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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Kimberlite Floating Rate Financial Services Capital Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423047/000116204416002687/kimberlite497201612.htm
    497 1 kimberlite497201612.htm
    KIMBERLITE INVESTMENT TRUST
    Supplement to the Prospectus dated December 12, 2016
    Effective as of December 12, 2016, Kimberlite Floating Rate Financial Services Capital Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Kimberlite Investment Trust (the “Trust”), will end the public offering of its shares. Accordingly, shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase. The Fund will continue to operate until the soonest practicable date on or after December 16, 2016 (the “Closing Date”), when it will be liquidated.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”), in consultation with the Fund’s investment adviser, Kimberlite Asset Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), made the determination to end the Fund’s public offering and to discontinue the Fund by unanimous vote of the Board during the Board Meeting held on December 12, 2016, based on, among other factors, the Board’s determination that the Fund’s current asset size, recent purchase and redemption history and projected expenses and expense structure indicate that it is unlikely that the Fund will grow for the foreseeable future. Through the date of the Fund’s liquidation, currently scheduled to take place on the Closing Date, the Adviser will continue to waive fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, as necessary, in order to maintain the Fund’s fees and expenses at their current level, as specified in the Prospectus.
    As of December 1, 2016, in response to market conditions, the Fund assumed a temporary defensive position and converted all of the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash. In connection with the liquidation: (i) the Fund will remain in cash until Closing Date; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on the Closing Date will be closed and the proceeds of each account will be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing fund accounts. In addition, the Fund’s redemption fee for all shareholder redemptions on or after December 12, 2016 is eliminated. As a result of the Fund’s cash position described above, the Fund’s normal exposure to investments has been eliminated. Accordingly, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objective.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day during the Fund’s liquidation process. The distribution of proceeds from the closing of shareholder accounts remaining on the Closing Date will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns. In addition, shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult with their own tax advisors to understand the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders may choose to authorize, prior to the Closing Date, a direct transfer of their retirement account assets to another tax-deferred retirement account. In addition, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date of the liquidation to invest the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the liquidation proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding this Supplement, please call (855)- 318-2804.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • Investing is a Mix of Art and Science
    Holy INSIGHT, Batman! ...Cripes, I've maintained this very approach ever since I began to learn my very first lesson in investing, going back to the 1990s. I listened and read a lot, and made a habit to watch PBS each week when Lew Ruckeyser offered his corny-jokes and puns in his opening monologue for "Wall Street Week." I paid attention AND "read between the lines" as I heard each panelist's weekly contributions. I realized that the first step was to learn how to translate all of the "money-speak" lingo. It helped me to find and identify their professional thought-matrix, even if I did not give it a name, for my own purposes. (The talking heads and guests on CNBC need to be constantly translated in one's head, as they go along, too.) Being able to just know it when I heard and saw it was (and is) good enough--- at least for starters. THEN, I could learn to MAKE something of it all. Along the way, I learned to hear the double-speak underneath the actual words being expressed. "Tax Reform" = making things better for Capital and screwing Labor, for example. Avoiding any talk about the underlying POLICIES being advocated and instead deciding to speak in terms of mechanics of the Market, is the "common currency." It's more politically correct to go about it THAT way, between Talking Head-host and Prestigious Guest.
    Examining financial statements and doing analyses are Science. How one uses the information is Art. (All things being equal---and they never are--- why invest in A instead of B, when they look the same in terms of fundamentals? Ding!) One's investing elan needs to be tempered with skill, a certain legerdemain. Thus, I assert, the validity and usefulness of the paradoxes to be found in the likes of The Zurich Axioms. Eh???
    Here, you can click on the link that will let you open or download the Axioms via .pdf:
    http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVr1ArE1YBa0ASO0nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTEyNnJkMjI2BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjI1ODBfMQRzZWMDc3I-/RV=2/RE=1481514176/RO=10/RU=http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php/706430/Zurich_axioms/RK=0/RS=vlCWaQCq0eLSeDxZtls.pv6Awv8-
    ...I hope it works for you all. ...At the same time, I hasten to add that I've never been able to perfectly follow Max Gunther's advice, here. I doubt it can be done, and I doubt it was ever written with that intention. The attempt would be to confuse the Art with the Science of the whole thing. ;)
    Follow-up edit: Crap, that link is dead now. But Yahoo, as a kind afterthought, will allow you to click on THEIR OWN link to the same thing, once you click on my original link. Stupid stuff.
