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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER January 2020
    Hi, guys. We needed a small chunk just for the down-payment on a car, after just getting here. The best available option was to take the $$$ from my best performer: PRWCX, which I've owned since 2013. Along with just a few other TRP funds, it's in my T-IRA. My wife has money in a 403b, but taking the needed cash from her 403b account would mean paying an early-withdrawal-penalty, too. Our income will surely not create much, if any, tax due. I'm not worried about that. I won't be working. (And it makes me SO happy to say that!) And she'll work just part-time.
    Your logic in recommending the Roth to us is flawless. But we simply don't have much money invested anywhere that's NOT in a tax-sheltered account. We plan to do a direct rollover into an IRA for HER, with that 403b from her former job. After taking the $4,000 from my T-IRA for the car already in 2020, I don't want to add almost $10,000 more in income (her 403b) from there, too. Add to all of this, the fact that my reaction to all of the tricky, obtuse, crazy, arcane, absurd IRS tax rules leaves me just not wanting to jump through all those bullshit hoops. We already have enough current income to get by just fine...... THANK you all for the guidance and concern. :)
    *This is unrelated, I suppose: My bond funds are now generating about $300 per month, and that may turn out to be very useful. Those funds are PRSNX, RPSIX (in T-IRA) and PTIAX in a regular, taxable, joint investment account. It's always been my Ace-in-the-hole to use those monthly dividends IF the money turns out to be needed, after all. That way, I can take advantage of the pay-outs without shrinking the size of my pie.
  • Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle
    Capture ratio is a sort of "bang for your buck" summary. It's calculated by dividing a fund's downside capture (a fund that typically falls 1.1% when the market falls 1% has a downside capture of 1.10) by its upside capture (a fund that typically rises 1.1% when the market rises 1% has an upside capture of 1.10). Capture ratios greater than 1.0 reflect funds that produce more gains than losses; all other things being equal, high capture ratio funds are offering you the greatest reward for every unit of risk you've been subjected to.
    Capture ratios even the playing field for cautious and aggressive investors. A cautious investor might look for fund with a downside capture of no more than .8. Given that constraint, anything above 1.0 is a winner! Aggressive investors might be willing to accept downside captures of 1.10 as long as they've been duly compensated. So, for them too, anything above 1.0 is a winner.
    I screened to equity-oriented domestic funds, which included "flexible portfolios" and "aggressive allocation" funds but excluded global. For this first pass, I excluded closed funds, high-minimum ones and those with a downside capture greater 1.00.
    Yacktman Focused (YAFFX)
    Capture 1.26
    Downside capture 0.7
    APR 10.6%
    Great Owl
    Yacktman (YACKX, $100k minimum with no backdoors that I can find)
    Capture 1.22
    Downside capture 0.71
    APR 10.1
    Great Owl
    Reynolds Blue Chip (RBCGX)
    Capture 12.1
    Downside capture 0.80
    APR 11.1
    The appeal of the Reynolds BCG fund is almost entirely driven by its performance during the 2007-09 crash. It appears to have been almost entirely in cash and simply sailed through it. $10,000 invested in RBCGX at the peak of the last market would be worth $36,000 today, the same investment in the S&P 500 index would be $26,000. Since then it's been entirely uninspiring.
    Madison Dividend Income (BHBFX, $25,000 minimum, $500 for an IRA but $100 at Schwab)
    Capture 1.20
    Downside capture 0.66
    APR 8.9
    Great Owl
    Intrepid Endurance (ICMAX)
    Capture 1.18
    Downside capture 0.46
    APR 6.6
    I hesitated to include ICMAX despite its long-term record. I love the absolute-value discipline and willingness to hold cash until the market offers rationally priced stocks. Cash is down to 42% of the portfolio now. That said, it's made about 1% a year over the past 3- and 5-year periods and has undergone three sets of manager turnovers: Cinnamond to Wiggins to the current team, with president Mark Travis in and out, in and out.
    Monetta Core Growth (MYIFX)
    Capture 1.17
    Downside capture 0.89
    APR 11.4
    Investors consciously looking to keep their downside capture as low as they can would start with the Yacktman and Madison funds but might add
    First Trust Value Dividend ETF
    Capture 1.17
    Downside capture 0.72
    APR 9.2
    Great Owl
    Prospector Opportunity (POPFX)
    Capture 1.14
    Downside capture 0.75
    APR 9.0
    Great Owl
    The best fund that's fallen between those cracks is Parnassus Equity. It, along with the Yacktman funds, are the only fund in the lower downside capture group to exceed 10% annual returns over the full market cycle. It adds the attraction of a long-standing commitment to an ESG-screened portfolio.
    Parnassus Core Equity (PRBLX)
    Capture 1.17
    Downside capture 0.79
    APR 10.6
    Great Owl
    David's disclosure: I'm playing with possible articles for February and March, with an eye to finding options for indolent investors (that is, those who might shift their portfolios once every year or two) and, possibly, newer investors who have the necessity of starting their portfolios in a market that might well slap them in the face soon.
    Is this a useful focus? How might I improve it?
