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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    Hard pass, no thank you.
    Said it on here a couple years ago, stated back then I wouldn't invest a dime in China and that was the right call.
    Why would you risk moving monies and investing in places where most couldn't pick them out on a map, don't have the same governance related to capital markets and rule of law and what exactly are you investing in other than some of kind of view on currency rates that you cannot invest in an American company and get the exposure that you are looking for?
    Maybe, just maybe I would invest in an overseas holding company like Jardine to get exposure to a large and growing population but even then, nah, probably not..
  • Emerging Markets Anyone?
    EM has been nothing but a black hole for me. Sold my two funds with relatively high EM holdings last year, and I’m sleeping better. My best performing EM fund (SFGIX) gained scarcely more than a mediocre bond fund in more than a decade of owning. Others fared even worse. (Eg, MAPIX) Mind you, various “experts” have been touting EM for many, many years — and they’ve been wrong. I don’t need to own any more investments that I might not live long enough to see gains.
  • January MFO is live
    Thank you, @Hank, for the kind words. This month, in "Patriotic Millionaires and the Uncertainty of Taxes", I show that the rich borrow and invest the money in stocks much as you described in ”New Report: All Stock Portfolio Beats Stock and Bond Mix Over Time (Originally From Bloomberg)”. The tax system allows the rich to withdraw their money at the lower capital gains rate which are not incurred until the stock is sold, and the "Stepped Up" basis benefits heirs.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/patriotic-millionaires-and-the-uncertainty-of-taxes/
    Those of us not in the "rich" category can still benefit. I have about 15% of my portfolio in after-tax accounts in a long-term investment bucket. In "No, The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead", I show that stock valuations are high so now is a good time to be more conservative.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2024/02/no-the-60-40-portfolio-is-not-dead/
    When valuations fall in the next one to three years, I plan on increasing the allocations to stocks in these after-tax accounts to maybe even 100% to take advantage of the lower capital gains that are not occurred until the stock is sold. I will use a variable withdrawal strategy to withdraw extra from Traditional IRAs (Bucket #2) when market conditions are favorable and put the funds in a short-term Bucket for living expenses for when market conditions are unfavorable.
    My article last month did not include taxes in some of the analysis. Having pensions and Social Security allows me to be less dependent upon withdrawing from savings. I will be adjusting my strategy based in part on the thoughtful insights in the MFO Discussion Board, and the research behind these articles.
  • Short Jim Cramer (SJIM) Shutting Down
    Tuttle Capital is an interesting firm. Never really knew if they were a serious investment manager or more mocking the market/retail investors.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    see page 8 results from 1990-2019...
    correction: see cash levels in 2020.
    Baseball Fan
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.

    Hopefully the link worked. if not just put in your browser.
    Marshfield equity composite from 2007-2020
    might give you a longer track insight as to performance....note cash levels at 23% in 2007...
    I've been following the fund a long time, did see Denis Baran's article a few years back and then invested when it became available on the Schwab platform..
    https://issuu.com/biglehart2016/docs/marshfield_associates_for_rbc_june_2020_equity_bro
  • rare long-form interview with primecap (about once every 5 years)
    This decision really depends on the individual investor.
    Actively managed funds may underperform the broader market
    for several consecutive years and returns could be "lumpy."
    For example, VPMAX lagged the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 indexes in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
    An investor incapable of tolerating subpar short-term performance could sell at an inopportune time.
    This individual would probably be better off investing in low-cost broad-based index funds.
    Having said that, I really like the Primecap management team and VPMAX in particular.
    A 30-year analysis (Jan. 1994 - Dec. 2023) of Vanguard PRIMECAP, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index,
    and Vanguard 500 Index can be referenced using the Portfolio Visualizer link below.
    Past performance is not indicative of future performance...
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=BCPJliOkim1OuHmlYERP6
  • rare long-form interview with primecap (about once every 5 years)
    This was a good interview where I learned more about the Primecap's team operations and philosophy.
    Thanks for posting!