  • Fund Manager Focus: Timothy Pettee, Co-Manager, SunAmerican Focused Dividenf Strategy Portfolio
    I have owned FDSAX for a good number of years and it is my second largest holding, behind SVAAX, in my domestic equity sleeve, consisting of six funds, found in the growth & income area of my portfolio.
    This is a fund that I have been increasing my position in through the years during market pull backs along with most Decembers after it makes it's year ending distributions as it re-positions about a third of it's holdings annually. With this, it usually produces a good capital gain payout each year along with good dividends paid quarterly. You can reference it's capital gain and dividend payout detail through the Morningstar fund report link provided by Ted.
    For me, this fund has been a good steady, value seeking, growth and income producer.
    Old_Skeet
  • 2016 Capital Gains Estimates
    Not that estimates are ever accurate, but inconsistent dates raise additional questions about the JPMorgan Funds.
    The cap gains estimates (posted above by shadow):
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383381886694/83456/2016 JPM Funds Capital Gains Estimates - Final Posting.pdf?segment=AMERICAS_US_ADV&locale=en_US
    This page,created Oct 12, shows record dates of Dec 13-15, depending on fund.
    Another page, created November 11, shows record dates (but not estimates) for income and cap gains distributions shows record dates of Dec 19, 27, and 29, depending on the fund.
    https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383373248579/83456/4Q-Dividend-Calendar.pdf?segment=AMERICAS_US_ADV&locale=en_US
    It's possible that for funds distributing both income and cap gains divs, this page is reporting the record date for the income divs (which are typically on the same date as cap gains or later). So that could explain the mismatch.
    Regardless, this mismatch makes me somewhat more suspicious than normal about the estimates.
  • Janus Rolls Out A Global Quality Dividend ETF
    FYI: Helping investors find quality stock opportunities in foreign markets, Janus Capital Group launched a smart-beta dividend exchange traded fund that targets global companies with a solid track record.
    The Janus SG Global Quality Income ETF (NasdaqGM: SGQI) began trading Thursday. SGQI has a 0.45% net expense ratio.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.etftrends.com/2016/12/janus-rolls-out-a-global-quality-dividend-etf/
  • Neil Hennessy: Equities Head Back To The Early 1980s!
    The markets endured a year and a half of sideways movement. I could see them perking up here if the quality of the labor market improves. In addition the promise of lower cap gains tax and more money in consumer's hands to spend with is enticing to say the least.
  • Piling Up Returns Like Warren Buffett And George Soros Might Be Easier Than You Think
    FYI: A new paper claims that a lot of the gains reaped by the legendary managers over time were, in theory, available to anyone using a handful of buy-and-sell signals.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161207/FREE/161209941?template=printart
  • Take A Ride On The Bearish Bond Train?
    2 questions for Junkster if you don't mind.
    BXFYX looks to be a pretty small fund (100mil). Do you worry about when you exit, you will get hammered with your exit price since it sounds like you have a fair amount invested?
    Seems like you are in capital preservation mode but if you were trading today for max capital appreciation, what area of the market would you look for a trade?
    Thanks!
    Re BXFYX, the bank loan category has been the epitome of a tight rising channel since the February bottom. The size/assets of an open end fund isn't prone to the volatility of say an ETF where you can get hammered. To me getting hammered would be a 1% daily decline so not worried about that while this category is in a bull phase.
    While I am in a capital preservation mode, my main focus this year has been to still try to beat the S&P (while trading bonds) and so far this year have accomplished that. However as the S&P is closing in on me have gone from 100% bank loan to 80% with the other 20% in junk corporates (IVHIX) I may increase that 20% if warranted. As to what I would be trading were I younger and more hungry I really can't answer that. Obviously small cap value has been the place to be but really haven't looked at any funds there. While I would never ever buy a groupthink fund recommended on this board or any other, I must say DSENX sure has performed well.
    The equity optimism on 2017 has been a bit worried. Kind of reminiscent of all the optimism on this board regarding healthcare/biotech in 2015. But then I always worry.
  • Vanguard Fires Chartwell, owner of Berwyn Funds
    The owner of Berwyn Funds (TriState Capital Holdings) loses a big client and bails on an acquisition.
    Vanguard is replacing Chartwell Investment Partners as one of the subadvisors of Explorer and MidCap Growth.
    Tristate Capital is also abandoning its plan to buy a fixed income team and about $4-billion in assets from Aberdeen Asset Management in Philadelphia.
