Howdy,
The below current holdings for the funds indicated, clickable specific links are within each fund ticker type.
Loomis Sayles MultiSector Bond funds
We recently sold our position in TEGBX due to market reactions (downside) that began to set a similar pattern to the downside in 2011. Perhaps this fund will rotate to the more positive side for the remainder of the year; but our house remains perplexed by the total absence of U.S. Treasury holdings in a fund named Global Bond.
As to a bond mix; we have sprinkles everywhere, and will continue to diversify the diversification among holdings and management styles/choices, as every management group will not "get it right" all of the time:
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
Regards,
Catch

Wondering...........
The fund name should be Templeton Global ex-U.S. bond fund.
Mr. Hasenstab notes from the article:
Hasenstab- "Whether it's credit risk or whether it's currency risk, there's no way to get returns without taking some degree of risk..."
And this statement is what has kept him away from U.S. Treasury issues? It also has affected the portfolio performance for a few years, too. I am sure he no longer looks at capital appreciation from the 7-30 year Treasury issues; and I am also sure he could care less about what I think.
Oh, well; I sure can't argue against his thinking in the same light; as he has forgotton more knowledge about the bond sector; than I have ever known in my life, during the time it took me to write this statement.
I wish both of us well, going forward with our bond sector choices..........
And for all who would like a real ringer of a time in the bond world; purchase the Spanish and/or Italian 10 yr issues. The yields may be close to the top edge.
May be some easy money sitting with these; if one can stay ahead of JPMorgan or GS or.

Howdy,
1. Do you already have other bond funds that are similar to these in mix or sectors?
2. FEBAX is just newborn, May, 2012. I personally would need more time to find how management steers through the current debt markets which contain some big waves here and there.
3. Do you have access to other bond funds that do not carry a 4.5% front load? Such a load would find similar HY funds at a break even point at this point of the year; in other words, the load would have killed all HY bond gains YTD, and one would just now start to make money if the HY sector continues to move forward at its current annual pace.
Regards,
Catch

I suppose the hedge fund issue comes down to the fact that there are many failed funds (and/or managers who can't make it back to the high mark, therefore close up shop and start over again somewhere else.) When investing in hedge funds, you are investing in a fund with a much larger toolbox and greater flexibility (in many cases) than what a mutual fund can offer. However, it depends on whether or not the manager can use those tools and that flexibility effectively. You are also, in many cases, paying 2 and 20. There are some, however, who have pretty consistently knocked out gains, such as David Einhorn and Dan Loeb. There are others I'm not thinking of, but those two - while they have made mistakes - have put together impressive longer-term track records.
Look at Paulson, who made one of the most successful bets of all time, then has had an awful couple of years since. Paulson didn't get stupid, but maybe after making one of the most successful bets in Wall Street history, investors in the funds - if given the opportunity - maybe should have seen the opportunity to take profits.
The issue with computer-driven trading is that you have hedge funds now literally trying to find prices of wheat in Babylon in order to get that edge over their competition. Hiring weathermen, physicists, etc. I don't think that many of these funds can't keep doing well, but when you are sending researchers to the ends of the Earth to find esoteric data, what's "the next step" when needed to get the edge again, when needed?
"Keynes equated the stock market to a casino or a game of chance, completely unpredictable. "
I've started to agree more with what Mark Cuban said recently, essentially comparing stocks that don't pay dividends to baseball cards.
"More recently, Morningstar reinforces that same poor timing observation with their own analysis that reveals that individual investors are often late when buying top-ranked fund performers. "
When Cramer went on Regis and Kelly and proclaimed CGM Focus to be his favorite fund, I thought that was it for that (and I thought it was rather interesting to sell the most volatile fund on the planet to that audience, but whatever.) Sure enough that was about it.

