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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Suggested reading for a teenage investor
    If she is or soon will be a college graduate I suggest "The only investment guide you will ever need " by Andrew Tobias
    Don't know if Tobias' work is the best - but do recall it being the last investment book I ever gleaned anything worthwhile out of. Excellent choice for any age. Don't believe you'd have to be a college grad to comprehend. A reasonably capable high school junior/senior should do just fine. (Really depends on where her inclinations lie).
    ---
    Additional: Very impressed with the Bloomberg interviews I've seen with Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital. An exceptionally bright, clear, easy to understand thinker. Haven't read any of his books yet, but am tempted to do so.
    More: Haven't read anything by Peter Lynch either. But if he writes as well as he speaks, I'd expect a newbie would find his investing ideas both entertaining and instructive.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    Back to multiple paragraphs ago: I don't think DCA into market that is (probably) overvalued is a wise strategy. I read the latest Cinnamond Absolute Investing blog, and I wish I had his millions (so I could feel good about a Starbucks latte, and walking my dog, and not buying any over-valued thing. [He's also a lot younger, so he can get back in the game when values exist.]). And he actually plans to do so. This raises the question: do I save cash; plunge heavily in to any new fund he establishes? I'm pretty sure he will
    Perhaps the post suggesting that 2 initial up months guarantees a positive year is correct, but I may be up 8% now (in some accounts) and 2% at Xmas, which makes me positive, but not too happy.
    People who take 1% of my money (or more) are isolated from my needs. If their funds decline 5% in a 20% decline (an extremely rare event), I have still lost money, but they trumpet a successful year.
    Cinnamond says there's nothing he sees worth buying, and I'm still trying to find stuff to sell.
    I'm sure there are multiple individual stocks that will do well as (relatively) desperate managers and individuals buy them, but I hope they are paying dividends.
    While happy with my gains, I have to wonder if this another peak at which I should sell. I've missed or ignored all the other, so why should this be different?
  • Fannie And Freddie Took A Big Fall, Will Bruce Berkowitz’ Fairholme Come Tumbling After?
    FYI: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares took a nosedive Tuesday following a federal appeals court decision to stay a previous ruling that disallows investors from suing the U.S. government. The cases alleged that the government (taxpayers) illegally seized billions of dollars from the mortgage giants. Teresa Rivas reported on it Tuesday.
    Over-the-counter shares of Fannie (FNMA) and Freddie (FMCC) slid 34.7% and 38.1%, respectively. Preferred shares were down similarly.
    Call it a hitch – hedge funds and other distressed asset investors, who snapped up shares for pennies on the dollar expecting to get paid back won’t go quietly. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management is a major holder of common shares; Perry Capital and Bruce Berkowitz’ Fairholme Funds are major owners of the preferred shares.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/02/22/fannie-and-freddie-took-a-big-fall-will-bruce-berkowitz-fairholme-come-tumbling-after/tab/print/
  • This Bullish Signal Has Never Been Wrong — And It’s About To flash For 2017
    FYI: CFRA’s Sam Stovall says he’s looking for a long-overdue “digestion of gains,” though he adds the pause will not likely result in the end of this bull market.
    The run will continue, the chief investment strategist writes, thanks in part to improving earnings and inflation staying subdued. In support, he notes one indicator that’s close to getting triggered.
    “If you need additional encouragement that a bear market is not just around the corner, history again may offer some more virtual Valium,” says Stovall, who delivers our call of the day.
    Since 1945, there have been 27 years when the S&P has achieved gains in January and February. The stock index then finished up for the year (on a total-return basis) in every one those years, according to Stovall. That’s going 27 for 27, or batting a thousand.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-bullish-signal-has-never-been-wrong-and-its-about-to-flash-for-2017-2017-02-22/print
  • Fannie and Freddie
    Damage to FAIRX today is 12.98%.
    Basically back to square one YTD.
    Yikes! Haven't found any capital distribution news.