    I completed a Vanguard survey earlier today and the firm apparently is considering reopening
    the Primecap and Capital Opportunity funds:
    "Vanguard is considering reopening a fund that has been closed or limited to certain investors for the last decade. Here is information about this fund: Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund – Capital Opportunity is an active, aggressive growth fund that invests in companies of all sizes across market cap (large, mid, & small) primarily in the US. The PRIMECAP manager expects that these companies will grow over time but may be volatile in the short-term."
    I own VPMAX and VPCCX but don't own VHCAX.
    Someone who owns only VHCAX reported that reopening VPMAX was mentioned in his Vanguard survey.
    The following survey question really piqued my interest:
    "Does the Vanguard PRIMECAP investment limit of $25,000 per year impact your investment decisions?"
    Well, yes it does.
    I'd exchange my entire VPCCX investment for VPMAX if Vanguard allowed it.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Baseball_Fan @JD_co Inimitable fund.
    @Dennis Baran Well, forced me to learn a new word today.
    It must be unique to have stayed slightly above the fray in both 2018 and 2022. "Concentrated" as per the Fund name, with only 16 -24 equity holdings. Beat the S&P over the past 8 year period (ITD) by 3% but with a lower SD. Low Cap Gains due to low turnover. Not available at Fido, but Schwab might offer it.
    A nice find.
  • 15 Funds That Have Destroyed the Most Wealth, M*
    I didn't find this article terribly informative.
    In ten years of a massive bull market with complacent investors and century low interest rates, of course, inverse funds and volatility futures are going to do badly. Most of her "stinkers" have done exactly what they are designed to do and rocketed up in the right situation. Look at TBT since 2020.
    A contrarians would say now is the time to buy, as M* does itself when pointing out that "unloved" fund categories outperform the next year.
    A much more useful article would have compared funds in categories and have pointed out the worst ones by catagory, and the reasons for their underperformance.
    Hussman made the "family" list which is kinda odd as his other funds, I think, are nowhere near as negative as HSGFX
  • NYCB: trouble. And knock-on effects for other regional banks
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/regional-bank-that-played-rescuer-in-2023-now-in-turmoil-163932844.html
    It got too big for its britches. "Trouble in River City." Dividend suspended. And after the Flagstar AND Signature Bank acquisitions, it must meet more stringent capital reserve requirements. The bank doubled its own size in two years. "Superior planning!" .... So this explains in large part why my own Regional Bank holding has fallen like a rock in the past couple of days. BHB. I had considered throwing some money at NYCB. Glad I did not do it.
    "...The stock of the Hicksville, N.Y.-based lender fell 46% Wednesday after it reported a surprise net loss of $252 million for the fourth quarter and announced a suspension of its dividend...The news sent new shockwaves through the regional banking world..."
  • Rice Hall James Small Cap Portfolio will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878719/000139834424001360/fp0086988-2_497.htm
    497 1 fp0086988-2_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND
    (the “Trust”)
    Rice Hall James Small Cap Portfolio
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated January 30, 2024 to the Fund’s Prospectus (the “Prospectus”), Summary Prospectus (the “Summary Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated March 1, 2023, as supplemented
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Rice Hall James & Associates, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about February 29, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Redeeming Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    RHJ-SK-011-0100
  • Garp ETF
    BTW,
    Prior to June 24, 2019, the fund tracked a Russell pure growth index (perhaps the opposite of GARP in growth context) under a different name and ticker (PXLG).
    Neither M*, nor Lipper, make a distinction on historical returns, as far as I can tell. I tend to think that events since January 2020 have offered a pretty good shakedown cruise.
  • Short Jim Cramer (SJIM) Shutting Down
    ”The Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (ticker SJIM), a fund that aimed to short stocks recommended by the bombastic TV personality, is poised to join its bullish sibling on the ETF scrapheap, it was announced Thursday. SJIM will stop trading Feb. 13, according to a press release. SJIM is closing five months after Tuttle Capital Management’s Long Cramer Tracker ETF (LJIM) was shuttered, with that fund — which bought the stocks Cramer recommended — garnering even fewer assets.  The product has managed to attract just $2.4 million in assets since its launch in March 2023. The inverse fund has lost 15% on a total return basis since its launch.”
