Our Funds Boat, week/YTD, TIC-TOC, April 30, 2011 Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the fund. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....TIC-TOC, neither may this house beat the clock. We all have just those 24 hours, eh? Spring is trying to arrive in MI and that means fix up and/or clean up inside and outside from the perils of winter. We may have 2-3 months of decent weather time, when substracting the ill weather days between now and September. I am already behind on me chores; and have more than enough family and friend functions on the schedule for this summer; of which, we are pleased to have. SO, the Funds Boat report will scale back to a quarterly report; at least at this point of time allowance. We'll just have to see how things, and time move along, at this house. The next scheduled report will be at the end of June, 2011.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +.69% move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. GEE WHIZ....no buys or sells. In the way back days of "don't fight the FED"; I personally felt more comfortable with this statement. TODAY, the statement has the added ? of don't fight the "high freq trading machines". So, while the FED is still stimulating the money machine, this house really should be buying everything in sight that "should" continue to move up in value in equities or where ever the hot may travel. It all makes sense, eh??? Low real interest rates; I mean, what else would a fella ask for. 'Course there is the unemployment rate and a housing market that will likely be stuck in place for a few more years, at the very least. Some states are raising taxes and fees to overcome and to correct a mandatory budget balance. Assured our state folks via email, that every dollar they choose to take from this house will be one that will not be spent in the local economy...pretty much a "who cares". I guess we may just have to go with the flow and hang our monetary butts out onto the "investment clothes line" as far as we dare; and hope a big wind "market correction" does not come along and blow all of the new investment clothes onto the dirty ground. Former President G.W. Bush was the "decider" and Mr. Ben at the FED has created the world of the "riskers". Scott and others at FA mentioned/discussed a year or so ago about the possibility of the DOW going to 30,000, and other indexes moving to similar high turf. I guess all of this is possilbe; as more than ever, we really live in a world of "funny money". Our mish-mash portfolio is really getting its YTD pants beat off by the equity sectors; 'course we also do not stand to get the big face slap either, if and when the "machines" decide to go to the equity sell mode.
Good investment fortune to all in the coming months.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
How our boat's cargo is doing:
Week: = +.69%
YTD = +4.45%
And the cargo is:
CASH = 15%
Mixed bond funds = 78.4%
Equity funds = 6.6%
-Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 28.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 6.6%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
DHOAX Delaware HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest grade
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIRX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
it pays 10% / yr only if you invest before 5/5 ...and several other reads Hey John,
Thanks for the links. I was intrigued by the Ever Bank product. The 5 year example they illustrate on their website got me doing a little math. In their example (which I found here):
https://www.everbank.com/_documents/_marketsafe/DiversifiedCommodities_2011-05.pdfIt states that they would apply a 5 year cumulative interest of 27.2% to the initial investment. This would equate to five year CD paying 5%. The 27.2% sounds so much bigger doesn't it? I would worry about volatility in the commodities market offsetting positive
gains with negative losses which the investor absorbs. Remember, the bank is always taking the
gains over 10% while the investor absorbs any losses. What they don't show clearly are the banks profit totals for any cumulative Net Return over 10% which they receive almost risk free.
In the first year, the bank's average return is 18.4% verses 4.9% to the investor. Year two, it is an astounding 53% for the bank. Because of one loss (in hogs), just 7.1% for the investor. Year 3, the bank nets 83.5% and the investor a mere 7%. In year four, the investor absorbs 5 down market (less than 10%) netting an average for the year of just 0.6%. But, the bank doesn't take that risk. Their only rewarded with the "winning" five segments which net an average return of 69%. The fifth year, the bank almost doubles their money with an average return of 99.7%. The investor nets an average for year five of 7.6%.
This 5 year scenario would net the bank a cumulative return of 323.6%. At almost no risk.
The bank's only risk is to return your initial investment. They can accomplish this very cheaply by buying insurance such as options or other financial wizardry products.
Short version: Watch out!
Aston/DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond Fund
CEF (Central Fund of Canada) Depreciating? looks like many professionals and individuals are shorting gold and especially silver and calling for the market top. I heard SLV is out of shares to short (or too expensive) and they are now moving to CEF (which invests a large chunk in silver). It did loose its historical 8-9% premium and moved to a discount. for those building positions, it's might be a good time to add. I did pay a 5% premium back in May 2010 -- up 65% since though. looking to the end of may to get my long-term cap gains. would re-enter when it drops. volatility is breathtaking - up/down 4-5%. no one should put significant share of their wealth into this thing.
JR
(Re: PRLAX, others...) WHY is Brasil going nowhere fast? I was pointing that just because a country is having high growth does not necessarily mean a good stock market performance in the short term. The experience of China, Brazil, India etc. are current evidence.
