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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Equity Side of Portfolio Now in Rebalance Mode ... Reducing Equity
    Hi PhilPil,
    On your rebalancing inquiry: This is a reduction in equity only and I am not trying to rebalance each fund held.
    Rebalancing is very simple as I reduce my position in some or eliminate the entire position. Take the Growth Area, Domestic Large Mid, it use to have six funds in that area. In a prior rebalance, I eliminated AMCPX when I reduced equities that I held in my 401k. This go I’ll be getting into some of the other areas although I’ll be giving AGTHX a sizable lick since it is one of my larger positions; and, it will get trimmed but not eliminated. Most likely, some funds in the Growth & Income Area will get trimmed too; but, we will have to get to 1575 to 1600 in the near terms before I venture into this area.
    I listed the A share class for each fund owned which is ok for me tracking what I have. However, in my 401k, for instance, I hold other share classes for the respective funds listed, I think most of them are R shares.
    I’ll do most of the rebalance process in the 401k and my IRA as this will avoid paying taxes on the gains harvested. I do like making the health savings account grow. So, I most likley will not be doing any reductions or cutting its sole holding which is a balanced fund.
    It is really not that hard to do ... The hardest part is to pick the funds to trim from or even eliminate. And, I have already selected AGTHX to reduce its size as it is the largest position in the Growth Area, Domestic Large Mid.
    Skeeter
  • When It's Ok To Plunder A 401(k) Before You Retire
    Reply to @Anna:
    I think there are two different question here. One is borrowing vs. withdrawing, and the other is withdrawing vs. suspending. I'll assume for the sake of argument that a withdrawal is covered by one of the penalty exceptions (e.g. first home), so that all that one would owe is ordinary taxes on the withdrawal.
    To take your question first - suspend vs. withdraw. Yes, in that case, the two situations are the same. If one contributes, say, $400 to a 401K and then withdraws it, then one sees $400 reduction in income (due to the contribution), but also $400 in extra income (due to the withdrawal). These cancel out, and it's as if you didn't contribute at all, i.e. the same effect as suspending. Notice that we didn't even have to assume anything about tax brackets here.
    But borrowing comes out better than withdrawing (or suspending, which we've just seen, is equivalent to withdrawing). That's because you have the ability to put borrowed money back into a sheltered account. You lose that ability if you withdraw money.
    If you withdraw money, then you pay taxes on it, say 25%. So if you withdraw $400, you pay $100 in taxes and have $300 to use. When you pay yourself back, you've got $300 in a taxable account. Say that the money doubles by the time you retire. You've got $600, but a tax liability on the gain of $300. You'll owe at least $45 in taxes (15% cap gains rate).
    On the other hand, suppose you borrowed $300 (leaving $100 in the 401k). When you pay back the loan, you'll have the original $400 in the 401K. Again, say that the money doubles by the time you retire. The 401K now has $800 in it. You withdraw the money and pay 25% in taxes ($200). You're left with $600. Notice that here we did need to assume same tax bracket in retirement.
    [ It turns out that this is the same logic that is used to show that contributing to a Roth is better than contributing pre-tax assuming one maxes out. If one doesn't max out and if tax rates don't change, then pre- and post-tax contributions come out the same. ]
    But there are other factors to consider. As the article points out, if you borrow against a 401K and then leave a job, you have to repay the loan quickly, else it is treated as a withdrawal (which could push you into a higher tax bracket, voiding all the calculations above).
    Also, I wrote about borrowing against a 401K and not an IRA because one cannot borrow from an IRA. (One can "touch" IRA money for 60 days before returning it as a rollover - even to the same IRA - but I figure that's not the type of "loan" we're talking about here.)
  • Any alternatives to Marsico Flexible Capital Fund?
    We sold our position in HAFLX on the day after learning that it would be liquidated. I have been tracking MFCFX (ER 1.43%) since the new managers took over on 7/20/12. If I were to re-enter this fund, I would buy the lower cost CCMZX (ER 1.25%), which is available at Scottrade for a $100 minimum in taxable and retirement accounts with no TF.
    We own PVSYX which may also invest across a company's capital structure like MFCFX, although it targets leveraged companies. PVSYX is multicap with a much lower average market cap than the LCG MFCFX. So PVSYX is not a direct substitute for MFCFX.
    Kevin
  • Any alternatives to Marsico Flexible Capital Fund?
    Marsico Flexible Capital Fund (MFCFX) is unique in terms of being large growth oriented but with the ability to go defensive. A lot of people left the fund when Doug Rao left. I am curious if anyone has identified a good substitute for it? One option is LSWWX but I haven't come across any others. I'm also curious if anyone has ventured back into MFCFX? It is puzzling that, even when Rao was on the fund, the fund was unable to gather a lot of assets in spite of performing well.
