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@_Gary1952 Hi sir..don't put all your eggs in one basket Spread them out real estate bonds reits, corp Bond s, mini bonds ( (hospitals schools infrastructure airport etc) make sure have good ratings before buying
Easier said than done .Or just spread your monies between /buying Fbnd HYG MUB MUNI if too lazy to watch your monies or have no time
Thanks for the input john. The new muni fund would be a small part of my portfolio. I have a large CG from AKREX in my taxable account that I plan to capture next year and buy the muni fund with that CG. I have set up my retirement to use saved cash to supplement my SS for a couple of years. I plan to be in the 0% tax bracket. This muni fund may be used to extend the cash allowing me to do some Roth conversions.
I get my muni exposure through Nuveen All American Municipal Bond (FLAAX). This ticker symbol is for the A share class. Please know there are other share classes available for purchase.
Over the years I have been using a high % in one of the following funds NHMAX ORNAX OPTAX PHMIX by using momentum.
My HY Munis fund opened the year with a bang (already 0.7+% in just a week). All my taxable is invested in that fund. Time for me to add more money to HY Munis in IRAs, just like I did last year because it's better than Multisector funds. See YTD (chart)
I've been tracking PTIMX. Better monthly distributions than some, maybe most? It is indeed a Muni fund. (I own the sister-fund: PTIAX, Strategic Bond.)
As I have previously posted, Muni bonds have a strong seasonality factor that has been written about. January is one of the stronger periods of performance historically:
The Four Seasons of Muni Bond Investing FEBRUARY 14, 2019 BY SAGE ADVISORY
Timing is everything. For a municipal bond investor, annual seasonal trends can provide great entry and exit points, if executed properly. There are four distinct seasonal periods that occur annually due to structural factors inherent in the municipal bond market. If timed correctly, municipal investors can increase their probability of successfully trading these markets and reap the reward of better returns.
The four seasonal periods that affect the municipal market on an annual basis are January Reinvestment, Tax Season, June/July Redemptions, and the Holiday Season Slowdown.
January Reinvestment
Although not the heaviest period of bond maturity and coupon payments, January 1st does experience an elevated level of cash that needs to be reinvested. In addition, the lingering effects of the Holiday Season Slowdown contribute to a limited amount of new issue supply, as well as diminished levels of secondary supply offered by broker/dealers. This strong technical environment tends to last anywhere from a few weeks to well into February, depending on the direction and magnitude of market flows. For investors who can time liquidity needs, January represents one of the most advantageous times of year to raise funds.
Tax Season – late March through April
From late March until the end of April, the municipal bond market tends to see both a reduction in demand as well as a heightened level of selling to fund tax payments. (Selling tax-exempt municipal bonds to fund personal federal and state tax liabilities remains one of life’s great mysteries.) Regardless, tax season provides an attractive entry point for investors, as limited demand and improving new issue supply tend to push valuations to more attractive levels.
June/July Redemptions
The heaviest period of maturing bonds and coupon payments is during these two months and represents anywhere from 40% to 60% of annual redemptions. Typically, municipal issuers come to market during this time, which offsets the demand pressure from reinvestment. Unfortunately, over the past several years, municipalities have been paying down debt and reducing debt issuance, which has created a net negative supply environment. As long as new issuance remains below the long-term averages, municipal bonds will remain supportive during June and July and provide investors an opportune time to rebalance portfolios (such as reducing credit risk).
Holiday Season – late November through year-end
Thanksgiving should indicate a warning sign to investors regarding optimal liquidity and ample supply. During the week of Thanksgiving, the markets may be open; however, the focus of the market is limited. The last week of November and the first two weeks of December represent the final opportunity for investors to efficiently trade before the market essentially shuts down for the year. Junior traders and reduced staff remain the norm during the last two weeks of the year. Market making and risk taking are severely restricted and a noticeable liquidity premium on bonds is apparent. Fortunately, for those investors looking to put cash to work, the ability to purchase bonds from forced market sells offers the opportunity to add exposure at discounted levels.
The above 4 periods do not give a typical investor an insight on what to do. I see only 2 distinctive periods where you want to trade (or make adjustments) if you care and know how to do that. As a trader, I follow trends closely but I also noticed many times that Sep-Oct are bad months where funds NAV go down and why I sell my HY Muni at the end of Aug and buy shorter term duration HY munis instead and looking to get back in Nov-Dec.
HY Munis continue to defy gravity and NHMAX+ORNAX already are up 1+% in just 10 days
Well, if 1% in 10 days is (sic) "defying gravity"...
Meanwhile, LT bonds, the category that significantly outperformed all other bonds cats in 2019, the one you don't seem to cover/care about/know about, are up twice that, putting them into what you might regard as some kind of celestial orbit (I guess).
NHMAX+ORNAX had a great run in 2019. LT bonds isn't a category I usually use because of higher volatility. My goal is to stay within lower volatility funds but still make a good return. HY Munis also have tax-advantaged over LT bond. Lastly, if you read any reasonable book, article, advice about bonds, their recommendation is to stay with inter-term duration for a good reason.
