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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MW (Merriman): Best target-date funds? Fidelity vs. Vanguard, 04-15-2015
    I thought this thread was about target date funds when I posted earlier. Seems to me an attempt has been made to subvert it into into the thread-worn debate over index funds vs. active management. I, for one, want no part of that debate.
    When I alluded earlier to terms like "research/analytical capabilities" and "corporate culture" I had in mind only that target date funds usually allocate widely across various asset classes and geographic areas. To an extent, management attempts to "overweight" or "underweight" different asset classes and geopolitical areas based upon its readings of relative valuations.
    Now, you can say "To hell with that. All index all the time." if you want. To do so, however, is to say that no knowledge exists in any corner of the investment universe. Citadel gains nothing by hiring Ben Bernanke. Franklin Templeton's Mark Möbius provides no benefit to the firm's global allocation strategies, and the praises often bestowed on T. Rowe Price for it ability to identify the more attractive segments of the domestic and international stock and fixed income markets are, in fact, sorely misplaced.
    Have it your way.
  • Equinox funds and EQCHX in particular
    Hey Scott, it's the same company, maybe not the same hedge fund (?), and actually BlueCrest, as of the first of the year, no longer has anything to do with the mutual fund. A woman named Leda Braga developed a trading system at BlueCrest and then split from BC to start her own company, Systematica Investments. That's whose investment vehicle EBCIX followed before the split, and continues now with the new company.
    It's a tangled web the hedgies weave.
    Bluetrend (Braga's fund) is available on the London market as a feeder fund (an "investment trust", sort of like a CEF in the US), as is AllBlue (although I haven't looked to see if that fund still has exposure to Bluetrend after the break off) Interesting that this fund is also a feeder fund for Bluetrend. London also has Third Point Offshore and a few others (the Brevan Howard funds, for example) and RIT Capital Partners (aka Rothschild Investment Trust.)
    RIT Capital Partners has investments in a number of private funds.
    Ackman's Pershing Square feeder fund is also available in Amsterdam, but there is a pink sheet share in the US.
    Edited to add: AllBlue still invests in Bluetrend.
    Thanks for your reply.
  • Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income: an invitation to confer and/or to share your questions
    Thanks David.
    Would enjoy a hearing Mr. Foster's philosophy on dividends...if and how does it factor in his portfolio construction.
    And, perhaps, a little on how he manages capital gains.
    Looking forward to the call, as always.
    c
  • Jason Zweig: Just How Dumb Are Investors ?
    If you read Jason's column you can track back to Bob Seawright's essay on how advisors can make better decisions, then back again to Seawright'sessay of the same name in Research Magazine. Both make thoughtful arguments.
    In the Research Magazine piece you'll find the name of the Dalbar study they're discussing. Googling the title allows you to find the Dalbar Quantititative Analysis of Investor Behavior (2014) study. There you'll get this answer to the question above:
    QAIB uses data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), Standard & Poor’s, Barclays Capital Index Products and proprietary sources to compare mutual fund investor returns to an appropriate set of benchmarks. Covering the period from QAIB’s inception (January 1, 1984) to December 31, 2013, the study utilizes mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as the measure of investor behavior. These behaviors reflect the “average investor.” Based on this behavior, the analysis calculates the “average investor return” for various periods.
    The Dalbar study, like Morningstar's, uses fund flows as a surrogate for investor returns. That is, if EM stock funds soar in 2015 but have a low level of assets while, say, large growth funds hold trillions but then crash, the former weighs lightly and the latter weighs heavily in assessing how the average stock investor did.
    Three follow-up thoughts: (1) Messers. Zweig and Seawright agree that Dalbar is consistent with, though more pessimistic than, the rest of the published research:
    ... all the relevant studies show that individuals underperform by a significant amount (we tend to buy high and sell low), Dalbar’s data (the study I reference in the piece) shows a gap that’s much larger than the other research. I should have noted that here. But it doesn’t change the primary point — our decision-making isn’t very good and needs to get much better. It just isn’t likely that it’s quite as bad as Dalbar portrays it.