    Chartwell owner Tri-State Bank, based in Pittsburgh, recently bought the Berwyn Funds investment group, including BERIX and BERWX.
    Reading the release, it seems that Tri-State is fixated on "growing revenue...and attracting meanful inflows," rather than its results.
    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161205005194/en/TriState-Capital-Updates-Chartwell-Investment-Partners-Business
  • December Issue launched
    Hi @catch22,
    Yes, a good problem ... but, one I stay on top of and that I manage.
    Taxation and medicare premiums are something that I can somewhat manage due to holding a sizeable cash position. With this, should unexpected expenses arise (and they do) from time-to-time then I draw on cash reserves rather than selling invested securities which often times trigger associated capital gains along with taking outsized withdrawals from my IRA which are also taxable. These things can sneak up on one quickly and pretty soon you wind up with a sizeable tax bill.
    So, there is something good to be said about holding a reasonable amount of cash in retirement and also doing some strategy based selling along with taking planned IRA withdrawals.
    Skeet
  • Take A Ride On The Bearish Bond Train?
    2 questions for Junkster if you don't mind.
    BXFYX looks to be a pretty small fund (100mil). Do you worry about when you exit, you will get hammered with your exit price since it sounds like you have a fair amount invested?
    Seems like you are in capital preservation mode but if you were trading today for max capital appreciation, what area of the market would you look for a trade?
    Thanks!
  • December Issue launched
    Hello,
    I enjoyed reading Charles Boccadoro's blurb he wrote about "A Low Cost Alternative to One USAA Managed Portfolio."
    I decided I'd carry the analysis work a little fauther on the 50/25/25 portfolio consisting of FFNOX, FTBFX & BBALX and inputed the funds along with the necessary data into Morningstar's Portfolio Manager. The things that stood out in this analysis was that the portfolio as a whole had a yield of 2.54%, with an average bond duration of 5.26 years along with an average maturity of 7.4 years. The funds within the portfolio combined were trading back of their 52 week high by 2.1%. The portfolo's year-to-date return was reflected at 6.2%, 1 year return at 4.4%, 3 year return at 4.1%, 5 year return at 7.5% and the 10 year return was shown at 4.8%. Year-to-date the porfolio's performance was pretty much in line with my bogey, the Lipper Balanced Index.
    All in all, this is not a bad three fund portfolio ... and, if I were a new investor starting out today it is one that I'd most likely find favor in. But, to reconfigure my own portfolio would necesitiate tax payments for the large amounts of capital gains I'd face if I began to liquidate funds within my own portfolio and move towards something similar. Plus, I'd be taking a pay cut. My trading activity alone within the growth area of my portfolio has generated capital gains amounting to about 10% of my gross income this year. And, if I am not careful I'll be getting dinged for higher medicare premiums. So for me, I plan to continue my sleeve investment system which has also offered good returns. From review of your suggested portfolio's performance compared to my more complex one justifies running my more complex portfolio.
    Thanks Charles for writting about your low cost three fund portfolio. I enjoyed reading about it very much as it provided something, crafted by an expert, for me to compare my own against.
    Old_Skeet
  • Take A Ride On The Bearish Bond Train?
    Seems that some MFO members are trying to find bond funds that fit where the economy "appears for the moment" to be headed judging by recent posts. I have about 50% of my bond portfolio (38% of total assets)geared more toward decent but not best yielding and capital preservation first, return second. Yes I have done some changes, like dumping DBLTX for GIBIX, rebuying some OSTIX recently and adding some interim corporate bond funds in 2016, but don't feel the need to try and find "whats working now" for everything, Im not that smart to know when to get in and out :) Fortunately 50% of my bond portfolio is still in 2 individual munis that Im holding til maturity, so just glad to get their 4.25% yield.
    I can live vicariously through some of your choices and be glad for you when it works, and not say anything if it doesn't.
    Curious as to whether your bond allocations are more for income and balancing total portfolios or for return. Would love to hear some feedback on this.
    Thanks!
  • Take A Ride On The Bearish Bond Train?
    Munis suffer worst month since 2008
    S&P's index of municipal bonds fell 3.46% in November, writes Amey Stone in Barron's. That's the worst month since September 2008, when it fell 4.83%.
    That interest rates rose sharply in November isn''t news, but S&P Dow Jones' J.R. Rieger says potential tax reform in which the highest marginal tax rate could be cut lowers the attractiveness of municipals.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3228362-munis-suffer-worst-month-since-2008
    PTIAX
    Performance Trust Strategic Bond Fund
    POST ELECTION 2016 COMMENTARY
    Key Themes
    Continued Strong Exposure to Seasoned Non-Agency Residential Mortgage Backed Securities and Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities
    We believe both sectors still provide the best relative defense in a rising rate environment as well as strong cash flows from coupons..