NHMAX+ORNAX had a great run in 2019. LT bonds isn't a category I usually use because of higher volatility. My goal is to stay within lower volatility funds but still make a good return. HY Munis also have tax-advantaged over LT bond. Lastly, if you read any reasonable book, article, advice about bonds, their recommendation is to stay with inter-term duration for a good reason.
Hmmm...yet you routinely post here and elsewhere that you make (sic) "guerrilla trades" of, you know, stocks. Aren't stocks more volatile than LT bonds?
NHMAX+ORNAX had a great run in 2019. LT bonds isn't a category I usually use because of higher volatility. My goal is to stay within lower volatility funds but still make a good return. HY Munis also have tax-advantaged over LT bond. Lastly, if you read any reasonable book, article, advice about bonds, their recommendation is to stay with inter-term duration for a good reason.
Hmmm...yet you routinely post here and elsewhere that you make (sic) "guerrilla trades" of, you know, stocks. Aren't stocks more volatile than LT bonds?
Is the above has anything to do with the subject of this thread "Muni Bond party should continue in 2020' ? Did I post anything about my trades in this thread?
NHMAX+ORNAX had a great run in 2019. LT bonds isn't a category I usually use because of higher volatility. My goal is to stay within lower volatility funds but still make a good return. HY Munis also have tax-advantaged over LT bond. Lastly, if you read any reasonable book, article, advice about bonds, their recommendation is to stay with inter-term duration for a good reason.
Hmmm...yet you routinely post here and elsewhere that you make (sic) "guerrilla trades" of, you know, stocks. Aren't stocks more volatile than LT bonds?
Is the above has anything to do with the subject of this thread "Muni Bond party should continue in 2020' ? Did I post anything about my trades in this thread?
Comments
Hi sir..don't put all your eggs in one basket
Spread them out real estate bonds reits, corp Bond s, mini bonds ( (hospitals schools infrastructure airport etc) make sure have good ratings before buying
Easier said than done
.Or just spread your monies between /buying Fbnd HYG MUB MUNI if too lazy to watch your monies or have no time
See YTD (chart)
The Four Seasons of Muni Bond Investing
FEBRUARY 14, 2019 BY SAGE ADVISORY
Timing is everything. For a municipal bond investor, annual seasonal trends can provide great entry and exit points, if executed properly. There are four distinct seasonal periods that occur annually due to structural factors inherent in the municipal bond market. If timed correctly, municipal investors can increase their probability of successfully trading these markets and reap the reward of better returns.
The four seasonal periods that affect the municipal market on an annual basis are January Reinvestment, Tax Season, June/July Redemptions, and the Holiday Season Slowdown.
January Reinvestment
Although not the heaviest period of bond maturity and coupon payments, January 1st does experience an elevated level of cash that needs to be reinvested. In addition, the lingering effects of the Holiday Season Slowdown contribute to a limited amount of new issue supply, as well as diminished levels of secondary supply offered by broker/dealers. This strong technical environment tends to last anywhere from a few weeks to well into February, depending on the direction and magnitude of market flows. For investors who can time liquidity needs, January represents one of the most advantageous times of year to raise funds.
Tax Season – late March through April
From late March until the end of April, the municipal bond market tends to see both a reduction in demand as well as a heightened level of selling to fund tax payments. (Selling tax-exempt municipal bonds to fund personal federal and state tax liabilities remains one of life’s great mysteries.) Regardless, tax season provides an attractive entry point for investors, as limited demand and improving new issue supply tend to push valuations to more attractive levels.
June/July Redemptions
The heaviest period of maturing bonds and coupon payments is during these two months and represents anywhere from 40% to 60% of annual redemptions. Typically, municipal issuers come to market during this time, which offsets the demand pressure from reinvestment. Unfortunately, over the past several years, municipalities have been paying down debt and reducing debt issuance, which has created a net negative supply environment. As long as new issuance remains below the long-term averages, municipal bonds will remain supportive during June and July and provide investors an opportune time to rebalance portfolios (such as reducing credit risk).
Holiday Season – late November through year-end
Thanksgiving should indicate a warning sign to investors regarding optimal liquidity and ample supply. During the week of Thanksgiving, the markets may be open; however, the focus of the market is limited. The last week of November and the first two weeks of December represent the final opportunity for investors to efficiently trade before the market essentially shuts down for the year. Junior traders and reduced staff remain the norm during the last two weeks of the year. Market making and risk taking are severely restricted and a noticeable liquidity premium on bonds is apparent. Fortunately, for those investors looking to put cash to work, the ability to purchase bonds from forced market sells offers the opportunity to add exposure at discounted levels.
I see only 2 distinctive periods where you want to trade (or make adjustments) if you care and know how to do that.
As a trader, I follow trends closely but I also noticed many times that Sep-Oct are bad months where funds NAV go down and why I sell my HY Muni at the end of Aug and buy shorter term duration HY munis instead and looking to get back in Nov-Dec.
Meanwhile, LT bonds, the category that significantly outperformed all other bonds cats in 2019, the one you don't seem to cover/care about/know about, are up twice that, putting them into what you might regard as some kind of celestial orbit (I guess).
Lastly, if you read any reasonable book, article, advice about bonds, their recommendation is to stay with inter-term duration for a good reason.
Did I post anything about my trades in this thread?