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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending May 10, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
    *** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
    --- MINT = +.09% / +2.3% Pimco Ultra Short Term Enhanced Bonds
    --- EWW = +2.5% / +.91% (I Shares, Mexico)
    MMKT note: Fidelity core mmkt's yields remain basically unchanged this week, having .01% yields downward, with core acct's yields at 4.95% (SPAXX) and 4.98% (FDRXX).
    NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with generally positive performance in many sectors through a very erratic market week. China large cap (FXI etf) , had another week of 'performance+', with a +15.6 YTD; as well as DXJ etf(Japan large cap), which is now +23.9 YTD. Bonds in many sectors ended the total week performance with mixed gains. Bond funds ranged from +.09% to a +.73%, with the ultra short term being the lowest positive (as expected) and the very long term being the best sectors. See the 'graphic' link at the beginning of this write for details of weekly returns.
    NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • How a Niche Fund Became the Biggest Active ETF
    The JEPI fund managers also run JHEQX which has an inception date of 12/13/2013.
    These two funds are not clones.
    JEPI is "designed to provide current income while maintaining prospects for capital appreciation."
    JHEQX is "designed to provide capital appreciation through a diversified equity portfolio,
    while hedging overall market exposure
    ."
    With that said, here's a Portfolio Visualizer Backtest for JHEQX, RLBGX, VWENX, and VFIAX.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5276rWmbK9uD5mgRq56Fhw
  • Miller Convertible Plus Fund (I class) to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1414039/000158064224002661/millerconvert_497.htm
    497 1 millerconvert_497.htm 497
    Ticker Symbol By Class I
    Miller Convertible Plus Fund MCPIX
    Supplement dated May 10, 2024 to the Fund’s Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated March 1, 2024
    This Supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI. This Supplement supersedes any information to the contrary in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of Miller Investment Trust (the “Trust”) has concluded, based upon the recommendation of Wellesley Asset Management Inc., that it is in the best interests of the Miller Convertible Plus Fund (the “Fund”) and its shareholders that the Fund be liquidated. Pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) approved by the Board of Trustees, the Fund will be liquidated and dissolved on or about June 10, 2024.
    The Fund is closed to all new investments as of May 10, 2024. The Plan provides that the Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio as soon as is reasonable and practicable. The Fund may pursue its stated investment objective until June 10, 2024, but may, at the discretion of the Adviser and in accordance with its Prospectus, liquidate its portfolio prior to June 10, 2024, and invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. On or about the close of business on June 10, 2024, the Fund will distribute pro rata all its assets in cash to its shareholders and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled.
    Prior to June 10, 2024, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section of the Fund’s Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, you will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes (and for most state and local income tax purposes) on a redemption of your shares, whether as a result of a redemption that you initiate or upon the final liquidating distribution by the Fund, based on the difference between the amount you receive and your tax basis in your shares. The Fund may make one or more distributions of income and/or net capital gains on or prior to June 10, 2024, in order to eliminate Fund-level taxes. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation. Plan sponsors or plan administrative agents should notify participants that the Fund is liquidating and should provide information about alternative investment options.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Fund’s Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information each dated March 1, 2024 which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-877-441-4434. The Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information may be obtained by visiting www.MillerFamilyOfFunds.com. You should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • One Out of Every 24 NYC Residents is Now a Millionaire - Bloomberg
    How far does $1M go in to NYC (Manhattan)? Not very. A $50K salary elsewhere would need to be $150K in NYC. Use this Calculator (linked below) to compare costs to where you live now.
    cost-of-living/index
    Doesn't that figure really depend on where "elsewhere" is? Even Boise, Idaho would cost over 25% more than your base $50K, using the CNN calculator.
    And for that matter it also matters where "here" is - Manhattan's population is less than 20% of NYC's; Manhattan's land area is under 8% of NYC's.
    According to the same calculator, one would need "only" $87K to live in Queens (another part of NYC) - where 40% more people live than in Manhattan. While that's far from inexpensive, it helps to look at where "real" people live. Queens has the reputation of being NYC's bedroom borough.

