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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RiverPark Commercial Real Estate Fund in registration
    Sub advisor
    http://www.talmagellc.com/investments.html
    At Talmage, we have been investing in commercial real estate debt alongside our clients since 2003. During this time, we have made over $10 billion of investments, including
    C M B'S, whole loans, mezzanine loans, B-notes, CDOs and bank debt. Prior to forming Talmage, our professionals had longstanding careers and helped develop the real estate debt investment platforms at firms such as Capital Trust and G. Soros Realty.
  • Gundlach Called Oil And Junk In 2015. What Will He Predict For 2016?
    FYI:
    DoubleLine CEO forecast slow 2015 inflation, low rate increase
    Flagship fund outperformed 98 percent of Morningstar peers
    No wonder thousands are expected to tune in today for Jeffrey Gundlach’s 2016 outlook.
    The DoubleLine Capital co-founder was mostly right on his calls a year ago: oil prices would fall, junk bonds would live up to their name, China was flashing danger signs and interest rates would go sideways.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-12/gundlach-power-as-oracle-faces-test-after-nailing-oil-junk-debt
  • Knives Still Falling ??
    Energy sector is more than a falling knife. It seems to be in a price reset and so can wallow for a long time in price discovery. I believe something fundamental has changed in the trading instruments that resulted overstated demand or understated supply not just a physical demand-supply situation.
    Biotech/Pharma may get to that stage once it no longer keeps producing high returns because a lot of the returns were from just money piling on to a hot sector. That creates volatility which is fine but I don't think most of the investment money coming via broad etfs and funds understand the risks in this space. Investing in clinical stage biotechs is like playing VC with startups where most of the exit upside has already been realized by the real VCs. They can simply cease to exist if clinical trials fail or FDA approval does not happen because of side effects. Bigger company pipelines are threatened because smaller startups would rather do an IPO or the acquisition costs are very high.
    It doesn't mean the whole space is in trouble. Some companies will do very well but picking them is beyond the capabilities of retail investors and even some smart investors and they might not even care if too much money is pouring in. Problem with this rising/falling tide space via broad ETFs and funds is that it is subject to shocks from bad news from any company as happened with Celgene today. A very large number of companies in this space will eventually fail so there will be a sequence of bad news and the broad ETFs and funds do not provide enough diversification. Might be good if you are a momentum trader. There might not be enough gains over a longer period to show for all of the volatility.
    The only thing I would trust in this kind of a market if one were to buy on dips is the S&P 500 and is likely the best one to pay off with such a move. It avoids most but not all of the sector-specific problems, currency problems, interest-rate problems, developing market problems and almost every other problem. US Economy is far from recession and all the investment money will have to go somewhere. Programmed money simply moves into such "safe" instruments to park the money other than cash.
    Energy, pharma/biotechs, financials (who seem to have run out of lucrative proprietary trading ideas under increased scrutiny and don't make much in traditional banking) will be value traps for a while in my opinion even of there might be frequent violent swings up.
    Obviously, I could be completely wrong about this. :)
  • DoubleLine Launches Gundlach-Managed Global Bond Fund
    FYI: (This is a folow-up article)
    DoubleLine Capital, the $85 billion investment firm run by its chief executive and chief investment officer, Jeffrey Gundlach, said it opened the DoubleLine Global Bond Fund to investors on Monday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-gundlach-idUSKCN0UP1K020160111
    Fund Symbols:
    I shares (DBLGX) and N shares (DLGBX)
  • pretty reasonable article on Whitebox
    There are both similarities and differences of faults with hedge funds and open end funds. In one sense, you're right about people tending to pile into some funds based on manager past performance.
    People piled into Gundlach's funds, even though they use "exotic financial derivatives like total return swaps". (See below.) IMHO use of exotic derivatives has become more commonplace - they're not limited to hedge funds and a few offbeat mutual funds as the article suggested. Though they're still insignificant if not absent from vanilla funds.
