Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning As of market close March 27th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
This past week, the weekly short volume average increased, a little, from 59% to 60% of the total volume for SPY. However, the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) declined from a reading of 62 to 54. This is good as the stock Index's valuation gained ground during week moving from a reading of 2305 to 2541 for a gain of 10.2% but has a decline of 25% from it's 52 week high. With this, the Index remains in bear market territory.
From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.68% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.29% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury at this time. With this yield advantage, I'm favoring my equity income funds on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm investing more for income generation more so than capital appreciation being retired. And, I feel my equity income funds presently offer me greater total return going forward, more so, than most of my bond funds.
I also feel that the stock market is oversold; but, not so much for bonds. It seems bonds are just now starting to look more attractive due to the sell off some have received this past week due to liquidity factors. According to my advisor, with whom I speak with weekly, the good stuff is still getting sold to cover margin calls as those margined are short of cash. For some asset classes, that are thinly traded, there seems to have been a liquidity crunch which has created downward price pressure. This for some investors could mean opportunity. And, now that I have a near full asset allocation in equities I have now begun to shop on the income side of my portfolio. Some funds that are on the income side of my portfolio that I'm seeing value in along with opportunity are FLAAX ... FRINX ... and, JGIAX.
My three best performing funds this week were all found in the growth area of my portfolio. They were LPEFX +16.51% ... PGUAX +14.04% ... and, AOFAX +12.87%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a good week ... and, I hope all goes well for you.
I am, Old_Skeet
Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions Regarding Boeing, it's quite possible that the company is just using the virus as a cover for eliminating its dividend. Sure, it put on a brave face in January (
"Boeing CEO says it will keep paying its dividend despite Max crisis").
But it did that by choosing to stop 737 production (thus "saving" cash), rather than cutting its dividend and using the cash to keep its supply chain in place. Now with the virus Boeing has the perfect excuse for doing what it should have done in the first place, suspend its dividend.
It had exhausted its credit lines. "
According to AFP banking sources, the aircraft manufacturer drew on the full $14 billion credit line it only just secured from banks last month". It had negative shareholder equity (-$8.6B) at the
end of 2019. It couldn't have sustained the facade much longer, virus or not.
From The New Republic, December 23, 2019,
Boeing Axes CEO as Company Hits New Heights of Self-Denialhttps://newrepublic.com/article/156092/boeing-axes-ceo-company-hits-new-heights-self-denial
Literally everyone The New Republic has approached on the vexing question of why Boeing keeps coughing up dividends throughout this fiasco has said the same thing, using almost the exact same words: Boeing has been extremely effective at pacifying Wall Street. Throughout this nightmarish year, Boeing’s stock has remained rock steady and may yet end the year with a modest gain. “Investors”—“people” even—“rely” on those dividends. If Boeing slashes or suspends its dividend, it will send “shock waves” throughout Wall Street.
From the NYTimes, December 16, 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-737-max.html
At the very moment Boeing announced it was ceasing production of its most important product, the company took steps to meet Wall Street’s expectations. As it announced the shutdown on Monday, it sent a simultaneous news release announcing a regular quarterly dividend for shareholders.
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
Fed Lifeline Shields Bond Funds Teetering on Brink of ETF ‘Hell’ This contents of this article may be behind a firewall if you press on the link. The following excerpts provide a general sense for its contents:
The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented step into U.S. corporate bonds helped cure many of the massive dislocations in exchange-traded funds -- and may have saved mutual funds from a similar fate.
After prices for the biggest fixed-income funds held in a kind of dazed stillness during the worst of the sell-off -- presumably because the bonds they owned simply weren’t trading -- net-asset values on some of them dropped precipitously earlier in the week as their outflows forced sales on a frozen market.
The steep declines were beginning to mirror prices reached in fixed-income ETFs, which were already trading at deep discounts to their underlying securities. Faced with $149 billion of redemptions so far in March -- after not seeing a monthly outflow since January 2019 -- mutual funds were forced to sell their holdings into a market caught in a cash crunch.
However, the Fed’s pledge Monday to buy investment-grade credit and certain ETFs helped halt the slide in mutual fund net-asset values and sparked a rally in higher-rated debt. That’s largely due to the fact that fund managers now have a willing buyer on the other side of the trade, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Mutual funds dodged a big bullet by not having to unload bonds into a market with no buyers,” said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst. “The Fed has now brought liquidity, and so they will get to avoid the ‘hell’ we saw ETFs in for the past month.”
The pain had just started to spread to mutual funds, which were initially able to satisfy redemptions by burning through cash and their more liquid securities, according to Kingsview Wealth Management’s Paul Nolte. The net-asset values began to drop as the fund managers were forced to try and liquidate harder-to-unload holdings into a market with few buyers -- but the Fed announcement broke the cycle, he said.
“They’ve stepped in, and we’re now finally starting to see a little bit more of a normal bidding process in the market,” said Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Wealth Management. “We’re probably a week away from a normally functioning market. It’s going to take some of these funds a while to work their way back to where they used to be.”
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/fed-lifeline-shields-bond-funds-teetering-on-brink-of-etf-hell
Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions "In this article I discuss dividend cuts or suspensions resulting from the coronavirus and oil price wars. Currently I count 49 total companies that have cut the dividend since the end of February to March 27,
2020. Please see the list at the bottom of the article. Most of the companies are in the travel, leisure, hospitality, restaurant, REITs, or energy sectors. The two most prominent dividend cuts to date are Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Boeing (BA)."
by Dividend PowerIn a related vein there is also this found snippet which I can neither confirm or deny from the latest issue of Barrons:
"Pg 35: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."
AGG Up 8.4% This Week Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 different companies are very close. For 5 years as of 3-27-
2020...BND(VG)+FXNAX(Fidelity)+AGG(Blackrock) performance is 3.36-3.37%.
