FYI: (Slide mouse to 17:20 minutes for Andrew Foster interview.)
Andrew Foster of Seafarer Capital Partners said that trade and tariff wars have not stopped growth in emerging markets, but they have exacerbated a slowing trend, particularly in China, that will make developing and emerging markets harder to profit from in the near future. Foster noted that valuations in emerging markets are reasonable, but without growth to help drive the market, investors should expect muted returns from emerging markets for the long-term future. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com talks about how many workers are not increasing their set asides to retirement plans, Sam McBride of NewConstructs.com -- no relation -- discusses a stock that is headed for trouble and Greg Woodard of Manning and Napier covers stocks in the Market Cal
Regards,
Ted
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe/e/63468599?autoplay=true
M* Snapshot SFGIX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sfgix/quote
M* Snapshot SFVLX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sfvlx/quote

Best Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for the Rest of 2019
https://money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/slideshows/the-best-blue-chip-stocks-to-buy-for-the-rest-of-the-year
U.S. News & World Report
Invested
Advice, rankings and stock market news for investors.
Aug. 26, 2019
Today's Big Idea
Best Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for the Rest of 2019
With 10-year Treasurys yielding just 1.6%, conservative investors have few options in the stock market today. Proven large-cap stocks with robust business models are a solid choice for investors.
Here are seven of the best blue-chip stocks to buy for the rest of 2019.
1. Target Corp. (ticker: TGT). While the terms “Target” and “robust business model” might not bubble into consciousness simultaneously, perhaps they should. The big-box retailer is coming off a blockbuster second quarter in which online sales jumped 34%, earnings per share advanced 20%, and management raised full-year EPS forecasts.
2. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Johnson & Johnson has been considered a reliable blue-chip stock for over a century, and if it weren’t for a stronger dollar, sales would be rising in the mid-single digits internationally right now. JNJ shares offer a 2.9% dividend. – John Divine
Target Corp. (TGT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, BRK.A)
Walmart (WMT)
AT&T (T)
PepsiCo (PEP)
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD)
1290 Diversified Bond Fund TNUAX
$62.3M
6.61%
1290 DoubleLine Dynamic Allocation Fund TNXAX
$60.5M
4.32%
1290 GAMCO Small/Mid Cap Value Fund TNVAX
$101.9M
-6.64%
1290 Global Talents Fund TNYAX
$27.5M
-10.23%
1290 High Yield Bond Fund TNHAX
$35.1M
4.74%
1290 Low Volatility Global Equity Fund TNZIX
$3.4M
5.08%
1290 Multi-Alternative Strategies Fund TNMAX
$18.6M
-2.28%
1290 Retirement 2020 Fund TNIIX
$10.6M
4.37%
1290 Retirement 2025 Fund TNJIX
$17.7M
4.34%
Data as of August 26th, 2019
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FYI: U.S. stock futures pointed to a recovery Monday morning after President Trump said China is ready to come back to the negotiating table following a phone call Sunday and the two countries will start talking very seriously.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded 154 points higher, indicating a rise of 208.10 points at Monday’s open, as of 3:27 a.m. ET Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also pointed to opening gains for both indexes.
Global stocks and government bond yields fell on Monday as a new escalation in commercial tensions between the world’s two largest economies cast fresh doubt on growth prospects.
Regards,
Ted
:
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-fall-as-trade-tensions-escalate-11566787858
Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-25/yen-gains-stocks-to-drop-as-trade-war-ramps-up-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-china-trade-war-trumps-apple-stock-market-rally-fed-cuts-tesla-boeing-micron/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/25/dow-futures-drop-300-points-at-the-open-as-us-china-trade-war-escalates.html
U.K.
Closed
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-tumble-on-trade-war-blows-idUSKCN1VG0HQ
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-sink-as-trump-ratchets-up-trade-tensions-2019-08-25/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/treasury-yields-fall-investors-flee-risk-trade-war.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/forex-markets-us-china-trade-war-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/oil-markets-us-china-trade-war-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/gold-markets-us-china-trade-war-us-stocks-in-focus.html
Cuirrent Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FYI: With stocks just below all-time highs and bond yields near record lows, many investors are left searching for capital appreciation and current income. There’s one often-overlooked asset class that could satisfy both needs, while insulating investors from a downdraft: convertible bonds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/as-uncertainty-rises-investors-may-seek-the-defensive-attributes-of-convertible-bonds-51566559802?refsec=funds
M* Snapshot FISCX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fiscx/quote
Lipper Snapshot FISCX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fiscx
FISCX Is Unranked In The (CS) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/convertibles/franklin-convertible-securities-fund/fiscx