    Why would this trigger distribution? You think Jerky Berky will sell? No way. Everyone needs their WAMU. He will keep fighting.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    With stock prices at all-time highs and growing unease filtering out of the nation’s capital, investors will want to have cash on hand to take advantage of any opportunities that may emerge.
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/16/cash-will-be-king-in-2017.aspx
    ====
    Would you recommend raising cash now in anticipation of picking up some bargains in the future?
    I think the period around the State of the Union will be a telling time. I also think that Trump's State of the Union speech will be one of the most watched in a long time ... no one can guess what he will say.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Brian Langstraat & Scott Welch: Tax Advantage Investing
    FYI: ( I will link interview as soon as it becomes available for free early Saturday morning.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    February 16, 2017
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    Founding father Benjamin Franklin told us that, “In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.” What he didn’t add was that one of them is somewhat within our control. And I am not talking about finding the fountain of youth; I am talking about our tax bill.
    We spend most of our time on WEALTHTRACK focusing on building pre-tax wealth. We talk to top performing fund managers and highly regarded financial advisors, but we have rarely concentrated on after-tax returns. Neither does the financial services industry. This week we are going to rectify that. As one of this week’s guests told me you can’t eat pre-tax returns.
    Taxes take a huge bite out of investment returns, an estimated 1-3% annually, higher than most management fees and more than the alpha, or performance, that active managers hope to deliver above the market year after year. The main tax culprit is trading, especially that generates highly taxed short-term capital gains, which is why low turnover portfolios, particularly passive index funds have such a performance advantage.
    Taxes are a cost we have some control over, which is why we invited this week’s guests: two experts in tax-advantaged investing to join us.
    Brian Langstraat is the CEO of Parametric, a global asset management firm with about $180 billion dollars of assets under management. More than $50 billion of that is in tax-advantaged investing strategies. Founded in 1987, it describes itself as providing: “Engineered portfolio solutions” to institutional and private clients. It constructs customized strategies to meet specific risk management, tax management and return objectives. Parametric is a subsidiary of Eaton Vance and runs several mutual funds for them including its Tax-Managed International Equity Fund and Tax-Managed Emerging Markets Fund.
    Scott Welch is the Chief Investment Officer of Dynasty Financial Partners, which provides investment research, portfolio management, technology and practice management solutions to financial advisors and advisory teams. In that capacity, advice on optimizing tax consequences is near the top of his list. Welch is on the board of several industry groups including the IMCA and the Editorial Advisory Board of the Journal of Wealth Management.
    Investors need every edge they can use to maximize their returns. It turns out tax-advantaged investment strategies can consistently add some hard to come by alpha.
    If you miss the show on public television this week, you can definitely catch it on our website or on our YouTube channel. As always, we welcome your feedback on Facebook, Twitter or via the Contact Us link on our website.
    Have a great weekend, a happy President’s Day and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one!
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
    Video Clip:

  • Cash Alternatives
    @hank said
    "My own working definition of cash is pretty conservative. Not because it's the "right" definition. But simply because that's the way I structure my investments. Cash to me extends only to the reaches of a conservative ultra-short fund like TRBUX."
    " ...that's money I move in and out of other (equity) funds when opportunities arise. (And one never knows when that might occur.) "
    Right on @hank.Some of the funds mentioned have had drawdowns(not extreme,but) at the same time as those possible opportunities may present themselves.When I raise cash/take profits/seek shelter from a storm, my main goal is preservation of capital.Most of my IRA is @Schwab where funds such as TRBUX and ZEOIX carry the $76.00 transaction fee per purchase.A little research after this discussion brought me to CULAX as a good fit in the ultra short space @ Schwab, although the 90 day short term redemption fee has to enter the equation.Good discussion.
  • Time-Stamp of Speculative Euphoria
    He is expecting S&P gains being wiped out all the way down to 2000. Okay Hussman, thanks for my being my perpetual tax loss candidate year after year.
  • Cash Alternatives
    Hmmm...I never heard of PTIAX and it has a maturity out 7-8 years. Need to research. I do own both RPHYX and RSIVX in both taxable and tax deferred accounts.