    Further Decreases to Taxable Municipals
    From first quarter to second quarter, the team decreased the Fund’s allocation to taxable municipals by nearly 7%...
    Increased Exposure to Tax-Exempt Municipals, With an Emphasis On 5% Coupon Bonds For Potential Rates Down Offense
    We continue to believe that the overall municipal sector offers strong potential cash flows
    and total returns, as well as being a more credit worthy substitute to investment grade
    corporates.
    http://ptiafunds.com/documents/ptiax_commentary.pdf
    PTIMX
    Performance Trust Municipal Bond Fund

    POST ELECTION 2016 COMMENTARY
    Why has the bond market reacted negatively to the election of Donald Trump?
    Many investors have been confused by the municipal bond markets’ negative reaction to the election results. After markets took time to digest the potential effects of a Trump Administration, they made the speculative determination that many of President-elect Trump’s policies are pro-growth, and thus inflationary, which could lead to higher rates. ...our investment approach,..is that market “experts” cannot
    consistently predict the direction of markets or interest rates. At this point, bond markets are merely speculating on potential government policy and its possible impact on rates. Policy actions should speak louder than words, and substantive direction may take weeks or months to materialize. The recent spike up in rates may or may not be short-lived, and we believe --based on experience-- that
    chasing predictions does not lead to outperformance over time..
    http://ptiafunds.com/documents/ptimx_commentary.pdf
    And High Yield Investors
    Oil Gains 14% On OPEC Deal – Analysts See Further Gains
    Banks are also happy with OPEC. Another constituency pleased with higher oil prices is the banking sector, which will benefit from improved prospects of loan repayment to energy companies. Banks have had to set aside cash reserves to cover from expected defaults on their loans. Earlier this year, 15 of the largest U.S. banks stockpiled $6 billion in cash to cover energy losses, however, as the WSJ reports, defaults have not been as bad as expected. Higher oil prices will likely mean that most banks will emerge in decent shape from the two year oil bust.
    http://us2.campaign-archive1.com/?u=ed58b19f2b88e4a743b950765&id=90f27389ac&e=41e04eb3d1
    The top performer for the year so far among the major asset classes: US high-yield bonds (iBoxx High Yield Index), which is ahead by a strong 14.2% in total-return terms.
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-november-2016-performance-review/
  • Name the fund .....
    Goal: "... long-term capital appreciation, with added emphasis on the protection of capital during unfavorable market conditions."
    Inception: July, 2000
    No-load
    Manager Tenure: 16 years
    (From Lipper):
    ER: 1.13%
    AUM: $528.5M
    Current Holdings: 52% Stock, 49% Cash
    Annualized Performance (mostly negative)
    YTD: -9.54%
    4-Weeks: -5.24%
    1-Year: -7.90%
    3-Years: -9.13%
    5-Years: -9.60%
    10-Years: -4.94%
    From Inception (16 years): +1.49%
  • Are U.S. Stocks Cheap, Expensive, Or Fairly Valued?
    Hi guys,
    I like what both Edmond and kevindow have written above and, for me, it makes sense. My portfolio has been valuation flat since election time mostly due to my sector orientation. And, I agree that by historical standards the S&P 500 Index is more expensive today over it's historical standard.
    Below is my SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) Forecast ... and, what I am doing.
    One of the things I have done to help me find value is to use a blended approach to valuation. I combine the TTM P/E Ratio and the Forward Estimate P/E Ratio and divide by two and then apply the Rule of Twenty as being plenty. This takes into account what stocks have done over the past twelve months plus allows for their outlook.
    With this, I have determined, by my measuring stick, that the Index is presently, as of Friday's market close, overvalued by about six percent. In review of some S&P earnings data, earnings are project to grow by about 13% for the Index over the next six months. Fundamentally this is indeed bullish.
    By applying my forecast in earnings against todays valuation, the Index is currently selling at somewhat its fair value looking out six months ... I plan no major allocation adjustments based upon this outlook.
    Still, with the favorable comments from Edmond & kevindow, I am not backing the truck up either and loading equities as my Portfolio Equity Weighting Matrix Barometer calls for a weighting of 50% in stocks in today's market spectrum. My November Instant Xray analysis reflects a 50% position in stocks and this is about where I should be positioned based upon my risk tolerance and need analysis.