    (2) I really dislike the quality of Dalbar's writing. They do a singularly poor job of explaining how they calculate things like the "Guess Right ratio" and their jumbled graphics detract from the argument.
    (3) That said, they make important arguments: that the quality of investor decision making has improved steadily over 20 years, that the improvement seems to have plateaued, that investor education programs have limited effect but that there are four strategies that advisors might pursue which would improve investors' prospects.
    The suggested approach consists of setting appropriate expectations, controlling investor exposure to risk, monitoring of risk tolerances and presenting forecasts in terms of probabilities.
    For what interest it holds,
    David
  • Jeff Gundlach, David Sherman, others; concerned, regarding IG bond issuance and the reasons.......
    @00BY / @catch22 Thanks for the insights.
    Inverse bond opportunities/Short bonds for the brave.
    David Sherman's ideas in this space are only available to accredited investors.(who among us?)
    Cohanzick Nexus
    Cohanzick Investment Management’s Nexus Fund is only open to accredited investors as the term is defined by the Securities Act of 1933 under Rule 501 or Regulation D. Before accepting an investment in the Nexus Fund, it must verify an investor’s Accredited Investor Status.
    Nexus is a short-biased credit fund focused on event-driven and fundamentally-based mispricing among bonds within a corporate capital structure or between equity and corporate bonds. The fund is co-managed by David K. Sherman and Bruce A. Falbaum, CFA.
    http://www.cohanzick.com/credit-opportunities
    http://etfdb.com/etf/IGS/#fundamentals
    http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/inverse-bonds/#returns
  • 1st Quarter MFO Ratings Update
    All Search Tools have now been updated with performance data through March.
    The MFO Fund Dashboard contains all funds profiled through April commentary.
    Some notable funds on the Three Alarm list, which examines only absolute return within category, include:
    Greenspring (GRSPX)
    American Century One Choice 2025 A (ARWAX)
    American Century One Choice 2035 A (ARYAX)
    Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
    The Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX)
    Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
    Fairholme (FAIRX)
    Valley Forge (VAFGX)
    Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
    Hussman Strategic International (HSIEX)
    AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
    Royce Partners Svc (RPTRX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Paradigm Value (PVFAX)
    Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Royce Select I Invmt (RYSFX)
    Royce 100 Svc (RYOHX)
    Royce Heritage Svc (RGFAX)
    Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Invmt (PENNX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    Ave Maria Opportunity (AVESX)
    Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
    Royce Select II Invmt (RSFDX)
    Wintergreen Investor (WGRNX)
    Of Royce's 27 funds, nine are Three Alarm.
    Pacific Advisors has five Three Alarm Funds...they only offer six. From its website:
    We are a family of six focused mutual funds, each designed to meet a different need and to complement each other when building a diversified investment plan. Whether you are just starting out in your career, or enjoying retirement today, we deliver top quality service and a wide range of investments to meet your changing needs.
    Here is a snapshot (from MFO Premium beta site) of their lifetime performance:
    image
    Really horrible family of funds, seems to me. Why would anyone buy them?
    Vanguard offers 150 funds. How many are on the Three Alarm list? None. I find that remarkable. How many are on the Honor Roll? 32. I find that remarkable too.
    A look at just-turned-three Great Owls, finds:
    Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder (GAINX)
    Rainier International Discovery Instl (RAIIX)
    DFA World Core Equity Institutional (DREIX)
    Seafarer Overseas Gr and Income Instl (SIGIX)
    Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Countrs Inv (WAFMX)
    PIMCO Total Return Active EtF (BOND)
    AQR TM Large Cap Momentum Style I (ATMOX)
    Vanguard Target Retirement 2060 Inv (VTTSX)
    2060?!
    A total of 8159 funds (oldest share class only, at least one year old) are included in this quarter's update.
