exactly. from seekingalpha.com:
The Asset Allocation Lie starts like this, "Studies have shown that over the long-term it is not your individual investments that determine your investment results, but your investment allocation." Now let's step back and think on this for a second. Warren Buffet is generally considered the greatest investor ever. In one sentence, every Financial Advisor has just belittled and indeed, insulted his life work. They have not only insulted his investment decisions and results of the past six decades, but also his lifelong desire to teach the public at large about how to invest appropriately. This insult continues on to his shareholders who invested in his company on the belief that they might reap excess investment rewards in the future. Every Hedge Fund Manager, every Portfolio Manager, that has utilized proper stock selection, like Mr. Buffet, as their investment strategy and has achieved success with that investment strategy is being insulted. Every one of their investors, who invested with them in the belief that they could utilize proper stock selection as an investment strategy, is also being insulted. And there is one final person who is also insulted by this entirely false concept, and that is: everyone else, literally. Every individual investor who has not invested with or even heard of Warren Buffet is being insulted by almost every financial firm and advisor in the industry since these strategies, enacted by the successful investment managers, are not being presented as options to the public at large. This is the Lie.
Then there is the Deception. The Deception uses the Lie to get you, the unknowing individual, to trust the Financial Advisor (or more accurately described, the Salesperson) and utilize their services as well as their firm. Because as long as you don't know about the other, more effective investment strategies of elite investment managers, you'll turn your money over to idiots. The idiots are active investment managers who are incapable of beating relevant benchmarks over a reasonably significant period of time.
Finally, there is the Steal. The firm and the advisor charge what seems to be a "low fee" in relation to historical returns, but is in fact a very high fee for the actual services they perform for the client. This "low fee" grows over time as you save and invest more capital and have some positive investment returns. As the "low fee" grows, the compensation to the firm and advisor grows while they continue to do effectively nothing. This is the second part of the joke in action, "But if you steal a little bit of money, from a large segment of people over an extended period of time, you get rich." Who gets rich? Not the client, but the firm and the advisor.
Why David Herro is Betting Big on Europe Reply to
@MikeM: But getting into some of the US bank stocks in 2009 is not the same as getting into Spanish banks now. While US bank stocks throughout 2009-2010 still suffered from airing out the dirty laundry - the worst of the worst had passed from an economic perspective and bailouts already issued.
Spain is in the process of getting worse and worse economically and at the beginning stages of some needed bailout money.
For the US banks - let's see how things play out 5 years from now.
Remember - we've heard on Fox Business News and all the
capitalists about government interference and contraining the bank's potential for earnings BUT the Canadian banks have chugged along in a more stricter regulatory environment and have held safer/higher
capital ratios yet have absolutely wonderful 10-year returns!
TD Bank: 15.34%
Royal Bank of Canada: 13.59%
Bank of Nova Scotia: 14.34%
Strong, well-run banks with dividend growth can do well.
I'm not saying now is the time to jump into Spanish Banks as I would let the volatile environment play out longer but eventually averaging into a top-notch Spanish bank could be a decent *long-term* play.
Do you know what the worst asset class was in 2000?
==> Emerging Markets! Were they in good shape? No, they're considered EM because their markets were not mature, riddled with debt, have to borrow from IMF and where we had witnessed major fallouts from the Asian contagion, Russian default and Argentina collapse right before our eyes. And we heard many investors say that they wouldn't touch EM with a 10-foot pole.
Fast forward 10-12 years later and what has happened to what was the worst & scariest asset class? In fact, in 1999 - probably the worst Tech Stock was probably Apple.
Why do you think John Templeton jumped into Japanese stocks in the 60's and 70's after being beaten to a pulp that no American would come near a Japanese stock --- and he made an absolute killing for over a decade. No, not in 6 months, 1 year or 2 years time.
One Bond Fund to own Howdy,
The below current holdings for the funds indicated, clickable specific links are within each fund ticker type.