    Thanks in advance,
    BWG
  • 'Target' Funds Still Missing The Mark On Returns Even As Their Popularity Surges Among Investors
    I wonder what "mark" they're missing?
    The article focuses on 2015 Date funds. It makes one interesting observation: since 2009, their target asset-allocation has decreased from 49% to 40%. As market-timing generally goes, that was a poorly timed though the article offers no particular evidence that a 40% allocation is inappropriate for someone within a couple years of retirement.
    Their other argument, about returns, strikes me as silly. In 2012, funds with this target date made 10.6%, only 66% of the S&P 500's return. Uhhh ... they had only 40% exposure to the stock market but generated 66% of its gains? On face, that seems like exceeding the mark by a lot.
    The difference isn't made up for by their bond allocation alone since the bond aggregate rose just 4% last year. On average, 40% stocks/60% bonds should have led to a portfolio return of 8.8% but these guys managed 10.6%.
    David
  • Matthews Asia Strategic Income: conference call highlights and mp3
    Dear friends,
    We spent an hour on Tuesday, January 22, talking with Teresa Kong of Matthews Asia Strategic Income. The fund is about 14 months old, has about $40 million in assets, returned 13.6% in 2012 and 11.95% since launch (through Dec. 31, 2012).
    Here's the offsite link to an .mp3 of the whole call: 78449.choruscall.com/dataconf/productusers/mfo/media/mfo130122.mp3
    I'd be delighted to hear what other folks consider some of the highlights. My list includes:
    1. this is designed to offer the highest risk-adjusted returns of any of the Matthews funds. In this case "risk-adjusted" is measured by the fund's Sharpe ratio. Since launch, its Sharpe ratio has been around 2.0 which would be hard for any fixed-income fund to maintain indefinitely. They've pretty comfortable that they can maintain a Sharpe of 1.0 or so.
    2. the manager describes the US bond market, and most especially Treasuries, as offering "asymmetric risk" over the intermediate term. Translation: more downside risk than upside opportunity. She does not embrace the term "bubble" because that implies an explosive risk (i.e., "popping") where she imagines more like the slow leak of air out of a balloon. (Thanks for Joe N for raising the issue.)
    3. given some value in having a fixed income component of one's portfolio, Asian fixed-income offers two unique advantages in uncertain times. First, the fundamentals of the Asian fixed-income market - measures of underlying economic growth, market evolution, ability to pay and so on - are very strong. Second, Asian markets have a low beta relative to US intermediate-term Treasuries. If, for example, the 5-year Treasury declines 1% in value, U.S. investment grade debt will decline 0.7%, the global aggregate index 0.5% and Asia fixed-income around 0.25%.
    4. MAINX is one of the few funds to have positions in both dollar-denominated and local currency Asian debt (and, of course, equities as well). She argues that the dollar-denominated debt offers downside protection in the case of a market disruption since the panicked "flight to quality" tends to benefit Treasuries and linked instruments while local currency debt might have more upside in "normal" markets. (Jeff Wang's question, I believe.)
    5. in equities, Matthews looks for stocks with "bond-like characteristics." They target markets where the dividend yield in the stock market exceeds the yield on local 10-year bonds. Taiwan is an example. Within such markets, they look for high yielding, low beta stocks and tend to initiate stock positions about one-third the size of their initial bond positions. A new bond might come in at 200 basis points while a new stock might be 75. (Thanks to Dean for raising the equities question and Charles for noticing the lack of countries such as Taiwan in the portfolio.)
    6. most competitors don't have the depth of expertise necessary to maximize their returns in Asia. Returns are driven by three factors: currency, credit and interest rates. Each country has separate financial regimes. There is, as a result, a daunting lot to learn. That will lead most firms to simply focus on the largest markets and issuers. Matthews has a depth of expertise that allows them to do a better job of dissecting markets and of allocating resources to the most profitable part of the capital structure (for example, they're open to buying Taiwanese equity but find its debt market to be fundamentally unattractive). There was an interesting moment when Teresa, former head of BlackRock's emerging markets fixed-income operations, mused, "even a BlackRock, big as we were, I often felt we were a mile wide and [pause] ... not as deep as I would have preferred." The classic end of the phrase, of course, is "and an inch deep." That's significant since BlackRock has over 10,000 professionals and about $1.4 trillion in assets under management.
    We'll work on an updated profile (written and audio) for February.
    If other folks could offer either amendments or additions, I'd be grateful for your impressions.
    As ever,
    David
  • Structured Notes Offer To-Good-To-Be True Returns
    Private banks are stuffing structured products into client portfolios wherever the banks have discretionary authority to purchase these notes on behalf of clients – without explaining the risks and without obtaining specific client consent to these opaque, high risk, conflict-ridden investments.
