@Old_Skeet
You pretty much covered everything I mentioned already

In your analysis you reference CTFAX's inception date being 2012. This is wrong.

In your previous post you mentioned 2 funds CFTAX + CTFAX.

CTFAX's investment strategy is entirely different than VWINX. My point in using it was to reflect during the recent market volatility that CTFAX was the better performer and a way for a retail investor like myself could play market volatility.

I know that and why I mentioned numbers since inception but also the last 5 years + YTD

Below is my performance findings using Morningstar's performance numbers as of 4/14/2020

Correct, M* is up to date on performance BUT I look deeper at SD, Sharp,Max Draw,Sortino and these numbers are monthly one. I can easily find funds with better performance which is one criterion, what about the rest? I also look longer term because a fund can be great for 1-3-6 months but not 3-5-10 years. An investor who wants to hold long term these numbers are important.
When I checked CTFAX long term, it handled YTD amazingly and did a pretty good job for 3 years. If you look further VWIAX had better volatility, in 2008 Max draw for VWIAX was -18.7 while CTFAX -42.55
So, I'm guessing they changed the formula which is great because it's a good option.
BTW, COTZX is not available at Fidelity and Schwab which are 2 major discount brokers.
Here is my bottom line: CTFAX risk-adjusted performance for YTD and for 3 years are very good.

I presume this statement is relative to investment markets and not society.

Come fall I'm looking for things to pick up.

I remain to the thought that the glide path to "happy time" from a societal aspect is not close at hand. This circumstance is going to continue to impact various sectors of investments, due to consumer confidence and/or ability; or willingness, to spend.
Aside from daily data regarding COVID, remains the confidence of the public to become fully involved in "normal". From a northern perspective, is the great winter season migration to points south for several months. I suggest this area will provide a decent indicator of what is taking place.
I know several folks who own near beach front condos. They stay for several of the winter months, and then rent to in-state folks for the summer months for vacation time. Many of their neighbors don't stay at their own units during the winter months, but rent the unit for the winter season. These condo's are part of their investment portfolio.
All of the owners, from about 1 month ago; have all summer rental reservations cancelled. What remains to be seen is how many reservations will be placed and/or cancelled for those who need to plan ahead to the coming winter season of 2020.

“The market sentiment is quite clearly don’t fight the Fed. The analytical sentiment from talking to individual companies is very different,” said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis, Sayles & Company and manager of the flagship Loomis Sayles Bond Fund LSBDX, +0.64% , which manages $8.7 billion of assets.

https://marketwatch.com/story/disappointment-on-corporate-earnings-could-undermine-hopes-for-fed-to-rescue-markets-says-warren-buffett-of-bonds-2020-04-15?mod=home-page

The bullet points follow:
Signs that the coronavirus pandemic is easing drove stocks higher on Tuesday, even as the first batch of quarterly earnings showed the outbreak is taking a toll on corporate profits. The Dow climbed about 560 points, helped by Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, and Apple which rose 4.5%, 4.9%, and 5%, respectively. The S&P 500 also registered a significant gain, rising more than 3%.
The market rallied on the idea that “maybe the worst of the economic freefall is over” and talk about reopening the economy, Charles Schwab’s Jeffrey Kleintop told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday morning Singapore time. But Kleintop, who is chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, warned that “the stock market may have a tougher time from here.” He said one unknown is the possibility of a second wave of infections as lockdown measures lift.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s optimistic tone about the outbreak in his state, the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States, also boosted investor sentiment. He said Tuesday deaths related to the virus in the state are leveling off.
Still, the dismal earnings ahead from U.S. companies grappling with the coronavirus shutdown could spook investors. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to decline 10.2% in the first quarter year-over-year, according to Refinitiv.
Generally, bank earnings came in well below expectations on Tuesday due to the economic impact of the coronavirus. However, JPMorgan’s trading division also posted a 32% increase in revenue to a record $7.2 billion.
For the first quarter, 88 negative earnings pre-announcements have been issued by S&P 500 corporations, according to Refinitiv. A wave of major companies has already withdrawn their full-year guidance.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