    I did update the list following Stillers suggestion to add ticker symbols. At that point I also figured out that Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth had closed and that I was having trouble finding a way about Yacktman's $100,000 minimum, so I added Intrepid and Monetta since they were the next funds on the list.
    David
  • Best of the Best Fidelity Funds to Buy
    @ron
    From Jan 3, 2018 to Jan. 2, 2020; about 29.6% total return for FCPGX.
  • Best of the Best Fidelity Funds to Buy
    https://investorplace.com/2020/01/7-best-of-the-best-fidelity-funds-to-buy/
    7 Best of the Best Fidelity Funds to Buy
    These Fidelity funds are some of the best from the issuer's expansive lineup
    Many investors think of Fidelity as a giant in the actively managed mutual funds space. That is true, but Fidelity funds run the gamut of actively-managed mutual funds to passive index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
  • why it’s about to become much harder to save for retirement
    https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-saving-advice-2020-from-blackrock-bond-cio-rick-rieder-2019-12
    BlackRock’s $1.7 trillion bond chief explains why it’s about to become much harder to save for retirement — and shares his best advice for doing it successfully
    Safe, high-yielding investments are shrinking in availability at a time when retirement savers need them the most, according to Rick Rieder, the global chief investment officer of BlackRock’s $1.9 trillion fixed income business.
    He estimates that 1.8 million people in the US will hit the retirement age of 65 every six months — double the pace from 20 years ago.
  • Best Growth Stock Mutual Funds
    DFDPX is numero uno in the large growth category. Worth paying 0.99% for 43% growth in one year, wouldn't you say?
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/dfdpx/quote
    .99% wouldn't be too much to pay for 43% growth - IF someone had bought the fund before 2019. But today, Jan 2, 2020, last year's performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. If you don't believe it, read the prospectus.
    The girls who were pretty last year will likely be pretty this year. But funds that were pretty in 2019 won't necessarily be pretty in 2020.
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER January 2020

    Taking the initiative to start a new B/S/P thread.
    Bought starter set of 500sh TEAF (a Tortoise CEF) specializing in what I see as interesting alternative income investments.
  • FMIJX: magical numbers from Morningstar?
    Agree with msf.
    From my looking about at M*, most mutual funds retain 2019 and prior year numbers properly as of Jan. 1. ETF's returns have already rotated numbers (apparently at midnight) and show 0% for YTD (being 2020 reference).
  • Restrictions on Exchanges: OREAX, OUSGX, OQGAX?
    @msf beat me to the punch (and no offense taken),
    A recent SEC filing may shed some light:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1112996/000119312519313349/d849009d497k.htm
    The reorganizations are expected to be consummated in or around April or May 2020. Upon closing of the reorganizations, shareholders of the Target Fund will receive shares of a class of an Acquiring Fund that are equal in value to the shares of the corresponding class of the corresponding Target Fund that the shareholders held immediately prior to the closing of the reorganization, and the Target Fund will liquidate and cease operations.
    A combined Information Statement/Prospectus will be sent to shareholders of each Target Fund which will include a full discussion of the reorganization and the factors the Boards of Trustees considered in approving the Agreement. Shareholders of each Target Fund do not need to approve the reorganization.
    It is currently anticipated that the Target Fund will close to new investors approximately two business days prior to the closing date of the reorganization to facilitate a smooth transition of Target Fund shareholders to the Acquiring Fund. All investors who are invested in the Target Fund as of the date on which the Target Fund closes to new investors and remain invested in the Target Fund may continue to make additional investments in their existing accounts and may open new accounts in their name. The Acquiring Fund will remain open for purchase during this period.
    The above link was in the "Invesco/Aim Funds name changes & reorganizations (a lot of them too many to identify)" which is now in the Bullpen:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54627/invesco-aim-funds-name-changes-reorganizations-a-lot-of-them-too-many-to-identify
    (See the fifth and eighth links in the hyperlink above)
  • Restrictions on Exchanges: OREAX, OUSGX, OQGAX?
    Very likely. These three funds (and many others) are being acquired by other existing funds. In the case of five-star OUSGX, that's being absorbed by three-star STBAX.
    With apologies to Shadow, who likely already posted this SEC filing, here's a short (2 page) filing on the acquisitions:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105377/000119312519313341/d849009d497.htm
    It says that "The reorganizations are expected to be consummated in or around April or May 2020." Also that "It is currently anticipated that the Target [old] Fund will close to new investors approximately two business days prior to the closing date of the reorganization to facilitate a smooth transition."
    Maybe they just decided to close off new investments early, especially since it seems that the acquiring funds already exist and are open for business. As you wrote, communications don't seem to be great here. Maybe the notation just means that you should expect the fund to be closed soon. Or maybe the legal beagles just haven't communicated to the tech staff that the restrictions are not to be implemented now but in the future.
  • You May Need a Different Kind of Financial Professional for Retirement
    From the AAII Journal, January 2020. Written by Julie Jason.