    Also welcome to extremes..some have...many have not. 25% are millionaire and 20% are below the poverty line.
    ...
    cost-of-living-calculator/city-life/new-york-manhattan-ny
    This NerdWallet site is similarly confused about NYC. The URL and the drop down city selector say "Manhattan", and its top line figure, "median salary in New York (Manhattan), NY is:$51,270. Yet in the detail data, it gives the population as 8M (all of NYC) and the average salary per person as $31,417. Hard to tell what "average" means, though I'm guessing it is calculated across the whole city, not just the 1/5 of people living in Manhattan.
    Here are some "alternative facts". Directly from the US Census Bureau, the per capita income in NYC (8M people) is $48,066. Since not everyone works, that makes the mean (not median) salary higher than $48K. Another page (SmartAsset) claims that "According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, the average individual income in New York City is $107,000."
    The level of poverty in NYC is not good, though it is lower than cities such as Detroit, Laredo, Cincinnati, Memphis, Baton Rouge (all above 25%), Richmond, Miami, Tuscon, Atlanta, Dallas, Columbus (all above 20%). The whole country needs to do better.
    100 largest US cities ranked by poverty level (sourced from US Census Bureau)
    US metro areas w/highest and lowest poverty rates - Madison Trust Co. analysis of Census Bureau data - percentage of households w/income under $35K (noting that HHS defines poverty line as $30K income).
    That last source gives Albany, GA as the 6th poorest metropolitan area. I mention this because that is the baseline area used by CNN/Money (see above) for how far $50K would go in other areas.
    Well, NY has about 4% millionaires, but it is still behind Tel Aviv which has about 10%.
    https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/economy/1663172527-israel-nearly-1-in-10-tel-aviv-residents-is-a-millionaire-study
    FD makes a different apples-to-oranges error. Consistent source (Henley and Partners) cited, but different years. The i24 News piece references the 2022 study which reported 42,400 millionaires in Tel Aviv (detailed data is in Middle East top 5), while the current study reports "only" 24,300. Over a 40% decline.
    https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/wealthiest-cities-2024
  • About Debt - Morgan Housel and Matt Levine
    Interesting article and the graphics in the article remind me of our MFO graphic:
    Morgan Housel:
    I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
    how-i-think-about-debt
    Also this, from Matt Levine, regarding Debt and "Narrow Banking"
    The traditional view of banks is that they have lots of money: They take deposits from their customers, giving them cheap funding that they then use to make corporate loans and mortgages and credit cards and everything else. [1] But when the actual bankers at Barclays think about how to fund their credit cards, they come up with ideas like “ask Blackstone for the money.” Blackstone has lots of money too, but its money comes not from bank depositors — who can withdraw their money at any time — but, in this case, from insurance customers, who have longer-term and more predictable liabilities. This makes Blackstone’s funding safer: Its customers are not going to ask for their money back all at once, the way that Barclays’ customers theoretically might (and the way that some banks’ customers actually have). Everyone knows this, which is why Barclays is subject to strict banking capital requirements, [2] making it expensive for it to do credit-card loans, while Blackstone is not, [3] making it cheaper for it to provide the money for those loans.
    I mean, “cheaper” in some sense; Arroyo and Johnson add that “because non-banks have higher costs of funding, consumers and businesses may see loan rates rise.” The traditional view is that non-banks have higher costs of funding than banks: Blackstone’s insurance customers want to earn a juicy return on their investment in risky credit-card assets, while Barclays’ depositors are happy to get a return of 0% on their checking-account balances. It’s just that those cheap deposits are not actually so cheap anymore, when you take into account their risk, and the regulation designed to confine that risk. Barclays is in the traditional business of lulling depositors into lending it money at 0% so it can turn around and lend money to credit-card customers at 20%, but that trick no longer works as well as it used to.
    One thing I wonder about is: If you were designing a financial system from scratch, in 2024, would you come up with banking? That central traditional trick of banks — that they fund themselves with safe short-term demand deposits, and use depositors’ money to invest in risky longer-term loans, with all of the run risk and regulatory supervision and It’s a Wonderful Life-ness that that involves — would you recreate that if you were starting over?
