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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best L/S Fund
    @Vintage Freak
    You are actually paying an 8.13% expense ratio according to the most recent prospectus and confirmed with a telephone call I just made to TFS Capital.
    :( Please feel free to give me some good news as well.
    Time to rethink entire association with TFS.
  • Best L/S Fund
    @Vintage Freak
    You are actually paying an 8.13% expense ratio according to the most recent prospectus and confirmed with a telephone call I just made to TFS Capital.
    Dang.
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    i stay away from not tax-efficient investments in taxable accounts.
    Investors usually exit poorly performed funds. in order to raise cash for exiting investors, managers of the open end funds have to sell securities in a declining market. so they realize multi-year gains and sting the remaining investors with the cap gain taxes on top of the poor performance.
    If your shares are still under water (e.g. if you bought them in the past year), you can sell them on the record date and buy them back on the ex-date.
    You won't get to recognize your capital loss now (you'll have a wash sale, which will defer the loss), but you will avoid receiving the taxable distribution. This is a painless way of avoiding the paper gain while still staying invested (except for one day).
    Realize that you'll be another one of those sellers dumping the cap gains on the remaining investors.
  • Best L/S Fund
    @Vintage Freak
    You are actually paying an 8.13% expense ratio according to the most recent prospectus and confirmed with a telephone call I just made to TFS Capital.
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi rjb112, Blitzer, John Chisum, V/F and others,
    Thanks again for your comments.
    If you were to look back through the historical postings here and at fund alarm you will find that in the past I go heavy in equities around fall and usually start to lighten up during the first quarter and on into and through the second quarter as we move from winter into and through spring. I am never all out of the markets as my allocation range for equities allows for a low range at 40% and a high at 70%. A neutral allocation in equities would be somewhere around 55%. I am currently about 5% heavy from neutral since equities are currently selling pretty close to fair value but we are now moving into the season where I have trended to go heavy equity. The recent pullback came at a time that I believe will add good value to my traditional seasonal move.
    Generally, when equities are oversold I’ll carry a greater allocation to them and when they have become overbought I’ll reduce my allocation in them. In addition, I follow a seasonal investment strategy and tend to overweight them based upon the calendar (STS) around fall and then let my capital gain distribution pay to cash thus automatically reducing my equity allocation (an automatic rebalance of sorts). Should I need to reduce equities farther I do it in steps as the market advances (selling into the advance) until my desired allocation is reached and/or my cash allocation has reached its upper range. Naturally, if things move against me, in a big way, I'll reduce my equity allocation in a defensive move down towards its low range.
    I call this a walking allocation because my asset allocation resets from time-to-time based upon market valuation, the calendar, and other considerations I feel that should influence its weighting.
    I hope this provides some insight as to how Old_Skeet governs as it does allow for some flexability based upon certain variables. However, since I am totally never out of the market I consider myself a long term investor that employees some special strategies form time-to-time.
  • Wednesday. Oct. 22. Before the Bell.
    Another good day for Asia markets today, almost matching yesterday's gains. Japan's Nikkei gained another 2.64%. Only Shanghai and Malaysia had negative outcomes. Europe is still having their troubled. It is a mixed market over there with most indices in the red.
    The news in the US appears to be equalized between the very good and the disappointing. McDonalds, and IBM are anchors in the markets where Apple and others have taken off. Chipotle Mexican Grill, one of the media favorites is not looking good so far this week. Ever notice how the financial media goes nuts over a particular stock? Starbucks, COCO, to name a couple. Cramer is probably the culprit on this.
    As always, all the best and good investing.
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    Investors usually exit poorly performed funds. in order to raise cash for exiting investors, managers of the open end funds have to sell securities in a declining market. so they realize multi-year gains and sting the remaining investors with the cap gain taxes on top of the poor performance.
    If your shares are still under water (e.g. if you bought them in the past year), you can sell them on the record date and buy them back on the ex-date.
    You won't get to recognize your capital loss now (you'll have a wash sale, which will defer the loss), but you will avoid receiving the taxable distribution. This is a painless way of avoiding the paper gain while still staying invested (except for one day).
    Realize that you'll be another one of those sellers dumping the cap gains on the remaining investors.
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    The T. Rowe Price Small Cap Value qualified dividend percentage (as well as the qualified div percentage for other funds) look fishy to me. My understanding is that short term gains are not qualified - and so they can't be passed through by the fund as qualified dividends. But T. Rowe Price seems to be saying that this can happen.
    I'd like to think I'm wrong, and (some) short term gains will be treated as qualified dividends. I've asked this of T. Rowe price in a note I just sent:
    This question concerns year end distribution estimates.
    My understanding is that short term capital gains are distributed by a fund as ordinary dividends and are not qualified.
    For example, Dreyfus writes: "A mutual fund may flow through to its shareholders the qualified dividends it receives from its investment in equity securities. Dividends paid by the fund from interest income received and short-term capital gains will not qualify for the lower tax rates."
    https://public.dreyfus.com/accounts-services/tax-center/cap-gains-faqs.html
    The T. Rowe Price instructions for how to apply the qualified dividend estimate is to multiply the percentage given by the sum of the income dividends and the short term cap gains dividends (i.e. the ordinary dividends) for the fund.
