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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Weekly market watch reads - Keep politics out of your stock portfolio — plus other top investing tip
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/keep-politics-out-of-your-stock-portfolio-plus-other-top-investing-tips-2020-02-16
    Keep politics out of your stock portfolio — plus other top investing tips
    Weekly recaps and couple of interesting reads marketwatch
    Enjoy rest weekend
    Typically good advice not to follow the front page when drawing up your investment plans.
    I'm not sure I see the value in discussing my investment ideas with people just because they disagree with me about politics. Most people don't study on the subject enough to have anything to add to the conversation besides opinions.
    But, I will say, the current resident of the White House has been good for my small allocation to gold.
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    Feb 14, 2020 , Reuters Feb 14 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway:
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY TAKES SHARE STAKE OF 18.9 MILLION SHARES IN KROGER- SEC FILING
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN GENERAL MOTORS CO BY 3.8% TO 75.0 MILLION SHARES - SEC FILING
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN RH BY 41.4% TO 1.7 MILLION SHARES
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY UPS SHARE STAKE IN OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP BY 153.5% TO 18.9 MILLION SHARES
    * BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC - CHANGE IN HOLDINGS ARE AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2019
  • Buying Gold: Physical Vs ETFs
    As to buying gold bullion, in my example; non-numismatic, as with American Gold Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf, 1 oz.
    One of the lowest cost Canadian Maple Leaf 1 oz, .999 bullion coins that I may purchase today (Feb. 16, 2020) has a 4.29% premium over the gold spot price. With the assumption that one may anticipate a 2-5% premium to buy and the same going into the sell side; a bullion purchase should have these numbers in mind.
    To me, the equivalent is a load to buy/sell a mutual fund/etf.
    Assuming whatever performance with a fund over a 10 year or whatever period, and using the above percentage range for bullion buy/sell using 4% for easy numbers; one would be buying a fund at a 4% premium and selling at a 4% discount. Front and back load city, eh?
    Have a good remainder.
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    My notes after reading The Investor’s Manifesto by William Bernstein.
    Over periods of more than a year, stock and asset prices tend to mean revert. An asset class with an above-average past return will tend to deliver a below-average future return and vice versa. In tax-sheltered accounts, letting the losses and gains run for two to three years before rebalancing seems to be the optimal strategy.
    Rebalance your portfolio approximately once every few years. In taxable portfolios, do so even less frequently. Rebalancing your portfolio more than once per year is probably too often.
  • Harry Dent’s Dismal Record
    Many predictions made by market prognosticators are inaccurate. Unfortunately, many investors have short memories. https://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2020/01/02/forecasting-follies-2020/
  • Barron’s Top Fund Families of 2019
    Damn near worthless - “The primary ranking focuses on one-year relative performance ...”
    Even the Kiplingers article some time ago (which received considerable heat here) looked at funds all the way back to their inception date - far better than looking at 1 year.
    Hey Barrons - How about taking into consideration :
    - Years in business
    - Long term performance
    - Manager turnover
    - Talent / average tenure
    - Expenses
    - Customer satisfaction ratings
    - Down market performance / preservation of capital
    - Governance scores
    - Type and variety of offerings
    - Account minimums
  • Barron’s Top Fund Families of 2019
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-fund-families-for-2020-barrons-annual-ranking-51581711228
    Barron’s Top Fund Families of 2019
    Good years are great. Investors have reveled in more than a decade’s worth of markets marching higher in lockstep. Last year, the S&P 500 index returned 31%, international markets climbed more than 20%, corporate bonds soared 14%, and even Treasuries gained nearly 8%. That was certainly good news for index investors, who went along for the ride. But it’s a high bar for active managers, most of whom still struggle to beat their benchmarks.
  • VLAAX
    Whoever is responsible for bringing this to my attention, I thank you. Really good long-term record, and it's just on fire out of the gate in 2020. VLAAX Value Line Asset Allocation, in the 50-70% stocks category at Morningstar. One drawback: high Expense Ratio. But I've seen worse. Our plan is to put wife's old 403b in this fund, and not worry about it, forever. We just mailed the paperwork.
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Here's something a little different!
    Capital One is offering a cash bonus of $200 on their new 360 Performance Savings Account. Deposit $10,000 within 10 days of account opening and you will receive a $200 cash bonus into your account after 90 days.
    The current APY for this account is 1.8%. With a $200 cash bonus on $10,000 that boosts the effective 12 month return to 3.8%. Not bad for an FDIC insured investment. I've already taken advantage of this offer. Here's the link:
    https://www.capitalone.com/save1000/
    Just received my $200 cash bonus after keeping $10,000 on deposit for 90 days. Well done Capital One! The APY for the period dropped from 1.8% to 1.7% but still a very nice 9.8% risk-free annualized return (bonus plus interest) for the 90 days.
    Chase Bank is offering a $150 bonus on $10,000 with similar terms. You will lose the bonus if you close your account within 6 months, however.
    https://accounts.chase.com/consumer/banking/online/seocombo
  • FPA International Value and World Value mutual funds.
    Polar Capital Holdings plc to Acquire FPA’s International Value and World Value Strategies.
    https://www.polarcapitalfunds.com/About-Polar-Capital/Press-Releases/Post/3240/Polar_Capital_to_acquire_International_and_World_equity_strategies
    Not sure if others find the above weird and not typical of FPA.
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    BEKA is trailing the SP500(VFIAX) for 1-3-5-10 years. See (chart)
    SP500 has higher performance but also better SD, Sharpe and Sortino. See PortVis (link).
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.