    Banks-are-still-where-the-money-isn-t
  • How can I maneuver these accounts?
    Hopefully, I can explain the situation and my objective.
    I have retirement accounts and non-retirement accounts at two institutions. I set this up because I did not want to have all at one institution plus I was able to purchase funds at one that I could not at the other. These dual objectives remain, but as I will explain, two funds are in focus. The below four accounts are all retirement accounts and being that I no longer have earned income, I can no longer contribute to a retirement plan.
    Institution A
    I am not certain where the names of these accounts came from.
    I have a “Rollover Brokerage Account”. I have no problem selling any fund that is currently in this account - $460k current value.
    I have a “Roth IRA Brokerage Account” (converted to a Roth many years ago). In this account, I own Artisan International Value (ARTKX) and T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) - $501k current value.
    Institution B
    I am not certain where the names of these accounts came from.
    I have a “Rollover IRA Account”. I have no problem selling any fund that is currently in this account - $535k current value.
    I have a “Roth Conversion Account” (converted to a Roth many years ago). In this account, I own Artisan International Value (ARTKX) - $176k current value.
    As I recall, I have kept some of these fund separate (pure) mainly for asset protection (right or wrong). I believe that the “Rollover IRA Account” in Institution A came from an IRA. I believe the “Rollover Brokerage Account” in Institution B also came from an IRA. I now have an umbrella policy for which the coverage exceeds the value of all my retirement accounts.
    My objective is to buy more ARTKX and PRWCX and I can't do this in my “Roth IRA Brokerage Account” at institution A or in my “Roth Conversion Account” in institution B. I could purchase all equity TCAF (which would be fine) without any maneuvering, but that does not address the problem with ARTKX. Either ARTKX or PRWCX can be purchased at A or B and a purchase fee is a non-factor.
    I do not see an obvious solution. Combining both Roth accounts does not do anything for me other than allow me to allocate between ARTKX and PRWCX. Combining Traditional IRA's does not do anything for me because I do not own ARTKX or PRWCX in either. I have to check if either of the “Rollover” accounts in A and B are Roth accounts. If so, that would be an answer, but I doubt either are as they do not contain the word “Roth”. That seems to leave a Roth conversion in A or B, which I do not want as I am in a 24% marginal and 18% effective tax bracket, and to purchase a good amount of ARTKX or PRWCX, I would have to Roth an amount that would even put me in a higher tax bracket.
    Am I boxed out of purchasing more ARTKX and PRWCX?
  • Best Fund Managers?
    @sma3 - I can't argue that about SCHD at all. All I was trying to say originally is that it wasn't paying enough to suit my goals for that type of investment.
    When I set out on this path (i.e. dividend growth investor) I was looking for stocks that had a track record of consistent, long-term dividend growth with the opportunity for capital appreciation as a secondary objective. The funds I scoured (many) all seemed to be paying yields that one could easily increase (often substantially) by simply investing in their top-5 or 10 picks. TIBIX was the fund I was using back then but after a few years of doing as advertised, building their income, it stagnated and eventually came to a halt. I wasn't smart enough to figure out why that happened and I wasn't sure any similar fund wouldn't do exactly the same.
    As also previously mentioned, I get that it's not everyones cup of tea. I'll also admit that holding my current choices may constrain the capital appreciation aspect but the income continues to increase which was my primary objective.
  • BCSAX. BlackRock commodities
    That's another trick.
    CEFs that have managed-distribution policies set an attractive distribution rate. But if that isn't supported by fund income, the difference is ROC - return of capital (i.e. your own money). ROCs aren't taxed on distribution but reduce the cost basis (thankfully, major brokers keep track of this), so when you sell, you end up paying higher tax.
    ROCs are final only after the yearend, but the CEFs must report estimated ROC monthly; see April report for FOF. As FOF is a CEF of CEFs, ROCs can be from FOF or the underlying CEFs.
    https://assets-prod.cohenandsteers.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/29181236/FOF-Section-19-Notice-Apr-2024.pdf
    Have you looked at ETFs of CEFs?
