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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Time to Bail out of Perkins Midcap Value (JMCVX)
    @Mulder420; Yes, even Tom's brother Bob Perkins, a friend of mine for many years, would say its time to go. Bob got into the business with the Omni Fund, which then became Berger Small-Cap Value Fund which was owned by Kansas City Southern Railroad and eventually sold to Janus. For your information, I've linked some MCV Funds ranked by U.S. & World Report.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/mid-cap-value?int=9c0d08
    Janus History:
    http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/janus-capital-group-inc-history/
  • Bespoke’s ETF Matrix Of Q1 Asset Class Performance
    FYI: Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in Q1 2015 using key ETFs traded on US exchanges. For the quarter, the S&P 500 SPY ETF gained 0.43%, marking its 9th consecutive quarter of gains. While the S&P 500 gained, the Dow 30 (DIA) fell 0.17%.
    Outside of the large cap SPY and DIA, other equity indices did much better. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained 2.28%, while the Mid Cap 400 (IJH) rose 4.96% and the Small Cap 600 (IJR) gained 3.48%. Mid Cap and Small Cap growth
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokes-etf-matrix-of-q1-asset-class-performance/
  • Mark Hulbert: For Stocks, The Best Time To Sell And Go Away Starts Tomorrow
    I recently sold my spiff (special investment position) off that I opened in October of 2014 with about an 8.3% gain plus dividends. Had I sold a few days earlier I'd have had a gain of about 10.4%. I chose to exit with respectable gains rather than to wait and watch them evaporate as we approach and enter 1Q2015 earnings reporting season as I believe earnings are going to disappoint.
  • Greenhouse Microcap Discovery Fund: BCDSX
    In an inquiry to Baird Capital Management yesterday about a target date for the launch of this fund, Baird client service associate Angela Stenklyft wrote:
    Thank you for your interest in the Baird Funds. We have decided not to pursue the MicroCap Fund at this time.
  • Pre-IPO Tech Fund Returns 28 percent In First Year
    FYI: The first mutual fund giving mom-and-pop investors easy access to the private market for tech startups turned a year old this week, capping a year of big gains and raising the question for would-be buyers: Is this a good deal or a danger?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/us-fundview-sharespost-idUSKBN0MM2VV20150326
    Shares Post 100 Fund Website:
    http://sharespost.com/sharepost-100-fund/overview/
  • The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX), Vanguard Wellington (VWENX), Templeton Mutual Discovery (MDISX)
  • Jason Zweig: The New Era Of Low Stock Returns
    FYI: After more than six years of a bull market, investors should stare a cold, hard truth straight in the face: Future returns on stocks are likely to be far slimmer than the fat gains of the past few years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/27/the-new-era-of-low-stock-returns/tab/print/
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    Background: Earlier, I had said: "Money-market funds use their capital to make relatively short-term loans, and, in the old days, their so-called "dividends" were really just a cut of the interest that the MF company obtained while lending those funds. While they also had disclaimers... it was generally believed to be with "a wink and a nod", as the MF companies tried very hard to maintain the $1.00 NAV, and generally succeeded."
    And heezsafe replied: "Old_Joe your thinking about MMkt funds is incorrect (both pre-crisis and certainly post-crisis); but if I can find a good synopsis to go with other things I've found (hey, I realized I needed a refresher on this, too!), then I'll have a "package" of interesting things I'll post for you in the next few days."
    ••••••••••
    @heezsafe- Hello there. I'll admit I just ran that off from memory, but your note inspired me to check Wickipedia for more info, and it seems to me to be pretty close to what I was saying:

    "A money market fund (also called a money market mutual fund) is an open-ended mutual fund that invests in short-term debt securities such as US Treasury bills and commercial paper. Money market funds are widely (though not necessarily accurately) regarded as being as safe as bank deposits yet providing a higher yield."
    "[M]oney market funds are important providers of liquidity to financial intermediaries."
    "The portfolio must maintain a weighted average maturity of 60 days or less and not invest more than 5% in any one issuer, except for government securities and repurchase agreements."
    "Unlike most other financial instruments, money market funds seek to maintain a stable value of $1 per share. Funds are able to pay dividends to investors."