Loomis Sayles MultiSector Bond fundsWe recently sold our position in TEGBX due to market reactions (downside) that began to set a similar pattern to the downside in 2011. Perhaps this fund will rotate to the more positive side for the remainder of the year; but our house remains perplexed by the total absence of U.S. Treasury holdings in a fund named Global Bond.
As to a bond mix; we have sprinkles everywhere, and will continue to diversify the diversification among holdings and management styles/choices, as every management group will not "get it right" all of the time:
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid
Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
Regards,
Catch
Fuss and Hasenstab M* interview on the future of income investing. Wondering...........
The fund name should be Templeton Global ex-U.S. bond fund.
Mr. Hasenstab notes from the article:
Hasenstab- "Whether it's credit risk or whether it's currency risk, there's no way to get returns without taking some degree of risk..."
And this statement is what has kept him away from U.S. Treasury issues? It also has affected the portfolio performance for a few years, too. I am sure he no longer looks at capital appreciation from the 7-30 year Treasury issues; and I am also sure he could care less about what I think.
Oh, well; I sure can't argue against his thinking in the same light; as he has forgotton more knowledge about the bond sector; than I have ever known in my life, during the time it took me to write this statement.
I wish both of us well, going forward with our bond sector choices..........
And for all who would like a real ringer of a time in the bond world; purchase the Spanish and/or Italian 10 yr issues. The yields may be close to the top edge.
May be some easy money sitting with these; if one can stay ahead of JPMorgan or GS or.
FEHAX or FEBAX Howdy,
1. Do you already have other bond funds that are similar to these in mix or sectors?
2. FEBAX is just newborn, May, 2012. I personally would need more time to find how management steers through the current debt markets which contain some big waves here and there.
3. Do you have access to other bond funds that do not carry a 4.5% front load? Such a load would find similar HY funds at a break even point at this point of the year; in other words, the load would have killed all HY bond gains YTD, and one would just now start to make money if the HY sector continues to move forward at its current annual pace.
Regards,
Catch
Illusive Performance Persistence I suppose the hedge fund issue comes down to the fact that there are many failed funds (and/or managers who can't make it back to the high mark, therefore close up shop and start over again somewhere else.) When investing in hedge funds, you are investing in a fund with a much larger toolbox and greater flexibility (in many cases) than what a mutual fund can offer. However, it depends on whether or not the manager can use those tools and that flexibility effectively. You are also, in many cases, paying 2 and 20. There are some, however, who have pretty consistently knocked out gains, such as David Einhorn and Dan Loeb. There are others I'm not thinking of, but those two - while they have made mistakes - have put together impressive longer-term track records.
Look at Paulson, who made one of the most successful bets of all time, then has had an awful couple of years since. Paulson didn't get stupid, but maybe after making one of the most successful bets in Wall Street history, investors in the funds - if given the opportunity - maybe should have seen the opportunity to take profits.
The issue with computer-driven trading is that you have hedge funds now literally trying to find prices of wheat in Babylon in order to get that edge over their competition. Hiring weathermen, physicists, etc. I don't think that many of these funds can't keep doing well, but when you are sending researchers to the ends of the Earth to find esoteric data, what's "the next step" when needed to get the edge again, when needed?
"Keynes equated the stock market to a casino or a game of chance, completely unpredictable. "
I've started to agree more with what Mark Cuban said recently, essentially comparing stocks that don't pay dividends to baseball cards.
"More recently, Morningstar reinforces that same poor timing observation with their own analysis that reveals that individual investors are often late when buying top-ranked fund performers. "
When Cramer went on Regis and Kelly and proclaimed CGM Focus to be his favorite fund, I thought that was it for that (and I thought it was rather interesting to sell the most volatile fund on the planet to that audience, but whatever.) Sure enough that was about it.