    Edit/Add. Interesting that FOF doesn't disclose the ERs attributed to its underlying funds in the usual documents. Its reported fee of 0.95% looks misleading for a CEF of CEFs.
  • BCSAX. BlackRock commodities
    A Basic Guide To Financial Derivatives
    Interesting line: ”Most derivatives are margin-powered, meaning you may be able to enter into them putting up relatively little of your own money. This is helpful when you’re trying to spread money out across many investments to optimize returns without tying a lot up in any one place, and it can also lead to much greater returns than you could get with your cash alone.”
    Just to illustrate one possible method of boosting a fund distribution (in this case by a CEF I own):
    * ”The Fund may pay distributions in excess of its net investment company taxable income, and this excess would be a retum of capital distributed from the Fund's assets.” FOF Fact Sheet
    Technically a “distribution” is not a ”dividend”. But taken at a glance may at first appear so.
    Watch out! @Crash! Be sure to read the fine print. :)
    I think it was Marty Zweig who said, “It’s treacherous out there.”
  • 3 Investing Pros Lay Out Their Dividend Strategies—and Stock Picks

    An article from Barrons with apologies for any paywall(s) encountered.
    However, from the comments section there was this posted by a reader (not I):
    "A quote from the article:
    “It’s been a challenging market for dividend investing,” says one of those managers,"
    Yes. It's very challenging to beat the no brainer bread & butter SP500 Index. Which way is better :
    1) Buying a dividend paying fund & holding for the long run? or
    2) Buying the no brainer bread & butter SP500 index & withdraw the % yield difference, & hold for the long run?
    Lets mine the data:
    Fund Yield ER YTD 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 10yr Delta
    SPY 1.35 0.10 5.5 20.4 21.4 19.9 70.1 167
    NOBL 1.79 0.35 1.7 3.7 5.6 7.5 40.4 118 -49%
    LCEAX 2.09 0.82 3.4 2.7 -6.7 -18.3 -7.8 4.2 -163%
    INUTX 2.76 1.05 3.6 5.8 -1.8 -6.4 -2.8 -11.8 -179%
    VDIGX 1.69 0.30 1.0 4.4 4.1 4.0 30.9 73.2 -94
    If you own any of the dividend funds you are not a happy investor after reading this post. Because you would would have done much better owning the no brainer bread & butter SP500 Index fund & had the capital appreciation cushion to pay yourself a much higher yield if wanted to."
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending May 3, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
    *** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
    --- MINT = +.12% / +2.21% Pimco Ultra Short Term Enhanced Bonds
    --- EWW = -.07% / -1.55% (I Shares, Mexico)
    MMKT note: Fidelity core mmkt's yields remain basically unchanged this week, with core acct's yields at 4.96% (SPAXX) and 4.99% (FDRXX).
    NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with generally positive performance in many sectors through a very erratic market week. China large cap (FXI etf) , had a second week of 'performance+'. Bonds in many sectors ended the total week performance with decent gains. Bond funds ranged from +.12% to a +2.77%, with the ultra short term being the lowest positive (as expected) and the very long term being the best sectors. See the 'graphic' link at the beginning of this write for details of weekly returns.
    NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Fidelity raising fees on Vanguard and Dodge & Cox + several ETFs on 06-03-24
    Fidelity Investments (05-03-24):
    Effective June 3, 2024, the transaction fee for Vanguard and Dodge & Cox mutual funds will increase from $75 to $100 per purchase. Also effective June 3, 2024, participants purchasing shares in applicable ETFs will now be subject to a new service fee of up to $100 per purchase. For purchase orders below $2,000, the service fee will be reduced to an amount that is approximately 5% of the purchase value. The complete list of ETFs currently subject to this service fee can be found here, and will be updated periodically.
    UPDATE 05-09-24: Just got to reading May MFO Commentary and saw that @TheShadow had already highlighted the ETF part in Briefly Noted (05-01-24):
    Fidelity Investments is planning to charge a $100 servicing fee when placing buy orders on exchange-traded funds issued by nine firms. The new servicing charge, which may be imposed on ETFs issued by Simplify Asset Management, AXS Investments, Day Hagan, Sterling Capital, Cambiar, Regents Park, Rayliant, Adaptive, and Running Oak, is set to take effect on June 3. The new fee will apply to ETFs that do not participate in a maintenance arrangement with Fidelity. Fidelity may update its “Surcharge-Eligible ETF” list again.