Dear John: In my capital preservation portfolio, I have about 5% in cash, in my capital appreciation portfolio I have none.
Ted

Hi Catch,
I have some comments that I will make and in making them perhaps it will provide some insight into my thinking and my practice that will provide some answers to the questions you raise without a direct response to any of them.
First, I believe every investor needs to establish their tolerance for risk along with setting some goals they wish to achieve through investing. Their portfolio needs to be tailored along these lines. For me, I am willing to invest in assets of the moderate risk type that offer income generation stream and also provide for the opportunity of some capital appreciation over time knowing in some periods there may be some negative appreciation along the way (decline in price).
Second, I believe what one pays for securities has a great deal of bearing in making money. Indeed price is important. I follow the practice I learned from my late father. When equities are towards their 52 week low most likely they have become over sold from fear and good buying opportunities can be found. Dad had a strong will and would not buy unless he felt he was receiving good value and his portfolio was built over time … not over just over a few years. He would not chase an up trending market. If he had not already positioned for an anticipated rebound he sat it out. To him, this was investing spreading his activity out over years. In trading there is the desire and rush to get rich quickly. I read about too many folks trying to trade their way to success. I do not know of any of my friends that have found success through day trading. And, one of them was a very smart person, a nuclear engineer by profession that felt he was bigger than the market through way of his intelligence. Lost most of his 401k money and with that committed suicide. So, the bottom line, don’t over pay for what you buy and buy it with some conviction. I invest mostly for total return … Investments that offer some capital appreciation and pay dividends. An important feature I like to see in a company is that it has a history of raising these dividends to their investors as they grow profit. This is not to say that I don’t have some fixed income as I do and I believe there is a place for it in every portfolio.
Third, I believe a good investor can recognize a market top. A simplified way to do this is once equities are approaching their 52 week highs perhaps they have become over bought from investor enthusiasm. I have observed many of my family members only buy when they feel equities are on a good upward roll and become mystified when they discover they have over paid now that the market has begun its decent. Actually, I use to use my aunt as a sell indicator. When she started to buy, I started to sell because she usually committed her money after equities had had a good strong run and from my thoughts they had become overbought.
Forth, I believe all investors should keep some dry powder, cash, to seize upon opportunity.
Fifth, I believe one should not invest one’s cash reserves held for emergency. They should be held away from your portfolio and not comingled with other cash assets within it. Once you have built an emergency fund … and, only then, should one consider investing. After all, investing entails certain risk. It offers the opportunity for gain as well as the opportunity for loss. And, most of all, I believe one should govern and invest accordingly and within their abilities.
This is how we do it in this house hold. And, in stating the above, I am not saying this is by any means the right way for all.
I wish all … whatever your investing style and skill might be … “Good Investing.”
Skeeter

Sunday morning coffee break,
What's your trigger point(s)?
--- Are you using fundamental or techinical analyis, or a combination? Are the fundamentals without merit; at least at a company level, and that the global (central banks and debt) the real place to view what may be fundamental to your investments? A few have noted here, that their market trigger points came to view in the month of April; and a review of charts indicates a most correct call. Congratulations.
How are you guaging the markets?
--- Take no prisoners. While past sideways markets may have provided some shelter in domestic equity havens of broad healthcare, consumer staples and utility area investments; a take no prisoners equity market puke doesn't really care about these sectors, eh?
What's your breaking point?
--- How far does one ride a sector or broad market move? This question is not just inclinced to a sell function; but also to a buy function, any given sectors.
D-I-Y long/short fund house.
--- Without actually investing in an active long/short fund; many investors are operating their own long/short portfolio based upon their mix. Not unlike a long/short fund; the balance may tilt too far one way or the other. L/S funds do have the obvious advantage of using all of the tools (put/call options and the full tool box) to modify in a short time period to where they think a market sector(s) may be headed. For individuals, a most simple plan of a 50/50 split between VTI and BND (or one's favorites in these areas) could do the trick.
Our current portfolio has become ballasted more and more towards IG bonds; not that we have not had some of this ballast in place for the past 3 years. Whether or not anyone who reviews the Funds Boat is in agreement to our portfolio mix is not the point of the posting; only to the fact of another portfolio view for consideration, and that we place our monies where our mouth is.....
As is always noted (especially for new visitors to this site); is that our position is directed towards capital preservation first, and to hopefully trickle growth into the mix; regardless of how or where from, the growth arrives. However, captial preservation must also be a priority for the beginner, too; and regardless of the age for those who have been investing for any number of years and find retirement to be a few decades away. The value of capital preservation is the ability to compound the positive, regardless of how small the return; into continued growth going forward.
What is your plan with your portfolio during this twitchy investing period? Is this period just a re-do of 2010 and 2011, or otherwise? Or do you feel this is just a blip to ride out and the problems will be resolved in a timely manner to your satisfaction and have no long term impact upon your portfolio?
Okay, out of coffee.
A few simplified questions posted for this house and yours; but requiring more complex answers. Not really a totally fair mix between a simple question requiring a complex answer; but some of the questions we all attempt to answer for ourselves. I don't recall any quotes about investing being a simple task.
Be careful out there in investment land and take care of you and yours.
Catch