    The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
    I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
    In the past, you said several times that
    1) I will never retire but I did
    2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
    and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
    I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

    @Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.
    No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
    My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
    I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.
    FD, please take a breath, relax and re-read my post. I did not comment on your investing. The correction I posted about was a MARKET correction, about the OP. I had the misfortune to post after a derogative post. My post had no quote attached. No apology needed.
  • Janus' The Organics and The Obesity ETFs to liquidate
    Not healthy....
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000119312520036572/d882023d497.htm
    497 1 d882023d497.htm JANUS DETROIT STREET TRUST
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    The Organics ETF
    The Obesity ETF
    Supplement dated February 14, 2020
    to Currently Effective Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate The Organics ETF (”ORG”) and The Obesity ETF (“SLIM” and, together with ORG, the “Funds”), effective on or about March 17, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about March 12, 2020, the Funds will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Funds will be halted prior to market open on or about March 13, 2020. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about March 18, 2020. Termination of the Funds is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (“NASDAQ”) on March 12, 2020, each Fund will undertake the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Funds holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with their respective investment objectives and strategies. During this period, the Funds are likely to incur higher tracking error than is typical for the Funds. Furthermore, during the time between market open on March 13, 2020 and the Liquidation Date, because shares will not be traded on NASDAQ, there may not be a trading market for the Funds’ shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Funds on NASDAQ until the market close on March 12, 2020 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Funds. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Funds may or may not, depending upon each Fund’s respective circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.
    The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
    I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
    In the past, you said several times that
    1) I will never retire but I did
    2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
    and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
    I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

    @Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.
    No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
    My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
    I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    @Old_Skeet I turn 70 this month and am about 15 years into retirement having taken advantage of a downsizing "early out" opportunity in 2005. My stock weighting has varied between about 40% and 60% during that time.
    My portfolio percentages will probably be in the neighborhood of 55% stocks, 40% bonds and 5% Other after the new cash arrives. Most of that new cash will likely be used to increase existing positions in VWINX, WFLEX, IOFIX, ZEOIX, and SEMPX. (I'm thinking about adding to RPHYX too given its recently improving performance.) My tendency to overweight stocks (vs my current 50/50 default mix) may well persist until 10 year treasury rates move meaningfully higher...maybe into the 3 to 4% range will get my attention (of course something else may come to convince me to abandon my current overweight to stocks!). My present plan is to keep the default mix at 50/50 at least until I turn 80 unless my health status declines significantly.
    I have incorporated a sub-portfolio within my ongoing mutual fund portfolio over the past year and a half. Its settled out at 22.5% of the total portfolio (counting the new cash). Its 1/2 income oriented and 1/2 "income with growth" oriented and is populated with individual dividend paying stocks (3%+ dividends), REITS, CEFs, BDCs, and LPs. The individual holding sizes are bit sized enough that it could be used to engage in some "spiffing" although my current plan is to invest for income and long term capital gains.....Anyway, your comments and perspectives are appreciated.
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/401-k-hit-records-workers-112754438.html
    NEW YORK (AP) — How's your 401(k) doing?
    President Donald Trump likes to ask that question around the country, sometimes throwing out big gains like 90% or 95%. The average 401(k) did indeed hit a record last year, although its growth was considerably less than that.
    The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400
  • *
    DHEAX beats DBLSX for 1 month and all the way to 3 years (chart).
    DHEAX has also better Sharpe + Sortino (PortVis)
    Both funds invest at high % in securitized/MBS, both have mostly IG(investment grade) bond rating.
    Just my opinion: DHEAX is a better fund