Why Stay In Mutual Funds After May Sell-Off ? Dear John: In my capital preservation portfolio, I have about 5% in cash, in my capital appreciation portfolio I have none.
Ted
Trigger points, Long-Short funds (D-I-Y), what are you thinking??? Hi Catch,
I have some comments that I will make and in making them perhaps it will provide some insight into my thinking and my practice that will provide some answers to the questions you raise without a direct response to any of them.
First, I believe every investor needs to establish their tolerance for risk along with setting some goals they wish to achieve through investing. Their portfolio needs to be tailored along these lines. For me, I am willing to invest in assets of the moderate risk type that offer income generation stream and also provide for the opportunity of some capital appreciation over time knowing in some periods there may be some negative appreciation along the way (decline in price).
Second, I believe what one pays for securities has a great deal of bearing in making money. Indeed price is important. I follow the practice I learned from my late father. When equities are towards their 52 week low most likely they have become over sold from fear and good buying opportunities can be found. Dad had a strong will and would not buy unless he felt he was receiving good value and his portfolio was built over time … not over just over a few years. He would not chase an up trending market. If he had not already positioned for an anticipated rebound he sat it out. To him, this was investing spreading his activity out over years. In trading there is the desire and rush to get rich quickly. I read about too many folks trying to trade their way to success. I do not know of any of my friends that have found success through day trading. And, one of them was a very smart person, a nuclear engineer by profession that felt he was bigger than the market through way of his intelligence. Lost most of his 401k money and with that committed suicide. So, the bottom line, don’t over pay for what you buy and buy it with some conviction. I invest mostly for total return … Investments that offer some capital appreciation and pay dividends. An important feature I like to see in a company is that it has a history of raising these dividends to their investors as they grow profit. This is not to say that I don’t have some fixed income as I do and I believe there is a place for it in every portfolio.
Third, I believe a good investor can recognize a market top. A simplified way to do this is once equities are approaching their 52 week highs perhaps they have become over bought from investor enthusiasm. I have observed many of my family members only buy when they feel equities are on a good upward roll and become mystified when they discover they have over paid now that the market has begun its decent. Actually, I use to use my aunt as a sell indicator. When she started to buy, I started to sell because she usually committed her money after equities had had a good strong run and from my thoughts they had become overbought.
Forth, I believe all investors should keep some dry powder, cash, to seize upon opportunity.
Fifth, I believe one should not invest one’s cash reserves held for emergency. They should be held away from your portfolio and not comingled with other cash assets within it. Once you have built an emergency fund … and, only then, should one consider investing. After all, investing entails certain risk. It offers the opportunity for gain as well as the opportunity for loss. And, most of all, I believe one should govern and invest accordingly and within their abilities.
This is how we do it in this house hold. And, in stating the above, I am not saying this is by any means the right way for all.
I wish all … whatever your investing style and skill might be … “Good Investing.”
Skeeter
Trigger points, Long-Short funds (D-I-Y), what are you thinking??? Sunday morning coffee break,
What's your trigger point(s)?
--- Are you using fundamental or techinical analyis, or a combination? Are the fundamentals without merit; at least at a company level, and that the global (central banks and debt) the real place to view what may be fundamental to your investments? A few have noted here, that their market trigger points came to view in the month of April; and a review of charts indicates a most correct call. Congratulations.
How are you guaging the markets?
--- Take no prisoners. While past sideways markets may have provided some shelter in domestic equity havens of broad healthcare, consumer staples and utility area investments; a take no prisoners equity market puke doesn't really care about these sectors, eh?
What's your breaking point?
--- How far does one ride a sector or broad market move? This question is not just inclinced to a sell function; but also to a buy function, any given sectors.
D-I-Y long/short fund house.
--- Without actually investing in an active long/short fund; many investors are operating their own long/short portfolio based upon their mix. Not unlike a long/short fund; the balance may tilt too far one way or the other. L/S funds do have the obvious advantage of using all of the tools (put/call options and the full tool box) to modify in a short time period to where they think a market sector(s) may be headed. For individuals, a most simple plan of a 50/50 split between VTI and BND (or one's favorites in these areas) could do the trick.