    For Small Cap Value Fund, the figures are: 100% qualified, $0.27 income, $0.03 short term gains. How can 100% of the ordinary income dividends ($0.30) be qualified, when 10% of those dividends are short term gains? It seems you are saying that short term gains may be qualified dividends.
    Is there some rule that permits (under certain conditions) short term capital gains to be passed through as qualified dividends? Or is the estimated percentage of qualified dividends overly optimistic for this fund?
    Thank you.
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi rjb112,
    Thanks for your comments.
    So far it looks as though it might come through as I anticipated as history tells us STS will work more times than not. However, there are many things that can take place for the rally to turn as you have stated above. Note though history tells me that the best time to be invested in the stock market is during the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of each year. With this, I just put in what I am expecting to get paid back out through anticipated capital gains distributions during the months of November and December. My gain, with this, will be what is made on the spiff between now and then. After that I'll be back to my starting equity allocation once the distributions have taken place plus or minus the gain and/or loss that might occur on my remaining invested principal.
    I am linking the details on the seasonal strategy that I have followed for a good many years. Again, note that it has worked for me more times than not and I felt my chances of it working now were greater, by my thinking, than it not working. There seems from what I have been recently reading and hearing that big money sold around the low of 1840 to 1820 during the recent plullback, perhaps this was due to margin calls as reported by some news outlets and now they are having to buy back in at higher levels pushing prices back upward. And, another ... I felt good corporate earnings would be coming through for the third quarter reporting and thus far they have. It has been my experience that earnings drive the markets.
    http://www.streetsmartreport.com/sts
    Call it a timming strategy if you like ... or call ... it a rebalance of sorts based upon the calendar. I am still within the confines of my asset allocation and from my thinking that makes me an investor rather than a trader as they seem to be all in or all out over short periods of time. So, call it what you like, either way, I am currently on the heavy side in my equity allocation.
    Old_Skeet
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi Catch22 ...
    I used the decline in the Index's price line to add value and to enter into the spiff in time for the anticipated fall stock market rally. .....I made a guess as to how much these anticipated distributions would amount to and chose to position in while I felt prices in October would be more favorable than what they might be towards yearend; and, I fronted the money to make the purchases. I'll let the forthcoming anticipated capital gain distributions restore my cash allocation within my portfolio. Kind of clever ... Don't you think?
    In short, I felt prices would be more favorable in October than they might be in November, December, January, February and March ... and, I chose to go ahead and position in to hopefully catching the anticipated fall stock market rally that usually starts sometime towards the end of October and usually runs through the first quarter of the following year on and into its second quarter.
    Old_Skeet
    Old_Skeet, I'm very glad this worked out well for you. You realize this was a market timing decision. What made you so confident that prices would be more favorable now versus what you mentioned above, November thru March? For example, at this time in October, 2007, I don't believe that decision would have worked out well. Nor the year after, in October 2008. And you know there have been some nasty Octobers in the market, such as 1987 and maybe others, where this same decision would not have been good.
    Seems the market could just as easily have continued downward, due to unknowns such as Ebola, fears of deflation in Europe, issues in Japan, Hong Kong, fears of slowing in China, all that is happening globally from Ukraine to the middle east......to unemployment, less than robust recovery, you know the whole story......
    Anyway, a market timing decision. Looks like you got it right, but I haven't seen evidence that many can time the stock market well.
    I agree with what you said about forward earnings, forward P/E ratios looking reasonable. Have you seen the forward P/E on the Dow? Seems to me that buying the etf DIA is a reasonable choice. 30 quality stocks with an aggregate P/E less than 15. Of course, the bears like Hussman say that earnings have peaked, so the P/E is not accurate, because the "E" will be reverting to the mean. No, I'm not in Hussman's funds.
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    I actually like frequent CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman less than I do Cramer.
    Gartman's two calls for stocks to move lower over the past few weeks have been the moment the markets reversed.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I happened to hear the sell signal he gave earlier this year on CNBC. Amazing how he got it just wrong. And now this one on Oct. 16th. Amazingly bad timing. His subscribers pay a lot to get his advice. They have lost a lot of money getting out at the low, being out for the rebound, and paying a lot of capital gains taxes to boot, on any previously unrealized gains they had.
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi Catch22 ...
    Thanks for your question.
    I reference the below link for certain P/E Ratio details on the S&P 500 Index.
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=wsj_mdc_additional_ustocks
    Notice the continued positive outlook for forward earnings ... this, to me, is a fundmanetal and not a technical. It was the large part of my thinking process to increase equity positions within my portfolio.
    I used the decline in the Index's price line to add value and to enter into the spiff in time for the anticipated fall stock market rally. In Novemeber and December many of my mutual funds will be making large capital gain distributions and some of them as high as eight percent, or more. I made a guess as to how much these anticipated distributions would amount to and chose to position in while I felt prices in October would be more favorable than what they might be towards yearend; and, I fronted the money to make the purchases. I'll let the forthcoming anticipated capital gain distributions restore my cash allocation within my portfolio. Kind of clever ... Don't you think?
