More Optimism or " a sense of relief that the election was finally over"

The final index of consumer sentiment for November jumped to 93.8 from a preliminary reading of 91.6, according to a report released on Wednesday.
This report took on added significance because it showed results of the first postelection survey.
"The initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist.
Curtin said the survey showed that the improved optimism was widespread — across all income and age subgroups across the country. However, it may have been exaggerated by a sense of relief that the election was finally over he said.
http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-consumer-confidence-november-23-2016-2016-11
Final Results for November 2016
2016 Y-Y vs 2015 % Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 93.8 +2.7%
Current Economic Conditions 107.3 +2.9%
Index of Consumer Expectations 85.2 +2.8%
...and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended. To be sure, no surge in economic expectations can long be sustained without actual improvements in economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons represent a period in which the promise of gains holds sway over actual economic conditions.
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Image source:
Consumer confidence rose more than previously reported to a six-month high in November, showing Americans became more optimistic about their finances and the economy after Donald Trump won the presidential election.
by Patricia Laya Bloomberg News
November 23, 2016 — 9:00 AM CST
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-jumps-after-trump-election-victory

Thanks for everyone's thoughts on ARTKX, and yes, I'll hold on, it's been one of the best foreign funds out there since its founding (and I bought it near then), and I'm sitting on a lots of capital gains in a taxable account. But I am keeping a closer eye on it. Most active funds fall prey to mean reversion sooner or later, and if the company culture is changing, it could be a warning sign.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1611894/000114036116087676/form497.htm
497 1 form497.htm CORSAIR OPPORTUNITY FUND 497 11-22-2016
Corsair Opportunity Fund
(THE “FUND”)
SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 23, 2016 TO THE FUND’S
PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED JANUARY 27, 2016
On November 22, 2016, the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of the Fund approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination (the "Plan"), whereby the assets of the Fund would be liquidated and the Fund subsequently dissolved.
In light of the Board's decision, shares of the Fund are no longer being offered.
As a result of the Fund's liquidation, each shareholder of the Fund as of the close of business on December 15, 2016 will be entitled to receive a distribution in an amount equal to the net asset value of his/her shares as of December 15, 2016, to be received prior to December 22, 2016. The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning you particular tax situation. A notice concerning the Plan and the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund will be mailed to shareholders.

FYI: Retail names among the strongest of the day
U.S. stocks were little changed on Tuesday as major indexes pulled back from their latest in a string of all-time highs, on a day when both the Dow and S&P 500 topped psychological milestones.
Gains on the day were slight but broad, with only three of the S&P 500’s primary 11 sectors trading lower early. Consumer-discretionary names were among the biggest outperformers, lifted by retailers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.45% rose 44 points, or 0.2%, to 19,002. The blue-chip index touched 19,014.73 early in the session, its first time above 19,000.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/yen-rises-nikkei-futures-erase-gain-after-quake-oil-holds-gain
Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN13H19R
MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-on-track-to-knock-out-fresh-record-highs-2016-11-22/print
USA Today:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/11/22/stocks-dow-tuesday/94268404/
IBD:
http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-turn-mixed-after-dow-crosses-19000-retailers-shine/
CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/22/if-the-dow-closes-above-19000-we-can-expect-more-gains-to-come.html
AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
WSJ Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Current Futures: Positive
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000113542816001868/frost-497.txt
497
1
frost-497.txt
THE ADVISORS' INNER CIRCLE FUND II (THE "TRUST")
FROST KEMPNER TREASURY AND INCOME FUND (THE "FUND")
SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 21, 2016
TO THE INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE INVESTOR CLASS SHARES
PROSPECTUS, EACH DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2015 (THE "PROSPECTUSES") AND THE STATEMENT
OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2015 (THE "SAI")
THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED
IN THE PROSPECTUSES AND SAI, AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PROSPECTUSES AND SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Frost Investment
Advisors, LLC (the "Adviser"), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved
a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund's assets and the
distribution of the net proceeds PRO RATA to the Fund's shareholders. In
connection therewith, the Fund will be closed to new investments effective
immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about
December 30, 2016 (the "Liquidation Date").
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in
the manner described in the "How to Redeem Fund Shares" section of the
Prospectuses. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares
prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such
shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash
distribution equal in value to the shareholder's interest in the net assets of
the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital
gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be
a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your
particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation
Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net
asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect the costs of
liquidating the Fund.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
FIA-SK-039-0100