On the long term, the research paper says that due to frequent diluted effects of stock offerings even if the country is growing fast, it may not reflect in the per share prices. Over the long term, the returns are more likely to be around that of developed markets.
So, it is all about timing for stock prices. If you jump in at the correct time by luck or otherwise, you will get good returns. If you jump in at other times you can lose a lot in a short time. People are looking at the returns in last decade and in particular last 5 years and jumping in both feet. They may get disappointed.
The cheerleaders of emerging markets like to point out to only the positive developments and have a tendency of minimizing the challenges and big issues.
Corruption, unproductive uses of capital, environmental destruction, limited market depths and crazy expansion of credit, extremely bad distribution of income and high inflation are some of the land mines waiting to explode and the longer this rally goes the higher the risks become. All is not well out there.
(Re: PRLAX, others...) WHY is Brasil going nowhere fast? Brazil is THE economic engine of Latin America. Its oil reserves and natural resources will help sustain a huge long-term economic growth cycle. Will there be pullbacks from time to time? Of course. Will there be inflation in this kind of growth cycle? Of course. How their government handles these things, along with necessary infrastructure and social spending will help to determine the eventual flow of growth, but it's hard to imagine a no-growth scenario for Brazil. The Olympics will create a huge infrastructure build-out, and rest assurred that Brazil will work to present itself as well as it can to the world on that stage, where billions will be watching.
I personally have a lot of confidence in Latin America, but I also recognize there will be some bumps along the way. We use ILF as our investment choice, and we have captured some significant gains in the last couple of years, always reminding ourselves not to be greedy. Stay invested, but don't let this sector get too far ahead of itself.
ETF's verses Closed end funds agree with a lot of your arguments to a point. Yes, it is a poor idea to buy a closed end fund at the IPO. But the dynamic of discounts and premiums could be used, if studied, for better entry and exit points.
also, one advantage that CEFs have over ETFs and open ended mutual funds is that the manager doesn't have to sell assets during market panic thus taking permanent loss of capital (unless they are excessively leveraged). When people dump cefs in panic (just like in your muni example), they loose their premium or deepen their discount while underlying holdings are intact. Thus, CEFs are great for less liquid asset classes, such as distressed debt, munis, micro caps and emerging and frontier markets.
again, this is a separate animal, always actively managed, and should be studied before jumping in. i am in no way an expert, but i started picking these up in the fall of 2008 and have since built some understanding.
My 401K bond options I am trying to save as much as I can in my 401k and really don't know what choices are the best. I have mostly equity funds with 30% T.Rowe Price 2030- RRTCX, 20% MSF Value- MVRRX, 20% Alger Cap Appr-ALARX, 15% Allianz NFJ Sm Cap-PCVAX, and 15% Janus Overseas-JIGRX.
The only exposure to bonds is in the 2030, so I am going100% to the PTTAX for a few months to build it up to 15%.
My company 401K is through ADP and ADP pretty much sucks in terms of service but I don't really know if the funds are quality or not. The complete list is:
I welcome all comments and observations.
Invesco Stable Asset Fund
RRTIX- T. Rowe Price Retirement Income R, + 2010-2050
PTTAX- PIMCO Total Return A
MVRRX-MFS Value R2
SVSPX- SSgA S&P 500 Index Instl
SRVEX- Victory Diversified Stock A
ALARX- Alger Capital Appreciation Instl I
FMIVX- Virtus Mid-Cap Value A
ATHAX- American Century Heritage A
PCVAX- Allianz NFJ Small Cap Value A
FSCTX- Fidelity Advisor Small Cap T
SSCRX- SSgA Small Cap R
PAIGX- T. Rowe Price Intl Gr & Inc Adv
JIGRX- Janus Overseas S
Templeton Global bonds Both Investor and Accipiter posted solid replies. I only suggest that you use the recent 52 week average premium/ discount and also look at a long term history. GIM goes back many years and it is all available on cefconnect.com (nuveen website) or cefa.org. Even M* has recently developed a CEF section. When premium is above historical average, there are bound to be wild swings in the price which have nothing to do with NAV. People who bought at a discount are booking their profits for example... So i do suggest sticking to the average or below average pricing.
Additionally, when you research a closed end fund, check out leverage and a distribution source. For GIM, there is no leverage, and the 5% distribution has been historically paid purely out of income, complemented by cap gains - no destructive return of capital.
Templeton Global bonds
My 401K bond options My 401K bond options are limited. I have Pimco Total Return A PTTAX and six T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds, Income-RRTIX, 2010-RRTAX, 2020-RRTBX, 2030-RRTCX, 2040-RRTDX, 2050-RRTFX.