    In short, I felt prices would be more favorable in October than they might be in November, December, January, February and March ... and, I chose to go ahead and position in to hopefully catching the anticipated fall stock market rally that usually starts sometime towards the end of October and usually runs through the first quarter of the following year on and into its second quarter.
    In addition, as an investor, I'll will remian invested within my portfolio's asset allocation ranges. These ranges follow: Cash Area (5% to 25%) ... Income Area (20% to 40%) ... Growth & Income Area (30% to 50%) ... and, the Growth Area (10% to 20%). With this, my allocation to equities can range for a low of about 40% to a high of about 70% and my allocation to debt securities, which include cash, can range form a low of 30% to a high of 60% within my portfolio. All asset areas can not be at their low, or high, percentage mark at the same time.
    Old_Skeet
  • Catching falling knives
    I thought I'd update the board on the special investment position (spiff) I made in what turned out to be a downdraft in the S&P 500 Index as it did pull back about ten per cent from its recent high of about 2020 to a recent low in the 1820 range. As I write, the Index is selling for about 1920 and my spiff is now in the money. Should the Index reach 2100 as forecast by some for its yearend close then this will result in better than a ten percent return for this spiff. If for some reason this turns on me I'll be collecting a good yield and time is on my side for this spiff to work as I am an investor rather than a trader although I have, at times, sold off some of my spiffs once they have reached a targeted goal or to rebalance my portfolio.
    Although some may say I averaged down in opening this spiff I don't look at this in that light. I view it as I will have, in the end, invested market derived money back into certain investments that were selling at discounted prices at the time they were purchased. I ventured into this special spiff based more on market fundamentals rather than its technical’s. Investors govern more by market fundamentals over market technical’s but may use technical’s to aid in positioning their new entries while traders seem to govern more by price line action and technical’s to enter and exit positions.
    Please don't take this as an Old_Skeet vs. Junkster debate but it is intended, by me, to expand and to better explain the difference of the two very different styles. No doubt, Junkster has had good success ... but, so have I as a long term investor. I truly believe we can learn form each other by exploring each others success and failures and studying the thinking in making these ventures. For me, it is indeed good to have Junkster post his thinking. And, although I have had success thus far this year he was right on spot with his call on muni high yield. Indeed, he has trounced another trader that I follow, to see what he is doing and thinking, and that is the Moose.
    Thanks Junkster for the continued posting of your thinking. It is much appreciated.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Funds For A Volatile Market
    @VintageFreak. Why are you surprised with the AKREX note. I've owned FBRVX and now AKREX and it has always been a steady performer in up and down markets.
    Likewise, but I did sell AKREX in current downturn. It is just that AKREX wouldn't come to mind as first fund to buy in a down market. Bottom fishing candidate? Absolutely, and which is when I bought it in 2009. Thought it was prudent to take gains.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Mostly Higher, But IBM Weighs On Dow
    FYI: U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, though downbeat earnings from International Business Machines Corp. kept a lid on gains for Dow industrials.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-fall-following-european-markets-1413807708#printMode
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
    Leading Groups: http://finviz.com/groups.ashx
  • Best L/S Fund
    Maybe long short is notwhatyou need. Maybe multialternative or market neutral might suit your needs more. I have seldom seen long short funds goals stating lower volatility as a goal. They claim they can protect capital better but i dont think we can equate that statement with lower volatility.
    And my comment wasnot meant to drive anyone away from any board. I think wea are all busy yet take time to respond. Is it too much to ask original post to be a little tad more explanatory?
  • Behind Private Equity's Curtain
    @heezsafe: Sounds good, but I don't believe Bain Capital is not a public traded company. As to Dave's Insanity Hot Sause, I drink a bottle or two every night.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Dave's Insanity Hot Sause:
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    Investors usually exit poorly performed funds. in order to raise cash for exiting investors, managers of the open end funds have to sell securities in a declining market. so they realize multi-year gains and sting the remaining investors with the cap gain taxes on top of the poor performance.
    Thanks to The Shadow. ("The SHADOW knows...") And to all the others who have added to the list here. My question is about the TRP est. numbers--- particularly about PRESX Europe and PRSVX Small-cap Value. Can those estimates really be trusted, after a pretty stinky year, so far? If so, how do we account for the discrepancy?
    PRESX YTD is down -10.72%, but with an over 2% rise, just on Friday last.
    And yet: a larger pay-out (.35 cents/share) is estimated--- bigger than last year's.
    PRSVX is down YTD by -7.74%. But a pay-out of $2.63 is estimated.
    How on earth.......???????????
  • Behind Private Equity's Curtain
    @Ted
    What, only one position?
    I think you need a diversifier. Something more primal, red in tooth and claw, slathered in hot sauce (like Famous Dave's Devil's Spit). How about something like.....ummmmm........ Bain Capital! :)