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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 3 reasons to ride the silver bull [ping rono & commodities bugs]
    In terms of the NCV fund that Rono mentions, that manager does manage a few mutual funds, such as AGIC Growth and Income (AZNDX), which I think is a unique and little known fund that has put together a good track record so far. Not saying the mutual fund is a better choice, but saying that the manager has demonstrated skills with a number of funds. The closed end fund Rono mentions definitely offers a higher yield than the mutual funds.
    BIP/Brookfield Infrastructure one of the spin-offs from giant parent company Brookfield Asset Management, which does hold a stake in the company. I just think it's a neat mix of diversified global real assets, pays a nice dividend and I like Brookfield management.
    I have a couple of little water rights investments as part of other things (RIT Capital Partners has Summit Water Development/United States/Water Rights/0.9% - a water rights fund), but it's really unfortunate that more alternative asset classes (such as water rights and private equity, among other things) are not available in the US market to the retail investor.
  • Amana - Disturbing Information (note from David at the end)
    According to Morningstar, Saturna Capital out of Washington State manage this fund. The managers are Nicholas Kaiser (since 1990) and Monem Salam (since 2008).
  • 3 reasons to ride the silver bull [ping rono & commodities bugs]
    Hi John,
    I'm not sure there is a reasonable level, per se, to start buying silver - or to stop buying silver. It's all about you and your portfolio and your goals and objectives.
    I sold some (25%) of my paper holdings earlier this week and some more (50%) today. However, I'm looking to add to the physical side at these 'sale' prices and this bespeaks my continued long term bullishness for both gold and silver (and all 'real stuff' that holds its value).
    John, I'm a momentum investor and as such have to have an exit strategy for any play I make. Otherwise, I risk giving all my gains back when the trend reverses - and ALL trends reverse. With this particular trend - gold and silver - I was able to spot it early on and climb on board sooner than most (I played the Hunt Bros. bull back in the late 70's and used my silver profits to subsidize my GI Bill while finishing my degree.) I was buying gold at 335 and silver at 4. This has been a very good run and if it's coming to a pause for the nonce . . . so be it. If it's coming to an end . . . so be it.
    I honestly think that silver (and gold) had gone up so far and so fast, it simply had to pause and consolidate. Backing and filling, old Carl used to call it. As the article mentioned, there were several factors at work and with any asset class that has gone parabolic like silver - these happenings are to be expected. I see absolutely no changes to the fundamentals that underpin the bull market in precious metals.
    Now as for your question about where to start buying - IFF you feel you need some specific addition to your holdings, be it silver or pork bellies or shares of GS or DODGX - it's whatever the price is - when it's rising - not when it's falling like right now. Wait until it turns around and starts back up to start buying. At that point, some would advocate using a Dollar Cost Averaging approach. That's OK with your pay day 401 K contribution or other uberlong term investments but not for a speculative play. Accordingly, I modify the basic DCA approach and add the criteria that at each successive buy point, my play must be making money. I only add to winning plays, as it were. I'll buy 25% of my intended play and watch it for some period of time. If it makes me money, I'll buy another 25% . . . and watch it. If it makes me money, I'll buy the remainder. Gary called it 'scaling in'.
    And right at this particular moment, I'm doing the reverse and instead of scaling into an investment, I'm scaling out. It's my exit strategy. In this case, I'm using around a 10% pullback as a trigger point. Call it a mental stop loss, if you will. Note that where I'm paring my play is with SIL, SLV, GDXJ, CEF and SLW. I am holding to PRPFX and commodity related funds. And I'm down to my paper 'core' levels so this is about it.
    Oh, and while I'm at it, I really don't like the stock market right now one damn bit. Do you realize how juiced this sucker is with QE cash?!? If the Fed takes away the punch bowl . . . look out below. That's why I don't see them able to stop the money presses. And as such, gold and silver are still attractive.
    peace,
    rono
  • My Super Charged Bond Funds Portfolio
    Age 65; risk tolerance for bonds - HIGH, $100,000 for AGDYX; $55,000 for MWHYX amd $100,000 for DBLTX. Fidelity managed ROTH and small equity stakes in EXWAX and FAIRX. I reinvest all dividends and capital gains.