    We also updated the look a bit to support new site theme...here's example of Risk Profile output:
    image
    Enjoy.
    c
  • DAILYALTS: Several Articles
    Rothschild Larch Lane Alternatives Fund Investor Class RLLBX
    The Rothschild Larch Lane Alternatives Fund (the “Fund”) returned 2.18% net of all fees and expenses for the month of March. Three of the Fund’s four subadvisers
    had gains for the month. The Fund benefited from short positions in non-U.S. currencies, long positions in select global government bond markets,
    and short positions among energy and agricultural commodities. In March, equity index trading in Europe and Asia contributed to gains while single-name
    U.S. equity positions detracted from performance
    http://www.rothschild.com/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=2147486821
    http://www.rothschild.com/RLLFunds/availabledocuments/
  • Portfolio Rebalancing…For Cowards
    Non-dollar bonds are being pressured by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Unlike international companies that generate revenue from outside their borders, foreign bonds are dependent to a great extent on the value of their currency. Some folks believe the dollar may stagnate for a while, some believe the euro will strengthen, both of which would help foreign bonds. Timing this is nearly impossible. You might consider Matthews Asia Strategic Income MAINX (keep in mind this is Asia-specific fixed-income), Templeton Global Bond TGBAX (manager Hasenstab is the best at currency choices), or a multi-sector option like BlackRock Strategic Income BSIIX (has about 25% in non-U.S. bonds). These have decent track records and strong management teams. But, yes, you should capture some of the gain in Apple. The point is not to sell Apple, but rather to not lose all the gains should the stock market correct or worse. Remember that a bad day for bonds is nothing compared to a bad day for stocks.
  • Bill Gross' Contrarian Bet Against The Dollar Helps Him Regain Footing
    FYI: After a shaky first five months, Bill Gross is regaining his footing at Janus Capital Group Inc., helped by a contrarian bet that the dollar's rally won't continue.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150408/FREE/150409932?template=printart
  • No Fed Rate Hike Needed Until Second Half Of 2016
    Fed's Concerns
    A nostalgic time before the DotCom crash and of course 9/11 and "the great recession".They called him the maestro for a while,didn't they? Are current conditions a "favorable economic environment".
    Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
    The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report
    Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
    February 26, 1997
    "Why should the central bank be concerned about the possibility that financial markets may be overestimating returns or mispricing risk? It is not that we have a firm view that equity prices are necessarily excessive right now or risk spreads patently too low. Our goal is to contribute as best we can to the highest possible growth of income and wealth over time, and we would be pleased if the favorable economic environment projected in markets actually comes to pass. Rather, the FOMC has to be sensitive to indications of even slowly building imbalances, whatever their source, that, by fostering the emergence of inflation pressures, would ultimately threaten healthy economic expansion.
    "I will conclude on the same upbeat note about the U.S. economy with which I began. Although a central banker's occupational responsibility is to stay on the lookout for trouble, even I must admit that our economic prospects in general are quite favorable. The flexibility of our market system and the vibrancy of our private sector remain examples for the whole world to emulate. The Federal Reserve will endeavor to do its part by continuing to foster a monetary framework under which our citizens can prosper to the fullest possible extent."
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/1997/february/testimony.htm
    Global Economy's Manufacturing Sector Struggles
    by Robert Brusca April 6, 2015
    "Against this background, it is hard to understand the Fed's compulsion to hike rates. There are no capacity constraints in the U.S. or even in the global economy. Manufacturing everywhere is extremely weak. There has been a lot of monetary stimulus and the countries that did that early have fared better (the U.S. and the U.K.). But now that stimulus is wearing off and the stimulus launched in Europe is playing a part by driving the euro lower and the dollar higher.
    There is also a legacy of excessive debt and a plan by central banks to control leverage and risk. This program restricts bank lending by using capital/asset ratios that bind and a stress test to enforce disciple. This approach doesn't just control; it also restricts lending and growth."
    http://www.haver.com/comment/comment.html?c=150406A.html
  • The Real Point Of Active Investing
    Investing, be it money and/or time is to obtain a personal goal, yes?
    TIME investing:
    I spent a fair amount of time investing in a particular educational path.
    I wanted to have the ability to be within a work area that I enjoyed and that would also provide a "decent" livelyhood.....wage.
