@willmatt72First, it has been stated here at MFO that this type of interchange is dangerous among strangers, especially on the internet. So, I'll pretend we're, face to face, at the Mutual Fund Bar and Grill just down the street, having a casual chat; and we're playing "Devil's Advocate" with our portfolios.
You noted:
1. "I'm just curious about your thoughts about what kind of risk is acceptable for a 49-year old about 15 years from retirement with a $1.1 million portfolio.
2. I have very little debt (owe $120,000 on a mortgage on a $425,000 condo near Boston).
3. Personally, I don't believe it makes sense to take any unnecessary risk so I've been about 40% bond funds, 35% equity funds, 25% cash.
4. One of my goals has been to generate some income to help pay bills, etc.
5. But I'm equally focused on
capital preservation. Losing 25% of principle in one year is not acceptable to me at this point."
>>>1. Our house is retired, so without prospect of inbound cash flow (no input to previous 401k, 403b, or Roth IRA) from active employment. Your house still has active cash flow from employment. This may help support your thoughts toward a moderate allocation mix for your investments; as that if the equity markets did slip too much for your comfort zone, you have the choice of either reducing these holdings or adding to the holdings via a dollar cost averaging (assuming you are doing this with retirement accts on a monthly basis.
>>>2. We're both in the same place with this aspect of running a controlled budget with our households. We have a good grasp of understanding between the wants and needs for our budgets.
>>>3. As you voice your portfolio mix, I eventually reply that your current allocation is very conservative. Of special note is the large cash position; which is effectly dead money if in money market or CD holdings. The money is not keeping up with inflation and future taxation. $275,000 of your portfolio is too much to have asleep at the investing wheel, IMO.
>>>4. Income generation goals. I mention that in this equity-centric investment world; most folks think about bonds or related (dividends) as income producing. This is likely true from a yield viewpoint; but not so if the bond/asset value is declining. Then the "income" could be moving backwards. I explain that our house views income from whatever method as the positive return on the invested monies, period. We care not whether the income is from a yield/dividend or the appreciation of the underlying value of the investment. Tis all positive cash flow to the accounts. An offered example was our investments into the high yield bond sector in early 2009. Wow!; look at those yields in the upper teens.....well, those yields faded really fast as money flowed back into the HY bond sectors. We didn't care about that, as the underlying values of the bonds was moving upward at a fast pace. Technically, we gained "income" from both ends of the investment.
>>>5.
Capital preservation. Yes ! Not just for the older folks; but perhaps of more consideration for the older folks. 'Course the critical point here is whether one sells at the wrong time during a period of fear. Making up the value of losses in such a period is a problem for the young investor, too; as that money is now missing. The money will never be in the account again to live the happy life of ongoing compounding, a most profound grower of money. Yes, a young investor can replace the money with new money from their active employment; but this is not a plan that could be repeated many times without permanent damage to one's investment portfolio into the retirement years.
cman asked a critical question, too. Is this money in tax sheltered accounts? IMO, this would likely have some impact upon where your monies are invested and/or restrict money movements for reasons of current taxation. I am not qualified to comment about this area of investing; as our retirement portfolio is all tax sheltered at this time, so investment moves at our house do not consider current taxes. The cost basis going forward when the IRS requires beginning withdrawals will be what it becomes.
How active do you choose to be in monitoring your portfolio? Would you prefer the active managers in the balanced or moderate allocation funds area? Members here noted a few to review. Or perhaps a few etf's for your own mix?
cman, as well as others here have noted that asset allocation is pretty much impossible to determine for another. I will agree. You have already established a "comfort zone".
A kinda summary: If one invested 50/50, 10 years ago today, in VTI and AGG (not my favorite bond choice, but...) the combined annualized return would be 8%. 'Course one may have encountered what I call the "twitches"; as VTI traveled downward about -55% from October of 2007 through March of 2009. We're not a trading house; but do average about 1/3 of our portfolio moving around in any 12 month period.
We don't hold any "cash". In this equity-centric marketed investment world; our cash is always in a bond fund of some flavor. We view this "cash" placement in this light......If we were to park 25% of our portfolio in cash (I will presume money markets or CD's or other low yield/safe areas) for 12 months, we would calculate a forward loss of -3% for the period from a nominal inflation rate eating away at the value of that cash. We prefer to use a "calculated" risk of investing into a bond fund, index or etf and "take the chance" that the fund will not lose more than 3% in the same time frame. If this would happen, we are no worse off than the cash position would have returned. A large "cash" position for our house currently is PIMIX. A very narrowly focused bond sector at this time and the fund uses all of the tools available in the goody bag for results. But, we place the manager high upon our list of knowing what he is doing. A slow investment train to view passing by, without a doubt. But, this train just keeps traveling along; slowly and consistent (at this time), not stopping at the switching yards and lossing time (money).
Our house follows our holdings daily with a week ending review. This does not cause us to make quick changes to the portfolio; but does create, at least for us, an intuition as to trends. When we mix this review with what we consider in all other areas globally, this allows us to make determinations about any needed changes. Six weeks ago we were 40% equities; today that number is 15%. Our largest equity holdings are PRHSX and VSCPX. Other equities exist within LSBDX and FAGIX. The equity sales monies moved into TIP and other TIPs related funds available in other accounts. We felt that TIPs were oversold in 2013 and are still needed by pension and related groups. Even the lonely TIPs have a long term average return around 5%. 'Course, these may get further bumps upward depending on how silly events turn with Crimea, especially beginning again, this Sunday.
Our house's opinion is that the 30 year bond market rally still is not dead. Too many overhangs and deflationary pressures exist. But, we will carefully monitor this area, too. As you know; not unlike the equity markets, there are many flavors of bonds, many times moving in different directions.
Now, if only those I know and who ask; "How is the stock market doing...?" would recall that I always correct them to the fact that bonds do exist, too. Without the (larger dollar value) global bond market offerings, few equity companies would be able to do business or exist at all. Be assured that bond areas investors do well, too; over time.
NOTE: I began writing this prior to MikeM and msf replying, and your most recent post regarding your holdings.
Regards,
Catch