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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GMO 7 Year Forecast
    That helicopter money has to go somewhere. Me thinks ... stocks! And, with this, stock valuations soar! Along with expansion of P/E Ratios. Seems that is what has taken place this year ... and, most likely most of next (2020).
  • GMO 7 Year Forecast

    The era of cheap debt and/or helicopter money from central banks tends to render predictions of anything less than further equity gains to be moot, I daresay.
  • both stock and/or balanced AND bond fund suggestions
    For a taxable account, I continue to recommend VTMFX.
    From Morningstar: “A balanced fund that seeks to distribute primarily tax-exempt income... essentially a combination of Vanguard Intermediate Tax-Exempt and Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation.”
  • Take a Flight to quality?
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/flight-quality-171827578.html
    Flight to quality
    From smart asset
    -SImply put, flight to quality moves some of your investment capital from riskier investments.-
  • GAMCO Global Series Funds, Inc. changes (some classes closing; lower minimum I class)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/909504/000119312519324974/d857920d497.htm
    The Gabelli International Small Cap Fund
    The Gabelli Global Rising Income and Dividend Fund
    Gabelli Global Mini MitesTM Fund
    (each a “Fund,” and collectively, the “Funds”)
    Supplement dated December 27, 2019 to each Fund’s Statutory Prospectus dated April 30, 2019 and Statement of Additional Information dated April 30, 2019
    This supplement amends certain information in the Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”), each dated April 30, 2019, of the Funds. Unless otherwise indicated, all other information included in the Prospectus and SAI, or any previous supplements thereto, that is not inconsistent with the information set forth in this supplement, remains unchanged. Capitalized terms not otherwise defined in this supplement have the same meaning as in the Prospectus or SAI, as applicable.
    Closing of Class AAA, Class A and Class C Shares; Reduction in Class I Minimum Investment Amount
    The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of GAMCO Global Series Funds, Inc. (the “Corporation”), on behalf of each Fund, has approved the closing of each Fund’s Class AAA, Class A and Class C shares to new investors.
    Effective January 27, 2020, (the “Effective Date”) each Fund’s respective Class AAA, Class A and Class C shares will be “closed to purchases from new investors.” “Closed to purchases from new investors” means: (i) with respect to Class AAA and Class A shares, no new investors may purchase shares of such classes, but existing shareholders may continue to purchase additional shares of such classes after the Effective Date, and (ii) with respect to Class C shares, neither new investors nor existing shareholders may purchase any additional shares of such class after the Effective Date. These changes will have no effect on existing shareholders’ ability to redeem shares of the Funds as described in each Fund’s Prospectus.
    Additionally, on the Effective Date Class I shares of each Fund are available to investors with a minimum initial investment amount of $1,000 and purchasing shares directly through the Distributor, or investors purchasing Class I shares through brokers or financial intermediaries that have entered into selling agreements with the Distributor specifically with respect to Class I shares.
    Since the minimum initial investment amount for each Fund’s Class I shares purchased directly through the Distributor is the same as that for all other classes of each Fund’s shares, shareholders still eligible to purchase Class AAA and Class A shares of each Fund on or after the Effective Date should instead consider purchasing Class I shares since Class I shares carry no sales load and no ongoing distribution fees. Investors and shareholders who wish to purchase shares of a Fund through a broker or financial intermediary should consult their broker or financial intermediary with respect to the purchase of shares of a Fund.
    The Funds’ existing policies regarding conversions of Class AAA, Class A and Class C shares, as described in the Prospectus, will remain in place. Shareholders owning Class AAA or Class A shares of a Fund should consider converting their holdings to Class I shares of the Fund given the change in eligibility requirements for investing in Class I shares. Shareholders owning Class C shares of a Fund should also consider converting their holdings to Class I shares if they otherwise meet the eligibility requirements described in the Prospectus to convert their Class C shares of a Fund to a different share class. Conversions of Class C shares of a Fund to Class A shares of a Fund will no longer be permitted; rather, Class C shares of a Fund that would otherwise be converted to Class A shares of a Fund pursuant to the policies described in the Prospectus will instead be converted to Class I shares. Shareholders who hold shares of a Fund through a broker or financial intermediary should contact their broker or financial intermediary regarding any conversion of shares.