@FD1000. In your analysis you reference CTFAX's inception date being 2012. This is wrong. The fund's inception date is 2002. Going back to 2002 takes into account the Great Recession. Why is this important because when stocks are cheap CTFAX loads equities and when they are expensive it holds less of them. CTFAX's investment strategy is entirely different than VWINX. My point in using it was to reflect during the recent market volatility that CTFAX was the better performer and a way for a retail investor like myself could play market volatility. I was pointing out that you had CTFAX's fund inception date wrong in your analysis. Again, the correct date is 2002 rather than 2012 which you used in your analysis. I'm thinking using the correct date will change things a good bit within your analysis. Within the past year its equity allocation has ranged from a low of 15% on upwards, most recently, towards 70%, perhaps more. Morningstar has it currently classified as 15% to 30% equity allocation fund. This could change and I think worth watching.
In addition, if one were to use a different share class COTZX rather than the A share version that I referenced this changes things a good bit performance wise as CTFAX performance since 2002 is 6.85% while it lower er cousin (COTZX) is 7.12%.
My reasons for owning the fund are listed below.
Takes advantage of market shifts. Follows a disciplined approach to adapt to market changes.
Rebalances automatically. Aims to buy low and sell high by adjusting equity exposure based on the price level of the S&P 500 Index. Pursues risk-adjusted returns.
Your analysis is interesting; but, it is not fully reflective of the CTFAX's performance since it's inception date is inaccurate and differs from my own alalysis which is detailed below.
Below is my performance findings using Morningstar's performance numbers as of 4/14/2020. Three month advantage CTFAX +8.02% vs VWIAX -3.31%, YTD advantage CTFAX +8.44% vs. VWIAX -2.99%, 1 Year advantage CTFAX +17.75% vs VWIAX +5.74, 3 Year advantage CTFAX +28.82 vs VWIAX +19.11, 5 Year advantage CTFAX +35.24% vs VWIAX +31.99%, 10 Year advantage CTFAX +108.70% vs VWIAX +105.51%.
Again, what I was communicating in my opening comment was that to play stock market volatility that CTFAX was a better choice over the widely followed, and touted by some, VWIAX. I'm thinking I just now provided the support, through the above analysis, necessary to posture my opening comment even on out through a 10 year period.
I'm still with my plan to increase my position in CTFAX with it soon to become one of my top five holdings due to its strong recent and time tested performance.
One can learn more about CTFAX through the below link.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
Skeet
Note: CFTAX was a typo error it should have read CTFAX.
In a comparison of CTFAX vs. PRWCX ... CTFAX betters PRWCX up to and through three years but trails in the 5 year and ten year comparison.

Interesting. However, I am finding that CTFAX's inception date is 2OO2. I wonder how this would change things. For me, CTFAX is not a complete investment strategy. I am using it to play stock market swings automatically rather than doing it manually. For me it seems to be the better fit.

In your previous post you mentioned 2 funds CFTAX + CTFAX. I guess we are talking about CTFAX.
PV (link) has data since 2003 and shows that both VWIAX+PRWCX were a better risk-adjusted choices than CTFAX but in the last 5 years (link) CTFAX was the better choice because YTD (chart) was great.
Your manual changes are a personal choice and what works for you.
Most investors can't/won't switch funds and I don't blame them, it's much harder.
VWIAX is a great LT, and low ER fund with a great management for most retirees.
I do trades all the time but I check it too. My LT goals are to make over 6% annually with SD < 3 and never lose more than 3% from any last top. Schwab calculates annual average performance + SD. My portfolio performance is higher than 6% and SD < 2(actually 1.71) and I never lost more than 1% from any last top in about 3 years.