    Investing in "short-term debt securities" is equivalent to making short term loans, yes?
    In any case, this has been an interesting thread, and I'll look forward to your "package" of interesting things".
    Regards- OJ
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    Wait long enough, and a lot of what one has in mind will be said. Thanks to Hank for his most recent post above about what cash means. That was some of what I wanted to point out - that if you're thinking about cash as something used for paying bills, you need stable (or very nearly stable) prices. But if you're using "cash" for asset allocation, you can tolerate fluctuations.
    In the latter case, these days I wonder about the use of bonds at all (rather than cash) for ballast. Is 1% or so extra return over cash worth the extra risk? While some people are wondering how to get any return on cash, I'm wondering whether 2% on short-intermediate term bond funds is worth the risk. If one does want to take that risk, I'd look at FPNIX - it's always been non-traditional, using derivatives as much to preserve capital as to improve returns.
    Back to cash. Regarding I-bonds - which I think are great for cash allocation but not day-to-day cash (since you can't redeem them for a year) - not only can you buy $10K/year/SSN from Treasury Direct, but if you have a refund coming on your 1040, you can buy $5K more using Form 8888.
    A similar idea to I-bonds (stable, insured, liquid albeit with penalty) is long term CDs. Many banks offer CDs where you come out ahead of cash even after a year or so (like an I-bond), even after penalty. But there are risks - being able to access your money (early withdrawal may be at the discretion of the bank), and interest rate risk (the bank could increase the early withdrawal penalty). Here's a good post on that. The site (depositaccounts.com) also has a CD calculator showing the net APY after penalty.
    Comparing muni bond funds with RPHYX - BobC addressed this to some extent. He likes NEARX. I've been a little uncomfortable about the risk it seems to take (investing heavily in low graded states), but if memory serves, it seems to have cut back significantly on Illinois (lowest graded state), and generally gotten more conservative. Here's a nice graphic on state ratings (you'll need to zoom in to read it well). But NJ's rating (5% of NEARX) has dropped further than the graphic shows.
    I tend to look at SEC yield, especially for investments that are not intended to be short term (i.e. used for monthly payrolls and the like) - this is a calculation that's designed to reflect total return (i.e. it accounts for increase/decrease in values of discount/premium bonds). Near the top of short term munis is Vanguard Ltd-Term (VMLUX, VMLTX), a more conservative muni fund that BobC has also suggested in the past as a conservative alternative to NEARX. I feel it offers better risk/reward, in the sense that even though its return is less, its risk is much less. And right now, its SEC yield tops most funds, including NEARX.
    It does this, as you'd expect, with low costs. So its portfolio can be shorter term, and higher grade than any of the funds with similar SEC yields. Specifically, its average duration is 2.5 years, and average AA rated (M*). Its SEC yield is 0.86%. There are only two AA rated funds with SEC yields about 0.5% that are comparable - AUNAX (NTF at TDAmeritrade) 2.2 year duration, but high expense and high M* risk (volatile), and DFSMX 2.7 year duration, but 0.52% SEC yield and, well try to buy DFA funds.
    Compared to cash (I use 1% as a baseline, since that's about what one can get in FDIC-insured online banks) and a 28% tax bracket, the expected return of 0.86% beats the 072% post tax cash return. Go shorter with munis and you won't beat cash; go longer and you'll be taking on higher interest rate risk that I feel pushes the fund too far away from cash. YMMV.
  • Oaktree’s Marks Warns Liquid-Alternative Funds Won’t Deliver
    FYI: Howard Marks, the billionaire co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group LLC, isn’t a fan of liquid alternatives.