  • Our Funds Boat, week/YTD, TIC-TOC, April 30, 2011
    Howdy,
    Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
    For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
    NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the fund. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
    While looking around.....TIC-TOC, neither may this house beat the clock. We all have just those 24 hours, eh? Spring is trying to arrive in MI and that means fix up and/or clean up inside and outside from the perils of winter. We may have 2-3 months of decent weather time, when substracting the ill weather days between now and September. I am already behind on me chores; and have more than enough family and friend functions on the schedule for this summer; of which, we are pleased to have. SO, the Funds Boat report will scale back to a quarterly report; at least at this point of time allowance. We'll just have to see how things, and time move along, at this house. The next scheduled report will be at the end of June, 2011.
    Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
    We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
    Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
    Comments and questions always welcomed.
    Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
    Take care,
    Catch
    SELLs THIS PAST WEEK:
    NONE
    BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
    NONE
    Portfolio Thoughts:

    Our holdings had a +.69% move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. GEE WHIZ....no buys or sells. In the way back days of "don't fight the FED"; I personally felt more comfortable with this statement. TODAY, the statement has the added ? of don't fight the "high freq trading machines". So, while the FED is still stimulating the money machine, this house really should be buying everything in sight that "should" continue to move up in value in equities or where ever the hot may travel. It all makes sense, eh??? Low real interest rates; I mean, what else would a fella ask for. 'Course there is the unemployment rate and a housing market that will likely be stuck in place for a few more years, at the very least. Some states are raising taxes and fees to overcome and to correct a mandatory budget balance. Assured our state folks via email, that every dollar they choose to take from this house will be one that will not be spent in the local economy...pretty much a "who cares". I guess we may just have to go with the flow and hang our monetary butts out onto the "investment clothes line" as far as we dare; and hope a big wind "market correction" does not come along and blow all of the new investment clothes onto the dirty ground. Former President G.W. Bush was the "decider" and Mr. Ben at the FED has created the world of the "riskers". Scott and others at FA mentioned/discussed a year or so ago about the possibility of the DOW going to 30,000, and other indexes moving to similar high turf. I guess all of this is possilbe; as more than ever, we really live in a world of "funny money". Our mish-mash portfolio is really getting its YTD pants beat off by the equity sectors; 'course we also do not stand to get the big face slap either, if and when the "machines" decide to go to the equity sell mode.
    Good investment fortune to all in the coming months.
    The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
    How our boat's cargo is doing:
    Week: = +.69%
    YTD = +4.45%

    And the cargo is:
    CASH = 15%
    Mixed bond funds = 78.4%
    Equity funds = 6.6%
    -Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 18.5%
    -HY/HI bond funds 28.8%
    -Total bond funds 14.6%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 6.6%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    DHOAX Delaware HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest grade
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    TEGBX Templeton Global
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
    FRIRX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
    FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
    FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
    FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
    FDVLX Fidelity Value
    FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
    FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
  • it pays 10% / yr only if you invest before 5/5 ...and several other reads
    Hey John,
    Thanks for the links. I was intrigued by the Ever Bank product. The 5 year example they illustrate on their website got me doing a little math. In their example (which I found here):
    https://www.everbank.com/_documents/_marketsafe/DiversifiedCommodities_2011-05.pdf
    It states that they would apply a 5 year cumulative interest of 27.2% to the initial investment. This would equate to five year CD paying 5%. The 27.2% sounds so much bigger doesn't it? I would worry about volatility in the commodities market offsetting positive gains with negative losses which the investor absorbs. Remember, the bank is always taking the gains over 10% while the investor absorbs any losses. What they don't show clearly are the banks profit totals for any cumulative Net Return over 10% which they receive almost risk free.