    It seems like the ETF list had indeed been shortened rather dramatically in just a couple of days, so it might be worth checking the Fidelity link (same as above) periodically to see if they decide to further reduce or entirely eliminate it.
    In the same spirit, I sure hope that they stop at Vanguard and Dodge & Cox with the elevated fees as well. Please post if you see any updates re transaction fee policies on the mutual funds side.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "How Schwab handles free cash is the only serious problem I've had with them since moving from TD back in Oct 2020."
    I thought their handling cash has been the same ever since the acquisition was announced. So, even if you were to stay with TD until next week, the irritation would have been the same. The free cash situation has been worse at TD but I tolerated for the better customer service.
    @Graust,
    I moved most of the positions that are not somewhat permanent out of TD so they do not go to Schwab, and moved somewhat permanent positions to Schwab.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    From May 1st market commentary by the Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX) co-manager Eric Cinnamond.
    Original blog post can be found here: https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/undateable
    *****************************************************************************************************************************
    Undateable
    May 1, 2024
    You can learn a lot about the financial markets by watching Seinfeld. In season 7 episode 114, Jerry and Elaine have a conversation about the lack of dating opportunities. Although they were talking about the percentage of people they consider dateable, by making some minor changes to the script, their conversation fits the current stock market perfectly.
    Jerry: Elaine, what percentage of people [stocks] would you say are good looking [attractively priced]?
    Elaine: 25%
    Jerry: 25%? No way. It’s like 4% to 6%. It’s a 20 to 1 shot.
    Elaine: You’re way off.
    Jerry: Way off? Have you been to the motor vehicle bureau [screened through stocks]? It’s a leper colony down there [horrendous opportunity set].
    Elaine: Basically, what you’re saying is 95% of the population [the stock market] is undateable [overvalued]?
    Jerry: Undateable [overvalued]!
    Elaine: Then how are all of these people getting together [why are all these people buying stocks]?
    Jerry: Alcohol
    As if our dating scene couldn’t get much worse, the S&P 600 soared 15% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Encouraged by the Federal Reserve’s year-end pivot, investors piled into stocks, attempting to front run the return of easy money.
    At the time, we were baffled as to why the Fed was in such a rush to cut rates. For the most part, corporate earnings remained inflated. Financial conditions were already loosening, with equity valuations elevated and credit spreads tight. Home prices were also rising and remained out of reach for millions of Americans. And while the rate of inflation had declined, many of the items helping inflation moderate were plateauing, and in some cases, reversing. Further, accumulated inflation remained a serious problem, putting pressure on middle- and lower-income consumers and keeping inflation expectations elevated.
    Unsurprisingly, by pivoting before the inflation battle was won, the Fed unleashed another round of asset inflation, bolstering demand and pricing power. Instead of declining back to the Fed’s 2% target, inflation bottomed and is on the rise again. To date, the Fed’s 2023 preemptive pivot is aging about as well as its “inflation is transitory” assurances in 2021.
    Instead of declaring victory on inflation, we believe the Fed prematurely signaled rate cuts to head off building threats to asset prices and the economy. While there are many risks to defuse, we believe refinancing risk was, and remains, near the top of the Fed’s list of concerns. With each passing day, the amount of low-cost government and corporate debt nearing maturity grows.
    Extremely low interest rates allowed the U.S. government to borrow aggressively, supporting massive fiscal deficits and artificially inflating economic growth. Corporations also benefited from elevated government spending and lower rates. Low-cost debt allowed companies to acquire, fund generous dividends, and turbocharge earnings per share (EPS) through buybacks and depressed interest expense.
    As accumulated inflation continues to build, along with a seemingly endless supply of U.S. Treasuries, we believe the era of ultra-low interest rates has ended. With interest rates remaining higher for longer, a growing number of businesses are facing difficult refinancing decisions as their maturity walls approach. While some are pushing off the decision—hoping rates will decline—the market isn’t waiting and is beginning to sniff out companies that require funding over the next 1-2 years.