FYI, this is a partial delay of a proposed Canadian tax law. It pertains to Canada's "allocation to redeemers" methodology.
As I understand it (from a brief skim of the article given below), the idea is that when you sell shares of a fund, any gains that it triggers (because the fund has to sell appreciated shares to raise cash) gets passed to you directly. That would seem to eliminate the problem of distributing capital gains annually, or at least cap gains triggered by redemptions. (The fund is allowed to reduce its tax liability by the amount of the gain it allocates to the redeeming shareholder.)
I'm not sure if I got that right. Just a quick skim, and not all that interested in Canadian tax laws. But for those who are, here's a background piece:
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=18581104-5813-4f3e-a434-5a144cc25cd2

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/newspaper_/news-newspaper/etfs-get-reprieve-on-tax-proposal/
ETFs get reprieve on tax proposal
The Dept. of Finance releases draft legislation concerning the “allocation to redeemers” methodology and extends the capital gains-related timeline for ETFs
Sorry thought relate to us.. But article about Canadian taxation s

FYI: Emerging markets stocks will bury U.S. equities over the next seven years, according to GMO.
The asset manager has predicted that shares of large U.S. companies will lose 3.7 percent annually over that period, while emerging equities will deliver a 5.2 percent real return on an annual basis. With international equities expected to post relatively small gains, the firm predicted that emerging value stocks will have the strongest annual returns at 9.8 percent.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1gtwj5y79j84k/GMO-Says-Emerging-Markets-Stocks-Will-Trounce-U-S-Equities

FYI: Major US index ETFs have seen a major bounce off of oversold levels over the last week. You can see the big jump in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer tool below. Even with gains of 2-3% across the board over the last week, however, all of the ETFs shown remain below their 50-day moving averages. Bulls still have work to do to put the onus back on the bears.
As stocks sit higher versus last week, defensives are once again overbought with Utilities (XLU) at extreme levels and Real Estate (XLRE) not far behind. Along with Technology (XLK), these ETFs are the only ones that are currently above the 50-DMA. Meanwhile, more cyclical sectors like Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Materials (XLB) all remain oversold. Granted, as with the small and mid-caps above, these three ETFs in addition to Industrials (XLI) and Health Care (XLV) were sitting at extreme oversold levels this time last week.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/trend-analyzer-8-22-19-overbought-oversold-see-saw

@Bee, I have a large cash pile from account consolidations in recent years that for the most part has yet to be deployed into anything other than rolling-over t-bills. I've been using that dry powder to buy new / add to existing positions in recent weeks to my otherwise rather healthy longterm portfolios and am becoming more aggressive b/c I hate to have it just sitting there.
(I don't consider that cash as part of my investment 'holdings' per se, which is why I say that 90% of what I'm invested in are stocks and stock funds -- I don't own much FI or alts or commodities, etc.)

@rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you by equities hand over fist? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment ( for example I use yearly growth above 10% as my trigger for Large Cap).
This "milk" is stored for future retirement income to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from selling my equities when they temporarily tank.
My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform.

@rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you buy equities "hand over fist"? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment (for example, I use yearly growth above 10% as my "milking trigger" for Large Cap).
This "milk" is stored for future retirement income (to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from being forced to sell equities when they are temporarily under valued.
My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform. This could serve as a source of money to buy equities when they temporarily go on sale.
Your thoughts?

Quick question folks...as a retail investor can I buy Fidelity Advisor Funds (example FAGOX) via my brokerage?
To clarify, I have a self-managed T. Rowe Price IRA and it seems I can buy several classes of Fidelity Advisor Capital Opportunities Fund through their brokerage for no transaction fee or load.
I'm confused because the word "Advisor" implies I can only buy and sell Fidelity Advisor funds via a 3rd party (ie: a financial planner or advisor).
Have I got the whole situation wrong?