    In the first year, the bank's average return is 18.4% verses 4.9% to the investor. Year two, it is an astounding 53% for the bank. Because of one loss (in hogs), just 7.1% for the investor. Year 3, the bank nets 83.5% and the investor a mere 7%. In year four, the investor absorbs 5 down market (less than 10%) netting an average for the year of just 0.6%. But, the bank doesn't take that risk. Their only rewarded with the "winning" five segments which net an average return of 69%. The fifth year, the bank almost doubles their money with an average return of 99.7%. The investor nets an average for year five of 7.6%.
    This 5 year scenario would net the bank a cumulative return of 323.6%. At almost no risk.
    The bank's only risk is to return your initial investment. They can accomplish this very cheaply by buying insurance such as options or other financial wizardry products.
    Short version: Watch out!
  • CEF (Central Fund of Canada) Depreciating?
    looks like many professionals and individuals are shorting gold and especially silver and calling for the market top. I heard SLV is out of shares to short (or too expensive) and they are now moving to CEF (which invests a large chunk in silver). It did loose its historical 8-9% premium and moved to a discount. for those building positions, it's might be a good time to add. I did pay a 5% premium back in May 2010 -- up 65% since though. looking to the end of may to get my long-term cap gains. would re-enter when it drops. volatility is breathtaking - up/down 4-5%. no one should put significant share of their wealth into this thing.
    JR
  • (Re: PRLAX, others...) WHY is Brasil going nowhere fast?
    I was pointing that just because a country is having high growth does not necessarily mean a good stock market performance in the short term. The experience of China, Brazil, India etc. are current evidence.
    On the long term, the research paper says that due to frequent diluted effects of stock offerings even if the country is growing fast, it may not reflect in the per share prices. Over the long term, the returns are more likely to be around that of developed markets.
    So, it is all about timing for stock prices. If you jump in at the correct time by luck or otherwise, you will get good returns. If you jump in at other times you can lose a lot in a short time. People are looking at the returns in last decade and in particular last 5 years and jumping in both feet. They may get disappointed.
    The cheerleaders of emerging markets like to point out to only the positive developments and have a tendency of minimizing the challenges and big issues.
    Corruption, unproductive uses of capital, environmental destruction, limited market depths and crazy expansion of credit, extremely bad distribution of income and high inflation are some of the land mines waiting to explode and the longer this rally goes the higher the risks become. All is not well out there.
  • (Re: PRLAX, others...) WHY is Brasil going nowhere fast?
    Brazil is THE economic engine of Latin America. Its oil reserves and natural resources will help sustain a huge long-term economic growth cycle. Will there be pullbacks from time to time? Of course. Will there be inflation in this kind of growth cycle? Of course. How their government handles these things, along with necessary infrastructure and social spending will help to determine the eventual flow of growth, but it's hard to imagine a no-growth scenario for Brazil. The Olympics will create a huge infrastructure build-out, and rest assurred that Brazil will work to present itself as well as it can to the world on that stage, where billions will be watching.
    I personally have a lot of confidence in Latin America, but I also recognize there will be some bumps along the way. We use ILF as our investment choice, and we have captured some significant gains in the last couple of years, always reminding ourselves not to be greedy. Stay invested, but don't let this sector get too far ahead of itself.
  • ETF's verses Closed end funds
    agree with a lot of your arguments to a point. Yes, it is a poor idea to buy a closed end fund at the IPO. But the dynamic of discounts and premiums could be used, if studied, for better entry and exit points.
    also, one advantage that CEFs have over ETFs and open ended mutual funds is that the manager doesn't have to sell assets during market panic thus taking permanent loss of capital (unless they are excessively leveraged). When people dump cefs in panic (just like in your muni example), they loose their premium or deepen their discount while underlying holdings are intact. Thus, CEFs are great for less liquid asset classes, such as distressed debt, munis, micro caps and emerging and frontier markets.
    again, this is a separate animal, always actively managed, and should be studied before jumping in. i am in no way an expert, but i started picking these up in the fall of 2008 and have since built some understanding.