    "For those who are soon to retire or have recently retired, there is an inflection point between receiving a paycheck from an employer and a paycheck from your portfolio. For retirees who rely on their investments for retirement income, it is also one of the riskiest, if not the riskiest, time in an investor’s life. After all, you won’t go back to work for 45 years to recover from mistakes.
    What type of financial service is best for the retiree who needs to “live off of” their investments?"
    ARTICLE
  • 529 Account Question
    In NYS your tax bracket won't be that much lower in retirement - the first dollar of taxable income is taxed at 4%, and it doesn't take much ($23K for couples) to see that go up to 5.25% or even 5.9% (at $28K).
    Of course NYS doesn't tax SS, so let's say that you'll be saving around 2% on the difference in rates between now and when you retire. (NY recaptures the deduction by taxing the past contributions when you make nonqualified withdrawals. See IT-201 Line 22.)
    Assuming that the excess contributions earn a cumulative return of at least 20% over the years, the 10% penalty on the earnings will more than wipe out any savings on the NYS side.
    Beyond that, what you've got is essentially a non-deductible IRA. The money goes in post-tax (federal), the earnings are sheltered, and then taxed as ordinary income rather than cap gains/qualified divs when withdrawn.
    Post-tax contributions can make sense if you're planning to invest in very tax-inefficient funds, like the 529 Income Portfolio. But if you're planning on investing in something more tax-efficient, I don't think that nondeductible contributions pay off.
    Here's another way to ask the question: are there readers who would contribute to a nondeductible IRA if they could not convert it to a Roth? If this is not a winner, and if the 10% penalty consumes any benefit you get from the (temporary) NYS tax deduction, then there's not an obvious benefit in making the excess contributions.
  • *
    I am making some year end changes in my taxable portfolio, positioning for 2020. At the end of a calendar year, and the beginning of the next calendar year, I determine which funds I want to continue holding, in what amounts, and choose replacement funds I hope to hold for the entirety of the following calendar year. The 2 funds I am selling are DBLSX and BTMIX. Although I was pleased with their 2019 performance, with their performance exceeding their historical TR averages, I prefer to shift those assets into "slightly riskier" funds, which I believe will improve my TR in my taxable account in 2020. Additionally, I will be taking some RMD distributions from my IRA account, and sending those distributions into my taxable account as well. I expect to deploy those total cash assets into new and existing taxable funds the first week of 2020
  • Stocks soared this year. Half of millennials missed out
    Don't worry, the rest will get in just in time for the crash, just like they'll start to vote Republican and complain about wasteful government spending after they begin receiving Social Security and Medicare. By the way, I would take the improvement to human capital, i.e., salary and job prospects, from an expensive college degree over stock market gains any day of the week. Admittedly, the cost of that degree should be a lot less than it currently is.
  • Fund Spy: The Thrilling 34
    Russel Kinnel
    Dec 30, 2019
    Mentioned: American Funds AMCAP A (AMCPX) , American Funds American Balanced A (ABALX) , American Funds Capital World Gr&Inc A (CWGIX) , Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) , Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX) , Vanguard Explorer Inv (VEXPX) , Fidelity® Diversified International (FDIVX) , Fidelity® Low-Priced Stock (FLPSX) , Fidelity® Select Health Care (FSPHX) , American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A (AGTHX)
    "Every year I write about the Thrilling 34--although the number varies slightly each time. The idea is to focus on the most important factors and let them do the weeding for me. The goal is a short list of outstanding funds accessible to individual investors. This isn’t a list for huge pension funds."
    ARTICLE HERE
  • both stock and/or balanced AND bond fund suggestions
    Hi @Crash,
    My three hybrid type fund picks, from the growth and income area of my portfolio, would be AMECX, CAIBX and TIBAX. All three of these are good income generators plus they will grow your capital over time. From the income area of my portfolio my three hybrid type fund picks would be BAICX, FKINX and JNBAX. All three of these are good income generators however they have less equity risk associated with them and principal will not grow as fast when compared to those coming from the growth and income area.
    Remember ... members when signed in ... you can click on the fund's ticker symbol and select from a menu of fund reports to view.
    In addition ... I like @davidrmoran picks as well and I have been thinking of adding JABAX to the growth and income area of my portfolio. I already own PONAX in the income area of my portfolio.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • GMO 7 Year Forecast
    That helicopter money has to go somewhere. Me thinks ... stocks! And, with this, stock valuations soar! Along with expansion of P/E Ratios. Seems that is what has taken place this year ... and, most likely most of next (2020).
  • GMO 7 Year Forecast

    The era of cheap debt and/or helicopter money from central banks tends to render predictions of anything less than further equity gains to be moot, I daresay.
  • both stock and/or balanced AND bond fund suggestions
    For a taxable account, I continue to recommend VTMFX.
    From Morningstar: “A balanced fund that seeks to distribute primarily tax-exempt income... essentially a combination of Vanguard Intermediate Tax-Exempt and Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation.”
  • Take a Flight to quality?
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/flight-quality-171827578.html
    Flight to quality
    From smart asset
    -SImply put, flight to quality moves some of your investment capital from riskier investments.-