    People piled into DoubleLine, into Yacktman, and others based on the managers' long term past performance at substantially identical funds. Not on a short term (3 year) record at a fund that was substantially different. RSIVX by design holds longer term, often illiquid bonds, than RPHYX, as opposed short term bonds ("think 30-90 day maturity").
    So ISTM there is a qualitative difference between piling into funds like RSIVX (unproven management for that type of fund) or TFCIX or WBMAX (both with untested strategies for open end funds), and piling into proven management and strategies in the hedge fund arena. Another example of a mismatch between strategies and open end funds - stable value funds. There were (as I recall) over a dozen open end stable value funds attempted. They couldn't handle the open end fund daily redemption requirement.
    YACKX also floundered for its first couple of years. It was only in 1994, in a relatively flat market, that it began to shine. Yet people stuck with him. Quoting Yacktman: "My only real fear in 1993 was that people who put their money in during 1992 would take it out at a loss. I didn't want this to happen, because I knew my performance would come back. ... As it turned out, more money came in than went out."
    With hedge funds, accredited investors have the responsibility (and supposedly the opportunity) of investigating the offering. These "sophisticated" investors don't get the same disclosures as are required of open end funds. If managers have buried past failures, it's up to the investors to discover that.
    The mandated disclosures of open end funds are supposed to make it easier for the other 99%. It is their choice to accept or reject a disclosure that discloses little other than: "just trust us".
    DoubleLine funds and total return swaps:
    Reuters, Nov 16, 2015: RiverNorth/DoubleLine Strategic Income Fund possesses economic exposure to an aggregate of 1,103,373 shares of Common Stock [of FSC] due to certain cash-settled total return swap agreements."

    ThinkAdvisor, Nov 22, 2013
    “It’s [DSEEX] put together using a total-return swap,” Gundlach said of the fixed-income side of the fund.
    Probably other funds; this was a quick search.
  • 4 Managers Who Consistently Beat the Market
    FYI: (Scroll & Click On Article title At Top Of Google Search)
    Nobody said beating the market is easy. In any given year, historically speaking, fewer than half of active managers beat their benchmark, and about half of those do so purely as a matter of chance. There are, of course, some managers who beat the market year after year after year—but determining which manager is going to do that is next to impossible.
    But not totally impossible.
    Just four funds made the cut, all led by managers who are venerated in the industry, but not exactly household names. The biggest, $25.7 billion Harbor Capital Appreciation (ticker: HCAIX), has been run by Sig Segalas of Jennison Associates since 1990. The standout performer was Sam Isaly, a star in health-care investing but less well-known in the diversified stock fund universe; he steers the $1.6 billion Eaton Vance Worldwide Health Sciences (ETHSX). The other two were Jerome Dodson, manager of the $708 million socially responsible Parnassus fund (PARNX), and a little-known investor named David Carlson, whose $2.2 billion Elfun Trusts (ELFNX) is open only to General Electric’s 300,000 U.S. employees and retirees.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=The+Market+Beaters+Barron's
  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    Not following your reasoning (etfs easier to day-trade? kids dealing with fifo gains?), but yeah, I would stay w Danoff, and have. It is not as though there is no such thing as market-superior managers, contrary to what you read everywhere.
  • Portfolio Protection Strategy
    @MikeM- because I like your style, I'm giving you permission to use my all-purpose disclaimer. Have a good new year, Mike!
    MJG & Dex Disclaimer: the percentages cited above are for rhetorical purposes only, and while suggestive, may or may not be specifically accurate. Past performance, etc. Caveat Emptor. No representation is hereby made of any particular degree of accuracy. Offer may not be valid in some locations, and actual mileage may vary. Not approved by any governmental agency. Definitely NOT covered by FDIC. Warranty specifically excludes any reimbursement for damages incurred by or from use of this product. The opinions expressed are those of the poster only, and may or may not (but probably do) reflect the opinion(s) of Professor David Snowball (@David_Snowball). Loss of value or capital is possible. Other than the exceptions herein specifically stated, we stand well behind and have every confidence in the quality of our products. ©
  • Art Cashin: "A Strange Jobs Number"
    "Return on capital requires wages to be lower and lower while the consumption based economics to justify that return requires higher and higher wages."