    Following the Effective Date, the exchange privilege described in the Prospectus under “Exchange of Shares” will remain in place and subject to the policies described therein. The principal effects of this will be:
    ● Shareholders owning Class I shares of a Fund will only be able to exchange their shares for Class I shares of another fund managed by the Adviser or its affiliates if they meet the minimum investment requirements for Class I shares of that other fund;
    ●Exchanges for Class AAA or Class A shares of a Fund will only be permitted for existing holders of Class AAA or Class A shares, as applicable, of the Fund into which such shareholder seeks to exchange; and
    ●Class C shares of the Funds will no longer be available as an exchange option for holders of Class C shares of other funds managed by the Adviser or its affiliates.
    Reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions will continue to be permitted for holders of the Funds’ Class AAA, Class A and Class C Shares.
    SHAREHOLDERS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    2
  • Roth or Trad IRA rollover?
    Yes sir..will ask advisors next few days and let you know
    .whether pay tax now or later it's always a question..just we can save money now for capital income and reinvest without worrying about tax maybe a good choice
  • Roth or Trad IRA rollover?
    We held Roth-IRA since 2014 after talking w our Edwards jones adviser..save so much capital gains income after taxations once retired..we've stopped the Roth few yrs ago and started sep-IRA
  • Roth or Trad IRA rollover?
    I'm not clear on the income/tax situation: "If she doesn't make enough money from which to deduct IRA contributions."
    So let's start with the mechanics. First, as @Gary1952 said, don't take a taxable distribution. If you're going to pay taxes, you're better off rolling it into a Roth. All its future earnings will be tax free, as opposed to taxable in a taxable account.
    The law allows rollover conversions directly from a 403(b) into a Roth IRA. This eliminates one step in the conversion process. But my limited experience in helping someone do this within TIAA suggests that the 403(b) administrators may not know what they're doing. (In that case, TIAA withheld state income taxes which they were not supposed to do.)
    Instead, a direct rollover to a T-IRA will preserve your options to convert or not. If you should convert the IRA (or a portion) to a Roth, don't have taxes withheld, else the amount withheld will be treated as a taxable withdrawal. In addition, the conversion moneycannot be withdrawn penalty free for five years. Because your wife is (and will continue to be) under 59½ the conversion money will be subject to the usual 10% early withdrawal tax until it becomes a qualified distribution. That happens five years after the conversion.
    Here's a short column discussing these two "traps":
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/roth-ira-conversion-10-penalty-trap
    In some states (I don't remember which state you're in), some retirement distributions (including IRA withdrawals/conversions, pension plans, etc.) can be taken state-tax-free. This feature may be age-restricted. For example, Colorado exempts $20K of retirement income (including IRA withdrawals) for people aged 55-64, and $24K for seniors. So if you're thinking about converting the money, it might make more sense for you to convert part of your T-IRA (if any) rather than part of your wife's. Not to mention that you're closer to RMDs.
    Page with table of how each state treats retirement income:
    https://taxna.wolterskluwer.com/whole-ball-of-tax-2018/state-retirement-taxes
    That gets us to whether it even makes sense to convert (which is effectively what you're doing if you do a direct rollover to a Roth). Not enough information to reasonably comment here, especially since I don't understand what you mean by "doesn't make enough money". Generally 100% of compensation can be contributed to T-IRAs (up to contribution limits, of course).
    The 12% bracket that @bee mentioned calls to mind another consideration: 0% capital gains. If you keep your total taxable income under $78,750 (sic), then you cap gains are taxed at 0% by the IRS. Note that this limit is slightly different from the $78, 950 limit for the 12% ordinary income tax bracket (MFJ).
    Too many considerations and too little information to comment intelligently about your conversion decision (which would be informational in any case and not constitute advice, as with all of this post).
  • Why Oil No Longer Rules The Stock Market
    This is a very well written article. Discusses the pros and cons of the energy market. It’s curious that the article is dated December 24. Oil (the commodity) has been moving higher for at least a month. Brent is leading NYMEX and topped-out at around $68 today. Was under $50 early in the year.