@Crash said "And rising rates are hurting REIT funds. How long can we expect to wait before it all levels-off?"
Real Estate Review:Nov. 20, 2016 3:21 PM ET Hoya Capital Real Estate
REIT valuations in 2016 have been driven almost entirely by movements in US interest rates, but this pattern has diverged since the Trump election. REITs have held up surprisingly well in the face of sharply higher interest rates.

Residential REITs struggled this week amid stronger-than-expected construction data and comments from President Elect Trump on a possible deportation of 2-3 million people. While we don't expect mass deportations, we do expect a slowdown in net migration into the United States, which would be a drag on apartment and self storage demand. Public Storage (NYSE:PSA) and Apartment Investment Management (NYSE:AIV) fell 5% each.
The re-pricing continued this week, as investors in residential REITs had to weight the possibility of sharp declines in net migrations into the United States as a result of stricter immigration policies.
Rent inflation, though, remains strong, a signal of continued tightness in the multifamily rental market. Rent inflation rose 0.4% month over month and is up 3.5% year over year.
30-Year Mortgage rates, which tend to track movements in medium and long term Treasury bonds, surged higher this week and are at or above 4% for the first time since late 2015. All else equal, higher mortgage rates puts downward pressure on house prices and home sales, as it pushes marginal buyers out of the market. This may be a positive for apartment REITs. We won't know the effects on home prices, new home sales, or new construction for several weeks or months.
Labor markets have shown signs of continued strength. Initial jobless claims data was better than expected. Data this week showed the lowest jobless claims since 1973.
Retail sales showed continued strength in October. Retail sales excluding auto gained a strong 0.8% in October, following an upwardly revised 0.7% in September. Retail sales have risen in seven of the past nine months and are now up 4% year over year.
Digging deeper into the data, we see strength in grocery stores, clothing stores, miscellaneous retailers, and sporting goods stores. Online retail (non-store retailers) continues to show strength. Department stores continue to struggle, but their pace of decline has moderated.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4024976-real-estate-review-reits-stabilize-construction-strong-yields-mortgage-rates-surge
Also
Real Estate Implications Of Trump's Win
Nov. 17, 2016 3:55 PM ET|4 comments | About: iShares U.S. Real Estate Etf (IYR), Includes: AMZN, AVB, EQR, GGP, PAC, PLD, PSA, SPG, VNQ
Hoya Capital Real Estate Hoya Capital Real Estate
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4024392-reits-picked-winners-2016-real-estate-implications-trumps-win
Bond Rally and Rout to Nowhere
Posted on November 21, 2016 by David Ott Acropolis Investment Management,
...although 2016 feels like a year where anything can happen – bond returns are almost exactly what you would have expected back in January.
Despite all of the action, not much has really changed, which is why we try not to focus too much on the short-term movements.

http://acrinv.com/bond-rally-rout-nowhere/

@Crash said "rising rates are hurting REIT funds"
Here's some "medicine" for that ailment.
Reefer REIT: Innovative Industrial Properties' IPO
Nov. 9, 2016 9:34 AM ET
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc (Pending:IIPR) has filed for an IPO seeking to raise $175 million. Innovative Industrial seeks to become the first REIT to monetize the growing medicinal marijuana industry utilizing sale-leaseback transactions and offer investors an indirect method to capitalize on the sector. In a time where REITs find cap rates compressing in most industries, Innovative Industrial hopes to prove the medicinal marijuana industry is a cash cow for investors.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4021523-reefer-reit-innovative-industrial-properties-ipo
....who would have imagined that there would be a "weed REIT", Innovative Industrial Properties was to list on the NYSE this week. According to the company's website, it "targets medical-use cannabis facilities for acquisition, including sale-leaseback transactions, with tenants that are licensed growers under long-term triple-net leases."
Innovative believes this industry is poised for significant growth in coming years, and is focused on being a creative capital provider to this industry
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4024483-reit-world-back-business
Innovative Industrial Properties™
Removing Financial Barriers For Licensed Medical-Use Cannabis Growers™
Our Team
Industry Leaders
Our Market
The Licensed Medical-Use Cannabis Industry
Our Properties
Medical-Use Cannabis Cultivation and Processing Facilities
Our Tenants
Sophisticated, Best-in-Class Medical-Use Cannabis Growers
Our Leases
Long-Term, Triple-Net Arrangements
http://innovativeindustrialproperties.com/business

