FYI: When it comes to investing, women often get a bad rap: They lack confidence, they’re less knowledgeable than men, they’re afraid to take risks, according to conventional wisdom. A recent survey from Capital Group confirms that eight in 10 women have encountered one or more of these or other stereotypes about their investing expertise, suggesting that, when it comes to money at least, women are truly the weaker sex.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.nextavenue.org/women-investors-get-bad-rap/

FYI: With 14 more trading days left in 2017, investors are looking to close the books on an
excellent year marked by likely double-
digit returns in stocks, high single -digit gains in
credit and even positive total returns in US Treasuries
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morganstanleyfa.com/public/projectfiles/gicweekly.pdf

The weekly barometer report.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer, by it's metrics, finished the week with a reading of 139 putting the S&P 500 Index in overbought territory. Even with resetting and advancing the earnings feed to what next month's input will be the barometer still indicated the Index is overbought. The earnings feed is reset monthly.
With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio as I am now starting to see some of my equity mutual funds make their year end capital gain distributions. I did make another step buy in my double tax free muni fund (FMTNX) as there was a big pull back in MUB Friday. If muni's keep pulling back I'll most likely make another nearterm step buy as my tax equlivant yield is a little above 4% in this fund. In comparison the 10 Year Treasury is currently yielding just short of 2.4%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.

FYI: U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with major indexes turning positive for the week after the November jobs report came in much stronger than expected, underlining the economy’s strong fundamentals.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/stocks-seen-climbing-in-asia-after-u-s-rally-markets-wrap
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-gains-on-robust-nov-hiring-data-idUSKBN1E21LK
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-flirts-with-weekly-gain-as-tech-futures-lead-us-stocks-higher-2017-12-08/print
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/indexes-rise-on-jobs-data-microsoft-builds-base-in-position-for-breakout/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/us-stocks-jobs-report-brexit-tax-reform.html
AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/your-evening-briefing
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures: Positive
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

My domestic equity sleeve, found in the growth & income area, consisting of ANCFX, FDSAX & SVAAX has had some nice upward movement this past rolling month (up +2.93%) while my large/mid cap sleeve, found in the growth area, consisting of AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX has been stumbling (down -0.68%). In addition, my small/mid cap sleeve, also found in the growth area, consisting of IIVAX, PCVAX & PMDAX is up +0.94%.
From a Global perspective my global equity sleeve (growth & income area) which consist of CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX is up +0.63% while its cousin sleeve, global growth, found in the growth area and consisting of ANWPX, SMCWX & THOAX is down -1.22%.
I find it interesting that my S&P Equal Weighted 500 Index Fund (VADAX) is up +2.34% while its cap weighted cousin (SPIAX) is up 1.66% for the same rolling month.
So, it seems form review of the above value has lead growth for the past rolling month within my portfolio while an equally weighted 500 Index fund leads (its cousin) the cap weighted one.
Watch out, its capital gains distribution time for a good number of mutual funds. Got one yesterday, at about 6.7%, form SVAAX. Since, market valuations are pretty high, by my metrics, I'm taking most all distributions in cash. Come January I'll decide what to do with my year end cash distributions..
Old_Skeet
Trailing comment: Overall I am currently about 40% value, 30% blend & 30% growth.

Short + Long term cap. gains distribution $1.067/share
https://doublelinefunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017_DLFunds_EstimatedCapitalGains.pdf

@MikeM: If I'm not mistaken, Capital Gains Distribution.
Regards,
Ted

FYI: DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Jeffrey Gundlach, who voted for President Donald Trump, warned on Tuesday that it is a “strange environment” to be cutting U.S. corporate taxes with the economy already in its eighth year of expansion.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-gundlach/gundlach-says-strange-environment-to-be-cutting-u-s-corporate-taxes-idUSKBN1DZ381
On Yellen Legacy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/gundlach-says-yellen-s-legacy-at-fed-is-looking-pretty-good

Looking at the Plumb performance chart, looks like he is always overweight metals. Nice gains into 2011. Terrible performance since 2012.
I've always thought risk parity made sense in tactical allocation between stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Plumb's portfolio risk is weighted heavily towards commodities.

Wake me up when inflation starts heating up.
Until then, the S&P at less than 20x forward earnings working on a third straight quarter of 3%+ GDP is not a recipe for a "crash."
Now, the market will NOT post another 13 straight months of gains. There will be ups and downs. The naysayers like Mauldin will pronounce every "down" as "the one."

Maybe it is a good time to sell. Any of you remember how much the market loved the turmoil Nixon brought on? I wish I had an in-house lawyer who would say he was the one speaking when I had put my foot in my mouth. More will be revealed, but it won't be good for the market.