    I am really trying to avoid directly holding fund with the fund company. It is just a pain at tax time. Very few funds I own direct. PTIAX is available at brokerages so its a plus. Funny thing is its municipal bond fund has capital preservation in the goal, PTIAX doesn't, and very wierd part is that for fact sheet of PTIAX it mentioned municipal bonds are undervalued while for THAT funds fact sheet it mentions no such thing.
    If anyone aware of any manager interviews or something for PTIAX, kindly link. Google didn't help me out, but then you have to know what to search for.
  • FAIRX holders, SHLD is up 28% today as of 1:50 pm EST
    Well SEARS also got creamed earlier some time. You never know what's happening with SEARS. And FAIRX. And CGMFX. And for some SEQUX.
    good for me I have taken my gains out and am playing with the houses money.
  • DSENX/ DLEUX Shiller Enhanced CAPE® and Shiller Enhanced International CAPE® Webcast Tuesday,Feb 7th
    @davidmoran,Mr Sherman encouraged investors to contact DblL for any ???s concerning the funds.The slides were informative and the presentation gave me a better understanding of the Cape Enhanced Strategy.Mr Sherman did not address the under performance of the new fund but it was shown on a couple of the slides.The slides are probably available today, but without Mr Sherman's comments. I just became an investor in the domestic strategy within the past 6 month's ,thanks to you and other posters here.
    From DL this PM
    Shiller Enhanced CAPE® and Shiller Enhanced International CAPE® Webcast replay
    The replay will be available in 5-7 business days. I have added your email to our notification list and you will receive word when it posts to the site.
    Thank you,
    Leena Park
    Investor Services
    DoubleLine Capital LP || 333 S. Grand Avenue, 18th Floor || Los Angeles, CA 90071
    direct 213.633.8498 || main 213.633.8200 || [email protected]
    This might be an automated email link *
    [email protected]
    Hello,
    *Once the presentation begins, please send me a copy of the slides.
  • American Funds - first timer
    OS: "The article does not state wheather there is a wrap fee on the account that would hold F1 shares or a transaction fee for the purchases themselves. I'm thinking, there are going to be some fees somewhere associated with F share purchases"
    Repeating myself: Schwab and Fidelity offer 57 American Funds NTF (e.g. CIBFX at Schwab and at Fidelity). This is a new arrangement that was set up a couple of months ago.
    Check out the links I provided. If Schwab were to add fees on its AF NTF funds, it would be cheapening its OneSource™ brand and SelectList® service. I realize that one should be suspicious of things that seem too good to be true, but given that lots of other load families are making their funds available load-waved, NTF, but carrying 0.25% 12b-1 fees, does this move by AF really seem too good to be true, or just good?
    BobC: "C-class shares should be outlawed. "
    While I concur with the sentiment, I fail to see the difference between class C and wrap accounts. I'll use the same fund as above: Capital Income Builder, to compare.
    Class C (CIBCX):      1.40% ER + 0% advisor costs = 1.40% total cost of ownership
    Wrap/Class F-2 (CAIFX): 0.40% ER + 1% wrap fee = 1.40% total cost of ownership
    Wrap/Class F-1 (CIBFX): 0.67% ER + 1% wrap fee = 1.67% total cost of ownership
    Reverse churning appears to be a similar risk either way.
  • 1099-DIV for VGSLX
    As pass through entities, REITs generally don't report their breakdown of ordinary divs, cap gains, and return of capital until January 31. Likewise, funds pass through income, so they can't begin computing what they're passing through until they have info from their underlying REITs. Hence the delay.