Speaking of the US $$$..
Jeffery Gundlach in Tue's Webcast did not "pound the table" predicting a higher US $$$$ but stated it would not surprise him to see 120 in the next two years...Also,"don't over analyse" and "keep your seatbelts fastened" Earlier he said he was not interested in becoming US Treasurer.in effect saying " I want to remain brutally honest and politicians are seldom if ever that. ." Closed End Fund Webcast Nov 8th https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1085775
BUSINESS NEWS | Thu Nov 17, 2016 | 10:56pm EST By Hideyuki Sano | TOKYO Reuters
Rising U.S. yields help dollar to 13-1/2 year high
..rising U.S. bond yields carried the dollar to a more than 13-1/2 year high against a
basket of major currencies, fueled by expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's policies will lead to higher interest rates.
The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies rose above its "double top" touched in March and December of 2015. The index now stands at its highest level since April 2003. "Double top" is a technical analysis term describing a currency (or other liquid asset) rising to a high, falling, and then rising again to the same level. Breaking the double top is often seen as a bullish sign by technical analysts.
A rising dollar is particularly a problem for some emerging economies that could see capital outflows if investors shift more funds to the United States.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN13D040?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)

http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-currency.png?s=dxy&v=201611180455r&d1=20110101&d2=20161231
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

I've never been able to find a listing. I do know an advisor there and asked him to pass along some feedback - that the brokerage information for DIYers is close to nonexistent.
While TIAA has traditionally been focused on assisted investing (they provide extensive help with their 403(b) plans, and have been moving into advisor-managed accounts), it has a lot of catching up to do for the DIY market.
The best I've been able to do is find a list of families offered, where families have asterisks if at least one of their funds is available NTF. Something interesting is that American Funds has an asterisk. This is interesting because supposedly only Fidelity and Schwab are carrying any AF funds NTF, and because the listing is dated August 2016. I think that predates AF announcement of its NTF offerings.
Your guess is as good as mine as to what that says about the info on this list.
Also of note is that Franklin Templeton is starred. That could be for Mutual Series funds like MDISX (which M* lists as TIAA-CREF NTF). T. Rowe Price is starred, but that could be for their Advisor class shares (that carry an extra 12b-1 fee, such as PASVX). All in all, hard to find anything unusual that pops out.
https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/MF_families.pdf

Primer on FRs, here. Pretty good roundup, seems like.
Money quote: "A diverse portfolio of floating-rate loans should perform well when the economy is recovering and credit spreads are tightening."
Typically, they're not equivalent to junk corporates, as you sometimes hear/read: generally they have lower yields than junk corps, are higher in the capital structure, are backed by collateral, have lower default rates, and have higher recovery rates when they do default. (The Inv'pedia piece doesn't mention lower default rates that I can find, but several other sources I've read cite lower default rates as an advantage over junk corps.)
They may be overbought now, though, so even a temporary reversal in rates could be a problem. I don't think I'd be buying a significant stake at this point - probably would put new credit-FI $ into a tried and true, more all-weather option like Pimco Income - which pays out a higher yield than FRs now anyway.