    If you’ve ever wondered how the major structured note issuers are able to move such massive amounts of highly-complex debt no customer could possibly understand, let alone ask for, now you have your answer. According to published reports, banks and Wall Street brokers sold more than $50 billion of structured products in 2010 alone. For the period January- November 2010, J.P. Morgan was rated as the fourth Top Seller in structured product retail sales, with $4.21 billion in sales and 9% market share.
    My investigations nationally reveal that private banks today typically invest around 15% of client portfolios in structures issued, or underwritten, by the banks themselves.
    Look to pay fees in excess of 2% to purchase and an additional 1% to exit these roach motels. Structured investments are not subject to any uniform standards and transparency as to pricing, valuation and fees is profoundly lacking.
    Private bank clients aren’t clamoring for this junk. Most clients don’t even know what a structured product is, or that their assets are being invested in so-called structures. Holdings such as DB 95% PPN FX BASKET 1/25/13 LNKED or BARC 95% PPN EM FX BASKET 5/23/12 LNKE mysteriously appear on the account statements private banks provide to their clients. What client could make sense of those listings?
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsiedle/2012/06/07/private-banks-stuff-structured-notes-into-discretionary-accounts-deny-fiduciary-responsibility/
    Demonic Structured Notes Haunt Church Portfolios
    Where a bank serves as trustee of an endowment or foundation portfolio, I have observed that structured notes issued or underwritten by the bank are most likely to be found in abundance. If the complexity and risk related to structured notes weren’t daunting enough, you’d think banks would consider conflicts of interest and self-dealing sufficient reason to avoid recommending them to fiduciary accounts. I can only conclude that the worldly profits derived from selling these products are compelling.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsiedle/2011/08/03/demonic-structured-notes-haunt-church-portfolios/
    Forget investing, Wall Street is a marketing and sales machine. They’ve developed a real stinker of a product that at first glimpse appears like the answers to your prayers but really is just one more way Wall streets is going to separate you from your money.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/11/30/structured-notes-buyers-be-warned/
    Wall Street banks have rightly earned a bad rep for their disreputable behavior. Attracting assets under management then proceeding to enrich themselves with client's capital at the client's expense, predators and their prey, seems endemic and systemic to the financial services industry, mutual fund complex included.
  • The Importance Of Tax-Efficient Investing
    Reply to @ron:
    The absence of capital gains tax for those in the 15% tax bracket wouldn't seem to change the suggestion to keep securities generating LTCGs in a taxable account. It just makes the suggestion even stronger.
    On the other hand (for the 1 percenters), there's no mention of the Medicare surtax. That tax weakens the argument for keeping any securities that spin off income in taxable accounts (e.g. one might try to avoid fund that pay qualified dividends in taxable accounts).
    It is curious that Schwab suggests keeping Series I savings bonds in taxable accounts, but makes no mention of Series EE savings bonds.
  • The Importance Of Tax-Efficient Investing
    No mention of no capital gains or taxes for those in 15% tax bracket again in 2013.
  • Limited ER reduction for SFGIX/SIGIX
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 15, 2013 TO THE PROSPECTUS FOR SEAFARER OVERSEAS GROWTH AND INCOME FUND (THE “FUND”) DATED AUGUST 31, 2012.
    Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC (“Seafarer”), the Fund’s investment adviser, has voluntarily agreed to waive a portion of its management fee and waive and/or reimburse certain other Fund fees or expenses. This voluntary agreement . . . continues until August 31, 2013.
    [The following language was added to the prospectus]:
    In addition to the Adviser’s agreement to contractually waive and/or reimburse fees or expenses as described above, the Adviser has voluntarily agreed to [reduce management fees] to 0.75% . . . . Further, after giving effect to this voluntary agreement to waive a portion of its management fee, the Adviser has also agreed to voluntarily . . . limit total annual fund operating expenses (excluding acquired fund fees and expenses, brokerage expenses, interest expenses, taxes and extraordinary expenses) to 1.40% and 1.25% of . . . for the Investor and Institutional share classes, respectively. The Adviser intends to continue these voluntary arrangements through at least August 31, 2013 . . . , at which point they may be extended further. However, the Adviser may reduce or terminate these voluntary arrangements at any time without notice.
  • A Periodic Table of Returns Bonanza
    Hi Guys
    Callan Associates just published their annual update of the Callan Periodic Table of Returns (PTR). It now includes complete data for 2012. Their checkerboard color scheme allows for a quick assessment of market returns for an expanding list of investment categories.
    The current release now incorporates 20 years worth of returns data for 9 investment categories. That’s a slight increase in data sets and longevity when contrasted against its first publication in this arena. For example, Callan now includes Emerging Market returns in their assembled data. Also, Callan has a publicity incentive to be the first among their competitors to update the market Tables. More power to them.