    As we search through our opportunity set of small cap companies, many of the stocks that have performed poorly have bonds approaching maturity or have refinancing risk. For example, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store’s stock (symbol: CBRL) has fallen 45% over the past year and 61% from its 2021 high. Cracker Barrel operates restaurants that are typically located along interstate highways. We know their home-style country food well, as we hold Palm Valley’s annual founders meeting at a local Cracker Barrel (and yes, we all order from the value menu!).
    image
    Similar to many consumer companies that cater to the middle class, Cracker Barrel’s traffic growth has slowed and has recently turned negative. Accumulated inflation has placed stress on discretionary spending and many of the casual dining companies we follow. Management expects industry and traffic challenges to continue. Based on analyst estimates, adjusted EPS is expected to decline from $5.47 in fiscal 2023 (ending July 31) to $4.60/share in fiscal 2024.
    Even as operating results have weakened, Cracker Barrel has remained committed to its generous quarterly dividend of $1.30/share. If maintained, the $5.20/share in annual dividends will exceed this year’s expected net income. The company has also been an active buyer of its stock, purchasing $184 million over the past three fiscal years (2021-2023). Combined, dividends and buybacks have consumed $447 million in cash over the past three years versus $461 million of free cash flow.
    With practically all of Cracker Barrel’s free cash flow being consumed by dividends and buybacks, debt reduction doesn’t appear to be a priority. As of January 26, 2024, debt was $452 million. Based on 2024 estimated EBITDA of $242 million, debt to EBITDA is 1.87x, or slightly above the high-end of the company’s target range of 1.3x to 1.7x.
    On June 18, 2021, Cracker Barrel opportunistically issued a $300 million convertible bond with a 0.625% coupon. At the time of issuance, its stock was trading at $150.51. With a conversion price of $188, the bonds had a conversion premium of 25%. Currently, Cracker Barrel’s stock is trading near $59; therefore, the odds of the bond converting to equity before maturity are low. With a maturity of June 15, 2026, refinancing will likely become an increasingly important issue for the company and investors.
    image
    Cracker Barrel has $511 million available on its $700 million credit facility that could be used to fund its convertible bond maturity. However, the weighted average interest rate on the credit facility is currently 6.96% versus the 0.625% coupon on the convertible bond. Assuming the credit facility is used to fund its bond maturity, at current rates, Cracker Barrel’s interest expense would increase $19 million, causing a meaningful hit to earnings. For reference, earnings before interest expense and taxes (EBIT) in 2023 were $120.6 million. Like many companies with debt, Cracker Barrel’s cost of borrowing has shifted from an earnings tailwind to headwind.
    We classify Cracker Barrel as a cyclical business. To consider cyclical businesses for purchase, we require a debt to normalized free cash flow ratio of 3x or less. Based on our free cash flow estimate, Cracker Barrel currently has too much financial leverage for our absolute return strategy. Nevertheless, its substantially lower market capitalization has caught our attention, and we’ll monitor its balance sheet closely for potential deleveraging catalysts, such as a cut in its dividend or sale-leasebacks of owned properties.
    The small cap dating scene remains unattractive, in our opinion. However, for many consumer discretionary companies with debt, equity prices have fallen sharply, and valuations have become more attractive. That said, these aren’t dream dates! Cyclical companies with debt often come with a lot of baggage and potential drama. Before committing and getting too serious, we recommend stress testing the balance sheet and cash flow by including periods with high unemployment and tightening credit conditions. And if alcohol is needed to stomach the risk, we suggest patience and waiting for a better match. When it comes to leveraged cyclicals, there are plenty of fish in the sea!
    Eric Cinnamond
    eric@palmvalleycapital.com
  • Best Fund Managers?