    “They’re supposed to deliver performance comparable to other alternative investments without the illiquidity they entail,” Marks wrote in a memo to clients Wednesday. “To me it sounds like just one more promise of something for nothing.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/oaktree-s-marks-warns-liquid-alternative-funds-won-t-deliver-21190.html?print
  • Paul Merriman: When Going All-In On Small-Cap Value Mght Be A Winner
    This is worth reading. At the end of the article, the author recommends 3 small-cap value ETFs: VTWV, IJS, or SLYV, the choice depending on whether one is a Vanguard, Fidelity or Schwab customer. Since I am the latter, I quickly compared SLYV to the other two. One difference really stands out; SLYV distributed north of 7% of NAV in income, STCG and LTCG in 2014, while VTWV and IJS have never paid capital gains. Turnover ratios at the three funds range from 36-41%, but SLYV would seem to be a bad choice in a taxable account. I don't understand how an index fund could generate STCG on the order of $3.32 last year alone. That looks like active management.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: U.S. Kraft & Heinz Merger
    FYI: Kraft Foods Group and H.J. Heinz Company have agreed to merge in a deal that will create the fifth largest food and beverage company in the world, and the third largest in America. Kraft shares were up 24% in pre-market trading.
    The firms released a statement confirming the deal on Wednesday morning, following a report in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that the two were in talks with a deal likely to top $40 billion. Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which teamed up in 2013 to buy Heinz for $23 billion, will invest $10 billion in the new company. Kraft will add well-known food brands, including Kraft Singles, Maxwell House, Kool-Aid, and Kraft Mac & Cheese to 3G’s food-focused portfolio.
    The new company will be called the The Kraft Heinz Company and will be co-headquartered in Pittsburgh and the Chicago area, with revenues of approximately $28 billion, eight $1 billion+ brands and five brands between $500 million and $1 billion. Kraft shareholders will own 49% of the new company, and receive a special cash dividend of $16.50 per share. The cash dividend payment represents 27% of Kraft’s closing price as of Tuesday, according to the statement.
    The relentlessly ambitious 3G is already considered the envy of the food world and activist investors due to its near-singular focus on costs and its list of rich co-investors, among other things. But in the private equity world, it’s also changing the rules of fundraising in a way that’s gotten its rivals — in particular New York-based Blackstone Group — eager to do the same
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/03/25/morning-moneybeat-on-a-stair-stepper-rally-and-a-blockbuster-deal-for-kraft/tab/print/
    Current Futures:
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    Hi all you good folk:
    As we all scramble for yield … I guess … perhaps some are willing to broaden their definition for cash and what it’s equal might be. For me, real cash would be US currency, FDIC bank deposits, savings accounts and some cd’s along with short term treasuries. At one time I included brokerage and fund company money market accounts; but, no more unless they are FDIC insured.
    Even though gold and silver might be a store of value and offer barter capacity ... for me ... they are not cash.
    So, when Old_Skeet says he has fifteen percent in cash … He really does.
    Additional Note 1:
    One of the things I have done to make my cash productive is to open and close special spiff investment positions form time-to-time.
    My last spiff was opened around October of 2014 with an average cost on the spiff with a cost reading on the S&P 500 Index at 1905. Thru March 20th of 2015 this position is now up about 10.4%. Since, I am currently at about 15% in cash as I write I have left the spiff open and will most likely close it out as we approach summer and before if stocks go soft as we approach 1Q2015 earning reporting season.
    When the spiff is fully closed out, this will raise my cash allocation to about 20% and reduce my equity allocation to about 50%. From a tax strategy stand point this spiff strategy is usually done in my self directed ira account thus avoiding capital gains taxes that would be due on the gains if done in a taxable account.
    Come late summer or early fall, I will usually start another special equity spiff position in this seasonal strategy and fund it from the cash area of the portfolio rather than utilizing margin based funding that would eat into profits. And, if done on margin that would put the action in the taxable account and make the gains taxable.
    Additional Note 2:
    Booked profit in special spiff today with the market headed downwards on economic data and news. And, I am not to hopeful 1Q2015 earnings are going to be all that good. Profit over about a six month holding period was 8.2% plus dividends.
    Old_Skeet
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    "Does that sound like a "cash account substitute"?"
    @heezsafe: Well, it seems to me that it does have some attributes of a cash-equivalent account, if you consider MF MMKT funds to be that. Money-market funds use their capital to make relatively short-term loans, and, in the old days, their so-called "dividends" were really just a cut of the interest that the MF company obtained while lending those funds. While they also had disclaimers similar to the one that you mention, it was generally believed to be with "a wink and a nod", as the MF companies tried very hard to maintain the $1.00 NAV, and generally succeeded.