There are two rules (that I know of) in CARES regarding $100K distributions from traditional IRAs. If one could combine them, one would have a fantastic loophole on Roth conversions. I don't think it works, though.
First, the basics. As catch noted, no RMDs for 2020. So the rule that "RMD amounts are not eligible to convert to a Roth IRA" doesn't apply this year since there are no RMDs. So you're free to convert any or all money you take out of a traditional IRA this year.
There never is an early withdrawal penalty for doing a Roth conversion.
One of the $100K CARES rules is that instead of being forced to do a rollover within 60 days, you can make an IRA withdrawal and then take up to three years to put the money back into a tax-sheltered account. Even better, you can put it back in parts, e.g. take out $100K, put $50K back in a year, and $50K back two years after that.
CARES Section 2202(a)(3).
I haven't been able to interpret this rule as allowing one to withdraw money from a T-IRA and take three years to put the money into a Roth (i.e. do a 60 day Roth rollover conversion). But I'm not an authority.
The second of the $100K rules says that if you don't put the money back into into a tax-sheltered account: a) you don't pay an early withdrawal penalty, and b) you get to declare the income over three years, 2020, 2021, 2022 ($33.3K/year).
Section 2202(a)(1) - no early withdrawal penalty
Section 2202(a)(5) - spread income over three years
Since there wouldn't be a penalty for a Roth conversion, all that might matter is the ability to spread income over three years. As with the rollover rule, I have a hard time seeing how it could be applied to Roth conversions.
But if you could apply both of these rules to a Roth conversion, you could take $100K from a traditional IRA, play with it for up to three years, deposit it into a Roth, and spread the taxes over three years, 2020-2022. Sweet deal if the law actually allowed that.

Hi VF
This is a very short form of info. Lots of info available, including your (I would hope) accounts web site.
--- When converting a traditional IRA, keep in mind:
If you are required to take a required minimum distribution (RMD) in the year you convert, you must do so before converting to a Roth IRA.
RMD amounts are not eligible to convert to a Roth IRA.
Generally, converted assets in the Roth IRA must remain there for at least five years to avoid penalties and taxes.
A distribution from a Roth IRA is tax-free and penalty-free provided that the five-year aging requirement has been satisfied and at least one of the following conditions has been met: you reach age 59½, die, become disabled, or make a qualified first-time home purchase.
Is the bold above the penalty you're asking about ???
Also, NO RMD for 2020. Waived by the CARES ACT. Perhaps there is more regarding this in the CARES ACT.
Catch

I measure portfolios with max 60% in stocks against my 2 long term funds.
For a portfolio of 30-40% stocks, I use VWIAX.
For 1 portfolio of 60-65 stocks, I use PRWCX.
So VWIAX VS CFTAX shows that VWIAX was a better choice since inception in 2012 (link)
CAGR...VWIAX 5.85%...CFTAX 5.67%
SD.........VWIAX 4.49%...CFTAX 5.1% (lower is better)
Worse year + Max draw...VWIAX leads by a lot
Sharpe+Sortino...VWIAX leads
CFTAX ER=0.69%...VWIAX ER=0.16%
BUT
If you test it for 3 years CFTAX comes ahead (link) with similar performance but only about half of the SD=volatility.

In a recent thread a contributor indicates they don't want to increase their income if it raised their marginal tax rate,I can sort of understand not wanting to work harder doing physicaL LABOR OR WORKING MORE HOURS and have the govt take more money from you but when it comes to investing I don't get it.If the govt takes a bigger share but you make and take home more money are you not better off?

......I'll chime in: we are in a hybrid situation. I'm retired, wife still works. Personal circumstances matter a lot. We could not live HERE in the 50th State without:
a) giving up some privacy
b) effectively getting a subsidy from extended family, who live with us. Rent, food. gas. We share all of that.
We don't want to bump ourselves into a higher tax bracket. For several years, on our tax returns, we have come out OWING ZERO TAX. If we had not very much more income to report, it might negatively affect our ability to even do the little bit of investing we do, for heirs as well as for ourselves. And the dividends and capital gains we get are non-taxable for us, in the lowest bracket.
We've paid-in for years and years. It's time the rules worked to OUR advantage, rather than the billionaires and millionaires: every bit of ALL of my earnings have always been subject to Soc. Tax. For them? They pay-in only until their income reaches the legal upper limit. These days, it's something like $127,000. (Hey, politicians! REMOVE THE CAP!) The crisis with SS is manufactured.

If I am making more money I expect to be paying more taxes. I can think of far worse things to worry about in the prime of my career than whether I'm bumped into a higher tax bracket this year or not. Being debt-free, living within my means, and not being flamboyant with my money goes a long way to retirement savings, even if I might take an income hit at some point down the road if/when I retire from the uni.
Sure, I try to offset cap gains/losses year-to-year, but I find that more about prudent investing than tax planning per se. Besides, it's kind of fun.