  • My 401K bond options
    I am trying to save as much as I can in my 401k and really don't know what choices are the best. I have mostly equity funds with 30% T.Rowe Price 2030- RRTCX, 20% MSF Value- MVRRX, 20% Alger Cap Appr-ALARX, 15% Allianz NFJ Sm Cap-PCVAX, and 15% Janus Overseas-JIGRX.
    The only exposure to bonds is in the 2030, so I am going100% to the PTTAX for a few months to build it up to 15%.
    My company 401K is through ADP and ADP pretty much sucks in terms of service but I don't really know if the funds are quality or not. The complete list is:
    I welcome all comments and observations.
    Invesco Stable Asset Fund
    RRTIX- T. Rowe Price Retirement Income R, + 2010-2050
    PTTAX- PIMCO Total Return A
    MVRRX-MFS Value R2
    SVSPX- SSgA S&P 500 Index Instl
    SRVEX- Victory Diversified Stock A
    ALARX- Alger Capital Appreciation Instl I
    FMIVX- Virtus Mid-Cap Value A
    ATHAX- American Century Heritage A
    PCVAX- Allianz NFJ Small Cap Value A
    FSCTX- Fidelity Advisor Small Cap T
    SSCRX- SSgA Small Cap R
    PAIGX- T. Rowe Price Intl Gr & Inc Adv
    JIGRX- Janus Overseas S
  • Templeton Global bonds
    Both Investor and Accipiter posted solid replies. I only suggest that you use the recent 52 week average premium/ discount and also look at a long term history. GIM goes back many years and it is all available on cefconnect.com (nuveen website) or cefa.org. Even M* has recently developed a CEF section. When premium is above historical average, there are bound to be wild swings in the price which have nothing to do with NAV. People who bought at a discount are booking their profits for example... So i do suggest sticking to the average or below average pricing.
    Additionally, when you research a closed end fund, check out leverage and a distribution source. For GIM, there is no leverage, and the 5% distribution has been historically paid purely out of income, complemented by cap gains - no destructive return of capital.
  • Templeton Global bonds
    1) - no different than buy low and sell high. If the discount goes to -5% and stays there forever and you bought at 6%, you deduct 11% right off the bat (from your gains and losses. On the other hand if the premium is 6% and you sell when the premium is 12% - you gained an extra 6%. You just got to see where the premium averages and see what you want to do.
    ---
    look at the variation in price and nav on this chart since inception - quite a bit of difference in premium and discount over the period since inception.
    take a look at the pricing history tab.
    http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/Summary.aspx?ticker=GIM
    ---
    ---
    comparison enter GIM TEGBX and whatever you want.
    http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/etfs/compare/compareResults.asp?
    -
    http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/CEF-Closed-End-Funds.aspx
    http://customer.wcta.net/roberty/ETF.HTM
    http://www.etfguide.com/etftickerguide.php
    http://www.closed-endfunds.com/
    http://guides.wsj.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-invest-in-a-closed-end-fund/
    http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/etfs/compare/compare.asp
  • My 401K bond options
    My 401K bond options are limited. I have Pimco Total Return A PTTAX and six T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds, Income-RRTIX, 2010-RRTAX, 2020-RRTBX, 2030-RRTCX, 2040-RRTDX, 2050-RRTFX.
    I plan to increase the bond percentage of my 401K from less than 5% to about 15%. I currently only have bond exposure through RRTCX.
    Which would you consider the better choice to increase the the percentage of bonds, Pimco, the 2010 or 2020.
    Thanks in advance.
    DPN
  • emergying market equity and bond funds.
    Just wish it were a bit cheaper though. Perhaps will drop in fees over time.
    Lazard also just recently came out with a similar EM stock/bond strategy fund....
    "The Lazard Emerging Markets Multi-Strategy Portfolio (the “Portfolio”) seeks total return from current income and capital appreciation by allocating capital across Lazard’s emerging markets equity and debt strategies utilizing the portfolio management team’s assessment of the changing economic landscape. The allocations to the underlying strategies are changed over time, and at any given point the allocation to one strategy (other than currency investments) may comprise a substantial percentage of the Portfolio’s assets. The Team gauges the global economic environment through quantitative and qualitative analysis, including the use of proprietary software models and internal and external research. By combining equity with debt strategies and periodically readjusting allocations, the Portfolio seeks to avoid the extreme outcomes typically found in emerging markets and, thereby, to create a lower volatility pattern of returns"
    --- But I don't know how good and how deep of an EM Fixed-Income investment team they have as I don't see much history of EM Fixed-Income investing from Lazard unless they do so in Private/Institutitional accounts.
