Regards,
    Catch
    PART 1
    Posted by: Fundmentals
    Date: November/December 2009
    Subject line: Model portfolio design

    Body of post:
    I am sure many of you have come across the situation of a friend or a family member clueless about investing ask you to help them with a stash of money. The real-life requirements are usually "simple":
    1. "Want your help to make some money. I can lose money all by myself"
    2. "I can put it in the market for 5 years. Can leave it there longer if it is making money but not if it is losing money"
    3. "Don't ask me to do anything more than once a year"
    The following portfolio is designed specifically for people that are not
    (a)expecting to beat the market
    (b)don't want the portfolio to go down much (likely to panic and sell at the bottom if they went down 10% or more)
    (c) would like some decent gains - more than what they can get with money market funds, CDs or even just bond funds without which they will not take the risk of investing at all and
    (d) don't want to fiddle with it more than once a year.
    The Portfolio
    Domestic Equity:
    5% Forester Value (FVALX) - Large Value
    5% Amana Trust Growth (AMAGX) - Large Growth
    5% Queens Road Small Cap Value (QRSVX) - Small Value
    International/Global equity:
    10% Forester Discovery (INTLX) - World Allocation
    10% Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX) - Diversified Asia/Pacific
    Alternate investments:
    10% Robeco Long/Short Eq Inv (BPLEX) - Long/short equity
    10% Arbitrage Fund (ARBFX) - Merger/arbitrage
    15% Hussman Total Return (HSTRX) - Conservative allocation
    Bonds
    7.5% Managers Intermediate Govt (MGIDX) - Mortgage securities/Govt
    7.5% PIMCO Total Return D (PTTDX) - Intermediate Investment Grade Bond
    7.5% Weitz Short-Interm Income (WEFIX) - Short-Intermediate Term Investment Grade Bond
    7.5% PIMCO GNMA D (PGNDX) - GNMA
    Backtested performance
    If portfolio invested on 1/1/2008, results as of 11/13/2009:
    Total return: +15.05%;
    2008 Performance: -4.79%
    2009 YTD: 20.84%
    Portfolio X-Ray:
    Stocks 52.3%; Bonds 38.1%; Cash 9.6%
    Stocks US 56.00%; International 44.00%
    US equities
    Large cap 27.4%; Mid cap 22.8%; Small Cap 49.8%
    US equities
    Value 36.9%; Blend 53.0%; Growth 10.1%
    International equities
    Europe 24.1%; Pacific 38.5%; Canada 18.9%; Emerging Markets 18.5%
    Bonds
    Taxable 78.70%; Uncategorized 21.30%
    Credit quality High 78.7%; Uncategorized 21.30%
    Duration Medium 20.2% Low 58.5% Uncategorized 21.3%
    Costs: Portfolio average 1.72%
    Portfolio construction notes:
    The portfolio is constructed to solve a basic flaw in traditional portfolio construction. Diversification using high volatility equity funds (even index funds with market volatility) results in deep losses during bear markets as most such equities become correlated and go down together.
    Just depending on bond allocation to reduce losses requires primarily allocation to Treasuries as it is the only type of asset that can be depended on to show negative correlation with equities in bear markets. But unlike in the past, Treasuries starting with the current situation of low interest rates cannot be expected to provide much gains going forward so the portfolio may turn out to be too conservative or too aggressive based on what happens in the market regardless of how much is allocated to Treasuries.
    As a solution, portfolio picks only funds designed with a strategy to reduce/minimize losses during long bear markets and has some capital protection goals in place. The overall volatility is reduced by depending on each fund to reduce its own volatility rather than depend on lack of correlation to reduce the volatility.
    Note that this is not the same thing as picking funds with the highest returns in either bear or bull markets or both. Nor are the returns attributable to some fantastic market timing in picking which stocks to buy and when to sell.
    In fact, most of these funds will likely not consistently appear in the top 10% of their class except occasionally. But all of them will have shown the ability to limit losses by reacting to long-drawn down market conditions and make decent gains in long-drawn up market conditions.