I think of net income in terms of total return. Investment gains are often part of taxable income. Marginal tax brackets do increase the drag on total return or better said marginal tax brackets diminish total return.
Most of us need a certain income to afford our life style. Recent data shows that ninety percent of income earners spend more than 100% of their earning so they need to take on additional debt as a means of affording their lifestyle. That math doesn't work.
Income graph:
https://screencast.com/t/rUJS2IeZ6ah
To your second point:
I remember having a conversation with a colleague who couldn't understand why I chose to retire early. My point to him was that he was working for the difference between what he would make (his work income) and what he would receive in retirement (pension income). I further pointed out that he could go elsewhere and work another full time or part time job making his total return (net taxes) much higher. Obviously by staying with his job he was adding years of service to his pension making his eventual pension income higher.
I consider taxes with regard to tax loss harvesting, Roth conversions, and potential qualifications for various benefits (HSA contributions, ACA Insurance subsidies, etc)
Taxes and tax brackets do have many nuisances (tax rules) beyond the marginal taxes brackets. I have always thought a simple flat tax would level the playing field.

If you have room in your income tax bracket to add income to that bracket (the 12% federal income tax bracket is my threshold) consider doing Roth conversions with some of your deferred IRAs.
A dropped of 12% (we have already experience this from the market high) or more in these holdings would allow you to lock in this "paper loss" by doing a roth conversion.
State and Federal taxes are paid on these conversions 1 year from now (April 2021) providing time for those investments to potentially recover and these gains would be tax free gains from the date of conversion.
I consider this similar to the tax loss harvesting strategy used in taxable accounts, but instead you are managing market temporary pullbacks as "Market Loss Harvesting" in your tax deferred accounts.
Manage taxes will help you manage your total return.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000168386320003065/f3426d1.htm
97 1 f3426d1.htm 497
Janus Investment Fund
Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund
Supplement dated April 14, 2020
to Currently Effective Prospectuses
Effective immediately, the prospectuses for Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund (the “Fund”) are amended as follows:
1.Under “Management” in the Fund Summary section of the Fund’s prospectuses, the following paragraph replaces the corresponding paragraph in its entirety:
Portfolio Managers: Theodore M. Thome, CFA, is Portfolio Manager of the equity portion of the Fund, which he has managed or co-managed since July 2010. John Kerschner, CFA, is Executive Vice President and Co-Portfolio Manager of the fixed-income portion of the Fund, which he has co-managed since August 2018. John Lloyd is Executive Vice President and Co-Portfolio Manager of the fixed-income portion of the Fund, which he has co-managed since August 2018. Seth Meyer, CFA, is Executive Vice President and Co-Portfolio Manager of the fixed-income portion of the Fund, which he has co-managed since August 2018.
2.Under “Investment Personnel” in the Management of the Funds section of the Fund’s prospectuses, the following information replaces the corresponding information in its entirety:
Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund
Equity Investments
Theodore M. Thome, CFA, is Co-Portfolio Manager of Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund, which he has co-managed since July 2010. He joined Perkins in September 2002 as a research analyst covering the healthcare industry. Mr. Thome holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Life Science from the United States Military Academy at West Point and a Master of Business Administration with concentrations in finance and accounting from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Mr. Thome holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Effective immediately, all references to Alec Perkins are deleted from the Fund’s prospectuses.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1657267/000089418920002691/millerhowardfundstrust497e.htm
497 1 millerhowardfundstrust497e.htm 497E
Miller/Howard Income-Equity Fund
Class Ticker Symbol
Class I MHIEX
Adviser Share Class MHIDX
(A series of Miller/Howard Funds Trust)
Supplement dated April 14, 2020 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and
Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated February 28, 2020
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Based upon a recommendation by MHI Funds, LLC (the “Adviser”), the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Miller/Howard Funds Trust (the “Trust”) has approved a plan of liquidation for the Miller/Howard Income-Equity Fund (the “Fund”) as a series of the Trust, pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated on or around June 15, 2020 (the “Liquidation” or the “Liquidation Date”). The Adviser has determined that the Fund has limited prospects for meaningful growth. As a result, the Adviser and the Board believe that the Liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of shareholders.
In anticipation of the Liquidation, effective as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (“close of business”) on April 14, 2020, the Fund will be closed to new investments. In addition, effective April 15, 2020, the Adviser may begin an orderly transition of the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and cash equivalents and the Fund may cease investing its assets in accordance with its investment objective and policies.
Shareholders may voluntarily redeem shares of the Fund, as described in the Fund’s Prospectus, before the Liquidation Date. Shareholders remaining in the Fund just prior to the Liquidation Date may bear increased transaction fees in connection with the disposition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings. If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction by the close of business on June 15, 2020, your shares will be automatically redeemed on the Liquidation Date. Shareholders will receive a liquidating distribution in an amount equal to the net asset value of their Fund shares, less any required withholding. For shareholders that hold their shares in a taxable account, the redemption of Fund shares will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares (i.e., a sale that may result in a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes). Your net cash proceeds from the Fund, less any required withholding, will be sent to the address of record.
If you hold your shares in an individual retirement account (an “IRA”), you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA in order to maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent at 1-845-684-5730 prior to June 15, 2020 of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, the redemption proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you. Checks will be issued to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date.
Please contact the Fund at 1-845-684-5730 if you have any questions.
This supplement should be retained with your Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI for future reference.