    The Callan Link follows immediately:
    http://www.callan.com/research/download/?file=periodic/free/655.pdf
    It’s a standalone lesson by itself to scan the various asset categories, and see the up and down volatility in class reward ranking each year. Betting on last year’s winner is a loser’s game. Performance persistence is ephemeral. In many instances a top performer becomes the dregs of the earth the following year, and the reverse is equally likely. An investment category regression to the mean seems to be an empirical ironclad law. Trees do not grow to the sky.
    The Periodic Table of Returns field is not solely occupied by Callan. Other investment houses offer both direct competing products and other versions of the Table that feature more focused data sets. I thought you might enjoy and will definitely benefit from exploring these alternate presentations. Most of the Links that I will reference have not yet made their 2012 returns data updates.
    I personally treasure the Allianz Global Investors version that covers slightly different category groupings beyond the Callan work. For example, Allianz shows historic Real Estate performance; Real Estate holdings are part of my portfolio. Here is a Link to the Allianz product:
    http://www.allianzinvestors.com/MarketingPrograms/External Documents/The_Importance_Of_Diversification_ACO33.pdf
    Note that Allianz updates their PTR data sets more frequently (like quarterly) than their competitors do. Also Allianz incorporates a broader universe of investment classes within their presentation.
    I feel we’re on a mission now. Here is a Link that summarizes Sector returns (from State Street Global Advisors) in the same format as the Callan presentation:
    https://www.spdrs.com/library-content/public/US Sector Periodic Table of Returns 01.2012.pdf
    Also, let’s explore commodity performance in the PTR spirit. Here is a functional Link to that somewhat dated data source from U.S. Global Investors:
    http://www.usfunds.com/research/the-periodic-table-of-commodity-returns/
    Tired yet? If so, you might forgo visiting the following Link (hosted by Boomerang Capital) that summarizes Hedge Fund rewards using the increasingly familiar PTR perspective:
    http://boomcap.com/periodic/Periodic Table 2012-08.pdf
    Plenty of style variety among slick Hedge Fund operators which generates a wide speculative performance record. And these data likely only reflect survivors and those who choose to report. Observe that this Hedge Fund summary is policy-wise updated on a monthly cycle, but, practically was last revised about 6 months ago.
    I hope you examine these sundry data sources. They will serve to inform and guide your portfolio investment decisions. One caveat: I have only used Callan and Allianz regularly; therefore I can not vouch for the accuracy of several Links that I referenced.
    Note the transient character of the returns and the instability within the dynamic rankings. Not much remains constant. Behavioral research scientists claim we are pattern seeking folks. Often we see patterns when none exist, which leads to bad decisions.
    I suppose the good news here is that I do not see patterns within these referenced data sets. For me, they are a chaotic jumble without any plausible coherence. If you perceive a pattern within this enigmatic mess, “you’re a better man than I am, Gunga Din”. The other side of that coin is that you might be falling into the pattern recognition trap identified by the behavioral wiz-kids.
    Convergent Wealth Advisors has a particularly attractive PTR presentation that provides a nice summary of asset class performance for 5-year, 10-year, 15-year, and 20-year measurement periods. The raw rankings might surprise or perhaps inspire you. Here is my final Link:
    http://www.convergentwealth.com/sites/default/files/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/2011-Q4-CWA-Periodic-Table.pdf
    These PTR surveys are addictive. I visit them several times every year. They might even prove to be helpful to everyone. I hope so.
    Enjoy these numerous and informative PTRs. Many others with easy access that I have not mentioned in this posting are readily available to anyone inclined to search just a little.
    There are not many verities that last in the investment universe. It is a dynamic world with a shortening time constant. I am astonished what incongruent interpretations are made of the PTR data sets. I have attended several investment seminars where the PTRs were used (falsely) to illustrate some fleeting momentum principle. In other workshops, they were used to backstop the need for diversity. I support this latter interpretation. Investing is often a wild ride with abrupt upsets, collisions, and detours. Diversification tames that ride.
    Vigilance is the price of maintaining a portfolio. From the Bible, Prov 27:23, we read that “Riches can disappear fast. And the king's crown doesn't stay in his family forever-so watch your business interests closely. Know the state of your flocks and your herds”. That’s actionable lasting advice.
    Wealth diversification is a subject the Bible addresses in several passages. For example, Solomon offered this advice in Ecclesiates 11:2 : “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on earth”. So the Bible championed the need to diversify your wealth centuries before Baron Rothschild recommended that same commonsense strategy in his famous quote to divide your holdings into three major asset classes for both hard-time and uncertainty protection.