Sold out of most mama's fidelity equities positions at openings . Will Add more Fbnd and fidelity2015 TDF

The fund companies finally realized that one size does not fit all, so they've got multiple series of TDFs.
Would your Fidelity 2015 fund be:
FFVFX (Freedom® 2015), that "Seeks high total return until its target retirement date. Thereafter, the fund's objective will be to seek high current income and, as a secondary objective, capital appreciation"?
Or FLIFX (Freedom® Index 2015), that "Seeks high total return until its target retirement date. Thereafter, the fund's objective will be to seek high current income and, as a secondary objective, capital appreciation"?
Or FIRUX (Simplicity RMD 2015), that "seeks total return until its horizon date through a combination of current income and capital growth. Thereafter, the fund's objective will be to seek high current income and, as a secondary objective, capital appreciation"?

Mostly just watching the show. (Did make one minor portfolio adjustment this afternoon to lock in a loss.) Things have become interesting. Just checked my YTD returns. Up 9.8% through COB today. That's good for my asset mix. Don't really have a good sense for where the market will go from here. Even if I did, it would have a 50% chance of being wrong!
@hank 's method for squirreling away 2020 $'s makes sense to me. I have enough $'s in ZEOIX, SHV, and few other similar funds in my Cash Pot to take of that (that's as close to "cash" as I get). Distributions near the end of the year will cause me to do some portfolio shuffling however.....

Nada. Month ago I stashed 100% of 2020 budget needs in cash - near the year’s highs. Worked well last year.
Otherwise, steady as it goes. If I was 10-15 years younger I’d be fire-walking / buying down with every 750-1000 point drop in the Dow. Too old for that kinda s*** any more.
Thanks to those who have / will respond. Interesting market. Bears watching. If this continues, there will be calls from many (including some in Congress) to fire Powell. Such is the environment we find ourselves these days. (And I’m trying very hard to steer clear of politics.)

It takes Krugman 529 words to say that none of us understands wtf is going on with interest rates?
Edit: Kinda busy today. Some chopped up observations ... I don’t think Krugman’s wrong. He just tosses out a number of possibilities - already widely understood.
What I suspect may be the unmentioned elephant in the room is (broadly defined) global demographics. Many nations are experiencing declines in working age populations and increases in the elderly. And, the elderly are living longer. A lot of the change relates to the devastation / loss of life stemming from WWII. Babies born shortly after the war ended are now 70-75 years old.
That demographic shift puts enormous pressure on income producing instruments because the elderly have shorter anticipated time horizons over which to invest and lower risk tolerance in general. Bonds, including those held via various insurance products, become an investment of choice for a growing sector of the populations in the more advanced (wealthier) global economies. This drives rates downward.
So, what accounts for the seemingly unstoppable gains in equities? That’s more complicated. But I suspect a few factors: (1) the loss of defined benefit retirement plans has driven many inexperienced investors into the equity markets leading to more exaggerated boom & bust cycles; (2) money has been driven into equities the low and lower interest rates, (3) global productivity has increased due to the technology revolution. (4) To some extent, the advent of “instant feedback” brought about by the web has prompted more risk taking by market participants than when we relied mainly on time-lagged print sources for news and information. (Think of the “casino effect” on human behavior.)

This is a really interesting question, but this article is a disappointing quasi-answer. Ben and Christine spend too much time talking about low-probability situations and muddying the whole issue.
I think the final conclusion is
"ETFs .... tend to make far more regular use of their ability to redeem in-kind than do traditional mutual funds. And that really is the linchpin of their tax efficiency, the ability to lift securities out wholesale, not actually transact in them, which might involve unlocking some embedded gains."
David

John:
If you mean a time where the Treasury (and other sovereign Govts) are unable to service their debts, at least more than for a day or 5, well my crystal ball tells me something else will occur. (see next paragraph) --- Though if you are truly concerned, then the thing to buy is gold bullion. Not ETFs, not mining stocks, nothing with a 3rd party custodian. Just gold, which you self-custody somewhere in your personal residence. The "worst" you can expect from bullion, is that it will retain its purchasing power over time. The "best" is that it soars in value when conventional asset markets become dislocated for some indeterminate period of time.
Look, the whole world is awash in debt, not just the USA. So there will be a global solution, involving most major currency sovereigns. The CBs already have a playbook to address it, once we approach the financial "cliff". I don't know what's in the playbook, but I suspect ONE of the plays will be for each sovereign Treasury to issue new private-placement debt (PPD) to their respective central bank. The terms of the PPD would be: a) no maturity (i.e. perpetual), and b) 0.0% coupon. So "free money". The proceeds received from the CB to the Treasury could be used to pay off existing public bondholders as those debts fall due. --- So definitionally, there would be no "default". Moving to PPD financing has enormous implications. But the key is, there need not be any "default".