    First Reported by Bloomberg
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramer-etfs-history-closure-173003904.html
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @MikeM and @Mark: I'm an adherent of the CG ETFs, also. CGGR, CGGO, and CGDV in three different family accounts. I never owned American MFs, probably because of loads, altho I do have access to Washington Mutual in my retirement account. Capital Group seems to know how to select effective teams.
    I like what Harbor Funds has done in the past in choosing outside managers for actively managed funds. With their ETF lineup, a Jennison Associates group runs WINN and a team of Europeans at CWorldWide Asset Management has OSEA. FWIIW, Harbor did not do well with MFs run by a single or star manager (such as Marsico). For ETFs following an index, it may be that a single person can handle the job.
    Are the CG ETFs transparent or non-transparent ETFs? Only if you know off hand. TIA
  • AlphaCentric SWBC Municipal Opportunities Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1355064/000158064224000502/swbc_497.htm
    MUTUAL FUND SERIES TRUST
    AlphaCentric SWBC Municipal Opportunities Fund
    Class A: MUNAX Class C: MUNCX Class I: MUNIX
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated January 26, 2024 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated August 1, 2023.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees of Mutual Fund Series Trust has concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on or about February 27, 2024 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective immediately, the Fund will not accept any new investments and may no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO FEBRUARY 27, 2024 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact the Fund at 1-844-223-8637.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, any Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information for the Fund, each dated August 1, 2023, as supplemented, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-844-223-8637 or by writing to 4221 North 203rd Street, Suite 100, Elkhorn, Nebraska 68022.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • M* JR on Covered-Calls, ELNs, SEC Yield, TR
    Option-income funds have been around for a long time, GATEX, 1977- ; GCPAX, 2014- . There have been several others.
    They didn't catch on until JPM put its marketing muscle behind its now humongous ETF JEPI, 2020- & its large variant JEPQ, 2022-. Their ERs are reasonable.
    But beware that many options-writing funds aren't cheap. So, if they achieve in an expensive way what allocations funds may achieve at lower costs, investors should ask questions. I think that is what M* JR did.
  • M* JR on Covered-Calls, ELNs, SEC Yield, TR
    People also forfeit capital growth by choosing bond or allocation funds.
  • M* JR on Covered-Calls, ELNs, SEC Yield, TR
    Full para by JR provides context for that statement on funds with high derivative-income:
    "Happily, the statistic of total return measures the entire package. It accounts not only for the moneys that derivative-income funds receive for surrendering potential capital growth but also for the extent to which that growth is forfeited. If the latter exceeds the former, derivative-income funds are merely a parlor trick. Investors who seek upfront cash would be better off purchasing a conventional fund and then periodically selling its shares. In that fashion, they could duplicate the derivative-income funds’ ongoing payouts while achieving a higher future return."
  • Down Market Strategies
    I have found inverse funds helpful for taxable accounts when selling would trigger large gains, and to damp down volatility when things go really south. Of course when they go wat up ( 2008 and 2020), I can never sell them at the top so it usually is a round trip.
    I am rereading Taleb's Black Swan and "Fooled by Randomness" both highly recommended. A recent book "Chaos Kings" details how Taleb and other guys make money during crashes, usually with deep out of the money puts, I guess. Some of the ideas mentioned in the book pay off huge profits if the drops are severe enough.
    The author of Chaos Kings says "finally there is a similar product for retail investors " and says it is SPD an ETF from Simplicity designed to capture downside convexity.
    When I checked, SPD lost 19% in 2022, presumably because of the decline in the treasury collaterals. They also have another hedged ETF CYA ( what a sense of humor!) that is hard to figure as it lost 50% in a three day period in October ( early in the week).
    I was going to talk to them about this stuff when I get a minute. Simplicity is a pretty sharp group of option guys whose specialty is custom ETFs with complex strategies.
    Another idea I haven't used but maybe someone else has are the new "buffered" ETFs.
    Now interest rates are back up it is simpler and probably more profitable to use short term treasuries