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It’s certainly true that perhaps 70% of the dispersion of returns over a 5-to-10 year period are driven by macro-economic factors (Putin invades-> the EU sanctions-> economies falter-> the price of oil drops-> interest rates fall) but that fact is not useful because such events are unforecastable and their macro-level impacts are incalculably complex (try “what effect will European reaction to Putin’s missile transfer offer have on shadow interest rates in China?”).An essential albeit crude valuation tool – many valuation metrics cannot be meaningfully applied across borders and between regions; there’s simply too much complexity in the way different markets operate. Dividends are a universally applicable measure.
A way of identifying firms that will bounce less in adverse market conditions – firms with stable yields that are just “somewhat higher than average” tend to be resilient. Firms with very high dividend yields are often sending out distress signals.
A key and under-appreciated signal for the liquidity and solvency of a company – EMs are constantly beset by liquidity and credit shocks and unreliable capital markets compound the challenge. Companies don’t survive those shocks as easily as people imagine. The effects of liquidity and credit crunches range from firms that completely miss their revenue and earnings forecasts to those that drown themselves in debt or simply shutter. Against such challenges dividends provide a clear and useful signal of liquidity and solvency.
That said, he does believe that flaws in the construction of EM indexes makes it more likely that passive strategies will underperform:We’re proud of performance over the last few years. We have really benefited from the fact that our strategy was well-positioned for anemic growth environments. Three or four years ago a lot of people were buying the story of vibrant growth in the emerging markets, and many were willing to overpay for it. As we know, that growth did not materialize. There are signs that the deceleration of growth is over even if it’s not clear when the acceleration of growth might begin. A major source of return for our fund over 10 years is beta. We’re here to harness beta and hope for a little alpha.
Highlights from the questions:I’m actually a fan of passive investing if costs are low, churn is low, and the benchmark is soundly constructed. The main EM benchmark is disconnected from the market. The MSCI EM index imposes filters for scalability and replicability in pursuit of an index that’s easily tradable by major investors. That leads it to being not a really good benchmark. The emerging markets have $14 trillion in market capitalization; the MSCI Core index captures only $3.8 trillion of that amount and the Total Market index captures just $4.2 trillion. In the US, the Total Stock Market indexes capture 80% of the market. The comparable EM index captures barely 25%.
So if you invest in GE, you're blocked from any further investment in the seven industries in which it has operations?General Electric Co is a diversified company with products & services that range from aircraft engines, power generation, oil & gas production equipment, & household appliances to medical imaging, business & consumer financing and industrial products.
Bluetrend (Braga's fund) is available on the London market as a feeder fund (an "investment trust", sort of like a CEF in the US), as is AllBlue (although I haven't looked to see if that fund still has exposure to Bluetrend after the break off) Interesting that this fund is also a feeder fund for Bluetrend. London also has Third Point Offshore and a few others (the Brevan Howard funds, for example) and RIT Capital Partners (aka Rothschild Investment Trust.)Hey Scott, it's the same company, maybe not the same hedge fund (?), and actually BlueCrest, as of the first of the year, no longer has anything to do with the mutual fund. A woman named Leda Braga developed a trading system at BlueCrest and then split from BC to start her own company, Systematica Investments. That's whose investment vehicle EBCIX followed before the split, and continues now with the new company.
It's a tangled web the hedgies weave.
The Dalbar study, like Morningstar's, uses fund flows as a surrogate for investor returns. That is, if EM stock funds soar in 2015 but have a low level of assets while, say, large growth funds hold trillions but then crash, the former weighs lightly and the latter weighs heavily in assessing how the average stock investor did.QAIB uses data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), Standard & Poor’s, Barclays Capital Index Products and proprietary sources to compare mutual fund investor returns to an appropriate set of benchmarks. Covering the period from QAIB’s inception (January 1, 1984) to December 31, 2013, the study utilizes mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as the measure of investor behavior. These behaviors reflect the “average investor.” Based on this behavior, the analysis calculates the “average investor return” for various periods.
(2) I really dislike the quality of Dalbar's writing. They do a singularly poor job of explaining how they calculate things like the "Guess Right ratio" and their jumbled graphics detract from the argument.... all the relevant studies show that individuals underperform by a significant amount (we tend to buy high and sell low), Dalbar’s data (the study I reference in the piece) shows a gap that’s much larger than the other research. I should have noted that here. But it doesn’t change the primary point — our decision-making isn’t very good and needs to get much better. It just isn’t likely that it’s quite as bad as Dalbar portrays it.
For what interest it holds,The suggested approach consists of setting appropriate expectations, controlling investor exposure to risk, monitoring of risk tolerances and presenting forecasts in terms of probabilities.
Here is a snapshot (from MFO Premium beta site) of their lifetime performance:We are a family of six focused mutual funds, each designed to meet a different need and to complement each other when building a diversified investment plan. Whether you are just starting out in your career, or enjoying retirement today, we deliver top quality service and a wide range of investments to meet your changing needs.
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