    Here's Vanguard's FAQ on real estate funds, and American Century's page about their real estate fund tax reporting:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/FAQTaxesContent.jsp#1099REIT
    https://www.americancentury.com/content/americancentury/direct/en/investment-planning/tax-center/real-estate-funds.html
    I take it as a given that real estate funds report late. What intrigues me is why T. Rowe Price singles out PRSVX in addition to its real asset funds (including real estate) for late reporting.:
    https://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Research/Tax-Planning/Prepare-Your-Taxes/Tax-Information-Mailing-Schedule
  • 1099-DIV for VGSLX
    Login into vanguard website. Look at the dividends/cap gains tab. I just had a look at my taxable/non taxable holdings for div/cap gains, for balancing purposes.
  • Bond Market Is Ridiculously Oversold – Jeff Gundlach
    @hank - ok then. Like I said, capital punishment for CNBC and Gundlach. First print authors had quotas, not Gundlach also has quota to appear on TV from his marketing team.
    Utter nonsense. I hope this is not suggestion subpar performance from Gundlach going forward. I recall a certain fund manager who did too many appearances in media for no freakin' reason and then sucked up the place mightily.
    I'm not buying any more DSENX.
  • Ping Junkster. What would be your short list of Buy & Hold High Yield Bond Funds?
    @MikeM2 This is way more than you are bargaining for but am just now working on a free update to something I wrote long ago. Below is a small part of that and a work still in progress. So I apologize for the tedious read. As you will see below, I am not a fan of diversification. I was unable to attach the equity curves mentioned below. If someone can explain how to attach a document from my computer on the board would be glad to do so. The part on bonds is at the very end.
    "So let’s get into my particular style of trading. It may well not be anyone’s cup of tea and that suits me just fine. First off you have to know I have an extreme aversion to risk. Such an aversion that some could argue I had no business whatsoever trying to make it as a trader. So to compensate for my risk aversion I developed a methodology that eliminates risk and volatility as much as possible. I realize the academics might say otherwise, but to me volatility *is* risk. Unlike most traders who thrive on volatility, it is my enemy. My primary goal as a trader is to NOT lose or as little as possible. To cut my losses in the blink of an aye. To not think/analyse - just react when price moves against me.
    Once I changed my mindset back in the spring of 1985, my goal was to make money every month. A goal that has remained my primary constant to this very day. I could best achieve that goal by low risk, yet consistently profitable strategies. Hitting singles and doubles and then using the compound effect to accumulate wealth over the years.
    For me, profitable low risk trading and consistently compounding my capital over time can be summarized in three words - TIGHT RISING CHANNELS. Tight rising channels have little to no volatility. With the tight rising channel pattern and its inherent low volatility that enables me to deploy (in increments) 100% of my nest egg. So what does a tight rising channel look like. It looks much like my equity curves as previously shown in this update of my futures trading and my mutual fund trading.
    You may wonder how I handled tight rising channels while day trading stock index futures - an asset class notorious for its wild intraday swings. What I did was uncover three particular early morning patterns which more often than not led to later day tight rising channels in the futures. I uncovered these patterns from my constant monitoring of the market and the stock index futures via the CNBC tape. Unfortunately the CNBC tape nowadays is a different animal of that back in the 80s and 90s.
    I have discussed these day trading patterns ad nauseam in books, magazine articles, and seminars so no need to go into detail on them here. Plus, I overlayed these patterns with a host of indicators, primarily sentiment, on whether or not to take the trade. That is where the art of trading came into play. These patterns were such that I traded maybe 3 or 4 times a week at best.
    While consistently profitable as a part time day trader, because of my aversion to risk I was unable to ever trade more than one contract. The stock index futures are leveraged vehicles and leverage can be a killer. My monthly profits were a very modest and mundane $716 a month over a 122 month period. I had other part time employment which paid the bills. This enabled me to roll my day trading profits into the trading of mutual funds. That is where I made my real money as a trader. In fact, there were two monthly periods where I made more money in the funds than the entire 122 months I day traded the stock index futures.
    So why mutual funds? Primarily because since they are diversified with a large number of holdings, they are more prone to tight rising channels when they are in uptrends. Secondarily, everyone trades the futures, options, and individual equities, while very few trade mutual funds. That alone, not following the trading herd, is reason enough for me. My entire life I have never been a follower or into grouthink. So I would like to believe that streak of independence is also what led me into the trading of mutual funds.