    As a sidebar, a few financial advisors, with a strong religious-based belief system, justify and endorse the Lazy-Man portfolio array monitored by MarketWatch curmudgeon Paul Farrell by referencing Solomon’s 8-piece admonishment and caution. They equate the 8-biblical pieces to a portfolio assembled with 8 investment asset classes.
    Actually, the numerous Lazy-Man portfolios have much more going for them (cost containment, long term commitment, world wide diversification, delivery of historic market returns) than a tenuous allusion to Solomon’s wisdom. An internationally diversified holdings set can cut overall portfolio volatility in half while retaining expected returns at a constant level. Although correlation coefficients are never perfectly zero or negative, and are never perfectly constant over time, they always contribute to a lowering of portfolio volatility. That’s in the direction of goodness.
    I wish you all happy, trouble-free, and profitable investing.
    Best Regards.
  • Four Funds for a Lifetime
    Hi again MJG. Thanks for good words of encouragement...a lot of this stuff is your doing!
    Hey, my bad for not reiterating on this post, but the results presented here are based on life-time only performance from fund inception date, similar to the way results were presented in the Funds That Beat The Market thread.
    Each timeframe that you examined yielded a different array of “winning” mutual funds. Performance persistence was never established.
    Funds from the older age groups were not included in the rankings of the funds from the younger age groups. So, they were not competed, as you say.
    That's actually my next project...persistence!
    I suspect though that funds like Sequoia SEQUX and T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX may do pretty well. Both are seasoned funds, but with recent accolades.
    Until then...
    PS. I like the Ulcer Index too...my kind of no-nonsense risk measure.
  • If it ain't broke, why fix it?
    It's been real fun, profitable, and most of all tranquil cruising with close to 100% in PONDX and before that for many years it was pretty much all Junkland for me. I like to concentrate with whatever is working best but enough is enough. Today the Dow Transports joined a slew of other indexes recently making all time historic highs ala the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index and the S&P 400 Mid Cap index. Think I will *gingerly* (like around 4%) try some of those derivative driven equity funds at PIMCO such as PCKDX and then build further from there if the market cooperates. I don't need to be reminded I could well be the last one on-board the equity train so will use a 3% to 5% mental exit point.
    Edit: I should mention I am an elderly old man who while not rich is more than comfortable and doesn't any longer need the stress of hyper-active fund allocation and most of all drawdown of my capital. I would much prefer being on the trails hiking, running, and climbing mountains.
  • Mutual Funds Have Little Place in a Portfolio: Bogle
    warning signs for treasuries
    http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/Two-Warning-Signs-For-Treasuries-us/1/14/2013/id/47292
    rbc weekly commentaries
    Market Week: January 14, 2013
    The Markets
    Equities didn't match the prior week's fireworks, but they still posted gains in the new year's second week. The S&P 500 hit a five-year high for the second week in a row. However, the Global Dow soundly beat all four domestic indices for the week, in part because of encouraging retail sales in Europe.
    Market/Index 2012 Close Prior Week As of 1/11 Week Change YTD Change
    DJIA 13104.14 13435.21 13488.43 .40% 2.93%
    Nasdaq 3019.51 3101.66 3125.63 .77% 3.51%
    S&P 500 1426.19 1466.47 1472.05 .38% 3.22%
    Russell 2000 849.35 879.15 880.77 .18% 3.70%
    Global Dow 1995.96 2051.22 2075.84 1.20% 4.00%
    Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
    10-year Treasuries 1.78% 1.93% 1.89% -4 bps 11 bps
    Equities data reflect price changes, not total return.
    Last Week's Headlines
    President Obama nominated White House chief of staff Jacob Lew to replace Timothy Geithner as Secretary of the Treasury.
    Increased imports of consumer goods such as smart phones were a key factor in widening the trade deficit in November. Exports also rose, but not by as much, according to the Commerce Department. As a result, the trade deficit rose 16% to $48.7 billion.
    Ten mortgage servicers agreed to pay $8.5 billion to help resolve mortgage foreclosures that have been under review for faulty processing. The agreement, which will provide $5.2 billion in mortgage assistance and $3.3 billion in direct payments to borrowers, will bring to an end the case-by-case review of faulty foreclosures. In addition to participating in the settlement, Bank of America agreed to pay $10 billion to Fannie Mae to resolve allegations of faulty processing.
    Eurozone unemployment hit a new record of 11.8% in November as 113,000 workers lost their jobs. However, European retail sales were up for the first time since July.
    The Federal Reserve turned over to the U.S. Treasury almost $77 billion in profits from its 2012 quantitative easing efforts. The interest on Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities provided the Treasury's second highest windfall from the Fed, behind only 2010's $79 billion.