Howdy Kaspa,
Your money is in a good place; as you should have been able to keep your equity gains from last fall and now compounding upon that. The ultimate plan, eh?
One may suppose some magical event taking place and the financial troubles will be healed and gone. NOT!
If we find a bit more twitch in the system on Monday, will would likely further offload the more sensitive bonds.....HY, EM and do a trim job on LSBDX. Hopefully, some of the remaining diversified bond funds will maintain.
'Course I know there are those who are awaiting bond holders to get their clock's cleaned. Your BOND holding at least allows you to head for the hills within a few minutes of trading.
Good work for paying attention to the items you monitor.
Regards,
Catch

I hold USTEX (USAA Tax Exempt LT Muni) which has shown capital appreciation along with its 4.21% yield (1 yr total return of 13.82%). Higher interest rates are coming but, in the meantime; not a bad place to park some tax free cash.
Related Article:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45477912?__source=yahoo

Reply to @ron:
Hi ron,
As mentioned, LT Teasuries have been and will continue to be an insurance policy for equities. If you agree with that perspective they are still providing this dynamic for an investor who includes them. One of my reallocation strategies has been to take equity profits and use them to buy LT treasuries and other alternative investments to equities. I diversify my profits.
There may come a point where these holdings (LT Treasuries and the like) show outsized gains or move out of favor. I own BTTRX (American Century Zero Coupon 2025) as well as USAGX. I try to pair these two investments as insurance against each other. Gains in one get reallocated to the other. This smooths the ride as well as keeps me invested in both. Here's a chart of the two together:

Thanks, Skeeter; for the article.
The article writer noted:
"Therefore, while the crystal ball remains cloudy, with possible thunderstorms on the horizon, we think that yield-starved investors will likely resume, once the current near-panic rush to safety subsides, gradually gravitating toward those investments that offer at least the possibility of inflation-beating gains vs. the near zero after-inflation yields likely on most non-stock investments."
>>>>> Non-stock investments, meaning bonds, eh? Yields low = yes, current price appreciation = yes
We all need reminders and reference points in our multi-faceted investment world. Link from Ted's post.
"Print and read aloud 3 times, then hang onto the wall"
Regards,
Catch

Morn'in Coffee,
Hmmmmmmmmmm.....article note....."And four, President Barack Obama and a newly elected Congress will have maximum political capital to make it happen in early 2013."
Apparently, the writer knows something we do not.
The writer did not mention the fact that this congress will again have a few lame duckers who may ride their horses where they choose outside of the corral area; as their actions are no longer subject to those who elected them in a previous election cycle.
Lastly, as to a U.S. downgrade.....well, if the U.S. is still the best turd pile growing and going, one may still find beautiful roses growing from the top of the pile; while the other global turd piles may still be growing nothing but stink weed plants.
Roll the dice, if you so choose.
Regards,
Catch