    That did happen (the career); but I was not part of a union workforce, and I knew at a young age that I would not have a bountiful pension program that was very evident in a large, union wage state as Michigan was during my work period. I would not have any health benefit, nor a cost of living index attached to my retirement.
    I/we knew we would and should be prepared to provide for ourselves monetarily in the future; for any shortcomings or unknowns from any other income source. We did not and still do not have any rich relative who will be dropping a boatload of money into our laps upon their passing; and we still have not had the big win in the lotto.
    MONETARY investing:
    From the above arose active investing of our monies that were in excess of our needs from our budget.
    As to active investing, well, as @Old_Joe noted too; I don't know what else one could name the direct involvment of investing; other than one being active. One decides; plain and simple about how to guide the monies, eh?
    When I use the word "active" here, it is only in the sense of being involved with the decision of "what" for an investment. We're not very fussy about the sector(s) where the capital appreciation arrives. We have active, passive and etf's.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Leadsman Capital Strategic Income Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1396092/000120928615000184/e1618.htm
    497 1 e1618.htm
    LEADSMAN CAPITAL STRATEGIC INCOME FUND
    Supplement dated April 7, 2015
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated September 15, 2014
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of World Funds Trust (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to the Leadsman Capital Strategic Income Fund (the “Fund”), effective April 7, 2015. Leadsman Capital LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan based on its representations of its inability to market the Fund and the Adviser’s indication that it does not desire to continue to support the Fund. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund’s shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
    In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the liquidation.
    It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about April 7, 2015. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1.800.673.0550.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated September 15, 2014, provide relevant
    information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the
    Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated September 15, 2014 have
    been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference,
    and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1.800.673.0550.
  • K1 from Oaktree capital group
    I know many of you on this board invested in OAK, have you received official K1 from them yet? Thanks.
  • Time to Bail out of Perkins Midcap Value (JMCVX)
    @Mulder420; Yes, even Tom's brother Bob Perkins, a friend of mine for many years, would say its time to go. Bob got into the business with the Omni Fund, which then became Berger Small-Cap Value Fund which was owned by Kansas City Southern Railroad and eventually sold to Janus. For your information, I've linked some MCV Funds ranked by U.S. & World Report.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/mid-cap-value?int=9c0d08
    Janus History:
    http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/janus-capital-group-inc-history/
  • Bespoke’s ETF Matrix Of Q1 Asset Class Performance
    FYI: Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in Q1 2015 using key ETFs traded on US exchanges. For the quarter, the S&P 500 SPY ETF gained 0.43%, marking its 9th consecutive quarter of gains. While the S&P 500 gained, the Dow 30 (DIA) fell 0.17%.
    Outside of the large cap SPY and DIA, other equity indices did much better. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained 2.28%, while the Mid Cap 400 (IJH) rose 4.96% and the Small Cap 600 (IJR) gained 3.48%. Mid Cap and Small Cap growth
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokes-etf-matrix-of-q1-asset-class-performance/
  • Mark Hulbert: For Stocks, The Best Time To Sell And Go Away Starts Tomorrow
    I recently sold my spiff (special investment position) off that I opened in October of 2014 with about an 8.3% gain plus dividends. Had I sold a few days earlier I'd have had a gain of about 10.4%. I chose to exit with respectable gains rather than to wait and watch them evaporate as we approach and enter 1Q2015 earnings reporting season as I believe earnings are going to disappoint.
  • Greenhouse Microcap Discovery Fund: BCDSX
    In an inquiry to Baird Capital Management yesterday about a target date for the launch of this fund, Baird client service associate Angela Stenklyft wrote:
    Thank you for your interest in the Baird Funds. We have decided not to pursue the MicroCap Fund at this time.
  • Pre-IPO Tech Fund Returns 28 percent In First Year
    FYI: The first mutual fund giving mom-and-pop investors easy access to the private market for tech startups turned a year old this week, capping a year of big gains and raising the question for would-be buyers: Is this a good deal or a danger?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/us-fundview-sharespost-idUSKBN0MM2VV20150326
    Shares Post 100 Fund Website:
    http://sharespost.com/sharepost-100-fund/overview/