    In other words, the only market timing they will show will be in recognizing long bear markets as in recognizing the difference between 2008 and 2009, not what happens month to month. None of them try to time tops and bottoms.
    Methodology
    Portfolio Requirements:
    1. Capital protection and lack of volatility extremely important. No long periods of losses. No "wait for 10-20 years or more" excuse for losses.
    2. Asymmetric behavior - as much of the upside as possible, as little of the downside as possible
    3. Simple portfolio with high quality no-load funds widely available in the main brokerages
    4. Only annual tune-ups
    5. Total return more important than income
    6. No assumption of bull/bear markets for the portfolio as a whole, no forecasted assumptions of economy or any other indicators, doom/gloom predictions, etc.
    Concrete requirements:
    1. Not more than 12 funds.
    2. No single fund with less than 5% allocation or more than 15% allocation
    3. Portfolio must be diversified but not necessary to cover all asset/fund classes. Only asset classes that have shown consistent returns without long loss periods and small drawdowns. Riskier assets only within risk-managed funds.
    4. No assumptions of correlation or lack of correlation between asset classes going forward but no gross overlaps between funds. Some overlap is fine.
  • TAX TIME
    There can be tax advantages and also tax disadvantages, depending upon your particular situation and what you expect of tax rates in the future. And that doesn't even touch the (timing) risk you are taking by going to cash for 30 days. Market could go up (it often does Dec/Jan), or it could go down while you're on the sidelines.
    As to tax implications - it appears it would be a short term loss. (There is an obscure rule about fund shares held less than six months that can turn short term losses into long term losses; that doesn't apply here as you've held the shares more than six months, but under a year.)
    The best situation would be if you had short term gains that this short term loss would offset. Short term gains are taxed as ordinary income, so offsetting them has the most value.
    If you don't have short term gains to offset, then these losses could be used to offset long term gains. That's not as valuable, because long term gains are taxed at a much lower rate (15% or less). If you expect long term gain tax rates to go up (say, to 20%), and you'll be selling in a few years, it might make sense to retain the higher cost basis (by not selling), and take a smaller gain in the future (so you'd be saving yourself 20% in the future, vs. saving yourself 15% now). Depends on your crystal ball.
    If you don't have any capital gains to offset (neither long nor short), then up to $3,000 of losses can be used to offset ordinary income. In this situation, short term loss is used toward that $3,000 max; if that's less than $3,000, long term losses are also used toward that $3,000 max. In this situation, you're not getting any special benefit from the losses being short term, because long term losses could just as easily be used to offset the $3K of ordinary income.
    Here are a few quick examples:
    Ordinary income: $80K
    Short term losses: $5K
    Long term gain: $7K
    In this situation, the short term losses are applied to the long term gains, leaving you with a net $2K in long term gain, plus the full $80K in ordinary income to be taxed.
    ---
    Ordinary income: $80K
    Short term losses: $5K
    Long term gain: $1K
    In this situation, the first $1K of short term losses is applied against the long term gain (leaving you no net long term gain to be taxed); the next $3K of short term gain is used to offset the ordinary income (leaving you $77K of ordinary income to be taxed). The final $1K of short term losses is carried over to next year's tax return.
    ---
    Ordinary income: $80K
    Short term losses: $5K
    Long term losses: $3K
    In this situation, the first $3K of short term losses is used to offset the ordinary income (leaving you $77K of ordinary income to be taxed). The remaining $2K of short term losses are carried over to next year, as are the $3K in long term losses.
    ---
    Ordinary income: $80K
    Short term losses: $1K
    Long term losses $6K
    In this situation, first the short term losses are used to offset the ordinary income. Since that's under $3K of losses, you can use another $2K (for a total of $3K) from long term losses to offset the ordinary income. That leaves you with $77K of ordinary income, no short term losses, and $4K of long term losses carried over to next year's return.
    ---
    Ordinary income: $80K
    Short term losses: $1K
    Long term losses: $1K
    In this situation, all the losses combined are less than $3K, so they're all used to offset the ordinary income. That brings the ordinary income down to $78K, and there are no losses left for next year.