    After its deliberations were made public, insurer American International Group (AIG) decided not to join a $25 billion lawsuit filed by former CEO Maurice Greenberg and other shareholders against the U.S. Treasury. That suit claims that the terms of the Treasury's $182 billion bailout of AIG, which has since been repaid, were too onerous.
    Eye on the Week Ahead
    Earnings reports, particularly those from key financial institutions, will join inflation, retail, and housing data as grist for investor decisions.
    Key dates and data releases: wholesale inflation, retail sales, business inventories, Empire State manufacturing survey (1/15); consumer inflation, industrial production, Fed "beige book" report, international capital flows (1/16); housing starts, Philly Fed manufacturing survey (1/17).
  • A Look at Risk Adjusted Returns

    A recent thread by hank, catch22, bee, MikeM, and Investor got me thinking about risk adjusted returns. Here is a link to their discussion: How To Calculate Risk-Adjusted Rate of Return.
    With same database of oldest share class fund performance from Funds That Beat The Market, I ranked funds by Sharpe, Sortino, and Martin (or so-called Ulcer Performance) indices then compared against relative APR rankings.
    For this comparison, Sharpe is defined as fund annualized percentage return (APR) minus 90-day TBill APR divided by fund annualized standard deviation STDEV, all over the same period, which is lifetime of fund (or back to January 1962). Here is the formula used:
    image
    Sortino is same as Sharpe except its denominator is the annualized downside deviation, which only uses monthly returns falling below TBill average, as shown here:
    image
    Finally, Martin, which uses same numerator as Sharpe and Sortino, excess return relative to TBill, but it uses the Ulcer Index (UI) for the denominator, which is the square root of the mean of the squared percentage draw downs in value. Here is link to good article: Ulcer Index - An Alternative Approach to the Measurement of Investment Risk & Risk-Adjusted Performance. Here is how I applied its formula:
    image
    OK, a few comparisons that I found insightful:
    image
    Mutual Shares Z MUTHX is the top performer in APR relative to SP500 and tops all risk adjusted return (RAR) indices in the 50 year equity category. Still, in 2008, it drew down 38%, just like the SP500. American Funds American A AMRMX, on the other hand, one of top three funds picked up by Martin Ratio had a more tempered loss. All top RAR funds in this category in fact had hefty losses in 2008, except AMRMX.
    image
    Here's an example where I think RAR indices really tell the story. Fidelity Magellan FMAGX has best life time APR, but it loses to Sequoia SEQUX in every RAR category. SEQUX produced only a moderate draw down in 2008. Of course, SEQUX may be the best mutual fund of all time...and it shows in the RAR indices.
    image
    The stark comparison between First Eagle Global A SGENX and Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv VWINX is another good example of the power of RAR indices. In fact, every top performer in this modest asset allocation class suffered losses of more than 20% in 2008, except VWINX, which has highest Sharpe, Sortino, and Martin ratios, as well as lowest downside deviation and Ulcer Index.
    image
    Ditto here for the 30 year equity category. While Fidelity Select Health Care FSPHX produced the highest returns relative to SP500, Mutual Quest Z MQIFX would be my fund of choice, topping all RAR indices. It is the only top fund that lost less than 30% in 2008 - notice its DSDEV and UI values are also lowest.
    image
    Berwyn Income BERIX is top risk adjusted performer over Bruce BRUFX...and T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation PRWCX, Morningstar's top allocation fund this year, does well also.
    image
    Finally, here is an example that shows how RARs can be too protective. Gabelli ABC AAA GABCX certainly takes top honors for risk adjusted returns in the 15 year equity category, but it also produced low absolute returns.
    Some takeaways:
    - Risk adjusted performance indices can indeed provide stark distinctions in fund selection, especially for those sensitive to downside risk.
    - Sortino and Martin indices are most reflective of downside risk, but Sharpe nonetheless is better than just looking at APR.
    - A limitation to RAR indices is that they are useful only in relative sense, since their absolute values change with market. Their utility is in comparing funds over same time period.
    - Top performing RAR funds may under perform in absolute returns, and worse, they can still have substantial down years.

  • The Great Rotation is already in progress??
    Until the Fed stops buying $85 Billion worth of 10 year treasuries and mortgages back securities interest rates on these securities will have downward pressure. This, along with the fact that the world still views these securities as a "flight to safety" makes them an interesting investment in my mind. On the other side of the argument are the eventual interest rate pendulum (raising rates), the potential for a down grade in US soviegn debt issues and the economic recovery (lower unemployment).
    For Treasury investments I use two zero coupon bond mutual funds managed by American Century that mature in 2025 and 2020. Also EDV (Vaguard's Long Duration Treasuries) gives a similar Treasury dynamic in a EFT investment with an even longer maturity. They seem like good yang investments to the overall equity market when it yings upward.