    @Old-Joe - thanks. It kinda does but I mitigate it by using only the bluest of the blue chips or other high quality holdings that are tops in class. IOW I try not to include anything gimmicky or something that I need to be on like a hawk. So currently it's packed with the likes of ABBV, MCD, EPD, LYB, NNN, O, PEP, TGT and others. Through sheer luck I've got substantial capital gains in all of these and any financial advisor worth their salt would probably advise me to sell them but I'm not in the mood or so inclined. They do what I was hoping for and I just try to stay out of the way.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Slightly OT question (for a Buy/Sell thread), but we are moving to Schwab for good from TD Ameritrade next weekend: are the money market holdings at Schwab considered investable cash, or do you have to sell the money market funds first and then trade them the next day?
    TIA
    You need to sell first, which adds friction/delay to transactions you might want to pounce on. Though I think they are T+1 so there's only a day's delay, but still.
    I still have a large chunk of cash sitting in the Schwab sweep account b/c I don't want to play the game of buying/selling MMFs before making stock purchases. And since I really don't want interest income at the moment (taxed at my W-2 rate) I'm okay with Schwab making some $$ off of it by paying .001 or whatever it is nowdays.
    How Schwab handles free cash is the only serious problem I've had with them since moving from TD back in Oct 2020.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @MikwW - from MT Newswire
    05:19 PM EDT, 05/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Apple ( AAPL ) late Thursday reported a surprise increase in fiscal second-quarter earnings despite a slowdown in iPhone sales while the technology giant announced additional stock repurchase authorization of up to $110 billion.
    Per-share earnings rose to $1.53 for the quarter ended March 30 from $1.52 a year earlier, compared with the GAAP consensus on Capital IQ for the metric to fall to $1.51. Net sales fell 4% to $90.75 billion, but came in ahead of Wall Street's $90.45 billion view.
    Shares were up 7.5% in after-hours trading Thursday.
    The company's additional $110 billion buyback plan reflects "confidence in Apple's ( AAPL ) future and the value we see in our stock," Maestri said.
    Apple ( AAPL ) raised its quarterly cash dividend by 4% to $0.25 per share, payable May 16 to shareholders of record on May 13.
    Price: 185.57, Change: +12.54, Percent Change: +7.25
  • "Our service is terrible but we'll charge you $100 to transfer your account."
    I'm sorry some of you have had poor experiences with Vanguard. Our experiences have been exactly the opposite. We have had accounts with Vanguard for 30+ years and have received excellent support. I don't want newbies reading this thread to think Vanguard is uniformly bad. They deliver excellent products for extremely competitive prices. Their fee structure may be designed to discourage millions of tiny little accounts, but those are the bane of any mutual fund / etf company.
    Agree, we do not want any newbies reading this thread to be misdirected.
    I stayed away from participating on this and other threads discussing about Vanguard's negative virtues but your post prompted me to share my experience. I have a 7 figure account with Vanguard, which is my first investment account opened 30 years ago. While all brokerages' service quality has dropped since beginning of Covid, many are slowly recovering. Vanguard service quality stunk for more than 5 years and does not show any promise of abating. Rich folk do not care about costs of their investments but they care about total returns and quality of service is why they put their money in venture capital, private equity, and other structured products. Costs are important to the tiny investors that presumably (according to you) Vanguard is trying to restrict / kick out. I do not mind paying to encourage the tiny investor. Over the years, I sent many written suggestions to Vanguard to improve their service quality and then decided to keep my silence. Vanguard has a culture problem and has become the Boeing of investment firms.
    Please see my previous post for what I am doing now.
  • "Our service is terrible but we'll charge you $100 to transfer your account."
    @MSF. I read the update links you noted. I wonder how many will actually read them and get caught up in this web of customer malfeasance. And how many more will transfer or close their accounts? Does Vanguard care? I think not. I was able to transfer my Admiral funds but eventually found comparable Vanguard or other company ETF's that I switched the funds into, if the capital gains were not much of a factor. Thanks for the links!
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yes, you've got it @Crash. I usually place it when a stock has good gains, and I don't want to lose them. If a stock has reached or is close to fair value it may be time to implement a trailing stop. The percentage you put in for the stop (sell) continues to move the sell price up as the stock increases. Again, there are situations where you can get burnt selling on low spikes, usually with volatile small or low volume stocks.