I am trying to decide whether to pay off a fairly new 30-year (4% fixed) mortgage or ride it out the term or pay additional principle and reduce the payoff time. I am not using complicated math, just rudimentary figures and math.
I guess conventional wisdom is that if you can make more than the the interest rate investing, then invest. I want to come at this in a slightly different angle.
30-year (4% fixed) mortgage
$150,000 balance
$1,500 (P&I and a little extra for about a 10-year payoff)
If I continue on my current path, I will incur $50,000 in additional INTEREST.
If I invest the $150,000, using the rule of 72 and historical 7% return, then at the end of 10 years I would have doubled my investment to $300,000 gross, NET $150,000 profit.
Less the $50,000 of Mortgage INTEREST, I am left with $100,000 net gain after 10 years.
If I pay off my $150,000 mortgage balance, I then free up $1,500/mo and $18,000/yr. Over 10 years, that's $180,000 I can DCA invest (assuming no gains or losses).
Using this "fuzzy" math, ($180,000 - $100,000) I would net $80,000 MORE after 10 years, if I payoff the balance of my mortgage today.
FYI: At least ten years away from considering retirement
Any thoughts, suggestions, mild criticisms, etc are very welcome!
Thanks, Matt

Hi catch,
Yeah, have been watching this fund for a while. Finally just held my nose, closed my eyes and hit the buy button. Why? Will say this small, new PM....it's their only fund. AI focused saying all that if you look at top 10, the usual suspects are there. If you look at the annual report, you'll see more. Also high turnover, which is what I want. No big gains up over 3.5%. No love ...... just playing. Young funds tend to do really well first 3 years.....playing that. We'll see.
I forget.....what tech do you own? I know it's a big part of your portfolio, right? Also I'm like Skeeter. I own more than 1 fund in a sector 'cause I can't pick a winner. I'm thinking it's because of an alcohol-induced thinking disease of some sort.....lol. Lucky I have a brown furry 4-legger as backup......one could say Plan B.
God bless
the Pudd

Here’s the best & timeliest name for a newsletter I’ve ever seen. :)
https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/2020/02/03/the-daily-shot-chinas-central-bank-conducts-a-massive-liquidity-injection-to-cushion-the-coronavirus-impact/

@Mark My thinking involves income but also sometimes involves the potential for continued capital gains in our low interest rate environment. My nibbles included a little SPG. It is my only REIT purchase from last year that is currently in the red (by a few %). The others have done fairly well so far. SPG has reached agreement to participate in the purchase of the Forever 21 assets. Hopefully, they will be able to help turn that lemon into lemonade. Also, they are talking to Taubman Centers again about a possible merger. It will be interesting to watch how all the dust settles out from the retail mall apocalypse.

No second look needed here, I've held them for some time now. I bought them primarily for the income but I've enjoyed handsome capital gains as well. Most are a bit stretched at this time so I'm not adding but I do keep an eye out. SPG is a case in point.

Hi guys,
You know the drill. I bought a little on Friday......will post later.
God bless
the Pudd

"Long-term capital gains tax is a tax on profits from the sale of an asset held for more than a year. The long-term capital gains tax rate is 0%, 15% or 20% depending on your taxable income and filing status. They are generally lower than short-term capital gains tax rates."
2019-2020 Capital Gains Tax Rates — and How to Avoid a Big Bill

All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
While the decade for equity funds began flat or mixed, bonds were up, especially long-term (e.g., TLT +7.0%). Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX), a long-time MFO Great Owl, returned 1.6% in Januray. It's delivered nearly 10% this past year and regularly rewards with a 3% dividend.
You can read more about the update here.

If I wanted to take long term capital gains on a stock, what percent would that be and what is the lowest amount it could be based on? Thank you.

You can check out the Fortune rankings at the dinky linky

Welcome to the “It’s not the Super Bowl without the Steelers, but it’s great that Troy was recognized as a first-ballot Hall of Famer” edition of the Mutual Fund Observer which is posted at https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/february-2020/. Highlights include:

• my publisher's letter takes a swipe at robo-writers, and reports on an unusually fervent hug between Rob Arnott and Cliff Asness. Good news: the long-time sparring partners have agreed on something important. Bad news: it’s that 10-year returns look uniformly low. Both point you toward the long-unloved emerging markets, while Mr. Asness offers a version of “it’s time to be a bit grown-up” financial advice.


• a long-overdue profile of FAM Dividend Focus (FAMEX). Over the past year, we’ve done a series of data-driven articles that focused on equity-oriented funds that thrive when all others falter, but that still make decent returns. FAM Dividend Focus has earned its way into more of those articles than any other single fund. It was time to say just a bit more about it.


• Edward Studzinski has been meeting with, and sparring with, some very fine independent fund managers. He shares what he's learned about researching management strategies, the changing landscape, hubris and managers' insistence on tripping themselves up.