    In the 90s, I was focused most on trading sector funds - technology, healthcare, leisure, etc. as well as small cap growth funds. While Fidelity had a host of sector funds, they also imposed short term trading fees. That led me to INVESCO which also had several sector funds and where there were no fees for in and out trading. I also had a trading account at the now defunct Strong Investments.
    I believe a large part of anyone’s success has an element of luck - being in the right place a the right time. I could not have been any luckier than having my accounts at INVESCO and Strong. I could trade free of any commissions and fees and as often as I wanted. I fully participated in the new fund effect back in those days being that both firms brought new funds to the market frequently. I could also dateline international funds whenever the datelining pattern occurred.
    Datelining and the constant in and out trading without fees are now a thing of the past. But I adjusted. As my account grew over time, my aversion to risk became even more extreme. That led me to the trading of bond mutual funds, more specifically high yield corporates, high yield munis, and floating rate. This was an easy transition as junk bonds had always been my one true love in the financial arena dating back to the early 90s when I began trading them along with the sector funds. The bond funds were custom made for me because they had even tighter rising channels due to even less volatility. So it was much easier to deploy 100% of my trading capital there."












    










  • Spencer Stewart leaves Grandeur Peak
    (From an email)
    Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
    Dear Fellow Shareholders,
    Spencer Stewart has decided to follow his heart and pursue a new path. As a result, he will be leaving Grandeur Peak shortly. Spence joined us in August of 2011, just after we had set up the firm. His first day with Grandeur Peak was on a plane to South Korea, and he has probably logged more miles than anyone else at the firm since then. Spence has been a great colleague, and has proven that he is a skilled investor. We are very grateful for his dedication and hard work to help us bring the vision of Grandeur Peak to life.
    As of January 30th, Spence is no longer a lead portfolio manager of the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund. Spence and I have been the managers of the Fund since its inception in 2013. For now, I will be the lead portfolio manager and Zach Larkin will continue as the guardian portfolio manager. Instead of immediately replacing Spence with another co-manager, Stuart Rigby will step in as a senior analyst to help in our oversight of the portfolio. Since the Fund is essentially a carve-out of our global portfolio, the management of the Fund is already part of our team’s daily portfolio considerations.
    Beyond Spence’s investment insights and role managing the Emerging Markets Fund, he is also the primary analyst on roughly three dozen companies, so he leaves sizeable shoes to fill. Fortunately, because of our structure, the entire team is engaged in vetting and selecting our portfolio holdings, we have multiple people involved in the day-to-day management of each fund, and we have a secondary analyst on every owned company. In this respect, we already have people in place to fill the hole.
    We wish Spence the very best in selecting his next pathway. We will certainly miss him around the office (and on the road).
    If you have any further questions, feel free to reach out to our client team (Mark Siddoway, Amy Johnson, or Eric Huefner). You are welcome to reach out to me as well.
    Best Regards,
    Blake
    Blake Walker
    CEO
    [email protected]
    801-384-0002
    The objective of all Grandeur Peak Funds is long-term growth of capital.
    RISKS:
    Mutual fund investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Investing in small and micro cap funds will be more volatile and loss of principal could be greater than investing in large cap or more diversified funds.
    Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the prospectus. Investments in emerging markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets.
    An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325). Please read it carefully before investing.
    Grandeur Peak Funds will deduct a 2.00% redemption proceeds fee on Fund shares held 60 days or less. For more complete information including charges, risks and expenses, read the prospectus carefully.
    Grandeur Peak Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. (“ADI”). Mark Siddoway, Amy Johnson, and Eric Huefner are registered representatives of ADI.
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  • Ping Junkster. What would be your short list of Buy & Hold High Yield Bond Funds?
    Hi @BobC
    You noted: "OSTIX comes as close to buy-and-hold as any. Although it is not a high-yield fund, that is where M* puts it. It's downside protection is evident from its 2008 return vs the pure HY funds. I would not even want to own a pure HY fund because of this."