Hi @MikeM,
I'm thinking there are ways a retired investor, like myself, can manage their portfolio through troubling times and still over time come out ahead. No doubt, you have been exploring ideas and thoughts as to how you might better govern. I'm by no means throwing cold water on your idea. I encourage you if you feel this is a better way for you to govern then back test your idea. This might not be as hard as you think. You know where you stand with current positions and your portfolio's performance. Now, all you have to do is figure out how your portfolio would have performed if it was configured based upon the sell stop orders on the proposed selected etf's incorporated within the portfolio.
For me, I'm still with my multi fund sleeve management system and using my operating base asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity which in order to play the anticipated rebound from the recent downdraft I have moved to a temporary allocation of 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity with a rebalance threshold set at +(or -) 2% from the neutral weightings. Thus far, I'm performing pretty much like a conservative asset allocation fund. As I write, I am now down less than 10% from my 52 week high and my portfolio is generating a good income stream. I plan to let my overweight equity allocation (now at 48%) run until my barometer scores the S&P 500 Index as overbought.
A fund that many like on the board, but I do not own, is VWINX. It is down ytd -3.84% with a five year average retrun of +5.24% with a yield of 3.1%. For me, come June when CFTAX makes it's mid year distribution ... I'm going to increase my position in it as I have a CD maturing towards the end of May. CTFAX ytd is up 6.55% with a five year return of 5.71%. It generates its distributions from both its bond positions along with capital gain distributions coming mostly from moving in and out of stock positions. You might wish to study this fund because it uses a similar strategy as to what you have described; but with a little different twist.
Best of luck to you. I'm sure you will come up with something tailored to fit your style of investing.
Skeet

Reading is one of our main forms of entertainment these days. Reading Financial News comes with bias that frames are thinking.
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/04/06/how-to-read-financial-news-coronavirus-confirmation-bias-and-political-bias/

Here is link to reference prescient article:
https://alphaarchitect.com/2020/02/13/price-etfs-and-bond-market-liquidity/

Acutely painful to watch.
https://twitter.com/alphaarchitect/status/1249705104795750400?s=20
or
https://alphaarchitect.com/2020/04/13/compound-your-knowledge-ep-28-bond-etf-discussion-with-jon-seed/

I remember Cinnamon very well from years ago. His fund looked good when the market crashed and then it looks pretty bad. How long can a high % in cash works?
The following is from the last report. As expected PVCMX had over 92% in cash on 1/1/2020 and probably in 2019 too.
The Palm Valley Capital Fund gained 0.79% for the quarter ending March 31, 2020, while the S&P Small Cap 600 and the Morningstar Small Cap Indexes lost 32.65% and 31.61%, respectively. The Fund began the quarter with 92.4% of its assets held in cash and equivalents and ended the period with 52.0% cash.
I will pass on this fund..."fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me."