    The refiners should have followed oil higher. The closest thing I own (to refiners) is PRNEX. It’s a natural resources fund, but traditionally keeps a heavy footprint in energy. Here’s the top holdings (from Morningstar):
    Total SA
    Linde PLC
    Bp Plc, London
    Air Products & Chemicals Inc
    NextEra Energy Inc
    TC Energy Corp
    EOG Resources Inc
    Concho Resources Inc
    ConocoPhillips
    RPM International Inc
    With today’s .32% gain, PRNEX is now up close to 17% YTD. Most years that would be considered a nice return. However, with 30% & 40% gains in some other sectors, a mere 17% this year receives little respect.
  • *
    Vanguard sells ZEOIX along with all other OEFs it carries, with no transaction fee (up to 25 trades per year per SSN) to its Flagship customers. More to its Flagship Select customers.
    WellsTrade does not sell ZEOIX, so grandfathered customers cannot access it that way.
    Likewise, Firstrade does not sell funds offered by Zeo Capital Advisors.
    https://www.firstrade.com/content/en-us/researchtools/mutualfund
  • Munis poised for big year in 2020
    @_stillers sorry sir thought I read it earlier just a glimmer
    Basically author thought 2020 would be a big year for muni bonds since chance defaults still low
    There are still risks w possible raised interest rates , 2020 elections and tax issues but overall mini bonds markets still very atrractive
  • Eric Cinnamond's new fund Palm Valley Capital fund (PVCMX)
    Anyone still believes in him and his absolute value investing?
    This guy is a true deep value fund manager unlike most value fund managers like Oakmark folks.
    - Mrc
  • WealthTrack interview with Ed Hyman forecasting a positive 2020 outlook
    I can't hear the video so someone else will have to provide color. Apparently Mr. Hyman has an enviable record as the #1 Wall Street economist.
    Positive 2020
  • *
    ZEOIX has been on my wish list since 2014 when I wanted to find a low risk fund with similar risk-reward characteristics as the closed RPHYX. David did a nice review of ZEOIX back then and I know he has talked highly of it in interviews. Problem for me is that one of my buy criteria is not to pay a transfer fee for any fund. Alas, at Schwab and TRP where the bulk of my money sits there is that fee. I check periodically on my Schwab account to see if that has changed but it has not.
    For those interested, Zeo Capital Advisers has started another low risk credit fund with similar objectives and style to ZEOIX. It is called Zeo sustainable credit fund, ZSRIX.
    https://www.zeo.com/strategy/
  • *
    Gary: "...you may not need to start RMDs for your wife next year. Depends on when the SECURE Act kicks in."
    At Fidelity, at least, it apparently already has. I had mine setup on auto pilot through Fidelity to start in 2020. One 5-min phone call was all it took to move it out 2 years.
  • *
    Hi and Welcome to MFO @dtconroe
    You noted: "in 2020 she is required to begin her RMD process. Our approach to RMDs, is to take the total RMD amount at the beginning of the calendar year.
    --- If 2020 is the first year for RMD, the money doesn't have to be pulled until the end of the calendar year; with the exception if the money is needed sooner for other reasons. I allow the yearly RMD money to sit until near the end of a calendar year to continue to grow tax deferred.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • *
    Back to some investing topics! My wife has a traditional IRA, and in 2020 she is required to begin her RMD process. Our approach to RMDs, is to take the total RMD amount at the beginning of the calendar year, transfer it to our taxable account, and then make a reinvestment decision about this RMD transfer to our taxable account. My wife is even more conservative than I am, would put it in a tin can in the back of the yard if it was totally up to her, but has agreed to a conservative bond oef in her IRA account. Currently, she is totally invested in MWCIX, but I think we will diversify a little more into her account starting in 2020. IISIX is a fund that I am considering adding to her MWCIX fund for a little more total return, but still be supportive of her very low risk tolerance. We will try to produce enough TR in her account, to recoup the RMD withdrawal each year.
  • Gold stocks remain cheap
    I cut my gold investment, IAU, in half in early November. Mainly because rate hikes were being placed on hold and it felt like a recession was now pushed further in the future. I bought in Dec. '18 because of political turmoil, rising rates and the possibility of a major pull back in equities. I'm watching for the next sign of upward movement in gold to increase my stake again. I think when equities correct at some point, maybe in early 2020 gold may move again.
    I guess I've never heard the term gold stocks before, but I won't touch the miners. To volatile for this guy, but my hats off to those who know how to play them.