    I was thinking that very thing as I read the papers this morning, although certainly not in your highfalutin prose. :) It was more like "how can these bastards complain about lousy consumer consumption when they are doing everything possible to eliminate jobs and hold down pay?"
    You are absolutely right about the paradox. If dummies like me can see this how come our vaunted high-level economics wizards apparently can't? (You don't suppose that they've been bought off, by any chance?)
  • Art Cashin: "A Strange Jobs Number"
    If only the median and weighted wages (not including return on capital) were published and followed as a guage of economy whose growth was the goal, we would all be in a better shape. Not going to happen in this paradoxical capitalistic system. Return on capital requires wages to be lower and lower while the consumption based economics to justify that return requires higher and higher wages.
    And if we really wanted to have corporations not trying to manipulate markets but growing their companies that requires investments in skilled workforce that wouldl help the economy, we would have the executive salaries tied not to stock prices but to increases in shareholder equity in the balance sheets. Most CEOs would be out of a job.
    For that to happen ideological blindfolds have to come off and the economists have to grow some %^$&s and brains. :)
  • Anyone buying at these levels?
    Goldman cuts S&P 500 earnings outlook
    Jan 8 2016, 08:00 ET | By: Stephen Alpher
    Goldman's equity team cuts $3 per share from its expectation of S&P 500 E P S for 2015-2017. The new numbers are $106, $117, and $126, respectively.The revision means annual E P S growth of -7% in 2015 (the worst performance since 2008), 11% in 2015, and 8% in 2017.At issue, naturally, is energy, and that sector last year likely posted a decline in operating E P S for the first time in 48 years. Also important topics are margins that appear to have peaked, and the risk of a broader economic slowdown.On margins, it's all about tech, and in tech it's all about Apple. Goldman expects tech margins to peak this year and then begin to decline. If you can find an S&P 500 company that can raise margins, buy it.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3020796-goldman-cuts-s-and-p-500-earnings-outlook
    Market Commentary (posted Jan 7th 2016) from OTTER CREEK LONG/SHORT OPPORTUNITY FUND OTCRX
    As we have discussed in prior letters, we believe the overall valuation in both the equity and bond markets are not overly attractive on an absolute basis
    considering the fundamental growth outlook. S&P 500 earnings are expected to be around $125 per share in 2016 implying a price to earnings ratio of
    approximately 16x – near historical averages – however, we see potential downside risk to earnings estimates this year. The US economy continues to grow
    modestly despite a sluggish industrial and commodity environment. However, we believe that there are lingering risks surrounding China which combined with
    the potential for ongoing stress in credit markets should be a pause for concern going forward.
    As we enter January, we have approximately 18% of the Fund in cash and are looking opportunistically to deploy that capital. We expect markets to be volatile
    as the Federal Reserve attempts to gradually increase interest rates in the midst of moderate domestic growth and soft global growth trends. We look forward to
    an in-depth discussion on broader macro outlook, portfolio positioning, and new ideas during our quarterly conference call on January 20th
    http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Calls Unconstrained Bond Funds A 'Gimmick' And Constrained
    Strange, since his Flexible Income fund is, essentially, an unconstrained fund. Prospectus says "Adviser has broad flexibility to use various investment strategies and to invest in a wide variety of instruments that the Adviser believes offer the potential for current income, capital appreciation, or both. The fund is not constrained by management." If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Calls Unconstrained Bond Funds A 'Gimmick' And Constrained
    FYI: Jeffrey Gundlach doesn't see a bright future for unconstrained bond funds, with the notable exception of his own DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund (DFLEX), which he doesn't really identify as unconstrained.