• “Getting More Bang” explores high capture / low downside capture equity funds. Capture ratio is a sort of “bang for the buck” measure: funds with a capture ratio over 1.0 are delivering more of the market’s upside than its downside. By picking a downside target (“I’m willing to take 90% of the market’s losses, but no more”), you can use the capture ratio to identify the funds which offer the greatest return for the risk you endure. It’s a simple and intuitive way to create your due diligence list. We offer the top 20 domestic and international funds.


• Lynn Bolin continues to explore the six rules of successful investing. This month: knowing your investment environment.


• Charles Boccadoro has responded to user requests for more fund portfolio data at MFO Premium; traditionally, we were analytics-rich but portfolio-poor. As he explains, that changed on February 1st.


• on a bright note, several first-rate funds have reopened to new investors, including RiverPark Short-term High Yield (RPHYX). RPHYX seems forever maligned because its portfolio doesn’t fit neatly in any box. RPHYX had the distinction of having the highest Sharpe ratio of any fund in existence for years. It's a low volatility / low-risk fund that's best used as a strategic cash fund. (I've owned it for a long time and use it in lieu of a savings account.) It has averaged 3.1% annually with a maximum drawdown, lifetime, of 0.6%. David Sherman's current reading of the market, bond as much as equity, is that it's time to maximize caution and his funds are positioned commensurately.

Liquidations, 74 manager changes, a dozen new names, two retirements and more …
The long scroll version is available at https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/2/.
As ever,
David

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/02/02/road-to-retirement-charlie-farrell-fleeing-one-investment-bubble-for-another/
Road to Retirement: Fleeing one investment bubble for another?
The Denver Post
With technology companies driving the stock market up seemingly week after week, it’s making some investors nervous and bringing up bad memories of the technology crash of 2000. So, is this just a repeat of what we saw before and is the stock market really in a bubble? Let’s take a look at some numbers.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-it-can-pay-to-buy-the-stocks-of-companies-you-love-to-hate-2020-01-31
Opinion: Why it can pay to buy the stocks of companies you love to hate
By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 31, 2020 6:24 a.m. ET
Start your search for diamonds in the rough by looking through the list of the most despised companies
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — To find a prince you sometimes have to kiss a frog.
That’s what we learned from fairy tales when we were children, and it may still be true on Wall Street. Consider Fortune magazine’s annual ranking of the most admired companies in America, the latest version of which was released in January. Historically, companies at the bottom of that ranking — the ones that are most despised — have outperformed those of the most admired.

Weird, small, mid-month dividend. Nothing, as expected and per usual, toward the end of Jan. How come?

Just be aware that on January 4, 2018 he said this:
"“I am so bullish I have to sit down and calm down,” the director of technical research for Altaira Capital Partners said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”".
All I'm saying is that you should have an investment plan in place before reacting to either of these statements otherwise you're just guessing/gambling.
Ralph Acampora: I am so bullish I have to sit down and calm down

"Gary1952">I opted for NVHAX over BTMIX when I bought on 1-2-2020. The allocation to NVHAX was in my taxable account with money for future (most likely 2 years down the road) monthly expenses. I like the stronger performance over BTMIX. The short duration downturn recovered quickly in 2017 but I will watch NVHAX closely and switch to BTMIX or possibly AAHMX if I see the need to change. I am not a trader so holding on thru a downturn is similar to holding equities in a correction. Thanks for the update.
Gary, best wishes on your decision. Comparing a HY Short Duration Muni fund with a BB credit rating, to an Investment Grade Short Term Muni fund with a A credit rating, is all about risk and return and having your eyes wide open. NVHAX has been a good fund but it is much more risky than BTMIX--in downmarkets, and outside of seasonally strong periods,Muni bond oef risks need to be appreciated.

Janurary 24, 2020

I opted for NVHAX over BTMIX when I bought on 1-2-2020. The allocation to NVHAX was in my taxable account with money for future (most likely 2 years down the road) monthly expenses. I like the stronger performance over BTMIX. The short duration downturn recovered quickly in 2017 but I will watch NVHAX closely and switch to BTMIX or possibly AAHMX if I see the need to change. I am not a trader so holding on thru a downturn is similar to holding equities in a correction. Thanks for the update.

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2020/01/even-in-hot-stock-market-tsp-investors-love-super-cool-g-fund/
Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
Despite 20-30-plus-percent returns for the TSP’s C, S and I stock index funds last year, a slight majority of federal workers investing for retirement have most of their optional retirement nest egg money in the super-safe, Treasury securities G fund.
The C fund, which tracks the S&P 500 index, returned 31.45% in 2019. The small cap S fund return was 27.97% and the international stock index I fund was up 27.97%. The F fund (bonds) return was 8.68% while the popular G fund returned 2.24% in calendar 2019.
As of Dec. 31, 2019, the TSP total value was $632.6 billion.