Reply to @kevindow:
Thanks. I'm not averse to mult-cap funds, and in fact prefer them. (My goal in identifying funds that fit particular "squares" is not to pigeonhole them but to identify building blocks that can be used to construct a balanced portfolio. A multi-cap fund, almost by definition, is balancing out several (but hardly all) squares. At the same time, because it still averages out to a particular part of the market, its "center of gravity" can be used to adjust a portfolio that is skewed elsewhere, or to replace other funds that ply the same waters.)
All that said, though your suggestions work for you, they're not quite what I am looking for.
FSNAX - this is indeed a multi-cap value fund, as classified by Lipper, and even M*'s style breakdown shows a distinct value leaning (though M* puts it in the blend column, and the fund benchmarks itself against the Russell 1000, not 3000).
But it is a new fund; and the managers, though they have managed private accounts, do not seem to have prior experience running retail funds. These factors tend to add to risk. I'm more inclined to accept high turnover (here, 174%) in a growth fund than a value one. Since the fund holds securities for just a few months, that makes it hard to figure out what it's doing by looking - and being able to do so is even more important given its short track record. Might be worth watching to see how it does in a variety of markets, though the high turnover and expenses (1.36% even after waivers) make it less attractive to me.
GOODX - you do like new funds. Here though, the managers have long track records. And the turnover is extremely low (12%), with reasonable costs (1.10%).
A bit larger cap than I'd like (with over 2/5 of the portfolio invested in large caps). Also, a really concentrated fund (20 stocks plus other securities) makes me uneasy - others love this show of confidence by fund managers. M* notes that due to this and the managers' general style, the they expect the fund to be rather volatile. Not what I'm particularly looking for, though that can work out well in the long term. (And especially with low turnover, they won't be dumping stocks in response to the volatility.)
As you note, the other funds are not value-leaning, so I'll just comment briefly on them.
UMBMX - good fund, worth keeping in mind for mid cap core.
Nothing's perfect, and the thing for me to watch here is the turnover (195%). That doesn't seem to have affected tax costs yet, but that may be due to the fund growing so quickly (so that gains realized early in the year are spread over a larger number of investors at the end of the year, reducing the impact of the turnover). The fund tripled in size between 2009 and 2010, and again tripled between 2010 and 2011. (Years ending June 30, per prospectus). To date, since June of last year, it's "only" doubled in size. This is not necessarily a good thing, and needs to be monitored too.
WPFIX - excellent fund, worth watching on the growth side. Does okay in down markets, somewhat outperforms in up ones. Very low turnover, reasonable expenses, very low tax costs. Somewhat concentrated portfolio (but somewhat mitigated by extremely low turnover).
DEFIX - already commented in previous post above.
Thanks again. Some interesting funds. Not necessarily my cup of tea, but they work for you and they seem to have a lot going for them.

Brazil Disappointing Now, But Not For Long
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/05/25/brazil-disappointing-now-but-not-for-long/
"For investors that can afford to ignore the short term technical indicators, those are the Brazilian fundamentals. Yes, the country is tarnished, but she is still alluring, said Marcelo Salomon, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York on Friday.
Markets have become disillusioned with Brazil. Strong government intervention in several sectors, including the local currency, the real, has pushed investors to the sidelines. Equity outflows have been the norm for the last several weeks, according to fund trackers at EPFR Global.
First the bad news, which close Brazil investors already know."
{...}
Salomon said in a seven page note to clients that the pessimism on Brazilian growth is “excessive.” Monetary and fiscal stimuli will push the economy up in the second half of the year.
The credit cycle will gain more traction heading into the third quarter. The growth rate of the real wage bill, lagged by three months, is a good leading indicator of non-performance rates (overdue bills, defaulted loans). The benefits of the new upswing in growth of higher real incomes are only starting to kick in now. As we move into the second half, non-performers should start to fall, signalling a healthier banking sector. Government banks like Banco do Brasil beefing up price competition by lowering rates should have a larger short-term effect on loan spreads at places like Bradesco.