    “The category is something of a gimmick, because the strategy sounds nimble, but the allure is really the hope that they will be able to avoid interest-rate risk,” the founder of DoubleLine Capital told InvestmentNews in a phone interview
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160106/BLOG12/160109970?template=printart
  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    I swapped FAIRX into FAAFX to avoid the capital gains distribution last year while staying with Berkowitz. I'll give him a couple more years, but if he doesn't recover, I think I'm abandoning active management altogether. If you take a fund which does amazingly for 15 years and has all the ingredients for continued success, then it underperforms and keeps underperforming, then there's just no way to pick a good active fund. SEQUX seems to be proving another example of that. But hey, I haven't lost hope yet!
  • Checking In
    Here is how I faired in 2015 according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager. My three best funds were SPECX (+7.1%) ... AGTHX (+5.4%) ... & ANWPX (+5.3%). My three worst funds were THDAX (-15.3%) ... TOLLX (-14.4%) ... & PGUAX (-10.3%) My three worst hybrid funds were FKINX (-7.8%) ... HWIAX (-7.6%) ... and CAPAX (-6.2%) My three best hybrid funds were ABALX (+1.7%) ... FRINX (+1.5%) ...and BAICX (-0.9%). Overall I was down by -2.2%. I have not received my yearending brokerage statement which will reflect how I truly faired as I had a spiff that produced a good return and this would factor in 2015 performance. Plus, I had a loss in two funds I sold ... but, I had gains in some other funds that I trimmed my position in.
  • Taxes On Inherited Mutual Funds
    FYI: Many investors use mutual funds throughout their lives to invest. When it comes time to sell mutual funds, dealing with taxes can be complicated, especially if you've reinvested dividends and capital gains distributions into additional shares. For those inheriting mutual funds, the tax aspects are actually much simpler. Let's take a look at some of the tax implications of inherited mutual funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.sfgate.com/business/fool/article/Taxes-on-Inherited-Mutual-Funds-6736730.php
  • Checking In
    @vkt
    Thank you.
    Down 9%? That is serious damage!
    Hmmm.
    Yep, certainly if you need to sell.
    But, glancing over some notable funds (thru Nov anyway), I'm in good company ...
    PIMCO ALL ASSET ALL AUTHORITY INST (PAUIX) -13.5
    T ROWE PRICE NEW ERA (PRNEX) -12.9
    BERWYN CORNERSTONE (BERCX) -12.8
    THIRD AVENUE INTERNATIONAL VALUE INST (TAVIX) -12.8
    YACKTMAN SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES INST (YASLX) -12.7
    FPA CAPITAL (FPPTX) -12.3
    AQR FUNDS: AQR RISK PARITY II HV I (QRHIX) -12.2
    GABELLI VALUE 25 A (GABVX) -11.4
    GREENLEAF INCOME GROWTH (GIGFX) -11.3
    DODGE & COX INTERNATIONAL STOCK (DODFX) -11.2
    FRANKLIN INCOME A (FKINX) -10.7
    JANUS CONTRARIAN D (JACNX) -10.5
    WADDELL & REED ADVISORS HIGH INCOME A (UNHIX) -10.5
    PIMCO ALL ASSET INST (PAAIX) -10
    FORUM FUNDS: BECK MACK & OLIVER PARTNERS (BMPEX) -9.8
    ARIEL FOCUS INV (ARFFX) -9.7
    IVY ASSET STRATEGY C (WASCX) -9.4
    BRIDGEWAY ULTRA-SMALL COMPANY (BRUSX) -9
    It was a lame year.
    Break, break.
    Yes, backward-looking performance-based metrics have their limitations, indeed.
    c
  • Muni High Yield Bonds - the place to be - Thanks Junkster

    Edit: Still think the junk corporates may surprise in 2016. Albeit I don't trade on what I think, just what I see.

    Also, keep an eye on Emerging Markets High Yield Bonds -Premx - the strength in the $ could provide a good dividend yield and cap gains.

    Just jumped into GIM. I'm looking for a rebound after a tough year.