I plan to increase the bond percentage of my 401K from less than 5% to about 15%. I currently only have bond exposure through RRTCX.
Which would you consider the better choice to increase the the percentage of bonds, Pimco, the 2010 or 2020.
Thanks in advance.
DPN
emergying market equity and bond funds. Just wish it were a bit cheaper though. Perhaps will drop in fees over time.
Lazard also just recently came out with a similar EM stock/bond strategy fund....
"The Lazard Emerging Markets Multi-Strategy Portfolio (the “Portfolio”) seeks total return from current income and capital appreciation by allocating capital across Lazard’s emerging markets equity and debt strategies utilizing the portfolio management team’s assessment of the changing economic landscape. The allocations to the underlying strategies are changed over time, and at any given point the allocation to one strategy (other than currency investments) may comprise a substantial percentage of the Portfolio’s assets. The Team gauges the global economic environment through quantitative and qualitative analysis, including the use of proprietary software models and internal and external research. By combining equity with debt strategies and periodically readjusting allocations, the Portfolio seeks to avoid the extreme outcomes typically found in emerging markets and, thereby, to create a lower volatility pattern of returns"
--- But I don't know how good and how deep of an EM Fixed-Income investment team they have as I don't see much history of EM Fixed-Income investing from Lazard unless they do so in Private/Institutitional accounts.
So investors would have to evaluate the additional costs versus the active-management benefits of getting the hands-free EM stock/bond tactical/strategic balancing done for you.
Our Funds Boat, week/YTD, Portfolio, PART 2, 4-23-11 NOTE: Part 2, The Portfolio
SELLs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a +.44% move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house.
JUST a sitt'in and watch'in what the next few weeks may bring. This house does not expect much to change with the FED debt issue and everything else that is going on in the world. BUT, we are curious as to how the big kid traders move forward. I suspect our CASH holding may not be out of line with some fund managers who are also sitt'in and watch'in. Lastly, official QE2 may end; but some other path will be found to "support" the U.S. economy. Mr. Bernank, after all; is a complete student of the Japanese economic situation and the depression of the '30's in America. This house suspects the U.S. economy is still not within Mr. B's comfort zone.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
How our boat's cargo is doing:
Week: = +.44%
YTD = +3.76%
Reference points, week / YTD:
SP-500 "SDY" = +.65% / +4.8% (SP-500,dividend inclusive etf)
Nasdaq = +1.4% / +6.3%
(per Google Finance)
And the cargo is:
CASH = 15%
Mixed bond funds = 78.4%
Equity funds = 6.6%
-Investment grade bond funds 12.2%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 28.8%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 6.6%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
DHOAX Delaware HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest grade
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIRX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FSAVX Fidelity Select Auto
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
CAMAX Cambiar Aggressive Value
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
What is your favorite T. Rowe Price fund Definately Cap App (PRWCX) but the manager of cap app from the mid 2000's started his own fund prospector capital appreciation (also of interest), but performance has not fallen of at all.
What is the consensus on FMI Large Cap (FMIHX) as a core holding? We do not use FMI Large Cap. It is certainly an ok option, and the concentrated portfolio is a plus. You might consider using a fund with smaller asset size. That would give the managers much more flexibility in the short term, until the fund gains popularity. We have been adding DGHM All Cap Value (DGAIX) to a number of our client accounts. Great history as a separately managed fund, consistent philosophy, reasonable fees of 0.99%. The retail shares are a higher 1.27%, but still reasonable for a very small, newer fund. And the attraction of being all-cap rather than held to a specific size of company is a real plus.
There are other funds like this. Osterweis (OSTFX) is very similar to DGHM in terms of owning all sizes of companies. They can be a bit more growth-oriented than DGHM, but I would not get hung up about growth/value when picking managers and funds.
My guess is that FMI Large Cap is an good option. Just don't tie yourself to large, mid, small, value, growth. What I would spend time on is finding the best managers who will give you an overall diversified portfolio.
Any experiences good, bad or indifferent, with AssetBuilder? I am designing an income-producing in-retirement portfolio for an elderly loved one. My overall plan is to allocate money into several different strategies to mitigate management risk. I am considering an AssetBuilder capital preservation portfolio for one of these strategies.
I wondered if anyone had had any experience with AssetBuilder as a money management house. I am not particularly seeking comments about Scott Burns, DFA, or the theories behind DFA's indexing strategies. I am more looking for information on what it is like to invest money with them. Is the customer service good? Do they return emails and phone calls in a timely way? Are the tools for monitoring investments online sufficient for an individual investor's needs?
Any experienced-based comments will be welcome.
Thanks.
gfb