It is kind of twisted logic:

Here's Anthony Scaramucci, the Skybridge Capital founder and Trump fund-raiser and adviser, on the Department of Labor's fiduciary rule:
“It's about like the Dred Scott decision,” Mr. Scaramucci said.
He made the analogy because he views the DOL rule as discriminatory, Mr. Scaramucci wrote in a follow-up email.
“The left-leaning Department of Labor has made a decision to discriminate against a class of people who they deem to be adding no value,” he wrote. “They are judging what should happen in a free market and attempting to put financial advisers out of work."

http://tinyurl.com/hchqvz2

I'd keep in mind that although there's no way to know what happens next, rates have already risen a lot in a very short time. I'm trying not to do anything too drastic that I'll regret if rates settle into another, higher trading range for a while.
The post-election narrative that's been helping drive this phase of rate increases is based on assumptions that may or may not play out. But of course there might be another shakeup after a Dec Fed rate bump and a consensus projection of more.
PTIAX in particular has held up pretty well considering; if you really want to do a protective sell based on more rate increases, I'd reduce GIBLX first, as it's typically got more rate sensitivity.
On floaters, I've been pairing a higher yielding cef and a safer oef, GIFPX, but for someone who hasn't got any exposure now, I'd say look at the ytd gains and invest accordingly - they've been doing well for more of the year than just recently.

FYI: (Scroll & Click On Download)
Regards,
Ted
http://moneylifeshow.com/highlights.asp
Interpid Capital Funds Website:
http://www.intrepidcapitalfunds.com/index.html

@Ted. Thank you for the link.
My biggest take away from some of the words related to some of the pension funds is that; let us (pension fund managers) blame the sad state of affairs of gains since the market melt 9 years ago on low yields. The pension funds are going to run out of money and/or be forced to reduce future benefits or BOTH. Hell yes, they are and will. Guess that underfunding doesn't help much either, eh?
From the article:
Government-bond yields have risen since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, though few investors expect a prolonged climb. Regardless, the ultralow bond yields of recent years have already hindered the most straightforward way for retirement funds to recover—through investment gains.
>>> So, no investment gains from price appreciation that many bond types have had over the past nine years??? Ya, right! If these managers have not made money from bonds in past years, they need to find new work. Losses in other investment areas have likely offset bond price gains.
From the article:
Pension officials and government leaders are left with vexing choices. As investors, they have to stash away more than they did before or pile into riskier bets in hedge funds, private equity or commodities. Countries, states and cities must decide whether to reduce benefits for existing workers, cut back public services or raise taxes to pay for the bulging obligations.
>>>Prior discussions and links here at MFO have indicated performance problems with many large pension funds. Perhaps that should have invested in something like VWINX and/or a simple 50/50 equity/bond mix with 4 holdings.
Educated, smart folks; who are not the sharpest tools in the investment world shed! Perhaps hire a few more hedge fund managers.......oh, wait; these managers are being fired by numerous funds!
10 year annualized returns sampler on the simple side of investment life:
--- IEF = 5.5%
--- TLT = 6.7%
--- LQD = 5.5%
--- TIP = 4.1% (even the lowly regarded TIP is far above this percentage using simple moving averages for buys and sells)
--- VTI = 7.1%
--- SPY = 6.8%
--- IWM = 6.7%
--- QQQ = 11.4%
--- VWINX = 6.7%
Pick any 4 of the above and one still finds an average of about 6.2% annualized over 10 years. Yes, I know; not much diworsifiers in the above choices. Build your own pension fund and post here, eh?
Problems with the future of many pension funds and survival are real. Problems with this also result from the skill set of much of the management(s).
Other than these, all is well with the world.
...etf ticker highlight test IEF QQQ
Take care,
Catch