    With anticipated yearend capital gains distributions usualy paid in December, I estimate I'll need to do a little equity buying come January to restore the current 50% bubble. Since, I am positioned about where I need to be I plan no changes within my portfolio until January arrives.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Skeet
  • Amercian Funds
    I read somewhere that AF are planning to come out with F shares without the 12B fee in January. We'll see. I would be interested in investing in these shares of Income Fund of America and/or Capital Income Builder since I am near retirement, and would like to develop an income stream. The ERs are pretty low for being actively managed. I already own a good chunk of Wellesley, and am looking at other funds for income.
  • FAAFX -- has the Great Pumpkin arrived?
    Over the past 4 weeks FAIRX is up nearly 29%! Morningstar rates FAIRX a one star for every time period (could be some kind of record for a fund that's been around more than 10 years).
    Looks like FAAFX has made it YTD gains in the past 4 weeks also.
  • December Issue launched

    Dear friends,
    The season of darkness and light is upon us, which is a pretty good signal that the December issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has launched. You can find it at http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/december-2016/
    If you prefer the long scrolling read, that's available at http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2016/12/
    Highlights of our December issue include:
    Snowball’s reflections on how to react to the fact that five major U.S. equity indices reached all-time highs at the end of November (short version: the last such occurrence was 12/31/1999, which implies a degree of circumspection is in order) and to the fact that Donald Trump is president-elect (short version: don’t).
    Leigh Walzer, president of Trapezoid LLC, starts with the premise that investment risks are now tilted strongly toward inflation but that traditional inflation hedges (e.g. TIPs) are unattractively value. As he models superior alternatives, he offers up the surprising possibility that modest doses of small cap funds might well make a major difference.
    Ed Studzinski has far more extensive investment experience than the rest of us and often pursues matters into the thickets. This month he looks at not-quite criminal misstatements of qualifications in a case surrounding a royalty trust to raise the prospect that we need to be a bit less credulous when our managers are introduced to us, then recommends James Cloonan’s new Investing at Level 3 for its cautions on conflicts faced by mutual fund directors. He ends by encouraging folks to learn from Yale’s David Swensen’s advice, don’t hire managers who seem bewildered by their own portfolios.
    Many of us have portfolios that have sprouted funds like a garden sprouts weeds; Charles Boccadoro offers another tutorial on how to systematically assess and simplify a portfolio, using a friend’s USAA collection as a guide.
    One of the great virtues of scholarly writing is that it’s valued for its care and precision, not for its ability to generate clicks or get the author invited onto some Fox Business show. That sometimes masks the fact that really important insights are available, if only you’ll look for them. This month Snowball highlight’s three of the most interesting bits of research from 2016: (1) the largest sample of funds ever assembled offers evidence that small funds consistently outperform large ones, (2) a study of over 3000 fund management teams finds that intellectual diversity on the team is a major predictor of performance and (3) an examination of the behavior of 7000 German individual investors shows that introducing ETFs into a portfolio drives performance down. We offer summaries of what each scholar did and found, and how it might affect you plus there’s a link directly back to the original.
    Mark Wilson, the Cap Gains Valet, offers a short Thanksgiving reflection on the cap gains season: less pain, more time with family.
    Snowball profiles the best small cap fund you’ve never heard of. Really. 20 year record. Same manager. Asymmetrical risk-return profile over the last 3 years. And the last 5. And 10. And 20. It’s never made it to the top of the hot, hot, hot list but continues offering what you need: reasonable gain, minimal pain. (And it’s from Nebraska.)
    Like Leigh Walzer, T. Rowe Price is worried about instability in the world economy and in the fixed-income market, which led them to launch a new fund at the beginning of November. We offer a first look in our Launch Alert for T. Rowe Price Total Return.
    One development that’s not important to you yet, but might soon be, is the decision of former Wasatch manager Laura Geritz to launch her own advisory firm in partnership with her former Wasatch colleagues who launched Grandeur Peak. We spoke with Eric Huefner of Grandeur Peak to give you a clue of where that partnership is going.
    But wait, there’s more! We detail 36 fund liquidations that make sense, and three or four that don’t. Chip tracked down 50 manager changes, one of which might be portentous. We found only a few funds (and one really irksome ETF) in registration. And, well, stuff. There’s other stuff, too.
    We hope you enjoy it all in the December Mutual Fund Observer at www.mutualfundobserver.com!