All I remember about RMN’s impact on markets is that he is/was the only Pres. during my lifetime to impose unilaterally an immediate temporary freeze on wages and prices. (Hope I’ve described the 1971 executive order accurately.) I was 20-something at the time and enroute to my first good paying post-college job when the news broke over the radio.
Sell decisions are fraught with peril as several here and at FA have noted over the years. For longer term investors there’s the dilemma of when to get back into the market. It’s a coin-toss at best that they’ll manage to re-enter at lower prices than they sold. Even for older investors with shorter time horizons there’s the risk of forgoing substantial future gains should the markets run hot for several more years. Than there’s the sector issue. An overvalued S&P or high yield market doesn’t necessarily mean that deep value, financials or industrial metals are overvalued. Sometimes the opposite is the case as hot sectors tend to pull money away from more tepid markets. Hope I’ve made clear that despite my misgivings about the current market euphoria, I could never recommend to someone else that they sell.
What I haven’t heard mentioned lately is the Presidential election cycle. But that’s a whole different topic.

@VintageFreak
This fund has been in my portfolio since 2015. Watching to see what happens with current fund management and holdings makes sense. Polen Capital executes a specific process. The remaining managers know that process. The firm has been putting some focus into international investing in recent years. I'll hold on to see how things go in 2018. Given the low turnover rate and small number of holdings, I don't expect there will be any rapid decline in performance over the short term due to the management change. So, I don't feel a need to make a rushed decision.

@David: Sorry to hear about Amazon. Also
7:23AM Flag
For what interest it holds, here's our October 2107 Elevator Talk with manager Ryan Caldwell.
7:29AM edited 7:29AM Flag
@MFO Members: Here's David's October 2017, back to the future, Elevator Talk with Ryan Caldwell.
Regards,
Ted :)
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/10/elevator-talk-ryan-caldwell-chiron-capital-allocation-fund-ccapx/

@MFO Members: Here's David's October 2017, back to the future, Elevator Talk with Ryan Caldwell.
Regards,
Ted :)
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/10/elevator-talk-ryan-caldwell-chiron-capital-allocation-fund-ccapx/

For what interest it holds, here's our October 2107 Elevator Talk with manager Ryan Caldwell.
David

I believe the equity market can act as its own re-balancing mechanism. Market price conditions change "moment by moment". When you are in the accumulation stage of life you might dollar cost average (dca) into these price conditions and in a sense your "dca" helps you re-balance into the market's price. Dca into investments over a long time horizons (many overbought and oversold changes) usually provide a positive return on investment. This might be considered a component of a re-balancing growth strategy.
When you move from the Accumulation (growth) Stage to the Distribution Stage, re-balancing is often impacted by the spending ("distribution of cash") of your portfolio. Re-balancing as a result of spending comes in many forms - retirement income, RMDs, one time tuition payments, wedding costs, house buying, and divorce to name a few. Most of these involve raising cash from your invested investments.
Raising cash in a portfolio is somewhat a kin to running a farm. Equities are the cows, the hens, the crops. The bonds are the working capital needed to run the farm- the fertilizers, the machinery, the outbuilding, the land, the service costs, etc. Think of cash as the profits from the corn, the hay, the eggs the milk. When a cow needs to be milked...milk it. When the field needs to be hayed, "make hay when the sun shines". Harvesting is part of farm's life and I believe it should also be a dynamic part of a portfolio's inner workings with respect to the cash needs (financial goals) of the portfolio.
Another take on re-balancing:
Using @Catch22 portfolio (50% FCNTX and 50% PIMIX) this farm has hired hands (Danoff and Ivascyn) who help manage the production and the operation of the farm separately. You need to roll up your sleeves and coordinate how these two managers are "running" your farm and "re-balance" their efforts. If your are young and your goal is long term growth, buy more FCNTX, but remember that you may need more land, more equipment, more fertilizer...so also buy some PIMIX. In a growth portfolio (with no need for short term cash) I would own enough PIMIX to cover the downside risks (Maximum Draw Down or MAXDD) of FCNTX. So every dollar you spend for future growth of FCNTX, an additional amount (in MAXDD percent) should be directed at PIMIX to hedge FCNTX's MaxDD risk. This will allow you to not sell FCNTX at the wrong time (in case you did need cash), but might even provide an opportunity to buy more FCNTX during oversold times.
For me, I gauge "overbought and oversold" using my portfolios holdings. I use PIMIX as my "risk off" portfolio indicator comparing it to my "risk on" investments, in this case FCNTX. "Overbought and oversold" conditions of FCNTX are compared against the performance of PIMIX dynamically. . In other words I use PIMIX to tell me when FCNTX is over or under performing PIMIX. Also, using @Old_Skeet's upper bands as a re-balancing trigger (+20% gain on the upside for FCNTX compared to PIMIX) - sell FCNTX and move proceeds (re-balance back into) PIMIX. Conversely, a (-10 percent loss of FCNTX compared to PIMIX) - sell PIMIX and buy (re-balance) into FCNTX
We can hire a manager to do this for us with hybrid/allocation/glide path retirement funds or we can "farm" a portfolio ourselves with individual securities (stocks or bonds) or with additional hired hands (stock or bond mutual fund managers). Either way, we still need to identify a strategy to deal with the spending dynamic and determine how that spending impacts portfolio re-balancing as we move through the distribution stage of life.