Howdy,
Recent chatter during the past few days has theories of Greece leaving the EZ and its currency....again. Part of the theory would require that between a Friday close of Wall St. and before the opening of markets in New Zealand, would allow 46 hours to do the whole deal, including all of the needed functions of establishment of the drachma, reset all of the Greek banks..............and blah, blah.
I don't find this as a reasonable situation and find that a formal plan would have to be in place that may require at least two weeks of work.
--- Worse case scenario...........either way.
Greece stays in the EZ........their debt is still worthless and is an entry in an electronic file of the ECB and countries holding the trash. If Greece leave the EZ, the electronic debt is still trash. Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy would monitor the reaction to such an event of Greece leaving the EZ; and have their own considerations. Germany in particular will not likely allow for a large debt into their own country to help Greece stay in the EZ; which would also likely cause inflation in Germany............but not from a growing economy.
Regardless of who stays or goes, much of the debt is nasty paper; and in the best situation of a fix, will take many years to paydown or unwind.
Some in Europe have mentioned offering an ECB bond. Duh, what will this do? Nada, in my opinion. These would only be fresh manure piled upon the old manure; but it is still a manure pile, only larger.
If a perceived magical temporary fix arrives from the current Euro conference now in place. The equity markets could rally as those with shorts against these markets sell their shorts. When the upmove causes enough new value to be reaped, down come the equity markets again.
I see large capital letter WWWWWWWW's for the markets charts for the remainder of this year. The high and low points of the WWWWWW's will come from the traders and machines.
In the longer term, if Greece and others leave the Euro; at least they will be able to compete to some extent with any exports against stronger currencies. The hurt would come from whatever they had to import to survive; paying the big dollar/Euro. How many new Drachma would be required to buy any type of fuel needed in Greece?
Lastly, cracks have finally appeared over the past several days in the Euro versus $. Euro's are traveling somewhere away from perceived real danger; in my opinion.
What say you?
Thank you.
Respectfully,
Catch