    Charted below is VTI (Total US Market) along with BTTRX. Allocating to both a broad market equity fund (like VTI) and a Zero Coupon Bond Fund (like BTTRX) in different percentages (90%/10%, 80%/20%, 70%/30%, etc.) could be one way to manage through the ups and downs of the market. Take profits...reallocate....take profits...reallocate. I like to use 5% trigger for a fund like BTTRX and 10% for a ETF like VTI.
    image
  • Funds for my Roth at Fidelity
    Howdy DPN,
    You note:
    I feel like it is a little on the aggressive side but I have about 20+ years to go so I am okay right now
    A quick blip for my inflation adjusted 2 cents worth. If you add FUSEX, you will be adding to the aggressive side; at least relative to U.S. large cap equity. I don't think that FBIDX is going to add a lot to your wealth; although this fund/area will offer downside protection if equity markets go south, which would be its value and perhaps a +4%/year.
    Cousins of the equity market that you could add within Fidelity would be FAGIX, Fido's most aggressive of its high yield bond sector; aggressive, meaning this fund usually holds higher risk junk bonds. SPHIX, also high yield bonds, but is a less aggressive (generally higher quality junk bonds) fund. Both have decent long term returns and will likely continue to do well; as long as the equity sector remains in place/sideways or upward. Another high yield bond fund to review would be FGHNX, which has also performed well. Although a relatively new offering from Fido, the lead manager is John Carlson; who is the manager of the highly regarded FNMIX, emerging markets bond fund. These would give you more exposure to other bond styles not in your mix.
    As to the equity side for your cash, and in the moderate arena; you mentioned FBALX which is more in the mode of a 60/40 equity-bond mix and has a decent record. You may want to look at VILLX and/or MAPOX in the balanced area too; and available within Fido. This fund (VILLX), has a better performance record against FBALX; but will cost $75 in transaction fees and .4% more in expense ratio versus FBALX.
    Or, you could add to you FSDIX holdings and get a bit more equity exposure; as well as some other sectors, which may not be in your other equity/bond holdings.
    ---FSDIX income first, then capital appreciation, 2.5% yield, 50% equity (80% large cap, 20% mid/small cap), 15% REITs, 11% convertible securities and 20% preferred stocks. Largest equity exposure (last report) = Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, Verizon, P&G, Pfizer, Microsoft, J&J, Merck, Simon properties and Coca-Cola.
    Note: I lean towards the preservation of capital, in order to continue the most important area of investing; and that is to gather compounding of one's monies over the years. However, we all have to also establish our own risk/reward basis. Our house is retired, so our risk/reward will not be the same as yours; although we still must plan for another 20 years of positive investment returns, too.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Mutual Funds That Beat The Market - Part 3 (Asset Allocation)
    Hi Ted. I know what you mean. Eric Cinnamond has 49% in cash and his fund ARIVX charges 1.42% ER. My only defense is that we pay folks like Cinnamond and Redleaf to assess markets and effectively time our investments, as active fund managers.
    If WBMIX gets it right, that equities (and cash vs bonds) are place to be right now, then I have no problem with its fee and high allocation to SPY.
    Here's quote from Whitebox Fund's most recent commentary:
    Today, lots of people worry that stock prices are being artificially boosted by the excess liquidity created by the Fed. We don’t think that is true. The vectors of capital flows don’t support the idea that excess Fed dollars are going into stocks. So we don’t see stocks collapsing when the Fed takes away the money. Rather we see stocks eventually benefitting from a coming realignment of supply and demand.
    But if they get it wrong, your critique will be spot-on.
  • Using allocation and balanced funds in a portfolio
    Hello. An interesting topic. The lone "balanced" or "allocation" fund I hold which includes both stocks and bonds in its portfolio is MAPOX, from Mairs & Power, out of St. Paul... M* rates it with "average" risk for its category, but with "high" returns and a "below-average" ER of 0.79%. I've owned it only since last Spring. Right now, it represents only 3.24% of my portfolio, but I'm still re-investing all dividends and cap. gains from ALL of my funds. However, it has become a yearly tradition to "raid" one of our non-tax-sheltered funds---MACSX--- in order to share some happiness with relatives over in Asia, just after the New Year.
    I would like it if the size of my MAPOX holding was bigger than it is, in proportion to my other stuff. Portfolio "construction" for us has been a matter of working through obstacles and hoops and detours through the years. It used to be that I held almost all mutual fund shares in a Trad. IRA or a 403b..... Now there's no more 403b, I rolled it over. And it's a good thing to be able to report that, having maxed-out my IRA contrib. for 2012 at $6,000.00, I was "forced" to take a bunch of new money and use it to open regular, taxable accounts. I chose not to just "sit" on the cash.