    If you recall, to prevent a massive run on those accounts, which would have reverberated through the entire economic structure, the government quickly "guaranteed" the safety of those funds for quite a while. It was that necessity which scared the government into trying later to pressure the MFs to cut loose the $1.00 NAV, and make clear the possibility of "without limitation, the loss of principal." But so far, not much change there.
    As I tried to say above, a fund like RPHYX looks to me to be structured in the way that the government would now like MMKT funds to be: low risk (with RPHYX due to the ultra-ST commercial paper that you mention), no guarantee implied, and no artificial maintenance of the NAV.
    It seems to me that the main problem with the governments MMF wish-list is that no one wants to borrow the money that's sitting there in all of those MMKT funds. Why would a company bother borrowing short-term when they can borrow long term at incredibly great rates? So the MMKT fund money just sits there, shrinking a bit as the theoretically non-existent inflation termites actually eat away at the pile, slowly but surely.
    The only reason that RPHYX works at all is because they don't loan new money, but rather buy up the tail-ends of old loans that are just about to mature. Unfortunately, there is a limited supply of that kind of stuff.
  • For holding "cash" - should I keep loading into RPHYX?
    Well, with RPHYX I'm up some $5600 over my basis. I can't give actual percentage gains because I've added to that account a number of different times, and while I do know the methodology to approximate the percentage gain it's just more trouble than I want to go to, so I just keep the YTD data.
    RSIVX is up 1.3% YTD, not too bad, but it's also a different animal than RPHYX.
    One reason that I like those two is that they're NTF at Schwab, so easy to get into and out of cheaply.
  • European ETFs and CEFs
    IRL. The New Ireland Fund, closed-end.
    http://cef.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=IRL
    http://news.morningstar.com/all/ViewNews.aspx?article=/MWR/MWR1176682US_univ.xml
    03/11/15 -- The New Ireland Fund, Inc. (NYSE: IRL) (the "Fund"), a closed-end fund, today announced that it will pay on March 30, 2015, a distribution of US$0.28343 per share to all shareholders of record as of March 23, 2015.
    "Your Fund's distribution policy (the "Distribution Policy") is to provide investors with a stable quarterly distribution out of current income, supplemented by realized capital gains and, to the extent necessary, paid-in capital. As announced in the press release issued on June 15, 2014, the Board has determined that the initial annual rate will be 8% per annum, payable in quarterly installments. .."
    http://news.morningstar.com/all/ViewNews.aspx?article=/MWR/MWR1181158US_univ.xml
    http://news.morningstar.com/all/ViewNews.aspx?article=/MWR/MWR1183434US_univ.xml
    ...I note it is right now trading at a bit better discount than the 3 or 6 month average. I owned it back in the 1990s and made money.
  • Betting On Private Companies
    GSVC (GSV Capital) was supposed to be the stock that allowed even the average person to get in early to the Twitters and Ubers of the world. It's down by half from three years ago. The Ubers of the world are looking bubble-ish to me at this point, I think partly because people are overly desperate for anything resembling growth.
  • Do Real Estate Funds Belong In Your Stock Portfolio?
    FYI: Real estate funds, attractive to investors for both capital appreciation and income-producing properties, have outperformed the average dividend mutual fund and the S&P 500 in the past 15 years.
    If you had $10,000 lying around to invest on Dec. 31, 1999, and you invested it in the average real estate mutual fund, your investment would have grown to $57,241 by March 17 this year, according to Morningstar Inc. data. The same amount invested in the average dividend fund would have grown to $25,068 by St. Patrick's Day. You'd have only $18,873 sitting in an account invested in the S&P 500.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTkxMjE4MzY=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=webLV0319_1K.png&docId=744157&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1063&caption=&id=744158
    U.S. News & World Report Ranking Of Real Estate Funds:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/real-estate
  • HQL Announces Share Buyback Program Renewal and I don't get it
    "The amount and timing of repurchases will be at the discretion of Tekla Capital Management LLC, the investment adviser to the Fund. There is no assurance that the Fund will purchase shares at any specific discount levels or in any specific amounts or on any specific date."
    It seems that the board is preserving the option for management to repurchase shares rather than announcing that it will do so.