also a couple of reads about retirement/long term investings
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703438504577042394189481000.html#printMode
http://seekingalpha.com/article/309386-time-to-throw-away-the-4-withdrawal-rule-for-retirement
http://seekingalpha.com/article/309115-retirement-scenarios-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2011/11/21/withdrawal-rates-drop-as-fees-rise/
http://www.burnsidenews.com/Opinion/Columns/2011-11-14/article-2804370/The-new-retirement-and-effects-of-market-risk/1
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/americans-in-the-dark-about-the-real-cost-of-retirement-131508253.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/298138-rewriting-the-4-rule
also rono's previous retirement commentary, a must read imho
rono - retirements
Think of your retirement like a stool with legs. We all know that if your stool only has one leg, it won’t be very sturdy. Even if it has two legs, it will likely tip over. Once we get to three legs, it’ll stand on its own. With four legs, it becomes even sturdier. In addition, you want your legs to be strong.
With your retirement, the objective is to have as many legs under your own retirement stool as you can. More is better. You always want more legs. In this way, even if one leg falters or is cut off, you have other legs to support your stool. Five is better than four, six is better than five.
Examples of legs are numerous, but we can start with Social Security. Add in your Pension. How about a saving account? The equity in your house is a good one. You want to include deferred compensation and an IRA. Another leg could be an outside business – you could be an EBAY dealer, or a landlord, or have a corner store. What about having children that have gotten a good education (largely with you help, I should add). You might have a collection of widgets that have value. These ALL can become legs under your retirement stool. Which do you have and how strong are they?
SOCIAL SECURITY. Regardless of how secure you may, or may not, think the system is, in all likelihood it will be around to a greater or lesser degree. Sure, the age at which you can start drawing may increase and even benefits may be reduced. However, it remains such a key component of our society, that to some degree it will be one of your legs.
PENSION. Whether you’re going to receive a Defined Benefits (traditional) pension, or a Defined Contributions (401K) type pension, this is also another key leg under your stool. A traditional pension is nice because supposedly it’s a guaranteed income for the remainder or your life [note: this is no longer such a guarantee as in the past]. Sometimes you even have the choice of a “cash out” option where you can roll the monies into a Rollover IRA and thereafter have control over it. With a Defined Contribution (401K) pension, you also have some benefit in that it’s portable. If you decide to change jobs, you can ‘take it with you’. Normally, this is also through the process of moving it into a Rollover IRA.
SAVINGS. Hopefully, we all have some savings if nothing other than an Emergency Fund. An Emergency Fund is where you start and is normally six months worth of expenses (bills). Once this fund is established, additional savings can be invested or simply left in the bank. Either way, this money also represents another leg.
DEFERRED COMPENSATION. Many employers offer some sort of deferred compensation in addition to the 401(k), in which you have an option of also investing. Depending upon the particular plan, the limits may or may not be similar to those of a 401. You might have similar or different investment options and you also might have different withdrawal rules. However, it can become another Leg under your retirement stool.
IRA (TRADITIONAL OR ROTH). The Roth IRA is one of the nicest gifts ever made to us by the federal government. With limits, you can contribute up to a certain amount each with after-tax dollars and later withdraw everything TAX EXEMPT. There are some minor restrictions on withdrawal of the gains (not the principal), but these are minor and end at 59 ½ . After that you can take it out however you wish without worries about the taxes. This is very neat.
With the traditional IRA, if you have a lower income, you can contribute with after tax monies (the credit comes when you file your taxes). This money grows tax deferred but your withdrawals are subject to tax as income. There are even situations where it may be wise to contribute to a traditional IRA when you don’t qualify for the tax break. This is because you’ve contributed After tax money and therefore only the gain is taxable at a later date – not the principal. You would want to weigh the tax implications both now and in the future to go this route, but it should be considered in some situations.
A further note about these tax exempt or deferred IRS type of retirements savings plans (401, 403, 457, traditional IRA and Roth IRA) is that they often have drastically different withdrawal rules and tax implications. This means they provide a great deal of flexibility in how your use them for retirement . . . and flexibility is good.
HOME EQUITY. Buy a home. Period. It beats renting as you’re paying into your OWN equity, rather than the landlord’s. Over time this equity will increase and become available, should you need it, in retirement. There is even now such a thing as a reverse mortgage. This is where, in retirement, you sell your home to the bank, and continue to live in it until you die, but they pay YOU a monthly mortgage payment. However, this only works if you’ve either paid it off, or most of it, because in effect, you’re borrowing on your equity. Home equity is a great and crucial leg under your retirement stool.
OUTSIDE INCOME. Start another business on the side. Sell stuff on EBay. Become a landlord and rent out houses. With any of these, you’re establishing a second stream of income and another leg under you stool.
CHILDREN. You’ve heard the expression, “my son (daughter) - the doctor”. Well, don’t sneeze. Having kids and helping them through school so they can get good paying jobs is a form of security in your old age that can be very important. How many know of someone who had a parent or other relative move in with them? Whether you need or want to use it, it can be another leg.
In summary, you want to take an inventory of the number of legs you have under your retirement stool and how strong each of them is. Can you add another leg or two between now and when you retire? Can you strengthen any of the weaker legs you presently have?
The bottom line is that your retirement is only as secure and sturdy as you make it and having a variety of strong legs under your retirement stool, provide a diversity that can insure you against any one or more legs, getting chopped off or eliminated. Or think of it as diversifying your retirement. If diversification is good for your portfolio . . . why is it not good for your retirement?