Our current portfolio has become ballasted more and more towards IG bonds; not that we have not had some of this ballast in place for the past 3 years. Whether or not anyone who reviews the Funds Boat is in agreement to our portfolio mix is not the point of the posting; only to the fact of another portfolio view for consideration, and that we place our monies where our mouth is.....
As is always noted (especially for new visitors to this site); is that our position is directed towards capital preservation first, and to hopefully trickle growth into the mix; regardless of how or where from, the growth arrives. However, captial preservation must also be a priority for the beginner, too; and regardless of the age for those who have been investing for any number of years and find retirement to be a few decades away. The value of capital preservation is the ability to compound the positive, regardless of how small the return; into continued growth going forward.
What is your plan with your portfolio during this twitchy investing period? Is this period just a re-do of 2010 and 2011, or otherwise? Or do you feel this is just a blip to ride out and the problems will be resolved in a timely manner to your satisfaction and have no long term impact upon your portfolio?
Okay, out of coffee.
A few simplified questions posted for this house and yours; but requiring more complex answers. Not really a totally fair mix between a simple question requiring a complex answer; but some of the questions we all attempt to answer for ourselves. I don't recall any quotes about investing being a simple task.
Be careful out there in investment land and take care of you and yours.
Catch
The Real Bond King Says "Buy" Howdy Kaspa,
Your money is in a good place; as you should have been able to keep your equity gains from last fall and now compounding upon that. The ultimate plan, eh?
One may suppose some magical event taking place and the financial troubles will be healed and gone. NOT!
If we find a bit more twitch in the system on Monday, will would likely further offload the more sensitive bonds.....HY, EM and do a trim job on LSBDX. Hopefully, some of the remaining diversified bond funds will maintain.
'Course I know there are those who are awaiting bond holders to get their clock's cleaned. Your BOND holding at least allows you to head for the hills within a few minutes of trading.
Good work for paying attention to the items you monitor.
Regards,
Catch
Vanguard Municipal-Bond Funds Try to Up Their Game I hold USTEX (USAA Tax Exempt LT Muni) which has shown
capital appreciation along with its 4.21% yield (1 yr total return of 13.82%). Higher interest rates are coming but, in the meantime; not a bad place to park some tax free cash.
Related Article:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45477912?__source=yahoo
The Real Bond King Says "Buy" Reply to
@ron:
Hi ron,
As mentioned, LT Teasuries have been and will continue to be an insurance policy for equities. If you agree with that perspective they are still providing this dynamic for an investor who includes them. One of my reallocation strategies has been to take equity profits and use them to buy LT treasuries and other alternative investments to equities. I diversify my profits.
There may come a point where these holdings (LT Treasuries and the like) show outsized
gains or move out of favor. I own BTTRX (American Century Zero Coupon 2025) as well as USAGX. I try to pair these two investments as insurance a
gainst each other.
Gains in one get reallocated to the other. This smooths the ride as well as keeps me invested in both. Here's a chart of the two together:

Mutual Fund Research Newsletter, June 2012 edition ... What Happened to the U. S. Bull Market? Thanks, Skeeter; for the article.
The article writer noted:
"Therefore, while the crystal ball remains cloudy, with possible thunderstorms on the horizon, we think that yield-starved investors will likely resume, once the current near-panic rush to safety subsides, gradually gravitating toward those investments that offer at least the possibility of inflation-beating
gains vs. the near zero after-inflation yields likely on most non-stock investments.">>>>> Non-stock investments, meaning bonds, eh? Yields low = yes, current price appreciation = yes
We all need reminders and reference points in our multi-faceted investment world. Link from Ted's post.
"Print and read aloud 3 times, then hang onto the wall"Regards,
Catch