Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....May-Be there will be the Go Away in May within the next 30 days and return again in October, eh? 2010 and 2011 had these cycles; with special help from Europe, and in particular, Greece's situation, let alone mention the U.S. debt downgrade in July, 2011. Ted recently noted that he will be off-loading equities and moving to cash at the end of May. For the numerous investors at MFO who have the skills to move monies in a timely fashion; they may find equity returns of +20 through +40% for 2012, depending on the equity sectors and percentages involved in their holdings. I sincerely salute all who will be able to attain these goals.
To the "lite" side of life. I will soon begin my special weekend project helping the local school band boosters raise monies for various projects with selling raffle tickets for the "cow pie" drop. The annual town carnival will be in place the first week of June. A young cow, will be inside a small corral; with numbered squares placed upon the ground. As a "cow pie" is produced, the square number will be noted. From a box of sold raffle tickets, the related number ticket will be drawn for the winner. "Cow pie on number 4 and the 4th ticket drawn is the winner. Winners will be drawn on Sat. and Sun.; as pies are produced. A $1 ticket = a $100 chance win.
As to sector rotations below; for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varing degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested.)
--- U.S. equity +.55% through + 3.2%, avg. = +.4%
--- Int'l equity -1% through + 1.9%, avg. = +.34%
--- U.S. eq. sectors - 3.5% through +3.9%, avg. = +.4%
--- U.S. IG bonds -.08% through +.46%, avg. = +.03%
--- HY bonds +.20% through +.87%, avg. = +.18%
The 3 best groups among the U.S. equity sectors were retail, nat. gas and biotech. The best in the IG bonds were TIPS funds, with Ginnie Mae's being slightly down and in last place. Int'l equity (generally Europe) performed the best overall, with Latin America and China regions being weakest with losses. There is an obvious large spread among some of the areas listed above. Now if we can only discover the forward paths.
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends about each and every day; from forces beyond our control. We retail investors will find many interesting investment periods to ponder, as usual, in the coming years.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
--- NONE ---
Portfolio Thoughts:Our holdings had a
+ .67 % move this past week. Sidenote: The average return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = +.29, YTD +10.2%).
Plodding along. While IG bonds are not setting returns on fire; they are not giving ground to the recent equity rally. Among the writing and talking head professionals, one will find enough folks in both camps who won't own anything but equity or bonds. These folks are always at war to make profits. Both camps, using the best of their skills will make a profit. For we retail investors; it comes down to your risk/reward tolerance in conjunction with your skills, as well as how much money you can afford to lose and still maintain a most comfortable life style. We surely are not all in the same boat for this area. The so-called 1% and 99% exists here, and with other retail investors, too.
The old Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves and watching the weather. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg BalancedBloomberg FlexibleThese next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative AllocationModerate AllocationA reflection upon the links above; we attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
VWINX .... + .72 week, YTD = + 4.67%
PRPFX .... + .81 week, YTD = + 5.66%
SIRRX ..... + .22 week, YTD = + 2.69%
TRRFX .... + .84 week, YTD = + 6.98%
VTENX ... + .80 week, YTD = + 6.24%
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of March 9, 2012---
U.S.Stocks 10.5%
Foreign Stocks 6.8%
Bonds 78.5% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
***about 35% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 19.8%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 17.8%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
MACSX Matthews Asia Growth-Income
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Yes, each fund has its own benchmark; but the psuedo benchmarks we use with the indicated funds attempt to provide a reflection towards our overall portfolio.
Not unlike M* or Bloomberg attempting to benchmark certain funds; they too find it difficult to determine what might be a benchmark category.
As our portfolio has a varied mix; some of the funds indicated and the conversative/moderate allocation links hopefully allow others to have a rough compare. PRPFX is the least associated fund, but is classified as balanced, flexible or moderate allocation; depending upon which fund web site one checks. As PRPFX is generally well known among many individual investors, it too; is listed to compare against.
Our portfolio is flexible and balanced toward the moderate side, more or less. Aside from what M* generates for the holdings mix; I sure don't know what they would use for a benchmark against the portfolio.
U.S.Stocks 10.5%
Foreign Stocks 6.8%
Bonds 78.5% ..... with about 35% of these being HY/HI
Other 4.2%
The kinda - similar equity/bond funds to compare are for the benefit of whomever wants to peek inside these other funds to find their construction and use their own judgment. FAGIX is listed as a HY/HI bond fund; and it is to the extent of the major holdings. But, this fund also averages 15% of its holdings to the equity side. Its benchmark is HY/HI; but this is only partially correct, eh?
Swensen of Yale University Endowment indicates this mix for individual investors; as of August, 2011:
30% Domestic US Equity (VTI)
15% Foreign Developed Equity (VEA)
10% Emerging Markets (VWO)
15% Real Estate (VNQ)
15% U.S. Treasury Bonds (IEF)
15% Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP)
Is this portfolio a moderate allocation or ? What might be its benchmark? It is not static, as he notes the mix should be rebalanced as needed; and then its benchmark will change.
I will presume there are at least some here at MFO who view their own portfolio mix and make a mental calculation as to what to benchmark their holdings. Per your note about perhaps moving away from equities at the end of May will change what your portfolio was and would become. But, you would be performing this move to protect your normal portfolio mix. I can not presume your portfolio mix; but would guess from several posts over the years that you are more inclined towards various equity sectors, but I surely don't know if that means70/30 or 50/50 or 30/70.
Lastly, as we can not presume anything about the age, skill level or risk level of those who read MFO; perhaps someone will benefit from the psuedo benchmark funds. They may discover that VWINX is suitable for their portfolio. If one person here obtains some value of information from any of our postings; well, I am fully satisfied from the effort.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
http://www.artfuzz.com/most/BENS/60879.jpg
I used to have duplicating funds in my tax-deferred IRA versus 401(K). It took quite a while to trim back to less than 12 funds. Now the retirement bucket is much easier to manage.
-bench·mark (bnchmärk) - 1. A standard by which something can be measured or judged - 2. To measure (a rival's product) according to specified standards in order to compare it with and improve one's own product.http://www.thefreedictionary.com/benchmark -
While I disagree with Catch on some issues, this is not one of them. In fact, he recently broadened his choice of benchmarks, in response to member suggestions, to reflect a greater diversity of investment approaches. The fact approximately 500 viewers have accessed this thread suggests a great many find his weekly commentary of interest.