Hi Maurice,
You noted: "Are you reacting to what has happened in the last month, or are you anticipating something that will happen?
>>>I have noted (past few days posts) a few areas I have been watching in particular.Aside from all of the crazy news that travels around each day, I do try to pick apart some areas to help make decisions. The first piece I watched was the pull back in metals and commodity related equities in early March. We sold 1/2 of the metal equities (FSAGX) then, as well as all of FFGCX.
In early April, some technical indicators looked a little shakey; but there have been numerous flips and flops, so we didn't take any action then (should have, when looking in the rearview mirror, eh?). Since early May there has been weakness in some areas of the U.S. equity and appeared to be a normal pull back from the run since last fall. Next (last week) was too much weakness in both the emerging markets equity and bond area. This didn't look good from my viewpoint. Next came a few other points that I did not like: The Austrian equity market was showing larger losses than other northern Euro area neighbors. Austria was reported a year or two ago to have one of the largest bond exposures to Euro area bonds of poor quality. Monday of this week found the Australian dollar losing strength against the U.S. dollar, which to me indicated a softness perhaps being projected towards the Asia area. One other Aussie event (I can't find the link) is that their 10 year gov't bond and their central bank rate (Feds fund type of rate) converged to have near the same yield. This is also a sign of weakness and/or fear and could also indicate more buying into this area/time frame of bonds. Also the $Euro moved and stayed below the $1.30 exchange rate and continues down. The last trip point was finding the 1% daily drops in the junk bond area. This is not a normal pattern by any means. For the monitoring I do, in a most general manner; if the U.S. equity market moves down 1%, I expect to find managed junk bond funds to perhaps move down about .33%. I appears from the link in the post just in front of this post, that there was some behind the scenes business taking place in this sector. One other area and a fund we have held for some time is FDLSX, that provided other clues as this fund began to sell off and reflects selling in McD's, Yum brands, Starbucks and many other food industry areas.
Actually I don't have any issue with what you've decided to do with your junk bond funds (ya I still use that name). I've never understood why you were so heavy into junk. Well I know a lot of people are reaching for yield, without fully appreciating the additional risk added to their portfolios.
>>>We have held our junk bond funds for just about 3 years. Yes, these bonds are issued by companies and others that are having problems. But, if an economy is moving along, even slowly; as has been the U.S. the default risk is not great. I have noted before, that I view the HY area as bonds with the potential for capital appreciation if the demand is there, in addition to the yield; and are not unlike those who choose to buy equity funds with the potential for capital appreciation, but also are high dividend payers. With the market actions this week, the high paying dividend equities will find not mercy either.
But your move out of equities leaves me scratching my head.
>>>In addition to what I noted above, I am not optimistic about any fixes in the near future and expect continued downward pressure in many market areas at least through the early fall. Past this time period I remain concerned post-elections, too. I fully expect more bump and run from the big traders and will not be surprised with the recent sells and likely coming sells that there may be some sharp upward moves in the equity sectors here and other global areas. The most difficult part of this is to determine if any upward moves in the markets are anything more than the big kids playing for a few % points down and up; and down and up. They will may good money if they trade things properly.
If I missed something; or created more questions, give me a shout.
We'll attempt to hide out for awhile among some bond funds and watch. Lastly, I anticipate further reductions of more of our holdings on Friday. Asia markets tonight are not happy, finding Australia down -2% at this write.
Take care,
Catch