When will Us bankrupt or default on their bonds
I worry about my nephews nieces children living in a poor economic system in 20+yrs
I wonder what potus congress doing about fed deficits beside kicking can down road after 2020
Think it will be very difficult to pass laws /convince US citizens /tax workers (voters small business owners) >40s% in taxations and rich folks ~ 70% to pay (for all free Healthcare and green deals and 1k monthly each millennials)
I would vote for yang if he gives me one k monthly and a free Corvette
As rono would say - time buy more (physical) gold?!? -

When will Us bankrupt or default on their bonds
I worry about my nephews nieces children living in a poor economic system in 20+yrs
I wonder what potus congress doing about fed deficits beside kicking can down road after 2020
Think it will be very difficult to pass laws /convince US citizens /tax workers (voters small business owners) >40s% in taxations and rich folks ~ 70% to pay (for all free Healthcare and green deals and 1k monthly each millennials)
I would vote for yang if he gives me one k monthly and a free Corvette
As rono would say - time buy more (physical) gold?!? -

@JohnN: Sorry John, but I don't call losing sixteen months of interest at 7.375% nice. I'm not complaining, bought the bond on7/19/17 at little less than par, so the capital appreciation plus a excellent yields was a win-win. Now I'll have to put the proceeds to work at a lot less the 7.375%
Regards,
Ted

FYI: U.S. stock index futures were higher Monday morning, after China’s central bank set the official midpoint reference for the yuan at a stronger-than-expected level.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set its daily midpoint for yuan trading — which determines the limits for its onshore movement — at 7.0211 per dollar. That was weaker than Friday’s session, but beat market expectations.
On the data front, the Federal Budget for July is expected to be published at around 2:00 p.m. ET.
In corporate news, Sysco and Barrick Gold are both expected to publish quarterly earnings before the opening bell.
Bloom Energy and Tencent Music will report their latest results after market close.
Stocks across the globe rallied Monday, with Chinese markets advancing by the most in over a month, following a roller-coaster week in which U.S.-China trade tensions shook asset prices across the board.
The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.5% after the Chinese central bank set the yuan at a stronger rate than traders had expected—7.0211 to the dollar—easing concerns of a quick devaluation after President Trump last week accused China of manipulating its currency.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.9%, led by a 1% advance in Germany’s DAX.
The positive turn in markets comes despite fresh gloom around U.S.-China trade talks, with Mr. Trump on Friday suggesting that negotiations could break off.
Among the biggest gainers in Europe was Tullow Oil , TUWOY 2.75% whose shares rose 17% after the company said it had found more oil off the coast of Guyana. Shares in ams AG AMS -8.70% , a 3-D sensor maker that supplies to Apple, dropped 9% on reports that the Austrian company has put in a bid to take over German lighting company Osram Licht , creating a bidding war with private-equity buyers. Shares in Osram were up 10% early Monday.
In Asia, amid a day of light trading with a number of regional exchanges closed, Cathay Pacific fell 4.5%, putting the Hong Kong airline on course to close at its lowest level in more than a decade. China’s aviation authority on Friday ordered the carrier to remove all employees involved in the protests in Hong Kong from flights to mainland China. The most closely watched class of shares in Swire Pacific, the Hong Kong conglomerate that is Cathay’s largest shareholder, fell nearly 6%.
This week, investors will be watching for new consumer price inflation estimates from the U.S. on Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cited subdued inflation as one reason for cutting rates last week. Consumer prices increased 0.1% between May and June.
Regards,
Ted
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-jump-led-by-china-rebound-11565599208
Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-11/stocks-to-dip-after-u-s-drop-as-caution-reigns-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-apple-stock-amd-lockheed-amazon-zscaler-stock-market-correction/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-after-china-fixes-yuan-at-stronger-than-expected-level.html
U.K.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/uk-shares-gain-broadly-thomas-cook-tanks-idUKKCN1V20J8
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-rebound-ams-bid-for-osram-puts-ma-in-focus-idUSKCN1V20K5
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-make-cautious-gains-following-rocky-week-2019-08-11/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-lower-amid-trade-war-concerns.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/forex-markets-us-china-trade-concerns-remain.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/oil-markets-demand-outlook-us-china-trade-war-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/gold-market-trade-tensions-and-recession-worries-linger.html
Cuirrent Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx