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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Did Mutual Funds Perform as Expected During the Mini-Crash
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/970581/did-mutual-funds-perform-as-expected-during-the-mini-crash
    Did Mutual Funds Perform as Expected During the Mini-Crash?
    For the most part, yes.
    John Rekenthaler
    Mar 6, 2020
    Open Questions
    It’s no secret that the S&P 500 dropped 11% last week. Less discussed has been how that downturn affected funds. Did any stock fund categories escape the damage? Did bond funds and alternative funds protect against the carnage? Should 401(k) investors be pleased with their target-date funds? Finally, how did active equity funds fare?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Do the problems in the credit markets ( what took them so long to wake up?) today concern anybody with positions in DHEIX JMSIx PTAX or JMUTX ?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/credit-market-has-worst-day-in-a-decade-as-virus-fuels-selling?srnd=markets-vp&sref=OzMbRRMQ
    Of course after several days of analysis I just added to my positions
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    best site for current cases etc
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
    This site also has hundreds of other "meters" like number of cigarettes smoked worldwide today!
    Bloomberg news reports that Chinese airlines are starting to fill up again.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/travel-demand-is-rebounding-in-china-as-virus-worry-recedes?sref=OzMbRRMQ
    If this continues in China without a rebound in cases, it will be good news and an indication that the effects with strict quarantines can be contained and last about 2 to 3 months.
    OF course Western countries may not be as effective in containment.
    In central Connecticut ( no cases reported in the state yet) I saw one person at grocery store with a mask, but no Purell rubbing alcohol or gloves anywhere to be found
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    FPFIX is a pretty good fund invested mainly in securitized and low duration=1.7 and a good "cash sub". Another similar fund is DHEIX with duration=1.4. Both invested mostly in IG bond rating. I like DHEIX a bit more because it's yield = 3.9 while FPFIX = 2.6.
    Securitized is my favorite category for years because deals better with rates.
    I ran it thru Port Vis (link)
    and DHEIX looks better for performance, SD and Sharpe
  • American Beacon liquidates three funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000080959320000021/0131_fye_funds_liquidation.htm
    American Beacon Acadian Emerging Markets Managed Volatility Fund
    American Beacon Crescent Short Duration High Income Fund
    American Beacon GLG Total Return Fund
    497 1 0131_fye_funds_liquidation.htm
    Supplement dated March 5, 2020
    to the
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectuses dated May 31, 2019, as previously amended or supplemented
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon Acadian Emerging Markets Managed Volatility Fund (“Acadian Fund”), the American Beacon Crescent Short Duration High Income Fund (“Crescent Fund”), and the American Beacon GLG Total Return Fund (the “GLG Fund,” and together with the Acadian Fund and the Crescent Fund, the “Funds”) on or about April 30, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”), upon the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Funds’ investment manager.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, each Fund is closed to new shareholders. To prepare for the liquidation of the Funds, Acadian Asset Management LLC, the sub-advisor to the Acadian Fund, Crescent Capital Group LP, the sub-advisor to the Crescent Fund, and GLG LLC, the sub-advisor to the GLG Fund, may need to increase the portion of the relevant Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for that Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Funds may no longer be pursuing their respective investment objectives during this transition. Each Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders who have not previously redeemed or exchanged all of their shares on or about the Liquidation Date. These shareholder redemptions may be taxable events. Once the shareholder redemptions are complete, the Funds will terminate.
    Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of a Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another American Beacon Fund under certain limited circumstances. You also may redeem your shares of a Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such exchanges and redemptions. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders.
    In connection with its liquidation, each Fund may declare taxable distributions of its net investment income and net capital gain in advance of its Liquidation Date.
    If you own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, 401(k) or 403(b) account, you should consult your tax adviser to discuss a Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of a Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
    ***********************************************************
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • BIAWX
    I like concentrated funds as well, it says to me that I am getting the managers best ideas toward pursuing the funds objective(s). I also don't expect a large growth fund to hold too much cash or any bonds unless they are of the convertible type.
    American Tower (AMT) pays a dividend but dividend growth and/or dividend income is not a stated objective of BIAWX. From their website "The fund seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in the common stock of mid- and large-cap companies that, in the manager’s view, effectively implement sustainable business strategies to drive their prospects for future earnings growth."
    As David has mentioned, they just impress me as thoughtful and prudent advisors.
    Brown Advisory
    I forgot to mention that I only wish it was available NTF at Fidelity. However since it currently isn't that requires me to be thoughtful and prudent as well.
  • Dow soars nearly 1,200 points as investors weigh Biden resurgence, efforts to guard economies agains
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/04/dow-markets-biden-super-tuesday-coronavirus/4950498002/
    Dow soars nearly 1,200 points as investors weigh Biden resurgence, efforts to guard economies against coronavirus
    U.S. stocks soared Wednesday, with a strong showing by former Vice President Joe Biden in the Democratic primaries buoying investors who view him as a more business-friendly alternative to Bernie Sanders.
  • Munis not just for millionaires
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/munis--not-just-for-millionaires-54421.html
    Munis, Not Just For Millionaires
    MARCH 3, 2020 • DANIEL RABASCO
    Municipal bonds (commonly known as “munis”) are debt securities issued by state and local governments, and their agencies and authorities, to fund projects ranging from hospitals and schools to highways and bridges. Munis have been widely viewed as being primarily attractive to investors in high income tax brackets as the interest payments received from the bonds are typically exempt from federal and, in some cases, state and local taxes. But munis—which in 2018 constituted about $3.8 trillion in total assets with 54,000 issuers and one million securities—aren’t strictly for the affluent.
  • One stunning chart shows how severe this selloff has been: Morning Brief

    To stop spreading the virus China they lock down the entire city and it slows the spread somewhat. Cannot image this can be done in a democratic society of large cities in US or Europe.
    Lockdowns may not work and may even be counterproductive.
    You can't put a ban in place before there's a reason to put a ban in place. And by then, it's too late. What's more ... people will try to sneak out of the city.
    ... That can make it much harder to track potential cases and contact, which is one of the most effective ways to contain this outbreak.
    https://www.npr.org/2020/01/25/799470705/a-travel-ban-to-contain-the-coronavirus-could-worsen-conditions-in-wuhan
    Not large cities, but Italy has been quarantining several smaller northern towns.
    A dozen towns ... were put in lockdown (and were made so-called “red zones” and quarantined) just over a week ago as the Italian government under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte sought to halt the spread. The measures are due to be in place until at least March 8.
    There are other “yellow zones” in Italy where schools are closed, and sports events and religious and cultural spaces have been postponed or canceled.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-next-seven-days-seen-as-decisive-for-italy.html
  • Federal Reserve cuts benchmark rate by .5%
    A dog chasing it's tail, IMHO. But, this will cause some short term investment thinking.
    On the other hand, investment grade bonds should prove to have a decent week; barring a "whatever" moment.
    Article, if you choose to know more
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......
    Big U.S. equity upward hop today, March 3, 2020, eh?
    So, is/are the markets/central banks/big money doing the first song of "Musical Chairs" today? Or is this a so called dead cat bounce? Or a quasi reversion to/of/for the mean?
    Is most equity fairly priced for a Monday, Mar. 2 close; with more up for, how long?
    Perhaps some equity markets are fairly priced for what appears to be many bumps, curves and all sorts of disruptions in the investing roads ahead.
    Maybe just the machines playing online games among themselves.
    I'm not convinced the equity markets will end this week at a higher level than where it started.
    Good Evening,
    Catch
  • Retirees: How to Protect Your RRSP From a Stock Market Crash!
    https://www.fool.ca/2020/02/29/retirees-how-to-protect-your-rrsp-from-a-stock-market-crash/
    (Canadian article)
    Retirees: How to Protect Your RRSP From a Stock Market Crash!
    This week, markets have been crashing worldwide on fears that the ongoing COVID-19 spread will massively impact the global economy. Already, we’re seeing supply chains severely disrupted, as Chinese factories shut down and buyers like Apple tell investors to brace for weaker-than-anticipated earnings. For retirees who are banking on their RRSP to carry them through their golden years, it’s a scary time. While Canadian markets aren’t down as much as U.S. markets, we’re beginning to feel the heat at home, and virtually all equity markets are down worldwide.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    With respect to Central and South America, here are elected excerpts from a current article from the AP via the San Francisco Chronicle:
    Officials in Ecuador on Saturday confirmed the first case of the new coronavirus in the South American nation, while Mexico reported two more cases and Brazil one more.
    It was the second case in South America, following a Brazilian case reported on Wednesday. The Sao Paulo state health department reported another Brazilian case later on Saturday — a person who had recently visited Italy.
    Mexico's Health Department said late Friday that a new case had been confirmed in Mexico City, adding to the first two confirmed cases announced earlier that day. One of those was also in the capital, and the other in the northwestern state of Sinaloa.
    The governor of the northern border state of Coahuila said Saturday that federal health officials had confirmed a fourth case, in the city of Torreon: a 20-year-old woman who traveled to Europe, including Milan, Italy, in January and February and returned to Mexico in recent days.
    If you don't proactively test for the virus then you have no idea if it's present or not. How many of those "Southern and equator" countries do you suppose have the resources for, and actually are, actively testing?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Analysis at the end, after the performance.

    Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020

    Multi
    PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
    PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
    JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
    JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
    PTIAX….3.7….1.0
    Multi(high % securitized)
    PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0
    EIXIX…..1.6….-0.1
    VCFAX...1.75...-0.05
    IOFIX.....2.85....+0.1
    SEMMX...1.8....0    (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    DHEIX….1.4….0.35 (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    HY Munis
    PHMIX…..4.6.....1
    NHMAX....5.35.....1
    MMHAX....4.15.…..1
    OPTAX.....6.3.....1.
    ORNAX….5.3……1.3
    GHYAX......4.4......1
    GWMEX….5.3…...1.5  (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    NVHAX……2.8……0.4  (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    USIBX.......3.4.....0.7
    BCOIX......3.5…...0.9
    PINCX……3.5..…0.9
    BND….......3.7…....1.1
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    EIFAX.......-1.05.....-1.6
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    IISIX..........0.4....-0.6
    PUTIX......-0.1….-0.2
    PAJZX……-1.45….-3.6
    HY +EM
    HYG.........-1.75.....-2.6
    PHIYX.......-1.5.....-2.4
    ZEOIX……-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY, 3 year SDCorporate
    PIGIX….…3.2.….-0.15
    VCIT……..3.4…..0.8
    Preferred
    PFINX…...-0.4……-3.2
    OTHER
    FXAIX.…..-8.3..…-11.4  (SP500)
    PCI………-5.4... -7.6  (CEF)
    “CASH SUB" (most with 3 years SD under 1 or close to it)
    SEMMX...1.8....0      
    DHEIX….1.4….0.35
    ZEOIX…-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY)
    DBLSX…0.75….0.1
    LALDX….1.0….0.1
    SSTHX….-0.85….-1.2  (ST HY)
    MWCIX….1.0.….-0.1
    PMZIX….1.3….0.25
    BTMIX….1.3.…0.3 (ST Muni but I prefer NVHAX for LT)
    Observations:
    Last week was a clear way to separate the winner from the loser. Rates were down dramatically, stocks are in correction and panic is in the air. Since last week was such a major one I decided to post about YTD + one week.
    Multi- mixed bag last week.  PIMIX+PUCZX lost badly while PTIAX shined. Most in securitized did OK
    HY Munis continues to be a great category with 1+% for the week and very strong YTD and much better than Inter-Term higher rated funds.