  • Our Funds Boat, Week + .53%, YTD + .48% ....."WHAT-ever!", 1-12-13
    Howdy,
    A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
    For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week. The perspectives and investments are based, not upon a formal economic studies background; but from the "School of Hard Knocks & Studies", in which, we are still enrolled.
    NOTE: This portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
    While looking around....."WHAT-ever!" If this house had a $100 bill for every time we have had this phrase over this past few years; especially from the "tweens and teens". But, as to real situations with investing; "whatever" does apply relative to one's basket of investments, still relative to the risk/reward, needs and wants of the investor.
    Your investment dollars enter at point A, bottom center, out of view; choose your tracks; and exit at point B, top center, for travel into the land of happy returns.
    Now that you have finished that task, don't forget to continue to do this; in case your travel package wasn't totally what you expected; and you may then be prepared to choose other tracks.
    Now, that was easy, eh?; ya, right!
    The Millionaire Next Door, 1996 A book we always give as an extra wedding present. Investment book lists have been placed, here at MFO, previously; but if one can not properly control their spending and budget habits, there may be little money to invest and not much need for investment books. Some of the data and numbers used in the book will be out of date; but not the main thrust, "spending and debt habits, may eat one alive". Ages old bad habits, continuing to cause problems for many today.
    As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varying degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = +.41%, YTD +2.2%).
    --- U.S. equity - .4% through + 1.0%, week avg. = + .4% YTD = + 3.4%
    --- Int'l equity - 1.7% through + 1.9%, week avg. = + .5% YTD = + 1.9%
    --- Select eq. sectors - .6% through + 2.8%, week avg. = + .6% YTD = + 3.7%
    --- U.S./Int'l bonds - .3% through + 1.0%, week avg. = +24 .67% YTD = - .22%
    --- HY bonds - .8% through + .8%, week avg. = + .20% YTD = + .66%
    A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
    You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
    I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
    SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE
    Portfolio Thoughts: Our holdings had a + .53 % move this past week. EM bonds continue to be weak from early Dec., 2012, averaging -2% since then. The past week found some recovery in the IG bond area; TIPs, gov't. and corporate issues; although most of these areas remain negative for the year. High yield bonds continue to find strength; as well as multisector and specialty (steroid) bond funds. As to our equity entrance watch; well, new 5 year and 52 week highs are everywhere. Watch is what we will do for now; at least for pure equity funds adventures. We'll either miss a continued equity run for months to come; or find a better entry point within the next 2 month period. We can't imagine some of the big players not taking some profits, if; equities hit a 10% return point in the next several weeks. The algo machines will be counting, watching and waiting for the signal.
    We'll continue to watch; and do have plans, at this time, to add some equity this year, 2013. Our current short list, not in any order, of equity fund watches include: PAUDX, PAAIX, MAPIX, MACSX, SFGIX, GPGIX, FMIJX, FTIEX, FBALX, FTEMX, FEDDX, FIREX, FJPNX, FSVLX, FSDIX, FPURX, FLPSX, FGHNX, PMZDX as well as some other Pimco funds, as PSTDX, etc.
    Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies.
    --- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
    --- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
    --- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
    --- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various equity/bond sectors.
    The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
    I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
    The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
    Bloomberg Balanced
    Bloomberg Flexible
    These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
    Conservative Allocation
    Moderate Allocation
    A reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
    ***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
    VWINX .... + .21% week, YTD = + 1.08%
    PRPFX .... - .33% week, YTD = + .86%
    SIRRX ..... + .08% week, YTD = + .38%
    TRRFX .... + .33% week, YTD = + 1.32%
    VTENX ... + .08% week, YTD = + 1.24%
    Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
    We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
    Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
    Take care,
    Catch
    ---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of Nov. 1, 2012 ---
    From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
    U.S./Foreign Stocks 2.9%
    Bonds 92.9% ***
    Other 4.2%
    Not Classified 0.00%
    Avg yield = 3.99%
    Avg expense = .57%
    ***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)

    ---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
    -Investment grade bond funds 27.2%
    -Diversified bond funds 22.4%
    -HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
    -Total bond funds 32.4%
    -Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
    -U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 2.9%
    This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
    ---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
    FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
    SPHIX Fid High Income
    FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
    DIHYX TransAmerica HY
    ---Total Bond funds
    FTBFX Fid Total
    PTTRX Pimco Total
    ---Investment Grade Bonds
    ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
    DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
    FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
    FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
    OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
    ---Global/Diversified Bonds
    FSICX Fid Strategic Income
    FNMIX Fid New Markets
    DPFFX Delaware Diversified
    LSBDX Loomis Sayles
    PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
    PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
    ---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
    FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
    ---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
    FSHOX Fidelity Select Construction & Housing