    So investors would have to evaluate the additional costs versus the active-management benefits of getting the hands-free EM stock/bond tactical/strategic balancing done for you.
  • Our Funds Boat, week/YTD, Portfolio, PART 2, 4-23-11
    NOTE: Part 2, The Portfolio
    SELLs THIS PAST WEEK:
    NONE
    BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
    NONE
    Portfolio Thoughts:

    Our holdings had a +.44% move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house.
    JUST a sitt'in and watch'in what the next few weeks may bring. This house does not expect much to change with the FED debt issue and everything else that is going on in the world. BUT, we are curious as to how the big kid traders move forward. I suspect our CASH holding may not be out of line with some fund managers who are also sitt'in and watch'in. Lastly, official QE2 may end; but some other path will be found to "support" the U.S. economy. Mr. Bernank, after all; is a complete student of the Japanese economic situation and the depression of the '30's in America. This house suspects the U.S. economy is still not within Mr. B's comfort zone.
    The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
    How our boat's cargo is doing:
    Week: = +.44%
    YTD = +3.76%
    Reference points, week / YTD:
    SP-500 "SDY" = +.65% / +4.8% (SP-500,dividend inclusive etf)
    Nasdaq = +1.4% / +6.3%
    (per Google Finance)

    And the cargo is:
    CASH = 15%
    Mixed bond funds = 78.4%
    Equity funds = 6.6%
    -Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 18.5%
    -HY/HI bond funds 28.8%
    -Total bond funds 14.6%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 6.6%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    DHOAX Delaware HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest grade
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    TEGBX Templeton Global
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
    FRIRX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
    FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
    FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
    FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
    FDVLX Fidelity Value
    FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
    FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
  • What is your favorite T. Rowe Price fund
    Definately Cap App (PRWCX) but the manager of cap app from the mid 2000's started his own fund prospector capital appreciation (also of interest), but performance has not fallen of at all.
  • What is the consensus on FMI Large Cap (FMIHX) as a core holding?
    We do not use FMI Large Cap. It is certainly an ok option, and the concentrated portfolio is a plus. You might consider using a fund with smaller asset size. That would give the managers much more flexibility in the short term, until the fund gains popularity. We have been adding DGHM All Cap Value (DGAIX) to a number of our client accounts. Great history as a separately managed fund, consistent philosophy, reasonable fees of 0.99%. The retail shares are a higher 1.27%, but still reasonable for a very small, newer fund. And the attraction of being all-cap rather than held to a specific size of company is a real plus.
    There are other funds like this. Osterweis (OSTFX) is very similar to DGHM in terms of owning all sizes of companies. They can be a bit more growth-oriented than DGHM, but I would not get hung up about growth/value when picking managers and funds.
    My guess is that FMI Large Cap is an good option. Just don't tie yourself to large, mid, small, value, growth. What I would spend time on is finding the best managers who will give you an overall diversified portfolio.
  • Any experiences good, bad or indifferent, with AssetBuilder?
    I am designing an income-producing in-retirement portfolio for an elderly loved one. My overall plan is to allocate money into several different strategies to mitigate management risk. I am considering an AssetBuilder capital preservation portfolio for one of these strategies.
    I wondered if anyone had had any experience with AssetBuilder as a money management house. I am not particularly seeking comments about Scott Burns, DFA, or the theories behind DFA's indexing strategies. I am more looking for information on what it is like to invest money with them. Is the customer service good? Do they return emails and phone calls in a timely way? Are the tools for monitoring investments online sufficient for an individual investor's needs?
    Any experienced-based comments will be welcome.
    Thanks.
    gfb