Hello ...
For the week ... I have the S&P 500 Index up +3.8% from its 11/4 close of 2085 to its 11/11 close of 2164 while the Lipper Ballanced Index was up +1.4%. For the same period Old_Skeet was up a meer +0.9%. Year-to-date, I lead my bogey 6.5% vs. 5.5% according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager which I use to track my portfolio's investment returns.
Folks, for me the important thing is I did not lose money for the week and given that my portfolio is a diviserified one designed to produce income as well as some capital appreciation along the way ... actually, I am quite please with how it performed this past week. I'm thinking it could have been worse from reading that many income investors got hammered.
My three best performing funds, for the week, were ABSAX +10.45% ... PCVAX +7.50% ... & FDSAX +5.47%
My three worst performing funds, for the week, were PGUAX -3.21% ... AJVAX -2.65% ... & NEWFX -1.66%.
According to my Portfolio Equity Weighting Matrix Barometer I need to be currently invested around 48% to 49% equity mark; however, with us now being in the first part of a traditional fall seasonal investment trend I am currently above that at about 51%. I am still with my plan to raise my equity allocation upward by a couple of percent to 53% as we move towards Thanksgiving and remain at this level to around Easter. Naturally, if I begin to see equities breaking down before Easter comes, I will begin a sell down strategy reducing my equity allocation and raising cash by a like amount. My allocation for equities within my portfolio ranges from 45% to 55%. I usually use my matrix as a tool to help govern this allocation plus I usually make allowances for seasonal trends. In short, load equities in the fall and reduce them during the summer months.
And, so it goes.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Skeet

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
You heard it here first: Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and one of the world’s most successful bond investors, predicted in January at the Barron’s Roundtable that Donald J. Trump would be the country’s next president, noting, “The populist momentum is unstoppable.”
Now that the New York businessman has shocked much of the world by vanquishing rival Hillary Clinton, Gundlach sees something else unstoppable: a rise in bond yields that could lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 6% in the next four or five years.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=Gundlach:+Bond+Yields+Could+Hit+6%+in+Five+Years+Barron's

Vanguard - 2016 Preliminary Capital Gains Estimates
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/preliminary-capital-gains-112016

Sorry - I don't check or track quarterly. YTD still hanging on to a double-digit year. But seems like I've too been stuck in the mud for several months now. The nice gains came early. Yesterday, despite the 200+ jump in the Dow, I lost a few dollars (literally). Off -.02%.
I don't really have my head around what happened yesterday. Yes, EMs got hammered. Bloomberg says the EMs fear U.S. protectionism will hurt them. OK- makes sense. Though I still give equal credence to Fed Reserve intonations.
What's odd is that a couple of my balanced funds like OAKBX and DODBX did very well - while similarity conservative RPGAX suffered and PRWCX stumbled. Both of the latter sell puts and employ other sophisticated hedging methods to protect against downside and add income. Those trades have worked well for a long time, but didn't work yesterday for whatever reason. In the case of RPGAX, exposure to foreign securities also hurt. And to the extent it invests in a fund of hedge funds, it suggests that the smart (not so smart?) Wall Street money also got burnt.
Another good one to watch is HSGFX which lives and dies by these hedging techniques. Off -1.82% yesterday.
FWIW

Hello,
Here is what's happening with me.
Since, Mr. Trump's victory was a surprise to many it also seems to be as well for the market. In my own portfolio, I have had some winning sectors as well as some laggards. All in all my portfolio has the same value comparing market close of November 7th to the close on the 10th. While some things have increased in value some things have also fallen in value netting me even. I guess this is one of the benefits of good diverfication. While my fund managers are perhaps making some changes ... I myself plan to just sit tight and rock along not dong much of anything until things gets sorted out by Mr. Market. Seems, by my math, the market as defined by the S&P 500 Index is up 1.6% form its 11/7 close of 2132 to its 11/10 close of 2167.
My three best performing sleeves since the election are my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth and income area along with my global hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area as well. Its also interesting that my income area has held up much better than anticipated being flat like my portfolio as a whole. Seems, my hybrid income sleeve has, thus far, covered the losses that were a product of my income sleeve netting the area out flat.
Currently, I still lead my bogey ... The Lipper Balanced Index, although it has made some gains of late where I have been flat.
It will be interesting to see how things go today.
Skeet

Hum?
Don't mean to rub it in. But us who has some PRPFX in our holdings are wondering what all the excitement is about?
Just another dull day ... up a modest 0.44%
:)

Yes, PRPFX has certainly come to life this year with impressive double digit gains. I certainly didn't mean to imply I have emerging markets bonds as they have always been too volatile for my tastes. Trying to hold tight with open end floating rate funds. Hope rates keep rising so CDs can become competitive again and that is where I will live out the rest of my life.