The barometer report.
This week saw Old_Skeet's market barometer finish the week with a reading of 140 indicating the S&P 500 Index is overvalued. A reading one point lower and the Index would fall into the overbought area. Generally, a lower reading indicates there is less investment value over a higher reading. Based upon a seasonal investment strategy I am overweight equities at this time over what my equity weighting matrix calls for by about 5%.
Also, at this time, the barometer is not finding any of the major sectors within the Index to be undervalued or oversold from a technical score perspective. With this, I am still with my cash build mode within my portfolio where most of my mutual fund distributions are taken in cash. This in of itself will be a rebalance of sorts as a good number of mutual funds will be making their annual capital gains distributions in December. With this, I'm expecting my allocation in cash to rise and my allocation in equities to fall. Come the end of December or the first part of January I may do some buying. Currently, I'm thinking in the hybrid fund area and looking at convertibles and multialternative funds.
In addition, you might find my comments and those made by others of interest in the thread linked below which centers around methods used to rebalance a portfolio.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/36992/ping-old-skeet-5-rebalancing-bands-for-your-fund-portfolio#latest
Have a great week and thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet

FYI: Lead manager Ryan Caldwell uses quant models to allocate the go-anywhere Chiron Capital Allocation Fund.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=GXkiWsipEqHH_QaxrrXIDQ&q=Barron's+A+Fund+for+All+Seasons&oq=Barron's+A+Fund+for+All+Seasons&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3247.10560.0.11798.10.10.0.0.0.0.110.789.9j1.10.0....0...1.1j2.64.psy-ab..0.9.678...0j46j0i131k1j0i46k1.0.ZQxygfB-cpk
M* Snapshot CCAPX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/CCAPX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot CCAPX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ccapx
CCAPX Is Unranked In The (WA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-allocation/chiron-capital-allocation-fund/ccapx

Hi @Catch22,
Thanks for the question.
Q: What would I personally do?
A: Rebalance, if I wanted to follow the discipline. Beyond this, if I was in the accumulation phase of investing I'd widen the rebalance channel from 5% to 10% perhaps even 20%. If I was in the distribution phase of investing I'd rebalance and follow the strategy. Another thing one might consider is a lower limit rebalance at 5% and an upper limit rebalance at 10% (possibly 20%) on the equity side. In this way you buy the pullback and let the winners run longer than normal.
Currently, for me, within my own portfolio I an overweight equity based upon what my equity weighting matrix is calling for by about five percent. This is based mostly upon a seasonal investment strategy where I generally overweight equities during the fall and winter and begin to lighten up come spring (rebalance). During the summer I generally follow a neutral weighting position. The matrix is driven by my market barometer. In addition, my normal equity allocation ranges from 45% to 55%. Currently, I am at 51% to 52% range as determined by a recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis putting me somewhere between a 4% to 5% overweight over the matrix's reccomended allocation.
In rebalancing, you are most likely booking profit making unrealized gains realized. In this way, they are less likely to get vaporized in severe market downdrafts. This raise the question. Would you rather pay taxes on your gains (if warranted) or see these unrealized gains get vaporized in severe market declines and downdrafts. I'm of the camp pay the tax (if necessary) and rebalance ... harvest some of the gains along the way and don't let them get vaporized in stock market downdrafts.
The barometer, which follows certain metrics of the S&P 500 Index, as of Friday December 1st market close scored the Index as overvalued and not far from an overbought reading.
In addition, I think @davidrmoran made some good comments about this as well (goals, greed, needs and risk tolerance).
Skeet

Update:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000113542817001085/frost-allocation-funds-497.txt
497
1
frost-allocation-funds-497.txt
THE ADVISORS' INNER CIRCLE FUND II (THE "TRUST")
FROST CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION FUND
FROST MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND
FROST AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION FUND (THE "FUNDS")
SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 1, 2017 TO THE
INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE INVESTOR CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS,
EACH DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2017 (THE "PROSPECTUSES") AND THE STATEMENT OF
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2017 (THE "SAI")
THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN
THE PROSPECTUSES AND SAI, AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PROSPECTUSES AND SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Frost Investment
Advisors, LLC (the "Adviser"), the investment adviser of the Funds, has approved
a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of each Fund's assets and
the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund's shareholders. In
connection therewith, the Funds are closed to new investments. The Funds are
expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about December 22, 2017 (the
"Liquidation Date").
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in
the manner described in the "How to Redeem Fund Shares" section of each
Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares
prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will distribute to each such
shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash
distribution equal in value to the shareholder's interest in the net assets of
the Funds as of the Liquidation Date.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Funds, the Adviser may manage each
Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by
holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result,
during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner
consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund
from achieving its investment objective.
The liquidation distribution amounts will include any accrued income and capital
gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be
a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your
particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on the Liquidation
Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net
asset value of each Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of
liquidating the Fund.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
FIA-SK-046-0100