Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement,
capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds.
Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... The equity and bond kids continue the battle. While there remains decent YTD returns in many equity sectors, the bond kids are not buying into the whole picture; at least as is reflected in the so-called "safe harbor" issues of the U.S. Treasury, German bunds, British gilts and Japan's bonds. The Spanish bond auctions this past week performed better than I expected. However, both the Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds remain close to a 6% yield. While this yield would not be out of place during a period of growth for these or other country economies; I am not convinced that such a yield/payment burden upon these two countries is sustainable given the current existing debt burdens, delevering at many levels, potential for growth and ongoing austerity programs. If one could find a statistic; I would not be surprised to find for this summer, that the number of increase in size or new vegetable gardens among the citizens of Greece, Italy and Spain, in particular, as well as many other European countries. This would be another indicator of economic quality.
As to sector rotations; at least relative to the U.S. (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varing degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested.)
--- U.S. equity +1.5 through - 1.2%, avg. = +.6%
--- Int'l equity +3 through 0%, avg. = +1.4%
--- U.S. eq. sectors +4 through -2.6%, avg. = +.5%
--- U.S. IG bonds +.2 through 0%, avg. = +.05%
--- HY bonds +.7 through +.1%, avg. = +.3%
The best groups among the equity sectors were health/medical, utilities and consumer staples. The best average in the IG bonds were TIPS funds. Int'l equity (generally Europe) performed much better than the broad U.S. equities. There is an obvious large spread among some of the areas listed above. Now if we can only discover the forward paths.
Meanwhile, the IMF continues to beg for money to support and/or stablize some European countries. To a point, I don't really care about or give credit to words that continue to flow from the mouths of many of the heads of these various groups. On any given day one may find a reversal of what these folks word to the microphone about the quality of a region or the prospect for global growth. Behind closed doors, I suspect one would find a great deal of concern as to "how do we get out of this mess?" Of course, a possible true scenario may be that "reality bites" and to allow the unwind to take place. Perhaps this is the plan with all of the money being thrown about; as what took many years to acccumlate will also take many years to unwind. Sadly, the uttered and changing words and thoughts from some of these folks in high places is of little value or comfort; and only causes more uncertainty. I find very few upfront leaders anywhere who are associated with politics, governments or the numerous global monetary organizations. Surprise, surprise; eh?
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends about each and every day; from forces beyond our control. We retail investors will find many interesting investment periods to ponder, as usual, in the coming years.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
--- NONE ---
Portfolio Thoughts:Our holdings had a
+ .20 % move this past week. Sidenote: The average return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = +.16, YTD +8.8%).
What is cash? This is a periodic question at MFO. For our house, we consider our IG bond holdings to be our cash in the current market conditions. One will find MM funds as a pure cash acct.; but even if fees are waived at this time, the average return for the past 3 years for a MM fund we could use (FDRXX) is .01%. Our IG bond funds have an average .45% expense ratio. An interesting question arises as to why in the world would one use a TIPS fund at all, let alone as a cash holding; and especially with the most recent TIPS auction closing with another negative yield? Move past the negative yield thought and to the fact that the yield also currently reflects a price/NAV increase. This is where the money is made today. Our two TIPS funds, APOIX and FINPX have YTD's of 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively. We find this return acceptable for parked money; with the added bonus of total flexibility to move the monies on a days notice to something more favorable.
The old Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves and watching the weather. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison a
gainst the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg BalancedBloomberg FlexibleThese next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative AllocationModerate AllocationA reflection upon the links above; we attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these YTD's per M*
VWINX .... + .64 week, YTD = + 3.92%
PRPFX .... + .44 week, YTD = + 4.82%
SIRRX ..... + .13 week, YTD = + 2.47%
TRRFX .... + .51 week, YTD = + 6.08%
VTENX ... + .47 week, YTD = + 5.39%
HSTRX .... - .16 week, YTD = + .07% (to be removed, fund no longer matches our mix)
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of March 9, 2012---
U.S.Stocks 10.5%
Foreign Stocks 6.8%
Bonds 78.5% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
***about 35% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 19.8%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 17.8%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid
Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
MACSX Matthews Asia Growth-Income