    Inter term – did well as expected when rates are down
    Bank loans – as expected were down but not as much as HY.  I use this category only when I know rates are going up.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and not impressive which tells you it’s usually not a good category LT
    HY+EM – both lost money last week and not doing well YTD.
    Corp – This category did well last week and YTD but PIGIX didn’t do well last week.
    SP500-in correction
    PCI-as expected from a CEF it was down last week.  At times like this CEFs are exposed.
    “CASH” Sub-a unique category to make more money with minimal risk at SD less than 1.  It is obvious the best funds(SEMMX,DHEIX,PMZIX) are mostly in securitized which is my favorite category anyway. DHEIX has 80+% in investment-grade bonds if you like "safer" bonds.  SEMMX has the best peformance. PMZIX has done well YTD but not as good as the first 2 for 3 years.
    ===========================
    Generic Views
    My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
    HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.  OPTAX has done best YTD
    The Multi funds I’m interested are SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,PIMIX,PUCZX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX.  SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7. VCFAX+EIXIX are pretty good and invest at 85-90+% in securitized.  JMUTX+JMSIX are more diversified, actually, JMSIX was a nice surprise of losing just -0.1%. PIMIX+PUCZX are funds with moving parts and did worse than others, they are now going to my second-tier list. PTIAX has the best momo YTD so I have to pay attention.
    “CASH” Sub-Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX(ZEOIX is off the list)  as a cash sub LT, see 3 year SD<1(link).  In taxable you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT
    IISIX disappointed.  Last year It looked like a better option for 3 years but VCFAX is the winner.  Again, funds with too many moving parts(PIMIX,PUCZX,PUTIX,PAJZX,IISIX) didn’t do well at this time of need.
  • Need an opinion
    @Bobpa, did you get out of Intelligent Portfolio? I meet with my Schwab guy this week and that is one of the topics I will discuss with him.
    Hi @Derf. I am not in a target date fund... yet. I have 1/2 my IRA in the Schwab robo but my plan is to reduce that or even get out altogether. When I do a big chunk will go to the TRP 2020 fund.
    No major storms in the Rochester area. In fact it hasn't been to bad a winter here. Forecast is mid to upper 40s the next 10 days. Hoping for an early start to golf season this year!
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Well OK then. Cool. He's got it all covered. Moron. But of course I'm a scientist and not a businessperson.
    Government COVID-19 plan
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Tis likely that you have a site or sites you may prefer, if you're curious about changing circumstances regarding COVID-19.
    This news link is decent, although not fully inclusive of all changes. Note: depending upon your browser; you may have to refresh the page for the most current info (age of data shown just above first pic).
    Two other sites I've been using, which are using data base graphics. You'll have to "play" with these to discover how the site functions.
    John Hopkins
    BNO, Netherlands Note: site updates have slowed in the past several days.
    Add: The COVID-19 remains a concern for equity investments and a likely positive for investment grade bonds, in particular U.S. gov't. issues. Events and travel continue to be curtailed, be it government or private sector. These among many other reactions from global citizens will have an impact, yes? So, GDP/growth going forward will take a hit, IMHO. No fancy math required. Consumer spending in this country is a large portion of what "makes things go 'round".
    A view from the past week ending is interesting. I don't know whether the "end of the month window dressing" is any longer something that active managed funds use or do. Although I suspect this attempt is no longer valid with so many other products and players in the markets, in particular, the algo driven investments. Must have been a choice of play....the large cap growth area. But, watching the U.S. equity markets on Friday had a few areas that were interesting. Mid-day on Friday found growth equity clawing its way for periods of positive direction.
    The top 10 positive returns for active managed U.S. equity funds on Friday for Fidelity were all large cap growth. Hmmmm.
    Bonds for the past week. Although I.G. bond prices were positive for the week, a lot of the bump arrived on Friday. I expected larger price movements for all days of the week. Also, that as U.S. equity had a bump in the last 30 minutes of Friday, bonds also found some selling from profit taking or whatever ???
    Also, that China is supposedly opening some manufacturing. 'Course, who knows.
    Be well,
    Catch