Reply to @kevindow: There's a general dislike towards equities by much of the retail population, it seems, which now includes rich people (according to a poll CNBC was discussing yesterday), who are buying diamonds and other things - hard assets (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47446781). "A recent survey from Harrison Group and American Express Publishing found that the wealthy have cut back their allocations to stocks dramatically since the economic crisis."
Personally, my view:
If you are near retirement age, it's understandable not wanting to take considerable risk and focusing on fixed income.
Otherwise, as I noted in another thread, I really don't understand buying treasuries here, and while corprates and dividend paying stocks are fine and great, the race for yield is an immensely crowded trade - everyone and their cousin wants yield. That trade could go on for years, potentially, but I think it gets to a point where people may look at yield first and fundamentals second.
People definitely don't like stocks (please, someone start liking stocks so CNBC can STFU about how the retail investor hasn't come back - it's getting to the point where I can't even have it on in the background - and now CNBC's number one idiot, Steve "Baghdad Bob" Leisman just said that the US is better off than the rest of the world, because look at this great Facebook IPO we're doing), and while the sentiment could be an indicator in favor of them, I think people have to be able to deal with what I think will be continued significant volatility because problems (like Europe) continue to be postponed and keep coming back.
I don't think many people are willing to deal with that kind of volatility and furthermore, I think people see what's going on and - whether they're eventually going to be proven right or not - it just reinforces their view that the market is rigged, the market is too risky, the market is... (fill in the blank.) I will say that - and I've said this before - if the market really cracks again there will be tumbleweeds blowing through the NYSE - you'll lose the interest of another large portion of the population, both wealthy and not.
Personally, I have some funds and a number of individual holdings where I think there's a compelling long-term story/theme and fundamentals (as I noted yesterday, largely overseas.) What else can ya do?
As for rich folks, I think their view and their pulling money is why you've seen a number of hedge fund managers looking for "permanent capital" (Ackman: "... with permanent capital we can be more opportunistic during periods of market and investor distress.”) by either going for a public fund (Loeb, possibly Harbinger and Ackman now apparently early in 2013 - http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/ackman-to-go-public-with-pershing-square-holdings-in-2013-11985/) or a reinsurance company (Loeb, Einhorn, SAC) or are funds converting to mutual funds (RLSFX and the new Pimco Long/Short fund.)

Howdy,
Tis midnight in Michigan and my head should be at the pillow.
While I sleep Asia will have decided its path and Europe will still be in play.
I suspect a sea of red surrounding the funds boat when I awake.
We all know of some of the nasties surrounding our investments. I have been watching Australia and Austria. The Aussie market relfecting Asian markets and Austria as it has been reported over the past few years that its central bank has a high exposure to Euro debt of various countries which may be at below junk status, eh?
These two areas may seem a bit of a strange duo to watch, but they are part of what I view. Austria in particular has had the most serious declines in its equity markets; and perhaps this is a reflection that their may be truth of the country's bad Euro debt exposure.
Aside from many charts and indicators looking a bit nasty, the remainder I will have to pin to intuition. The best gains from today remain to be the "short" plays on many fronts.
Barring an overnight miracle, or the big kids deciding otherwise for the fate of our money; I fully expect to have to sit and grind through the day (Wednesday) to unload more of the equity side and related (HY/HI).
At this point tonight, looking to the morning should find Asia equities and likely Europe with a big head slap. The dollar remaining stronger, EM bonds down again and Treasury issues may give Bill Gross a case of the fits; as well as continued strength in other bonds of perceived safety. Sidenote: the U.S. remains the best equity sector, but I do not feel it will escape the mood of the moment.
One large saving grace(s) for Europe going forward is a further opening of the money gates of the ECB, forget about inflation for now and have full public display and cooperation from Germany. Otherwise......
Well,...........I may be totally off base with this proposal, but it is what I see right now.
Take care,
Catch

Nothing is moving on fundamentals. It's all fear and/or panic right now. We'll maybe have some quick, brief surges on particular data releases, but the Markets are scared. The "new normal" is not normal at all. It's the wall of worry, about Greece and the EU in general. Throw in China's slump. It's all short-sighted. The EU has too much at stake, after working ever since WW II to CREATE the EU, to let it fall apart. But the hard decisions have yet to be made. Some bunch of somebodys are going to have to swallow hard and write-off a big buncha losses. My own holdings are down from a recent high by just -2.48%. But I've been making a change or two, lately. I added to holdings last month. (Just in time for this downturn.) Dunno if I can trust that number. But anyway, no one's come as far as to steal and eat my lunch.
...And so, I figure the short-term traders will serve to SUPERFICIALLY ameliorate things here and there on a daily basis. Otherwise, I am convinced that we are in the midst of an era-long funk. I'm counting more and more on bond-dividends, rather than equity-capital-gains. Profits will not soon again be like those we saw in the go-go- 1990s.
Unfettered capitalism did this. But systems need people to run them. Big Business got too greedy, and government has been and continues to be in bed with BB. It's a recipe for awful-ness, like lasagne that comes out of the oven looking and tasting like bricks.