This is what you call investing based on an index and why they are so close.
I didn't say ALL indexes in all cases, but, you knew all that.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Isn't this bond crash just a misallocation of capital? In reality, those who bought into bond funds that crashed hard took on bad debt, the conduit being the fund itself.
FD, several weeks ago, I commented on the investing principle of Taleb's or Bodie's black swan investing approach...85-90% of funds invested in the safest investment possible, the balance invested aggressively...I think that style has worked well and will continue to work well going forward. To the point you made then and for certain, one would have made greater gains over the past decade but then again the best gains can be made by compounding wealth, limiting drawdowns.
Not sure that I would touch Muni bonds here...recognizing there are many different types of muni bonds, I can't see folks buying new cars going forward, don't see how muni's can raise property taxes, folks will just stop paying them, local shops are going to be slow to ramp back up if at all, can only write so many parking tickets...and is counting on the gov't to fund/backstop an investment really investing or is it smart to do so, meaning having the wind at your back, kind of like front running the POMO (published permanent open market operations) in prior QE programs?
Good luck and good health to all,
Baseball Fan
Stocks close sharply lower after massive 3-day rally fizzles out "Stocks ended sharply lower Friday, giving back some of the strong
gains from the previous three days to cap another volatile week on Wall Street.
Sentiment took a hit as investors focused back on the coronavirus outbreak as the U.S. became the country with the most confirmed cases.
The Dow closed down 915 points, or 4%. The S&P 500 slid 3.3%, while the Nasdaq shed 3.8%."
Article From CNBC
All Wasatch Funds are open except International Opportunities (unless directly from Wasatch) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312520017093/d842170d485bpos.htmFrom the 1/31/
2020 prospectus:
Open/Closed Status of Funds. The Emerging India Fund, Emerging Markets Select Fund, Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund, Global Opportunities Fund, Global Select Fund, Global Value Fund, International Select Fund, Micro Cap Fund, Micro Cap Value Fund, Small Cap Value Fund, Ultra Growth Fund, and U.S. Treasury Fund
are each open to investors.
The Core Growth Fund, International Growth Fund, International Opportunities Fund and Small Cap Growth Fund are each closed to new purchases, except purchases by new or existing shareholders purchasing directly from Wasatch Funds, existing shareholders purchasing through intermediaries, and current and future shareholders purchasing through financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund. Fund officers may waive or revise the conditions of a closed fund for an intermediary depending on its ability to systematically apply the conditions .
When to start buying
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space RiverNorth, whose strategy centers on CEF arbitrage as the key to their competitive advantage, posts the following "Cliff Notes" version of their recent conference call.
The following provides a brief recap of the RiverNorth conference call held on March 19th.
Capital markets and economic volatility/uncertainty has led to unprecedented volatility in the CEF markets
RiverNorth estimates that 90%+ of the CEF market is owned by retail – and they are in full retreat
Co-portfolio manager Steve O’Neill described some of the CEF price action last week as a “9.5 out of 10 on the CEF panic scale”
Discounts hit (and in some cases exceeded) levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
To keep investors appraised of the opportunity set, RiverNorth started posting discount data here: rivernorth.com/cef-discount-info
The opportunity is broad based – nearly all CEF asset classes trading at historically wide discounts
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space Thanks Mark. Yes, I've seen the devastation there too. The Great Liquity Crisis of 2020. Something tells me things are going to change big time in the way CEFs, ETFs, and OEFs are priced. c
Infinite QE Is Destroying Traditional Bond-Fund Strategies Interesting reading. Themes include low interest rates for now, inflation possible down the road, cash is king, and lack of clear historical context for current situation.
Core tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, the value of bonds as a portfolio hedge, and expectations for returns over the next decade are all being reconsidered as governments and central banks strive to avert a global depression.
QE Kills Valuation Models -- Ordinarily, the prospect of a multi-trillion-dollar government spending surge globally ought to send borrowing costs soaring. But central bank purchases are now reshaping rates markets -- emulating the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy starting in 2016 -- and quashing these latest volatility spikes.
Inflation Risk -- Many market veterans agree that faster inflation may return in a recovery awash with stimulus that central banks and governments may find tough to withdraw...“There’s tension in all of this,” said Hamish Pepper, fixed-income and currency strategist at Harbour Asset Management Ltd. in Wellington, New Zealand. “I don’t think it’s necessarily about waking up one morning realizing that bond yields should be 100 basis points higher from here -- but you have to think about inflation at some point.”
Haven or Not? -- “Will government bonds play the same role in your portfolio going forward as they have in the past?” he said. “To me the answer is no they don’t -- I’d rather own cash.”
“It’s very hard to look at this in a historical context and then apply an investment framework around it,” said BlackRock’s Thiel. “The most applicable period is right before America entered WW2, when you had gigantic stimulus to spur the war effort. I mean, Ford made bombers in WW2 and now they’re making ventilators in 2020.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infinite-qe-destroying-traditional-bond-174459945.html
Edward P. Bousa of Wellington Fund to retire https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105563/000168386320001038/f2772d1.htm497 1 f2772d1.htm WELLINGTON FUND 497
Vanguard Wellington™ Fund
Supplement Dated March 27,
2020 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 27,
2020Important Change to Vanguard Wellington Fund
Effective at the close of business on June 30,
2020, Edward P. Bousa will retire from Wellington Management Company LLP and will no longer serve as a portfolio manager for Vanguard Wellington Fund.
Loren L. Moran, Daniel J. Pozen, and Michael E. Stack, who currently serve as portfolio managers with Mr. Bousa, will remain as portfolio managers of the Fund upon Mr. Bousa's retirement. The Fund's investment objective, strategies, and policies will remain unchanged.