    >>>My personal view of this fund from its current composition is a short-term high yield bond fund with a touch of AAA bond holdings and some form of "cash". My recall is during 2012 the composition of this fund moved away from a more diverse multi-sector bond fund. I do not have access to its composition from prior years. As to it being moved to HY within M*, they didn't have a "slot" to match, eh? OR that if most of the fund was moving to HY beginning in 2012, the proper slot may be appropriate.
    For those wandering into this discussion and not familiar with prior years, I must presume that the downside protection you indicate in 2008 was from the fund having little exposure to HY bonds during most of or at the least during the last half of 2008.
    From the current prospectus:
    The Osterweis Strategic Income Fund invests primarily in income bearing securities. Osterweis Capital Management, LLC (the “Adviser”) takes a strategic approach and may invest in a wide array of fixed income securities of various credit qualities (e.g., investment grade or non-investment grade) and maturities (e.g., long term, immediate or short term). The Adviser seeks to control risk through rigorous credit analysis, economic analysis, interest rate forecasts and sector trend review, and is not constrained by any particular duration or credit quality targets. The Fund’s fixed income investments may include, but are not limited to, U.S. Federal and Agency obligations, investment grade corporate debt, domestic high yield debt or “junk bonds” (higher-risk, lower-rated fixed income securities such as those rated lower than BBB- by S&P or lower than Baa3 by Moody’s), floating-rate debt, convertible debt, collateralized debt, municipal debt, foreign debt (including emerging markets) and/or depositary receipts and preferred stock. The Fund may invest up to 100% of its net assets in dividend-paying equities of companies of any size – large, medium and small. Additionally, the Fund may also invest up to 100% of its assets in foreign debt (including emerging markets) and/or depositary receipts. The Fund’s investments in any one sector may exceed 25% of its net assets. The Fund’s allocation among various fixed income securities is based on the portfolio managers’ assessment of opportunities for total return relative to the risk of each type of investment.
    As to M* categories in general. We all know not every fund will have a proper fit. Not unlike, FAGIX ; which is listed as a high yield bond fund. To the point of holding about 80% of the portfolio with HY bonds, this fund also usually has about 20% in equity and to further blend the mix; 15-20% of the total mix is also non-U.S.
    FRIFX is another "stray" fund. Its performance will never show properly against the real estate category, as this fund maintains about a 50% mix of real estate related equity and bonds.
    End of 2016 composition, OSTIX
    The below is relative to the really nasty market melt period. Click onto OSTIX for the chart.
    OSTIX SPHIX IEF Sept 11, 2008 thru Dec 18, 2008
    Disclosure: our house is not invested in this fund
    Anyone know how to find this funds holdings during 2008?
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Ping Junkster. What would be your short list of Buy & Hold High Yield Bond Funds?
    Yes, a good thread. bee, AGDYX is closed to new investors at Scottrade. I have traded it in past bull markets and you can't go wrong there. As for VWEHX vs PRHYX the reason I like Price better than Vanguard is Vanguard is run a bit too conservatively for my tastes. Also a very long term and underappreciated manager at Price. But even Price is a tad conservative but that is what I would want were I a long term investor. As for 2008 and junk bonds, few realize that worst bear of all time was completely recouped in early August of 2009 (the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II index) Something that can't be said for equities.
    I am not a fan of Larry Swedroe he of the managed futures funds and the interval funds where you don't have ready access to your funds. But I can see his point where junk bonds are a *flawed* investment. And that is because they are too correlated to equities and hence why not just hold the later.
    The reason I *trade* junk corporate, junk muni, and bank loan mutual funds is because when they are in bull phases they are the most trend persistent low volatility things out there. That way I can trade them with 100% of my capital something I can't do with more volatile instruments. I am obsessive compulsive about losing and drawdowns. In the 90s where it was a straight up market I was just as obsessive but traded sector equity funds in the same way I now trade the bonds.